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Latest data from the U.S. Treasury shows it has collected $63 billion in tariffs over the preceding 12 months. Even though there is no agreement on trade with China, president Trump says the U.S. is benefitting from higher tariffs by tens of billions of dollars. In May he estimated tariff revenues could reach $100 billion.This report in the WSJ says this could happen if the the new tariffs of 10% on additional $300 Chinese goods imported to U.S. goes into effect on September 1. This is likely considering that China sees this in different terms than the U.S. such as its sovereignty, whereas the U.S. sees it simply in terms of fair trade. With new elections China may be simply putting things off till the election is decided as Mr. Trump has pointed out. The tally of what the U.S. Treasury gets annually if $100 billion is generated in tariffs goes something like this. Of this $30 billion was generated previously for the U.S. government, so the incremental amount is $70 billion. Of this about $16 billion goes to offset the effect of loss of farm exports to farmers, mainly soyabeans exports to China, through a rescue fund. This leaves additional $54 billion for the U.S. Treasury. Money that could conceivably be put back into infrastructure that the U.S. badly needs in mobile and fixed to improve internet speeds and move up from its low rankings compared to China and other countries. A WSJ report this week shows Germany in worse shape than the U.S., both countries having dismal status in mobile infrastructure- the U.S. at No. 37, and Australia No. 4, Canada No. 3, and even Croatia No. 9. This throws some light on why this trade dispute has become intractable, for China the right of a sovereign nation to move past middle income status even as its telecom technology with Huawei 5G is top class, and for the U.S. the right not to fall behind in advanced technologies such as Telecom. It is also why one hears so much about Huawei and why it has become a flashpoint of the conflict in trade and trade practices. It is thought Mr. Trump is conducting this trade dispute. Yet less known is the fact that prominent Republicans in Congress such as Senator Warner have stated on television talk shows that they are concerned Mr. Trump may give up too much in negotiations that lead to the U.S. not being able to compete in telecom advanced technologies that matter for competitiveness and for national security. What was treated by Bush and Obama administrations routinely without much attention to the consequences is now a top concern for Republicans and others in Congress and business. ...

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Lost in media reporting the net US exports increase of 5% as US asserted it's position as a leading exporter in 2025 has boosted second quarter US GDP growth to 3%. 

In tariff negotiations  and the agreements with European Union and Japan US has asserted it's position as a leading exporting nation, a position it held since the 1920's that was neglected through the ineptitude of previous presidents.

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U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was the negotiator who tackled Japan's huge trade surplus in the eighties under president Reagan. In 1985 he was the Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan. He negotiating a trade deal with China that includes U.S. tariffs on Chinese products. Here he tells the incoming Biden administration that the tariffs were a good idea in the American interest, and should remain in place till China reduces the huge trade surplus with the U.S. Lighthizer says "we want a China policy that thinks about the geopolitical competition between the United States and an adversary- an economic adversary." As this report says the cleavage with China has widened since then with the the virus that started in Wuhan, China, then spread to the U.S., killing more than 387,000 Americans and with 23 million people affected by the virus. Lighthizer has serious questions about the approach of the Biden team to seek consultations with allies in Europe and Asia. With his long experience  he is one of the very few who understand how things work. He says the U.S. started dialogues in the 90's. Nothing happened. "All of them were just a waste of time," says Lighthizer. Other countries could slow or veto U.S. actions. This is why the new incoming administration needs to show it has learned from history. In the trade negotiations with Japan the approach taken by Lighthizer worked. The U.S. can only not listen to his advice at its peril. ...

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Protests in Hannover, Germany, as U.S. president Obama visits the Hannover Trade Fair. Protesters oppose the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Treaty promoted by president Obama. A recent Bertelsmann Stiftung research institute poll shows larger rejection of the treaty in Germany than a mid-Feb. poll by German broadcaster ZDF showing about half of Germans opposed. Interviews with a dozen protesters show suspicion about large corporate interests, and fears that the talks are secretive, a sense that the interests of ordinary people would be neglected. Elections in the U.S. in 2016 have shown a surge in sentiment opposing trade agreements.

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As part of the trade deal with the Trump administration China agreed to buy $54 billion of oil and liquified natural gas from the U.S. by the end of 2021. This is showing up in U.S. oil making up 7% of China's imports by mid September 2020 from 0.4% in January. By the endo of October forecasts show U.S. exporting 700,000 barrels a day to China. The U.S. is displacing Saudi and Middle East oil as Saudi exports now make up 15% of China's oil imports from 19%. This also shows that president Trump's trade deals are working to help balance trade with China and remove the disadvantageous position the U.S. was placed in by three previous administrations.

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Plan B for US president DJT on Tariffs - Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to place a 150 day 15% tariff. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Trade Investigations under Section 301. Much of this set of laws are already in place and being used by the US. A law passed in 1930 is another avenue for tariffs Section 338 of ther Tariff Act of 1930. The US government and US president DJT could also have Congress enact a new law as it has majority in both the Senate and the House and the president could make acase for the reasonable use of tariffs with the EU and Japan having taken advantage of trade to the disadvantage of the US. There is also broad support for fentanyl action by the president using economic action on tariffs on nations Canada, Mexico, China that continue to let the flow of fentanyl across their borders for use by drug trafficking gangs in Mexico to send over US land border at the 2000 mile long US-Mexico border.

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U.S. president Trump approved tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods. The U.S. Trade representative is expected to announce the goods subject to a tariff of 25% on June 15, 2018, and publish them in the Federal Register next week. China's Foreign Minister Wang met with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Beijing, saying at a joint news conference that  if the U.S. went ahead with the tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods China has made preparations for tariffs of its own on American goods. The biggest targets for China are aircraft and soyabeans. Separately the Tax Foundation shows the tariffs on Chinese imports, coming on top of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, would lower GDP in U.S. over long run by 0.06% and reduce employment by 45,000 positions. Other reports also confirm the impact is not significant enough and the U.S. sees its strategy as one of reversing the trade imbalance in the way it acted in negotiations with the Japanese after a similar trade imbalance with Japan. In some ways the trade imbalance with China is more severe in its impact on manufacturing in the U.S., hollowing out some sectors, and the size of the imbalance at about $ 1 billion a day much larger. This is also the position taken by U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, an experienced negotiator who negotiated with Japan during the Reagan administration. There is also the added issue today of intellectual property losses for the U.S. that the U.S. is seeking to address in the negotiations. ...

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US South Korea Trade Agreement with 15% tariff similar to Japan,  $350 billion  US "owned controlled" investments and $100 billion in energy purchases, all part of the agreement. After Japan the EU and South Korea have quickly followed in making agreements with the US on trade for a level playing field. 

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EIA says half of the benefit of higher fuel efficiency standards for Automobiles 2010-2020 in US was lost because of SUV's and the incentivizing of SUV's in the 2006 CAFE standards have made things worse. The first SUV's came in the 1980's. By 2004 SUV's made up half of car sales and by 2025 outsold cars 2 to 1. What if we took all SUV's and large cars off the roads, or even some of these SUV's by deincentivizing of SUV's in the US CAFE corporate fuel efficiency standards? What would be the savings in crude oil and in carbon footprint? Would it be about the same as releasing an additional 400 million barrels of oil into the markets in addition to the 400 million barrels that are now released through EIA and member countries? This New Yorker essay touches on this idea. During the Iran war the volatile Middle East as a source of oil supplies is a major problem for countries. Some are rationing supplies and in one country 40 million children are not going to school for 2 weeks starting this week because of the sources of oil are so precarious, government offices will only have half of the employees, the rest working from home (almost like Covid pandemic). Many other countries face that situation. The International Energy Agency recently reported that, if “SUVs were an individual country, they would rank sixth in the world for absolute emissions in 2021, emitting over 900 million tonnes of CO2.” The agency says governments must redesign their CAFE standards and their policies so that it would reduce S.U.V. sales, tax gas guzzling vehicles. EIA cites governments in the EU doing this- “Some governments have already started introducing relevant measures, such as France and Germany, which have put a tax on large and high-emissions cars.” Within SUV's also there is an opportunity to reduce the size and make more efficient space utilization designs. Small savings also add up. One has to realize that the current freedom to use energy freely in places like the US with self sufficiency in oil comes with a sense of responsibility for using it wisely so that it can be exported to cut the trade deficit, precisely what the president is doing with India, to cut a trade deficit of $58 billion before it gets to $100 billion. Section 301 is already in place for investigations by the US of 18 countries for a new basis to use tariffs after the Supreme Court decision. A similar approach is taken with EU for hundreds of billions of reductions in trade deficit that will only strengthen the US dollar and the US economy in the long run , and be good for stock markets and jobs as it reduces oil prices and increases the manufacturing capacity/cost for the Nation. Europe, India and China can do the same. Remember that in 2010 SUV's made up 17% of total world sales, and by 2025 SUV's made up 46% of world vehicle sales. This would create another 400 million barrels for the oil markets, which would triple what was released through EIA  this week to 1.2 billion barrels and this would create 120 days of supply replacement for the 10 million b/d lost from Straits of Hormuz, and effectively end the Iran War as it would be clear that prices can be kept low even in the $50's. Essentially buying time till the SU can get more production in Venezuela and other parts of the world to replace much of the Middle Eastern oil that is ending up in a quagmire. This is the best way for the US and Europe, India, China to ensure jobs growth, economic growth with low cost crude oil in the $50 range and ensure much of the poorer countries like Egypt and Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, have access to oil at prices they can afford and eliminate poverty. ...

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India received $135 billion in remittances in 2024-25 from the 18.5 million Indian diaspora, of which 10 million live in the Middle East region sending $51 billion a year. This finances the merchandise trade deficit.  In UAE alone there are 247,000 Indian students and immigrant labor is the main labor supply in the Gulf kingdoms.  Crude oil of 25-30 million barrels is on the seas as inventory to which India has access making crude oil supplies not an issue for the short term. Indian refinery production for export can also be adjusted if needed. India has received a 100 day exemption to import Russian oil from the US since the Gulf war began easing concerns for crude oil supplies. Situation for LPG is more complicated. India has used the Chabahar port to ship supplies of aid to Afghanistan on an overland route which will not operate till the tensions ease. 

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Securing transparency in financial receipts and their use by Labor Unions is a battle being fought since the Days when Robert Kennedy called this "the Enemy Within," and the Nation was shocked by the corruption in the Labor Unions. Since the days of Tammany Hall and Teddy Roosevelt's effort to clean up the system in the 1890's this is a forever battle. US auto unions benefitted from recent changes as old labor bosses were turned out and free and fair elections took place. The Washington Post says the added requirements for trade unions to file detailed disclosure of how they use funds is necessary and a good change made by the current Labor Secretary. Putting these disclosure forms online is also a good step as all workers can see where the money is going. The Post says no union boss should be afraid of more sunshine.

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China's huge trade surplus with the U.S. continues to grow even after President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. China's total exports have risen by 15.6% from a year earlier, higher than the 14.5% increase year over year in September. Exports to India, Hong Kong, grew by more than 20% in October over a year earlier.  By Chinese figures China's trade surplus with the U.S. of $260 billion for 10 months of 2018 is up 15% from year earlier, ready to set another record. This does not tally with what the U.S. says it is, with the U.S. estimate of the trade gap at $375.2 billion, over $1 billion each and every day. Previous administrations of both Republican and Democratic parties put up with the trade surplus or did little. President Trump has taken this up as a big issue and imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in a series of actions. The combined U.S. and Chinese tariffs now cover 60% of their trade in goods after the latest round of tit for tat tariffs. Experts say there is front loading of Chinese exports which accounts for the sharp increase in exports to beat the date when tariffs go into effect. Yet the overall increase in China's exports, with an added impetus from a stronger dollar suggests that the trade gap with the U.S. is a problem that will fester for a while till the trends are reversed.  ...

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By June 7 US stocks were up 11.5% in the first half of 2026, showing a resilient stock market whatever economists say about tariffs and other policies. There is a lot of misinformation on the changes in trade policy. Sure the deficits over $1 trillion had become so excessive to be a burden for the US ( this is not even to address the 20:5:2  the 20 trillion transfer in US wealth to foreign countries, 5 million jobs lost and the 2% low growth since 2000 that USTR Lighthizer and Jamieson point out in Foreign Affairs magazine in 2026).  Greg Ip comments on this in today's WSJ that betting against DJT trade and economic policy is not working. Here we have another flashback to Brexit and why a similar situation of misinformation had the opposite result. The value of the pound dropped from $1.55 to $1.35 to the US dollar in June 2016 the day Brexit referendum was won by Reform UK and the Conservatives. Today it is $1.33 in June 2026. Here is some history of Britain's tussle with the European Union. When did it start? In 1961 Britain applied to join. The French never too eager to have the British inside rejected in 1967 under nationalist De Gaulle. It took 12 years  not till 1973 did Britain get in with Denmark and both kept their currencies. As soon as Britishers complained about the bureaucracy in European Union Brussels headquarters conservatives like Boris Johnson drove this to a high pitch. He even said only way it would affect Britain was in the price of a Mars chocolate bar. Well in 2026 it is much more than that. Labour's Wes Streeting calls it a disastrous step for the UK economy to isolate it from Europe.  As usual the French don't care and the Germans showed little interest, so Britain was left to its own devices not being careful would mean bearing the costs. Manchester's mayor Burnham in Labour says he grasps this but there are other priorities that are pressing and shelves this for another time. It took 12 years to get UK into the European Union- it took just a few years under shortsighted Cameron, May and Johnson to get out when after austerity policies imposed by Cameron a lot of anger had shifted to Labourites and Blair's policies like the shortsighted policies of Bush and Obama, for the 20 trillion US lost to foreigners in their watch. Will it take another 12 years again for UK to get it right and get France and Germany to enthusiastically support Britain in the EU? ...

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U.S. strategy has shifted to keeping tariffs on Chinese imports intact as an enforcement mechanism to make sure China keeps to its commitments made in negotiations, says WSJ. U.S. trade negotiator Mr. Lighthizer sees the latest tariffs as leverage, and that tariffs would be removed only when China keeps its commitments made to the U.S. Initially Lighthizer opposed the move for additional tariffs imposed on September 1. Now he accepts the strategy to use tariffs as leverage. Mr. Trump told the Economic Club of New York that if no deal is reached in phase one then the U.S. will "substantially raise those tariffs, they are going to be raised very substantially." Because China is seen as not willing to provide written commitments with enforcement provisions the U.S. strategy has shifted to making the tariff removal an enforcement mechanism. President Trump has committed on the campaign trail to correct misalignment in trade with China. He makes the final decision in negotiations and use his negotiating style.  China sees making commitments on stopping all subsidies as affecting its sovereignty and its industrial model of state sponsored capitalism since opening in the 1990's to trade with the world. Both sides are looking for ways to gain the maximum concessions in Phase 1 of the trade deal as it is very uncertain whether any further progress can be made given the positions on each side, say experts. ...

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This editorial in the DW.com says the proposal to impose a 20% border tax on goods from countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit is bad for Germany and for the U.S.. It is a double edged sword because 1.6 million German jobs would be affected, according to Ifo Institute.  Yet also true is that German companies generate 672,000 jobs in the U.S., and about 600,000 of the 1.6 million jobs affected in Germany are by American companies in Germany, according to industry body BDI. Many of these American companies would be severely affected. So large is the bilateral trade relationship that no one would come out a winner, all would be big losers. Once the process starts it becomes tit for tat, as Germany and the European Union is faced with a dilemma on how to react, says this editorial. Which is why Merkel and Germany, are coming all out to get the trade talks on the right footing with the Trump administration. Economy minister Zypries warned about taking the case to the WTO if the Trump administration follows through on higher tariffs. Merkel has focussed on trade, and other issues have become secondary at this time. Before this meeting Germany's Gabriel met with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to set the right tone for German- U.S. relations. And the first meeting appears to have been tightly planned so that it goes off with a good start considering what is at stake. Even then this editorial reminds readers that the tone of the tariffs rhetoric from the Trump administration could affect perceptions over the next 4 years. ...

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US trade with Germany now exceeds China's trade with Germany. With the change in supply chains, slower German economy leading to lower imports and a slowing Chinese economy, this is likely to lead to US and Germany having increasing trade relations and two way trade from now on.

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Russian shadow fleet and about 80% of Russian oil now sanctioned after US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil- Feb 2026. This is putting more oil onto a fleeet of vessels operating under Comoros, Sierra Leone and third nation flags, or even two flags, which the Americans and Europeans are tracking and diverting. Russia seeks to put this oil on an alternative tanker fleet it owns and which is insured by Russia, that goes from the Baltic and Black seas to the Mediterranean to refineries in Turkey, India and China. What thsi does is increases risks for Russia in shipping and for the Euroepans and Americans when ships fly Russian flags with military convoy. The overall effect of cutting Russian oil exports in addition to India committing to buy American oil and Venezuelan oil instead of Russian oil in its trade agreement with US, is that Russian economy may be in risky territory. Inflation is higher than official 6 percent at 16% interest rates, and this increases the risk. Budget needs within Russia may not be met as this continues. It is in Russia's interest now to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, now that the US has moved away from NATO/Europe to peaceful cooperation with Russia and competition with China. ...

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Foreign Minister Wadephul of Germany in India for talks on a free trade agreement that would double trade volume to $64 billion- September 2025. It is notable that German Foreign Minister is in New Delhi to improve relations and shift to larger trade relationship with India at the very time US under pressure from Europe and Germany, France is pushing India to shift away from buying Russian oil to other sources. Each side is aware of the complexities in the relationships. In the long run Germany under Merz will after the experience of China's support of Russian invasion in Ukraine, make the changes that never happened under Merkel- making India its major trade partner in Asia. By 2030 Germany trade's with India could exceed $100 billion.

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The World Trade Organization is about to choose a new director-general to succeed Mr. Azevedo, a career diplomat from Brazil. The two candidates are a former finance minister from Nigeria,  Ms. Okonjo-Iweala supported by the European Union and the trade minister of South Korea, Ms. Yoo Myung-hee, supported by the U.S. Japan supports the Nigerian candidate because of its trade disputes with South Korea. The role of head of WTO is important today because of trade issues between countries particularly the trade issues between China and the U.S., U.S. and other countries. And the sense that the WTO arrangement is not working for many countries in recent years without a level playing field in many industries from improper subsidies. Before the U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization not much attention was given by the U.S. to how it had changed after new elections. As a result non profit foundations like the Gates Foundation from the U.S. played a leading part in representation of American interests and China played a leading role leading to the crisis facing WHO today. During the coronavirus pandemic the WHO lacking adequate influence of U.S. or European Union countries was not able to act in a way that met the needs and concerns of these countries with advanced health systems. In the past pandemics were better addressed worldwide when the U.S. and EU played a major role from the beginning because of long experience and technological resources,  a role that was missing in the current pandemic. Ebola and other virus were tackled in Africa only when the U.S. or European countries played a leading and critical role. This role was sorely missed in the current crisis. This is why changes at the World Trade Organization matter. World trade is important for the world economy and can best operate when the concerns of U.S. and European Union about a level playing field and fair competition are met. This level playing field and fair competition also meet the interests of developing countries such as India which are industrializing rapidly and need to protect their own markets from unfair dumping, as well as Indonesia and other parts of Asia, Latin America and Africa that are part of the supply chain for the world economy. ...

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Competing interests of the U.S. and China on issues such as jobs, currency and trade. Chinese stalling over currency revaluation.

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A cut in interest rates by a quarter percentage point from the U.S. central bank is a decision that comes from the U.S. not wanting to see too wide a gap in interest rates with the European Union. Losing demand to Europe and resulting lower inflation is an outcome prevented by the U.S. acting to protect its own economy with  acut in its rate. The ECB rate at 0.4% is about 3 percentage points below the Federal Reserve's rate in the U.S. After the cuts in rates to near zero by the central banks of U.S. and Europe following the financial crisis caused by poor lending practices of banks, the U.S. central bank began a process of bringing rates to about 3%. Lower rates near zero badly hurt savings accounts of ordinary Americans. By December 2018 the rates had reached 2.25%.  President Trump has called for lower rates. because of the advantages it gives Europe in trade balances with a weaker currency that follows from lower interest rates. Capital flows to the country with higher rates and increases the value of the currency creating trade disadvantages and lower trade balances. WIth European interest rates much lower than the U.S. it pushes down the value of the euro vs the dollar and the British pound lower from Brexit fears. This increases European exports putting the U.S.  at a disadvantage. As the WSJ points out the U.S. central bank says though Mr. Trump is looking at trade balances and U.S. advantage, and Mr. Powell at the U.S. central bank is looking at U.S. inflation, the result for policy is the same- the U.S. acting to cut rates and stay close to what the European Union is doing. Bond yields in Europe have dropped from a negative 0.24% to negative 0.32% with the ECB's head Mr. Draghi moving to cut rates. The announcement of Ms. Christine Lagarde as the new head of the ECB to succeed Draghi and her views to push demand up, is pushing bond yields down. The U.S. as part of the globally linked economy has to act in line with policies in Europe. ...

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In this thoughtful essay Bob Davis of the WSJ asks whether the decision of the Clinton administration to admit China into the World Trade Organization was a bad one for the U.S.  Mr. Clinton in 2000 tried to persuade Congress citing words of president Woodrow Wilson that of a dream "of a world full of free markets, free elections, and free peoples working together."  Every year China would have its most favored nation status renewed with help from supporters in Congress. After WTO entry this was not necessary. Chinese leaders saw the entry into WTO as a way to knock down trade barriers, to act a wrecking ball for the planned economy, to give the economy a big boost.  In 1994 China was a relatively backward economy with 60% of the population living on less than $1.90 a day. Hard to imagine today.  Not everyone was convinced that it was good for the U.S. This included a trade attorney who had tackled a huge trade deficit with Japan in the Reagan period- Robert Lighthizer. Lighthizer was Deputy Trade Representative negotiating with the Japanese. His prediction was that no job in America would be safe once China entered the WTO, that China would become a dominant trading nation.  Robert Cassidy, 73, trade negotiator for president Clinton looks back on that time and says that he regrets what has happened, that all his work night and a day only benefited business and hurt workers. David Autor, MIT economist and his colleagues,  in a later study documented loss of 2.4 million jobs to Chinese competition between 1999 and 2011, in many manufacturing towns dotting the landscape of America, particularly in the midwestern states. And the expectation that the higher economic growth would lead to less political control did not turn out to be true.  In the process multinationals rushed to China after WTO entry and China became the world's manufacturing floor. By 2013 China's per capita income reached $7000, after years of fast GDP growth approaching 10% a year.  About 400 million Chinese were lifted out of poverty from living on less than $1.90 per day from 1999 to 2011, according to the World Bank. A big problem was that the U.S. did not plan for the change from WTO entry. No resources were allocated for the plan to let American workers adjust through worker retraining and special trade handicapped income support, to allow for a slow planned shift. Instead the pace of growth was faster than that which the U.S. faced with the Japanese export offensive in the eighties. China experienced double digit growth after 2000. The irony is that the Republican administrations that followed Clinton followed a policy of free trade to the advantage of China's state run economy when working class Americans voted mostly for the Democratic Party. Little was done and little said in the media from Democrats and Republicans in Congress and the establishment during this time even after Mr. David Autor documented the effects of trade in the U.S.  Till Mr. Trump recognizing the alienation in communities hit by job losses from trade upended American politics, shifted this part of the electorate to the Republican base. Mr. Lighthizer's view is that complaints about China should be left out of WTO because it is naive to tackle it that way. With a $375 billion China trade deficit for 2017 the challenge has to be met in a different way, and the U.S. has to rely on regaining its economic strength within a fair trading framework. Having negotiated with the Japanese Mr. Lighthizer sees the approach adopted then as the one right for today. During the long negotiations Lighthizer is said to have received many negotiating positions of the Japanese signifying no change in long sessions. He once simply made a paper plane and sent it right back, in one of these sessions. He meant that the U.S. was serious about reversing the imbalance in trade. ...