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William Isaac was Chairman of the FDIC during the tumultous years for banks and thrifts in the 1980's, he was Chairman from 1981-85, and organized the rescue of the Continental Illiois Bank in 1984. So what does he think is happening now. His view is that we have been spoiled by 25 years of unprecedented prosperity, and have let the 24 hour news channels and the anxiety of the changing mood of the country as it leaves behind the Bush years, put us into a bit of a shock mentality as we navigate the credit and banking storms now facing the economy with expressions like the worst crisis since the Great Depression in regular use. He says the U.S. had 3000 thrift and bank failures during the 1980's and early 1990's, and still had 130 banks on the problem list at year-end 1991. And he points out that virtually every major bank in the country would have failed in 1984 had a couple of developing countries renounced their debts. which the FDIC considered possible. He sees something positive in the decline in home prices. In his home town of Sarasota, Florida, home prices jumped 35% in 2005. Such price increases put homes beyond the reach of new homebuyers so a price decrease would benefit people especially young people entering the housing market. He understands the situation Bernanke was in when he made the decision to rescue Bear Stearns but he is a bit leery of the Fed becoming too proactive in this area. He organized the rescue of Continental Illinois Bank in 1984 but sees this type of action as a one time event made on an exception basis. ...

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Mervyn King of the Bank of England and Ben Bernanke both were academics at MIT, and both share the approach they are taking for quantitative easing or credit easing. They are buying up assets like government bonds in the case of Bank of England to reduce the yields, and commerical paper, mortgage backed securities, and consumer debt in the case of the Fed, also to reduce yields and drive up prices. The idea is to act more decisively than the Bank of Japan did during Japan's banking crisis, and flood the system with cash so that there is real impact. There is less danger of inflation in this downturn, which is one of the calculations that the Fed and the Bank of England are both making as they do this.

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Hilsenrath gives an account of how U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke convinced his fellow governors to support QE III and achieved a rare consensus.

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The day by day account of events in Europe tht led the ECB to act and a similiar account of events in the USA that led the Federal Reserve to act. How the key players in the US, the individuals directly invoved at the Fed and on Wall Street discussed the developing crisis, monitored it and finally agreed on steps. A key event in the crisis in the USA is the sudden drying up in demand for commercial paper which could lead to a cycle of continuing credit contraction. See the related article by Brian Wesbury in todays WSJ, who sees the Bernanke Fed's actions in a macro perspective as being just the right steps for now. See

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The Fed cuts rates by three quarters of a percentage point to 2.25%, but cautions about inflation expectations. The increasing inflation and the fears of a steep fall in the value of the dollar, and the knowledge that liquidity is hardly the root of the problem considering that opaqueness of mortgage securities and not knowing who owns the bad ones is the source of the confusion in markets, will limit what the Fed can do from now on. The focus should be shifting to reduce the loan burden on homeowners at risk of foreclosures so that they can make payments on smaller principal for longer periods with better terms with Government backing the softer terms and the Bush administration is gradually coming around to the view that its announced voluntary loan improvements are not enough to meet this crisis which is just beginning to heat up.

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Speaking at the Economc Club of Indiana, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke, says responsibility for fiscal policy lies fully on Congress and the administration. Monetary easing through QE I,II and III, which reduces the borrowing costs of the U.S. government by keeping interest rates low, cannot be seen as taking pressure off Congress and the administration, as critics claim. He countered criticism by saying: "Suppose notwithstanding our legal mandate, the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates for the purpose of making it more expensive for the government to borrow. Such an action would substantially increase the deficit, not only because of higher interest rates, but also because the weaker recovery that would result from premature monetary tightening would further widen the gap between spening and revenues." Lawmakers would be no more inclined to come up with a program to reduce the deficit in this situation argues Bernanke. This statement of Bernake only reaffirms that low interest rates are an important goal here in the U.S.,- just as they are for France and other countries in Europe that are faced with tackling large debt and deficits- and are part of the overall solution for the government to manage its finances....

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Bernanke's defense of the action of the Fed's monetary policy making committee, on November 3, 2010, (with a vote of 10-1) to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasury securities over the next 8 months. His defense focusses on the prospects of deflation- how low inflation can morph into deflation (falling prices and wages), that can create a long period of economic stagnation. In addition, with low and falling inflation, Bernanke sees spare capacity in the US that can be utilized to reduce the number of jobless people. He points to the rise in stock prices and fall in long term interest rates in anticipation of the Fed's action, as evidence that this Fed move would improve financial conditions. Lower mortgage rates would make housing more affordable, higher stock prices would increase consumer wealth, confidence and spending. Spending would lead to higher incomes and profits for economic expansion, from this viewpoint. The situation in November 2010, was a deepening housing slump anticipated for 2011, gridlock after the 2010 midterm elections and no agreement on additional stimulus for 2011, the need to rebalance the global economy lacking cooperation from China (with China increasing imports and reducing exports and the US increasing exports and reducing imports). Fed's Bernanke does not mention these factors, and only hints at the gridlock towards the end of the statement. This Fed action will push the dollar lower, just as efforts to improve exports and the trade balance are underway. The Fed's committee sees the risks of commodities inflation as an acceptable risk in the current situation, and the use of a cautious approach assessing the purchase program regularly as sufficient measure of safety. As to difficulties of the unwinding of these policies, the Fed sees present danger outweighing the risks of no action. For emerging markets such as Turkey, India, Australia and other countries seeing even more inflows of capital, the risks are left to these countries to manage. The central banks of India and Australia moved to increase interest rates at the same time that the Fed made its move....

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Instead of a jinx much to the contrary the US economy outlook for 2030 in Feb 2026- a surge in investment spending in 2026-2030, new manufacturing investments and lower energy costs, moderating inflation, are likely to propel the US economy ahead to 2030.The effect of tariffs as a policy making tool has been muted because of exemptions, reversal of tariff rates once key objectives were secure for tariffs as a way to get action on foreign policy as with Indian purchases of Russian oil, deals with Japan, South Korea and China, India, UK and the EU. Some sources such as the Philadelphia Fed see price rises reaching 3% in some inflation guages more than the moderate 2.5% in the consumer price index for January 2026. These sources see the hiring slowing down just as layoffs begin to happen in the latter part of the year which is a possibility but less likely. At this point in Feb 2026 there is a tendency not to layoff and to hang onto employees, and hiring has been slow in 2025. January's report of 130,000 jobs added is the first sign of strengthening of the jobs market. Overall a cautious view would be to call it a soft landing after the inflation surge of the covid period. Another way of looking at is is more in line with the strategic direction of the US economy- freeing up the economy with investments in energy,  reducing the key costs of production, tax policy of Bessent's complete one shot depreciation of equipment increasing business investment, tariff policy making the world trading system fairer and now more attuned to US interests, all creating an investment and jobs surge in 2026-2027. There is an added benefit from US efforts to free up the world trading system from the stranglehold placed on it by China with its control over world manufacturing. A dominance and unwise concentration gained from the serious mistakes of the Bush-Clinton period of not putting in safeguards for US factories and jobs (that form the backbone for families in neighborhoods towns and regions across the US), and US business interests growing indifference to the very communities they were based in by outshoring to China destroying whole regions in America. Even where it is criticized or seen as negative there are huge benefits when the US acted. Tariff increase on India is a clear example- it built Indian resilient attitude in June-Feb 2026, and during this period it cut funding Russia's war in Ukraine by sourcing energy from other sources, the US policy led to India and EU+ Germany signing trade agreements to double their effort and double trade and scientific cooperation ( a goal secured for the US as it reduces concentration in China), was followed by US signing its own trade agreement with India within days, and increases world trade of US and EU and Germany in ways that will bring 2.5 billion people into a strong partnership that overshadows anything that happened in China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failure. ...

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While the Fed will continue to carefully monitor conditions and the changes resulting from DJT's actions in immigration and tariffs, and federal workforce cuts, Powell says "the economy is in a good place," though it remains to be seen what happens with spending and investment with these changes. On changes in rapid sequence in first 100 days of DJT second term Powell says- "The new administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy and regulation,” Powell says at a University of Chicago Booth School of Business economic forum in New York City. “Uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high. “We are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.” ...

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Over 50% of Israelis support Iran war, only 30% oppose. As Israelis see it Iran under religious clerics is the only real threat to Israel in 2025 because of Iran's policy of proxies for attacking Israel in Lebanon and in Gaza, and because of it's development of nuclear weapons and openly threatening Israel. The US involvement in Iranian politics dates from the Dulles and Eisenhower era with the CIA's involvement in the overthrow of the democratically elected Iranian prime minister Mossadegh in 1953. Working with British intelligence and for British oil interests, US oil interests, the US made a serious mistake as seen from today's perspective. The moral is British or French colonial policy stay from it America- George Washington himself would advise. Israel is paying the price and is asked to correct what was done by the British in Iran since 1850's- to bring back a peaceful democracy with the kind of struggles even Greece experienced. The unelected wholly unrepresentative government of the Shah who was put in the place of a democratically elected government was a serious mistake. The British and French colonialism and oil interests of Britain plus American oil companies have led to US getting on the wrong side of the Vietnamese people in the war in Vietnam against the French that ended at the battle of Dien Bien Phu in 1954. It had repercussions in the Vietnam war under Kennedy and Johnson. This has happened in the case of Iran where the US has gained so little and lost so much in lives and resources sunk in the ensuing was in Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Yemen. The European Union suffered from the huge migrant flow from Syria with splits in its ranks. The distractions of these 30 years through Reagan and Rumsfeld who supported Hussein in Iraq against Iran in a balancing act is now foolishness, of elder Bush as he diverted attention to a long desert war in Kuwait, of Bush and then Obama in Afghanistan, who wasted enormous resources and impoverished the American people. Leaving legacy wars for Trump and Biden to handle. After Vietnam another failed chapter of Iran in the US for the American people by incompetent leaders who were taken in by French and British colonial and oil interests in wrong directions.   ...

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Central bank officials say interest rates will stay at zero for about 3 years, to 2023.

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The U.S. central bank, Federal Reserve, is grappling with the problem of low inflation. Inflation reached around 2% by December 2018 but has slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter of 2019. The cuts in interest rates to keep the U.S. and European stock markets from declining sharply and affecting business confidence and investment were part of the response from central banks following the blunders by banks in the years preceding 2008. This has hurt savers and savings accounts of ordinary Americans over a decade with rates as low as below 1%, creating a sense of inequity/fairness. Now the Federal Reserve is back to reducing rates by a quarter point from its current level of between 2.25 and 2.5%. Rates rose for a while as confidence returned to markets to the current level. The reason for reversing the increases and a cut in rates is that the U.S. central bank sees the need to set rates looking at the rates in Europe and other countries where the economic conditions and confidence is lacking and rates are kept lower than in the U.S. The Federal Reserve sees it as unhealthy to let the gap between the U.S. and rates in Japan and Europe to grow too large because of the global interlinkages. Earlier models of the tradeoff between unemployment and inflation are also seen as unreliable in today's conditions of irresponsible behaviour in banking and other sectors, and unfair trade advantages gained by nations in Asia that are now leading to trade wars. ...

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Germany's modernization plan for bureaucracy and red tape  a major priority for  Merz with savings of $175 billion. Efforts to have a policy aross all state govenments and federal governments that cuts bureaucratic reporting and documentation requirements at least by one third. Other actions-

emails replace paper documents

one time data collection and faster approvals if the authorites have not cleared it in 3 months it is automatically approved

The population wants reforms; they want to overcome the stagnation," says Kretschemmer, premier of the state of Saxony.

 

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The New York Times reports from the comments of current and former members of the Chase Chief Investment Office (CIO), that risk officers at Chase were ignored when they raised issues about the complex trades made by trader Iksil. Iksil's trades had the support of his manager Mr. Macris, and Ms. Drew who was in charge of CIO. The comments also indicate that at one point Mr. Macris brought in a Risk Officer with whom he had worked closely for many years. Risk Officers are supposed to be independent and their concerns seriously heard, with the authority to halt trades that pose excessive risks. Which made this kind of cozy behaviour in the CIO trading offices in London cause for alarm. These reports also say Mr. Braunstein, the new CFO at JP Morgan Chase, did not strengthen controls after he assumed office in 2010. Bank officials disputed this. The New York offices did not fully grasp the complex trades being made in the CIO London offices, and upper management let the CIO operate pretty much on its own, especially with CEO Jamie Dimon's confidence in Ms. Drew's management of the CIO. This led to another gap in the process of risk management. Dimon had other priorities and distractions, from problem mortgages coming with the acquisition of Washington Mutual, pushing back aginst financial regulation after the 2008 crisis, stress tests and others. At the same time the U.S. Federal Reserve, regulators, and Treasury's coordinated effort to merge failing banks with other larger banks- because of the lack of the process of unwinding failed banks provided later under Dodd-Frank legislation- created mega financial banks. Unlike what the U.S. under Treasury Secretary Rubin pushed for in the case of S. Korea during a banking crisis in 1997, Treasury under Geithner and Fed officials did not push for unwinding of failed financial institutions such as Countrywide and Washington Mutual in 2008-2009 Chase's own portfolio of assets under the CIO, increased by an astounding amount from $76 billion in 2007 to $356 billion in 2011. Even if Ms Drew had managed CIO well before, managing a portfolio of this size is most likely to have presented a whole set of new challenges and problems for which the CIO office was not prepared. Similiar concerns were raised by other Fed officials such as Fed governors, Hoenig and Fisher, who raised the issue that such mega-banks posed unacceptable risks and were too big to manage. Pressures to increase investing profits, growing complacency, relaxing risk management controls, led to the situation where a single trader Mr. Iksil, who had only joined the bank in 2007 according to other reports, could create large losses. This follows a situation at UBSin 2011, where a novice trader made bets that resulted in large losses....