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A good account of the history and weaknesses of the Amtrak based system of rail service in the USA. Questions abound about the queer situation where you find rail popular in Europe and so not prevalent and scarce in the USA. How efficient is Amtrak's rail service in conserving energy? Amtrak uses electricity made from coal, it uses 17% less fuel than a passenger car and 32% less than a airline airplane according to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Is this based on new fuel efficient locomotives? No the locomotives are old and Amtrak equipment is aging, so much more fuel efficiency gains could probably be made with new technology and investment. Rail service is coming out of a 40 year period of neglect, and Amtrak itself was probably created to put in one place and hold together a dwindling service, as the passenger services of freight railroads were consolidated to create Amtrak in 1970 by the federal government after the interstate highway system built during the postwar Eishenhower years led to a boom in car travel and the spread of housing to spread out suburbs. At the time private operation was not a consideration as Amtrak itself was a rescue operation to preserve some semblence of rail service before it died out. Now with fresh incentive to do mass transit the whole question being posed is whether private operators should be brought in and would do a better job than Amtrak. Today Amtrak has in all 632 usable rail cars an astonishingly small number, its Amfleet cars are 30 years old, and the Acela trains are 8 years old. In all it carried 25 million passengers last year and in 2008 probably will get to 27 million. Many of these are on long haul routes and where passengers can get to small towns where there is no plane service. Its labor contracts require it to keep these routes. So its a peculiar Amtrak that exists today as a result of historical events and shift to road travel, and it may not be the best vehicle to move the USA towards greater use of mass transit to conserve energy, as its slow to change and takes years to introduce new technology and is not spread out evenly over short and long haul routes. The customer service suffered all these years with no competiton and competition may be healthy for better technology, better service and service on new routes. The UK rail service from London to different parts of the country has been privatised for instance. Better technology and fast service are essential to attract new customers and this is an area in which Europe has made significant progress. At this point even with federal money Amtrak would take years to get new technology from the current manner of writing specification for bids, picking a vendor and waiting for delivery especially as vendors have dwindled because of the lack of demand in prior years....

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Polish and other Eastern European immigrants to Ireland return home from the Ireland aand the UK as the economies of the 2 countries and unemployment deteriorate and improved job prospects draw the immigrants back home. In fact share of immigrants in ireland reached a high of 155 as Ireland averaged economic growth rates of 5% for many years. Nearly half a million received the irish version ofa social security number. Polish immigrants were the highest almost two thirds followed by Lithuanians and Slovakians. Hourly wages for Eastern European immigrants are 45% less than for Irish people with the same education and experience. Now Ireland's growth has dropped to 1.2% for the last quarter. The reversal is also of the similiar magnitude. A citigroup econ9omist in Warsaw estimates that half of Polish immigrants to Western Europe will return home in the next 2 years. In the UK half of an estimated one million Eastern European immigrants have already left says London Institute for Public Policy Research in an April report. As the immigrants return the currency dynamics also help the pound has lost 40% of its value against the zloty, Poland's currency, and this makes the UK less atttractive to immigrants. Overall the EU immigration opening has helped both sides, as it has helped stabilize the Polish economy and the UK has gained from the immigrants services as it moderated wage inflation and increased domestic demand and met the demands of the economy as it was growing. Now there is a fear that too rapid an exit of immigrants would hurt demand in these economies and also overwhelm labor markets in Poland. Another noteworthy feature of this immigration wave was the low cost of airlinne tickets which has helped travel across europe and also helped European integration. One immigrant a polish mechanic says that he felt more like a commuter than a migrant, as it conly cost $150 a round trip. How are things in Poland today as they return. Very very different. EU entry has really helped Poland through foreign investment and aid from Brussels to assist the country in its catching up progress. Average monthly wages have gone up 30% with construction wages up 50%. and inflation a low of 4.4%. The difference is striking in the medieval city of Krakow in the southeast that has emerged as an information technology and outsourcing hub. where a steady stream of returning workers is helping companies hire workers to meet the new growth. German commercial truck maker MAN has finished recruting 250 mechanics for a new plant in Krakow with 40% of applications from returnig workers. And those who are returning bring fluent English skills and expertise gathered during their stay overseas, and new attitudes to work. This happened to Ireland as Irish workers returned home in the early years of its boom, they hared skills and attitudes learned abroad, according to an economist at Dublin's Economic and Social Research Institute who sees the same thing happening in Poland....

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Mistrust in the financial system that led to a spike in interbank lending rates in Europe and the USA on August 9th, 2007. When risk is dispersed throughout the financial system such as with mortgage securitization it makes everyone nervous because no one knows exactly how much is out there and where.

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Coordinated action by the central banks of the U.S., Canada, Switzerland, the EU, and Japan to ease liquidity problems, as Italy's borrowing rates edged up to 8%, and other EU countries faced similiar problems in November, 2011.

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Under the coordinated action by central banks in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Switzerland and the ECB, the U.S. Federal Reserve lends dollars to the ECB, getting euros in return, and the ECB in turn provides European banks with the U.S. dollars. The European banks were facing a shortage of U.S. dollars in November 2011. Money market funds in the U.S. had pulled back from investing in eurozone bonds in the third quarter of 2011, adding to the shortage of dollars. This action eases liquidity concerns.

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California lost 79,000 jobs in January, 2009. The California Employment Development Department said the unemployment rate was 10.1% for January 2009, up from the revised figure of 8.7% in December 2008. California expects to pass 11 or 12% unemployment in 2009. A total of 1,863,000 Californians are unemployed, up 754,000 from January 2008, with 3.3% fewer jobs in January 2009 compared to January 2008.

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The mood in the UK is becoming less receptive to foreigners as job losses mount and the economy declines. For a long period under Labor administrations openness to foreign investment served Britain well. From 2004 to 2007 foreign investment accounted for 7.4% of UK's GDP compared with 1.4% in the USA and 1.6% in Germany. Immigration tripled under Labor governments. Now the mood is shifting as job losses mount. Unemployment which was 4.7% in 2005, was 6.3% in the 4th quarter of 2008. Estimates by IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm, shows that unemployment could reach 10.5% by early 2011. Government figures indicate that the number of British workers in the country went down by 234,000 to 27 million in the last quarter of 2008. The number of foreign workers went up by 175,000 to 2.4 million. About 104,000 jobs were lost in the 4th quarter of 2008. During the period from 1995 to today manufacturing accounts for a smaller portion of the British economy, going from 21% to 14%. In this new climate French owner Total SA faced strikes at it Immingham oil refinery for not hiring British workers for an expansion at the refinery. It offered to set aside 102 of 200 temporary construction jobs for British workers. And public anger is evident about things that earlier would have aroused passing interest. One example was for a plan to sell part of the British postal service with the Dutch or the Danish as buyers. Another an award by the government to the Japanese of acontract to build and operate a fleet of high speed trains. And immigration is emerging as the third biggest ocncern of in the country, according to a survey by Ipsos MORI, after the economy and crime, the fourth being unemployment. Actually immigration and unemployment are strongly related, and both are related to the economy, all issues related to the steep downturn, especially to the collapse of the financial industry in London....

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How an outside director is heard at meetings of China Netcom Group (Hong Kong), in this case former Goldman banker Thornton. This is rare in Chinese board meetings. There is a story behind this and Jason Dean tells us what happened to bring Thornton, Roderic Hills a former SEC chairman, McKinsey, Qian, a governance expert at UC Berkeley, Tian, a US trained founder of Netcom, and Mr Zhang together to shape Netcom's corporate governance, as a model for the other state controlled Chinese companies. Especially useful is the insight from Zhang about the role of the Communist party committee in Netcom, of which he is party secretary, and its counterparts which really run state controlled Chinese companies. The communist party committee is responsible for six functions, not spelled out here, but probably refers to the social goals as perceived by the communist party. One of the goals is modernization- bringing Chinese company management to best practice standards in Europe and the US. Netcom's incentive is that it needs to stand out against its better positioned competitors China Telecom and China Mobile, which have a big share of the market. Zhang gives the impression of being a thinking type willing to try out new ideas to help achieve the goal of "catching up" to best practice governance....

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Michael Gerson offers his assessment of president Obama's 7 years in office, saying that after this period the public has lost faith in American liberalism, that Obama held it all together through a self-centredness that is now replaced by public rage that has brought out other self-centred politicians in the Republican party, such as Donald Trump. Deutsche Welle summed up its view from Europe of the Obama presidency as a period that was little more than a transitional presidency. Gero Schliess writing in DW.com, says one of the tragedies of this presidency is that the much talked about change would come about only under a successor, in a best case scenario under a Democratic successor. Yet if Gerson is right Americans are losing faith in American liberalism after the Obama years, with the setbacks suffered by the white working class and the middle class in these years, and the political deadlock that has prevented action to help them. Speaker Paul Ryan recently convened a conference on this subject. In October 2014 Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen described the problem at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston conference on economic opportunity and inequality, questioning whether the trends were "compatible with the values rooted in our nation's history, and the high value Americans tend to place on equality of opportunity."...

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In his foreign policy address following the northeast state primaries Donald Trump outlines a policy with less foreign engagement in trouble spots, and greater reliance on partners in Europe and Asia contributing to joint defense. It also includes building up the military and nuclear arsenal. It criticizes the Bush administration for intervention in Iraq that benefitted Iran, and the Obama administration for policies that led to the rise of Islamic State. Because Trump is not for supporting foreign engagements in trouble spots the difference in Trump's policies is not announcing or signalling in advance what U.S. response would be, instead keeping it unpredictable. It is not clear how much this would work given that any president would inherit the situation before him, and also the complexity of the situation would not change, such as the need to have Iranian cooperation and Saudi cooperation to tackle Islamic State. The Bush administration started with a similiar intention to focus on domestic policy, till the 9/11 surprise attack steered it away towards nationbuilding overseas. The pendulum swung in the latter years of the Bush adminstration to the Iraq intervention, Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, followed by a swing in the other direction to allowing Libya and Syria disntegrate leading to millions of refugees. Complexity, surprises, and swings of popular opinion, are unlikely to go away, even as caution is exercized and military capabilities enhanced....

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Peggy Noonan describes the Trump candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. She points out that this is a result of the public discontent and dissatisfaction with politicians, and government, which is seen as not able to get things done. She talks to one Tennessee woman in her 60's who describes in detail why she supports Trump. Trump has touched a chord with many voters because of how little they trust politicians in general, Republican, Democrat, or Libertarian, or some other type. As with the UK Independence Party this type of leader taps into resentment of illegal immigrants. In France, Spain, UK and other parts of Europe fringe parties are drawing increasing support because voters have lost faith in existing mainstream parties. In the U.S. this takes the form of discontent expressed through a fringe candidate within a mainstream party itself. Voters put up with inconsistent positions, extravagant claims and charges, just to have an alternative. And Noonan points out that this is not going away anytime soon. As 2016 comes closer the UK election offers some insights- it was thought initially that UKIP would split the Conservative vote, but the elections showed UKIP splitting the Labor vote in the north of England. Voters distrusted mainstream politicians, in the final result they distrusted Labor politicians more. ...

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Rauhala cites an email from Apple CEO, Tim Cook, saying updates he gets about performance in China every morning show strong growth for Apple's business for July and August. China's retail sales are up 10.4% for the first 7 months of 2015, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The services sector as a whole showed growth of 8.4% in the first half of 2015, and it now makes up 49.5% of GDP, according to government statistics. Overall economic growth is about 4-5%, as the 7% official figure is considered overstated. Zhao Longkai, the executive director of the Beijing Univerisity Guanghua School of Management, says the retail sector should not be affected that much because losses are largely limited to a small number of wealthy investors, though some ordinary retail investors are affected, with overall stock market participation quite low compared to the U.S. and Europe. This and other expert opinion points to a situation of slower growth and debt overhang from the last stimulus, but not a strong connection between the stock market and the economy. The government's credibilty is affected by the failed intervention in July and this time during the sharp declines on August 24-25 the government is letting the market finds its own level, believing it will be better for markets and let them stabilize. ...

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China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, countries that are part of the G-20 are not part of the G-8. Without the developing countries no real progress can be made on climate change or on emissions control. Climate change was a key focus of this summit in Itlay for the G-8 but with India and China only on the sidelines and acting more as an opposition excluded from the main deliberations the whole climate change agenda had to be shelved. The European countries lose influence in an enlarged summit so the G-8 keeps going along. Sweden holds the rotating Presidency of the EU, so the Swedes are there also. And so is Portugal in away with Manuel Barroso representing the European Commisssion. Except Japan, Asia is not represented, and no country from Africa or Latin America is represented. The European club looks like an anachronism and it is. Merkel and Sarkozy say they know this, but there is too much resistance in Europe to giving up this privilege. When the Guardian reported that Italy may be left out in future meetings of an expanded summit. the Italian press and the Italian prime minister Berlusconi denounced the report. Other countries that lose influence in an expanded arrangement are Canada and Japan. ...

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Mexico has emerged as the world's fourth largest exporter of cars in 2012 after Japan, Germany, and S. Korea. Mexico is expected to surpass S. Korea in a few years. In 2011 2.68 millon cars and trucks were manufactured in Mexico. Honda, Nissan, VW and other companies are building new plants in Mexico. Exports in 2012 are expected to reach 2.14 million cars. With the increase in wages in China's auto plants Mexican wages are highly competitive with China, considering the proximity to markets in N. America and Latin America. Wages in Mexico are about $40 a day for assembly line workers. By comparison wages in China are about $3 an hour. Honda plans to manufacture its Fit small car in Mexico. VW executives say a VW car made in Europe is imported into Brazil with 35% duty, into the U.S. with a 25% duty on trucks, and this can be avoided by making automobiles in Mexico. The quality and reliability of vehicles made in Mexico compares well with vehicles made in Japan, according to Nissan, and productivity at plants is high. There is also good avialability of engineers and plant workers. The growing automobile production also means new plants of auto suppliers from Japan, Germany and other countries in a snowball effect as new auto plants open creating new demand for components....

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AstraZeneca PLC showed a net profit decline of 8.3% in fourth quarter 2011, on sales that remained stable at $8.66 billion compared to $8.62 billion in the prior year quarter. AstraZeneca is facing competition from low cost generics and cuts in government health care spending similiar to the rest of the industry. The company has announced new job cuts of 7,300 job for 2012, which brings total job cuts to 30,000 for the last 5 years. Most of the job cuts are in the U.S. and Europe. Hiring has continued in emerging markets leaving the net job cuts over the last 5 years at 9,600. Of the 7,300 job cuts planned for 2012, 2,200 will be in R&D departments, 1,350 in manufacturing and 3,750 in sales. AstraZeneca is changing the way it will do research and development with these changes. It will close the neuroscience research laboratories in Sodertalje, Sweden and in Montreal. It will have in its place "virtual" neuroscience units, small groups of 40-50 researchers working with academic groups and scientists outside to utilize the best science in the field. This is one of the most radical changes in R&D practices among pharmaceutical companies. In marketing the approach has shifted from having full time sales people call doctors offices to using online marketing tools and telemarketers. This approach is also being adopted for emerging markets....

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Of the 10 parties expected to win seats in the Greek parliamentary elections, 7 oppose the IMF program for Greece and 2 call for exit from the euro. A Pasok-New Democracy coalition government is by no means certain. Pasok and New Democracy largely supported the IMF program before the elections. Greece has to make 3 billion euros of spending cuts right after the elections and 12 billion euros in 2013-2014 under the IMF program. Poor showing by Pasok and New Democracy could lead to calls for changes to the IMF program. About 73% of Greece's debt is now in official hands- 23% with the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), 21% bilateral government loans, 21% ECB, 8% IMF. Only 27% is now in the hands of private investors after the debt restructuring. The election of Socialist candidate Hollande in France who has declared the handling of Greece by the EU deplorable and a failure of governance not only in Greece but in Europe, would also add support to calls for changes in the IMF program to include growth measures. Hollande predicts a large public contribution by governments, the EFSF and the ECB, the IMF, to match the 70% contribution of private investors. The IMF appears to have anticipated this by recently enlarging its rescue fund....

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Andrew Kramer reports from the front near the city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine with signs of a breakdown in the second Minsk accord. Following the breakdown of the Minsk agreement of September 2014 by February 2015, with fighting around the town of Debaltseve, leaders of Russia, Germany, France and the separatist eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk met again in Minsk, Belarus, on Feb 11, 2015. This led to the second Minsk Agreement and a ceasefire. This agreement called for release of prisoners, a zone to separate the soldiers on each side, constitutional reforms for decentralization in Ukraine giving autonomy to the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, and monitoring by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Minsk II agreement is under strain as the economic blockade by Kiev, and separatist violations of the ceasefire, have created a tense situation by June 2015. The second Minsk agreement was reached under pressure from the U.S. saying it would send arms to the government in Kiev if Russia continued to send troops into Ukraine, and Germany seeking to avoid a further escalation of the conflict. In the background the U.S. and the EU continued economic sanctions on Russia, and the Russian economy suffered from a decline in oil prices as a result of Saudi pricing decisions....

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Krugman sees Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Finance Minister Peer Steinbruck stalling an overall stimulus plan for the whole of the EU. Merkel told a political party meeting that Germany "wasn't going to participate in this senseless race for billions." And Steinbruck said Britian was engaging in "crass Keynesianism". True Germany has not been on the debt financed consumption binge that the UK has been in and does not have a housing bubble bursting like the UK, but says Krugman Germany is also facing a crisis like the rest of Europe. Ifo, German Research Insttitute points to the worsening crisis in Germany as the worst since the 1940's. Part of the reason is that Germany is abig exporter and its medium sized companies are big exporters and a large part of the economy. With the slowdown in China and the rest of Asia these exports have been hit hard. See the links to this. What happens without acoordinated response in the EU? Krugman warns that it would lead to leakages in which the advantages of the stimulus by the rest of the EU would not be as effective as with a coordinated response including Germany the biggest EU nation. He expects Merkel to wake up to the need for this once she sees the new numbers. ...

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Robert Frank, an economist at Cornell and visiting Professor at the Stern School of Business at NYU, says this deficit increasing our debt burden is entirely different from the way in which the Bush administration increased the national debt. During the last 8 years the Bush deficits increased the national debt by almost $5 trillion. But people went for larger mansions, and consumers went on aconsumption binge, and the Bush tax cuts were skewed to help the wealthy. Now to address the economic crisis a similiar amount of about $5 trillion will be needed but it will be spent quite differently. Money spent on ropads and building infrastructure that is needed is money well spent on any dimension. Especiallyfor America's crumbling roads and bridges and highways. If postponed these would cost more or twice as much to fix. Frank's point is that alot depends on what you do with the money. At recent interest rates servicing $10 trillion in debt costs about $400 billion annually. He says thats quite manageable. Just by instituting agasoline tax of $2 agallon as the Europeans do and are not alot poorer dfor this, the US could generate $100 billion ayear. When Americans are using mass transit in the largest numbers in 50 years, it also makes sense to build better faster transportation systems between major cities, like the high speed trains in Europe....

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General Motors reports a huge second quarter 2008 loss of $15.5 billion , of which $ 2billion loss is from leasing vehicles, $3.3 billion for former part division Delphi Corp, and $3.3 billion for a buyout offer that reduced payrolls by 19000 last quarter. It also includes a surprising $65 million loss for Asian operations with added costs of hedging against drop in currencies. And Europe made just $99 million. So other than Brazil the situation is disappointing overseas also. Lower truck sales caused a $9.9 billion decline in N. American revenues to $19.8 billion from $29.7 billion. And GM said US vehicle sales dropped 26% in July, 2008. The course of GM's decline is now taking on breathtaking proortions-From 2005 to 2007 GM lost $50 billion and in the 1st and second quarters of 2008 losses of $18 billion, leaving only $20.5 billion of readily available cash and assets for future downturns. GM's market share close to 30% in 1998 is now a liitle over 20% in 2008. With all this havoc on GM's bottom line and market share GM continues to hobble along without any new blood and fresh thinking and new leadership that combines experience in other difficult business settings with vision and execution. Fiat went through this a few years before with fresh thinking and leadership and Ford is trying to get some fresh thinking under Mulally....

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How will deflation in the USA affect jobs in China? Not just Roubini talks about a deep recession. Kenneth Rogoff, an economist who has argued with Stiglitz's view of things during other banking and financial crises in Asia in the nineties and has been an optimist about things compared to Roubini's serious concerns, is now talking about a lost decade. Early on a lot was said of and made of the housing crisis in Sweden, where with strong government intervention and decisive action to capitalize and take stakes in banks, things were back to normal in a few years. One thing that Sweden did not face was a global slowdown and global systemic effects of credit crises worldwide so it now looks like a different situation. Here you have a series of things happening at the same time, housing price collapse, foreclosures, higher unemployment, no savings and high debt for consumers and banks foreshadowing possible collapse in consumer spending, and declines in capital spending, tight or no credit for small and larger business, global slowdown including China and India slowing exports significantly for the developed countries of USA, Europe and Japan. Interest rates near zero in the USA and Japan and trillion dollars already committed in the USA for bailouts and assistance, even before the ful force of the economic downturn has hit and this is the beginning of the downturn. ...