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The president telling Kamala "go for it kid. I love you.," and Kamala saying "I love you." The president saying that he is all in this campaign. The staff in Wilmington, Delaware grasped the emotion of the moment, and what it means for America. It may not be fully understood but it serves well the moment and this time in American history- there are now two candidates for president, Biden as the honorary unofficial presidential nominee, Kama as officially presidential nominee, and the to be selected nominee for vice president, not two but three in that team for the first time in American history- all inseparable to take head on the dangers to America's democratic institutions that George Washington by paying so little attention to himself, that Jefferson and Adams, TR, Wilson and FDR fought to protect through 2 World Wars, dangers from social media and television degenerated divisiveness. Katie Rogers tells the story of how on one summer afternoon in July, on July 22, 2024, the Biden campaign was converted into the Harris campaign all the way down to the memes popularity for Kamala. The president's call "to embrace her," the Biden staff with little time to express their emotions, all staffers in Wilmington become Harris staffers knowing also the deep loyalty that Kamala Harris had shown throughout the long weeks for Biden, and her strong feelings for being on the president's team. ...

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After elections this week in Germany the CDU may be faced with forming a government with the BSW socialist party an unlikely pair. Germany's political leader Sarah Wagenknecht considers the policy of letting migrants in to be "highly problematic", and making it difficult to focus on help for workers and families. Wagenknect says - "Not because people don't deserve a better life, but because our country is simply overburdened as a result."  She pursues a social policy that follows common sense on behalf of the working class and unions, and follows socialist policies for better incomes and benefits for workers. This is new to Germany says DW.com, yet it is not true for the EU. Neighboring Denmark for example has prime minister Mette Hendriksen who has said the same thing about migrants, opposing entry because it leaves the workers worse off than before and presents both a burden and a huge distraction from the many issues the working class face today. The Democrats in the US also are coming to the same conclusion as president Biden and Harris have moved to secure the Border with Mexico and cut unlawful migrant flows to a trickle in 2024.  These shifts will affect Scholz and the SPD party in 2025, as well as the FDP and Greens as they lose popularity in the former East Germany.  ...

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Figures from Kiel Institute for World Economy show that European Union aid to Ukraine is nearly double that of the US- $187 billion for EU to $98 billion for US aid. The American Enterprise Institute conservative think tank also confirms EU aid is significantly higher. Trump said US was $250 billion to European Union $100 billion- completely the reverse of the facts. This is one aspect of the debate with Harris that was not fact checked to reach the 67 million watching immediately similar to the FBI correction on crime rates by David Muir.   "Look, we’re in for $250 billion or more because they don’t ask Europe, which is a much bigger beneficiary to getting this thing done than we are. They’re in for $150 billion less because Biden and you don’t have the courage to ask Europe like I did with NATO. They paid billions and billions, hundreds of billions of dollars when I said either you pay up or we’re not going to protect you anymore. So that may be one of the reasons they don’t like me as much as they like weak people. But you take a look at what’s happening. We’re in for $250 to $275 billion. They’re into $100 to $150. They should be forced to equalize.”   ...

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  We show her the view from Europe on Ukraine in Feb 2025. Francois Hollande leader of the Socialists in France and former president says that the United Kingdom, France and Germany must be at the forefront of genuine European security. In this long interview he answers questions from Le Monde. He says US may withdraw its 80,000 troops from Europe in NATO. This will require European forces and European nuclear deterrent. In 1966 De Gaulle's successor president Pompidou said- "France must be returned to itself. Thus we are serving Europe and preparing the re-emergence of Europe so that it can play its part. Do not imagine that we are changing sides. We are against hegemony and so do not intend to favour Soviet hegemony, nor does our attitude towards the war in Vietnam encourage Chinese hegemony in that part of the world." Hollande says if this US withdrawal of troops from NATO happens will Article 5 will then apply to Europe? Hollande's answer is "it is upto us to prepare. Even without him."   On Merz's election as Germany's leader- Hollande says we will have to broaden the geographic scope of our deterrent force. Merz has expressed interest in nuclear deterrent from partners UK and France, France having proposed to Germany a mutual nuclear deterrent under president Pompidou, a successor to president De Gaulle in the 70's. ...

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NHK Proportional representation exit polls for Japan's  2025 elections for parliament show twice the number of people in 20's 30's and 40's voted for Sanseito over voted for the LDP. The LDP is the party that has run Japan's government for mostly all of the past 75 post war years. It is losing its touch with the common man as issues of cost of living, migration, and income mobility affect the Japanese people as they have done in Europe and the US. The two opposition parties are the Sanseito and the Democratic Party of the People formed in the last ten years to fight the entrenched LDP governments, and the Constitutional Party of Japan that has acted till now as the main Opposition Party. Not just LDP, the Constitutional Party of Japan also draws most of its support from the 50's, 60's and 70's people age groups and are being trounced by Sanseito and Democratic Party of the People with younger age groups. This is a significant observation on the direction Japan is taking with resistance to too much tourism, too much migration, and not enough attention to Japan's national interests. The LDP under Ishiba is now navigating a new environment as it looks to running the government taking credit for the US Japan Trade Agreement and working with the new parties. ...

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New legislation would permit Pemex to sign contracts with foreign oil companies for services but only on a fee or cash basis and no production sharing arrangements. Smaller or state owned oil companies may show interest as the majors have not signed up for these new arrangements.

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Frederick Harris of Columbia University says there is a price to be paid for a black president and it may just be too much for the average black person. There is a difference betwen symbols and substance, betwen a role model and accountability in a representative democracy, which is sadly lacking when the black elites, clergy and politicians fail to debate the issues about the problems facing the black community. Problems related to the increasing poverty among black Americans, and the 14% unemployment for black people. There is he says a strange reticience among the black elite to hold the president accountable on these issues just as they would have done for any Democratic president, even one who was as popular with blacks as Mr. Clinton. He says the experience with Obama is not even remotely comparable to the transformative nature of the work of Rev. Martin Luther King in the black community. It may stem from Obama's multiracial background, growing up in many countries, his elite education and being part of a liberal elite more than of the black community. The price is too high in economic and social terms for the poor or average black person and it has created a divide between the average black person and the black elite, with different concerns and different priorities. Harris points out that poor and poverty are words not mentioned often by Obama. Related to this is the foreclosure crisis in which ordinary black people were hardest hit with no effective help from the president to homeowners badly needing relief. Sheila Bair of the FDIC and Martin Feldstein advocated aggressive help for homeowners under water which did not come from the president. Showing not just the limits of a black presidency, but false hopes, inexperience and lack of leadership in issues that mattered to all Americans in the housing and foreclosure crisis. A populist from Kansas, as Sheila Bair describes herself, had the right instincts and courage of convictions which the president lacked and the entire country needed....

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Harvard loss of all federal funds for violation of Student civil rights. In a letter to Harvard's president the administration lawyers said the results of it's investigation shows Harvard violated the civil rights of students with it's indifference to the plight of Jewish students. 

“Failure to institute adequate changes immediately will result in the loss of all federal financial resources and continue to affect Harvard’s relationship with the federal government. Harvard may of course continue to operate free of federal privileges, and perhaps such an opportunity will spur a commitment to excellence that will help Harvard thrive once again.”

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The Georgetwon University Center on Education and the Workforce 2015 report shows the different college majors, annual wages and lifetime earnings based on Census Bureau data. Engineering comes first, followed by computers. Advanced graduate degrees make a large difference in earnings in health sciences. A lot depends on the standing in the class with top 25% of the class in finance having much higher earnings. A lot also depends on the individual. Employment opportunities may be lacking even if annual wages are high, as in architecture.

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In May 2014 Western Canadian oil was priced at $85 a barrel. Oil from Total's Canadian oil sands Joslyn project would have cost $90 a barrel, according to BMO Capital Markets estimates. As a result Total is putting the project on hold. After aggressive spending on exploration and development oil majors are now focussing on profitability and reducing the high capital expenditures. Shell is an example of this, where a change of CEO's is shifting priorities to shareholder interest in reducing heavy capital expenditures.

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The Economist looks at real estate markets in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Hong Kong, India and other countries in May 2013. It looks at price to disposable income and price to rent ratios and sees if these ratios are higher than historical averages to determine if prices are based on sound foundations. Canada's real estate market looks set to face problems of a bubble bursting. The U.S. recovery is seen to be based on firm foundations. Property prices are undervalued in Germany and set to rise.

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The perception of Chrysler's travails from Detroit. "Like a resourceful alley cat, disrespected, starving, kicked around, but tenacious," so begins Detroiter Tom Walsh's colum on June 11, 2009, in the Detroit Free Press. Disrespected by Ford and former Chrysler manager who left at the time Daimler took over Chrysler. Its a skinnier more haggard looking Chrysler, and Fiat may do a complete makeover starting with the product line, a Fiat small car line unlike the guzzzlers Chrysler was known for like the Dodge Ram pickup.

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An argument for more troops, as Max Boot of the Council of Foreign Relations vists Afghanistan at the request of General Petraeus. This is a local account, what is the larger picture. And can the problems of a failed Afghan government and the way American boots are seen as foreign occupiers be wished away? See the link to Kristof who says even the Punjabis in the Pakistan army are not welcomed in Pashtun land on both sides of the border, and there are 40 million Pashtuns.

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The business model where hedge funds take in short term money from investors for a 2% fee and a fifth of profits, and invest it in longer term bets and sometimes illiquid situations, is breaking down. This happened to the investment banks and ended with the collapse of Lehman and Bear Stearns. With losses approaching 20%, many illiquid investments, and investors asking for their money, this model may lead to a rapid shrinking of the hedge fund industry, which now has about $2 trillion of investor money.

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Markey and Dingell are supporting diiferent fuel efficiency standards in the House. Vote on the legislation in the House has been postponed after a meeting between Speaker Pelosi and Ed Markey. This gives Markey more time to build a consensus for stricter fuel econonomy standards among House members to be voted on later this year. Meantime rising crude oil prices which are close to $80 a barrel and reaching new highs may nudge the House in his direction while giving the automakers time to adjust their thinking.

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Is PPP Purchasing Power Parity or Market Exchange Rates the right way to measure GDP? PPP is not reliable because of the lack of reliable pricing surveys for China, but Market Exchange Rates do not correctly reflect the growth rates of emerging market countries. The answer lies somewhere in between. The PPP rates used by the World Bank for China and India are not correct and so the numbers used by the IMF and the World Bank may be overstated upto 40% but probably somewhat less.

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Chrysler under Cerberus looks likely to throw out old ideas about how the company should be run. For example whats the right size for Chrysler and how many models and sales levels and the domestic focus. a lot of these ideas may go out the window to try to get the company to operate successfully. Expect a smaller company fewer but better models, and an international focus, at sales levels way below that in the past. Profitability matters old conceptions will be tossed out.

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Some positive signs that drivers are sticking to their new fuel efficient ways even as gas prices drop below $3 a gallon in the USA mindful that the economy just got worse, jobs are shrinking, may be paying less, and the cost of groceries and other things have gone up. This will mean contiued decline in gasoline consumption that should help ease oil prices in the long run even as conservation helps reduce consumption, helps fight climate change, and sends fewer dollars overseas to pay for oil.

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The New York Times reports that comments from Obama administration officials describe an alarming loss of trust and confidence between China and the USA over the last two years. David Shambaugh, director of the China Policy program at George Washington University, says the administration had hoped to work with China on major challenges like climate change, nuclear nonproliferation, and a new global economic order. China, he says, has failed to step up and play that role. He describes the Chinese as responding as an increasingly narrow-minded, self-interested truculent, hyper-nationalist, and powerful country. Jeffrey Baker, a key China policy adviser in the White House, says China's responses reflected a sense in Beijing that China was a rising power and the USA a declining power, especially after the strong rebound of the Chinese economy after the 2008 crisis. The administration is determined to counteract that impression. Other factors complicate things. China is facing a transition to a new leadership in the next year. There are differences within the Chinese Communist party leadership ranks about the direction China should take. Trade and currency issues have come to the point where American public opinion is shifting greatly, with educated professionals changing their views on trade and currency matters. See the recent WSJ/NBC September 2010 poll on world trade, reported by Murray and Belkin in WSJ, Oct 2, 2010. The Obama administration cannot ignore the deep concerns of the American people on these issues. The House overwhelmingly voted in September to threaten China with tariffs on its exports if the Chinese currency, the renminbi, is not allowed to appreciate significantly enough (experts estimate that it is overvalued by 20%). It is not clear whether the Administration's rhetoric on this issue is to assuage public opinion in a business as usual manner, or expected to achieve substantative results to rebalance world trade. The G-20 summit in S. Korea leaves this change for well into the future- China with current account surplus of 5.8% of GDP in 2009 is expected to lower this to 4% by 2015. With the high jobless rate in the US and the large and rising current account deficit, the United States may have reached a juncture where this cannot be put off well into the future years. Other issues, the different foreign policy objectives, and differing perceptions of China and the US of each other, the relationship with US allies in the region, may create additional tensions. These tensions may be navigated by governments of both countries, but the shift in American public opinion on trade, currency and jobs issues will require tangible and real change. As trade tensions will only increase in the next two years with the lack of fiscal stimulus on the jobs front, and no significant change in jobs expected from the Fed's purchase af additional Treasury debt, and a sense that the mutual benefit in the trade relationship with China has been lost to America's serious detriment. China's position may be perceived as stronger than it really is from the faster rebound from the 2008 crisis, and may in reality not be as Jeffrey Baker sees it. As David Barboza has reported in the New York Times, and experts have pointed out, the huge amount of lending encouraged by the government has accentuated weaknesses in the Chinese economy. A significant amount has gone into real estate speculation and will only increase the bad loans on the books of China's banks. This happens at the very time that growth is expected to slow down and make it harder to absorb the bad loans, as was done in the past. ...

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There is a mixed picture behind the drop in investment in new oil exploration. The IEA estimates that overall investment will be down 15-20% in 2009. The number of drilling rigs in use globally fell 32% in the year to April 2009, to 2055, according to Baker-Hughes, an oilfield services firm. In America the number of rigs in use is down by 50%, and OPEC countries are cancelling 35 big projects, according to the OPEC secretary general, Salem Al-Badri. Cambridge Energy Associates estimates that 5.5 million barrels a day of capacity additions may not take place in the next couple of years, which is a third of expected net increase by 2014. Examine this a bit more closely and you find that the oil majors despite lack of access to oil in inhospitable terrain or foreign countries, are still holding up well in investment. Exxon increased capital spending by 5% in the 1st quarter 2009, and Shell and Chevron plan to invest the same in 2009 as in 2008, $31 billion and $23 billion. BP plans to go from $21 billion to $20 billion. Canadian Tar Sands investments are being reevaluated in the light of prices, and smaller companies like Devon Energy are cutting back, for Devon from $9 billion in 2008 to $4 billion in 2009. From the national oil companies the investments are holding up in Saudi Arabia, whereas they are faltering in Russia and cash strapped Venezuela. Saudi Aramco recently completed a 5 year project increasing capacity from 10m b/d to 12.5 b/d at cost of $70 billion. And another $60 billion is set aside for more investments which will be less vigorously pursued as Saudis have 4.5m b/d of idle capacity after production cutbacks by OPEC. Petrobras plans to increase its investment by 55% to $174 billion in the next 5 years in offshore discoveries challenged by deep waters and thick layers of salt. The oilfield services companies like Schlumberger are cutting back, with Schlumberger cutting investment in 2009 by 13% to $2.6 billion and shedding 5000 jobs. Baker Hughes shed 3000 jobs. Mature fields are also receiving less investment, so that the drop from mature fields will be 9.4% according to IEA instead of 7.7% projected earlier with larger investments. The picture described above shows investments by the Saudis, the majors, oil field services firms, investments in recovery improvements in mature fields, not in a precipitious decline. The picture is of cautious and careful investment and some pullbacks as the economies of the US suffered decline in GDP of 6% in the 1st quarter 2009 over prior year and the German and Japanese economies suffered decline of 15-16%. Even the most optimistic forecasts for China do not go above 8% for 2009. In the light of these growth estimates the moderate drop in investments in new oil exploration may match the moderation in growth in Asia and the drop in growth in the USA and Europe and Japan. The forecasts of steeply higher oil prices or spikes like those in 2007-2008 are based on the notion of a quick economic recovery. See the links to economic recovery on this. These links suggest that the current surge may not last as the basics for a recovery are weak. In the US foreclosures, toxic assets, housing, consumption and savings, and unemployment all indicate a weak economy for several years down the road. And it is this weakness that the oil investment exploration budgets may be responding to in amoderated manner. The latest sign of this weakness is the spread of foreclosures to prime borrowers with job losses, link NYT May 24, 2009. The Saudi king thinks that $75 is a fair price for oil. Current prices have taken oil to $60 a barrel, even as inventories remain strong with over 60 days of supply. No spikes like those in the past are realistic in this economic environment....

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The WSJ/Vistage U.S. Small Business Confidence Index ends 2013 at a new high of 108.4 reflecting optimism of small business owners. The Index for 2013 shows a sharp drop by November 2012 to about 82 followed by a sharp increase for Dec. 2013 to about 94, and a similiar pattern is observed as it declines to about 95 in October 2013 and increases to 108.4 in December 2013. The sequester and deadlock in talks by Nov. 2012, and the government shutdown and its resolution by Dec. 2013 are likely causes. The Dec. 2013 Ryan-Murray budget agreement points the way out of political uncertainty that Vanguard CEO McNabb pointed to as a primary obstacle to investment and growth. This may be the strongest indicator of what lies ahead for 2014- 52% of 937 small business owners surveyed online in the Index in Dec. 2013, say the economy has improved in 2013, an increase from 36% in 2012. And 38% say they expect conditions to be still better in 2014, from the prior years 27%. Small business owners polled have sales less than $20 million and fewer than 500 employees. They are the main engine for growth in employment. Loten cites small business owners in construction and other industries who have increased hiring and expect to see a significant improvement in 2014. One owner who represents the pattern taken by small business, cut back employees by 2010, and held back on investment till 2012, increased investment in 2013 and is now expanding. Availability of credit with improved bottom lines and banks more willing to lend will be another positive in 2014-2015....

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Steve Jobs, the co-founder of Apple and its CEO, passed away on September 5, 2011. He helped create the Macintosh, the iPod, iTunes, the iPhone and the iPad, changing the way people work, listen to music, or work and communicate with portable handheld devices. He made significant contributions through the devices he helped create by making them easy to use, look and feel good. By making as he said "the whole widget," both the software, hardware and other design, and a relentless focus on how the products worked in the hands of consumers, Jobs was able to come up with unique products like the Mac, iPod, iphone, and the iPad. The pioneering work of Jobs began early, in 1977 with the first Macintosh computer, and continued through 2010 with the introduction of the iPad. Jobs first first period at Apple lasted from 1976 to 1985, closing when Jobs left the company after differences with then CEO John Sculley. He rejoined the company in 1996 when Apple acquired Next, the company founded by Jobs in the intervening period. The first period saw the emergence of Microsoft in the personal computer world. In 1997 Apple accepted an investment of $150 million from Microsoft and told Mac fans that "we want to let go off this notion that for Apple to win, Microsoft has to loose." Microsofts Office software could be used on Mac computers by this arrangement and helped Apple survive this period. Later in a 2005 address at Stanford University, Jobs told students about the first period: "The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life." Jobs personal story is of being college dropout from Reed College, Oregon, where he dropped out after one semester in 1972, because of financial issues. He then worked parttime at Atari, and in 1975 associated with the Homebrew Computer Club where he met Apple co-founder Wozniak. He was the son of unwed parents, University of Wisoconsin grad student Joanne Carole Schieble and a Syrian exchange student Abdulfattah Jandali. He was adopted by Paul and Clara Jobs shortly after birth. ...

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Some of the roots of the Alawite role in Syria go back to the colonial period. Alawites are a Muslim sect living in the coastal mountainous region of Syria in towns such as Tartus, Latakia and in the mountains. The French setup a Alawite state in 1924-1936 before it was merged with the rest of Syria. The Russians have set up a small naval base in Tartus. As the Free Syrian Army reaches Damascus and suburbs the Assad regime is expected to move to Tartus and the coastal region and mountains. This account by NYT reporters from the area reveal the unreal nature of the conflict and the Assad regime. The seaside town of Tartus swells with people fleeing Damascus and other cities, with people from the Assad regime or allied to it, and the real estate market booms. During the same week other accounts in the NYT reported accounts of cluster bombs being used against civilians by the Assad regime. The civil war brought artillery attacks and air raids by the predominantly Alawite Assad military regime on mostly Sunni civilian populations thorough most of 2012. The Russians, the Assad military and public officials, living what may be the last weeks of this civil war as it takes on a sectarian nature, in some kind of bubble. From the international community only France, Turkey, Britain, and Egypt may retain credibility in Syria after the passive role of the U.S. under president Obama to the struggle for freedom in Syria. The U.S. Democratic administration's distaste for engagements overseas may have carried it to the point of standing by as artillery was turned against a civilian population. France and Britain's role in the Libyan people's struggle, and its lower profile assistance to the freedom struggle in Syria compared to the earlier effort under president Sarkozy, still creates a measure of respect. A no fly zone by the U.S. would have prevented the destruction to civilian population that occurred and salvaged U.S. respect, at very little cost relative to the one trillion dollars spent in Iraq and Afghanistan....

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How Lehman Brothers CEO underestimated the situation facing his firm and failed to realize the true extent of the economic environment that the country is facing. He did not move fast enough for the speed with things deteriorate in this new environment which is nothing like the environment they faced before. In the end he held out for a better deal when he was negotiating with potential partners till the other side walked away. As a trader who led the firm for 14 years he was used to snap decisions so when he negotiated with Korea Development Bank and things were difficult he grew frustrated according to the Wall Street Journal and threw up his arms and the meeting ended. After the two sides parted subsequent talks faltered. At that August meeting the Korea bank proposed to invest $4 billion to $6 billion into Lehman and on the other side the CEO of Korea Development Bank had once been the head of Lehman Brothers in South Korea. The Journal report says that the Koreans felt their approach was realistic and were prepared to move forward but that Mr. Fuld was holding out for a better deal. The Koreans would have received a large stake in the firm. But not reaching the deal in the negotiation with the Koreans in June and then again in August and not marking down the firm's large holdings of real estate to reflect new conditions, and relying too much on the access to capital from the Fed, may all prove to be the undoing of Lehman because its stock has dropped precipitiously in the last few days losing more than 40% of it value in one day and then continuing down a slippery slope. Mr Fuld has led the company for 14 years and is the decision maker in this company, being called by employees as "the chairman" or "the gorilla". In these 14 years he gained a reputation for driving hard deals and in this case he may have not realized the crtical situation the company faces required a more urgent approach and a willingness to consider different deals some of which may have led to giving up some of the complete independence with which he operated....

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Russian ambassador to Kabul Mr Kabulov talks about his experience in the Russian Afghan war when was the top KGB person in Kabul. He describes what he learned from the war, which he is telling Americans there and Nato forces leaders there. He makes a couple of important points. First, he says the Soviet record is largely unknown or unpresented, when it comes to helping modernize Afghan society in the cities like Kabul. This modernizing mission led to billions of rubles being spent on education, advancing the role of women, and building roads, dams and an industrial infrastructure. Of the mistakes Americans are making, he lists them one by one. "Because we deployed very easily into the major cities, we did'nt give much thought to what was happening in the countryside." He says there is an "irritative allergy" in the countryside, which is hard to control in a vast mountainous region, has historical basis which the British experienced, and is easy to stir up by sending large number of troops from European or Western powers. When these troops have to take retailatory steps such as destroying villages where insurgents are found along with the civilians there. That is why he thinks increasing American troop levels to double troop strength from current Nato levels of 65,000, can only stir up this"irritative allergy." The Soviets had 140,000 troops and this did not help. What he thinks would have beeen better was to let the Afghan army do the job, and for the Russians to say goodbye. America may be about to do just that, but in the meantime there may be an effort to create a respected Afghan government and army which inspires confidence and support in the meantime. What is clearly different here is that America is not fighting a proxy war with a superpower, and it is fighting awar for the soul of Pakistan now, so that at some point the wholehearted support of the people of Pakistan may be marshalled, especially if the Taliban alienate moderate Islamic Pakistanis and America can wean away Afghan Islamic moderates and get rural support from tribes and other sources....