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The Roberts Supreme Court's liberal leaning tendency with swing Justice Anthony Kennedy in 2014-2015. Bravin describes the tendency of the Robert's court to stay with the status quo. Restraint and stability appear to be strong preferences for Justices Kennedy and Roberts as seen in the ruling on the Affordable Care Act, and in the ruling on the Environmental Protection Agency. The four liberal Justices on the court, Kagan, Sotomayor, Breyer, and Ginsburg voted consistently together in 2015.

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A range of opinion from concern for the sourcing of products from a country with no environmental or other regulation, concern for Chinese workers exposed to toxic substances, to concern for hundreds of millions of Chinese children exposed to leaded paints from aa Professor of Environmental Health. The Professor states that 5 of 11 brands of paint that he bought in China had 100 times the US limit, and calls for a Chinese ban on lead in paints.

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Yuen Yuen Ang presents the view that China is an autocracy with democracy characteristics. Her view of Xi is conventional reflecting contemporary ideas. Yet Xi was profoundly influenced by his father Xi Zhongxun and mother Qi Xin, revolutionary heroes in the fight against the British, Japanese and Chiang Nationalists which shape his view of the world. Zhongxun also shaped the response to the struggle for modernization after failures of the Maoist period, in efforts he made under Deng. In this sense he adapted to different conditions. This view of China's leaders is that they are intuitive and human, that China is simply responding intuitively under Xi to the conditions it faces and perceptions about these conditions to maintain the wellbeing of the vast majority of the Chinese people after the century of struggles 1850-1950 and later missteps. The experiment with capitalism and a new generation with no memories of the past meant to Xi and other Chinese leaders that everything that an earlier generation (his own parents) had fought for in the struggle against the British and Japanese invasions could be lost quickly, if China was allowed to fall into the kind of corruption and self-seeking leaders that marked the Chiang regime of the 1930's. This led to the effort to consolidate the gains of the Chinese nation made over 2 centuries since the rise of the British in Asia in 1800, with Xi seeing no choice but to take responsibility and the initiative as his father Zhongxun had done in the 1930's and 1940's to breakout of isolated regions in the north of China. The sudden shift to adapt to open covid policy is also apparent from Zhongxun's ability to adapt to and lead the changes after Deng's experiment with a market economy. A report by Rohan Premkumar in the Hindu on Jan 25 on a British sub-jail in the Nilgiri hills of Tamilnadu shows prisoners from the Opium wars with China sent to this jail by the British. These events still shape Chinese perceptions of the world- the backwardness in faceoffs with the west and the cost to the mainland Asian nations India and China. Inland river based civilizations on the Ganges and the Yangtze that failed, as Adam Smith says in The Wealth of Nations, to change in ways that the Renaissance  and the Industrial Revolution changed Europe. ...

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Hillary Clinton narrowly loses the Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders in March 2016, as the Sanders campaign focusses on Clinton's support for trade agreements that hurt American workers and lead to loss of manufacturing jobs. About three fifths of voters in the Michigan primary considered this a major issue. Many less educated younger workers see their job prospects diminish and wages drop with free trade that hurts American manufacturing jobs. Bill Clinton signed the NAFTA agreement with Mexico, and as a member of the Obama administration Clinton supported the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, later opposing TPP when she left the cabinet. Sentiment against trade that hurts manufacturing jobs in the U.S. is strongest in midwestern states such as Michigan, Ohio and Illinois. This was also a major issue benefitting the Liberals under Justin Trudeau who won in Canada's industrial Ontario province which has suffered hollowing out and loss of manufacturing jobs under the Conservative Harper administration. In the U.S. the issue goes back to the Clinton Administration for two decades. New jobs created by Apple, Google, and other tech companies pale in comparison with the industrial jobs created in another era that benefitted working class families. This issue and high unemployment or under employment, lower wages for working class families, was a major issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign. Widening wealth disparities, and lack of upward mobility, high tution and healthcare costs for ordinary families, dominated the campaign in the U.S....

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In the third Democratic presidential debate in Dec. 2013 Hillary Clinton came out looking much stronger than Sanders and Malloy. She described the Sanders government programs to make helath care and college free as too expensive requiring a 40% increase in federal spending, or $18 trillion-$20 trillion. Clinton said "we have to be really thoughtful about how we're going to afford what we propose." And said she would not increase taxes on those making less than $250,000 a year. On foreign policy issues she differed with Sanders and Malloy on the Assad regime and civilian deaths in Syria, saying Sanders had supported the removal of the Qaddafi regime in Libya. She used her long experience as Secretary of State to display a better command of the issues. On Hillary Clinton's comment about Donald Trump's statement for barring Muslims from entry into the U.S., that it was becoming a recruiting tool for ISIS videos, a NYT fact check shows no proof of this. Clinton said she preferred not to turn the issue of terrorism into a clash of civilizations with Islam, as her Republican opponents have done....

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The Washington Post's veteran Middle East correspondent, Jim Hoagland, says there are some important lessons to take from the experience in Libya. The Arab rulers who entrenched themselves for decades wasted the bulk of their oil wealth. It was right for Palestinians to disassociate themselves from these regimes. The French took the brunt of the fight in helping Libya free itself from the Gaddafi regime. This is an understatement as without Sarkozy's initative and Cameron's unflagging support, without France and Britain's early support, Gaddafi's forces would have overrun Benghazi and ended the struggle for democracy in this part of the Arab world. U.S. President Obama and Defense Secretary Gates did little in the early days when there was dire need. Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel continuously resisted supporting France and Britain in Libya. The U.S. Obama administration and Turkey gave their support only after the perilous period- when the fate of the rebels fighting for freedom hung on a thread- was past. Hoagland calls Gates view of "feckless Europeans" shortsighted. Hoagland sees this as an opportunity for Europe to take a larger more active role. ...

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Samuelson warns that turning seniors into a protected class making no sacrifices whatsoever, will mean shrinking all other social programs, defense and investments in education and infrastructure. This is the reality of the budget deficits facing the U.S. He cites the Congressional Budget Office projections that even with cutting defense and non defense discretionary spending by a third, the U.S. risks a deficit in 2023 of about 6.75% of the economy or gross domestic product (GDP). To cover this would require $1 trillion in higher taxes, an increase of a third above the 1970-2011 average. He says Democrats are using demagoguery and intimidation on this issue, and ironically even Paul Ryan's proposal reflects a desire not to touch seniors benefits and willingness to pass on the costs to the young to pay for these programs. Social Security and Medicare are a critical part of the American fabric, and no one wants to dismantle them, it is about modernizing them to reflect higher life expectancy and larger wealth accumulated by the elderly compared to previous generations, and to reduce the burden on the young. ...

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German banks hold $28 billion euros or $37 billion in Greek bonds according to Barclays Capital using IMF data. This debt is now rated as junk by Standard and Poor's since last week. Just one bank, Hypo Real Estate, now owned by the German government after a bailout has $10.5 billion of Greek bonds. This gives a new twist to what is happening in Greece, with Germany involved through the support its own banks would need if Greece defaulted and these bonds become worthless. Total debt holdings of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain for example at Hypo Real Estate is $52 billion. France is also heavily involved through its banks. It has $67 billion in holdings, including $9 billion held by the Bank of France, according to Barclays. According to BIS data American banks hold $16.6 billion in Greek debt. Even the healthy large Spanish banks like Santander have their problems, with Santander having $64 billion of assets in Portugal, according to analysts at Nomura in London. In Spain most of the bad debt problems are concentrated in the midsize banks, but if Portugal were to take a hit then the large banks would be affected adversely....

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Views of East Germans in the city of Erfurt on the eve of the 20th anniversary of Germany's reunification. Disparities remain after over a trillion dollars were invested to improve conditions in East Germany, yet the positive changes are visible. In this city of Erfurt the burning of lowgrade coal for heating homes made the air less breathable. It could take years just to buy a car. Still Germans in the east are disappointed, as their expectations were high during reunification. Wages in the east are 80% of wages in the west and unemployment is 12%, and the average wealth of east Germans is 40% lower than west Germans. Young people have immigrated to the west, leaving older people and retirees. Because of this the term reunification is less used than the term "die Wende"- meaning the turn or the change. A sense of the loss of the old values forged in a socialist state is still felt deeply by some east Germans and the change has been largely positive but wrenching in terms of a loss of identity, a sense of being treated as immigrants in their own country....

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Alexandra Stevenson provides this insightful glimpse into a highly inflated property market. Microflats in Hong Kong of 275 square feet, smaller than a bedroom, sell for $722,000. Smaller flats of 165 square feet are planned by developers. Since 2003 property prices are up 300% in Hong Kong. Experts see another fall in prices similiar to the one in 2003 during the Asian financial crisis. Mainland Chinese investing in Hong Kong flats have never experienced a collapse in prices. Hong Kong mortgage rates are low, about 2%. Experts see a rise in U.S. interest rates affecting buyers, as Hong Kong interest rates are tied to U.S. interest rates. With low rates on savings accounts, savings are going into an highly inflated unsustainable property market. One estimate shows 41% of household wealth in China is tied up in the property market. A downturn in prices could lead to a large decline in consumer spending. Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute of International Economics sees China not immune to the kind of housing price collapse that hit the U.S., Spain and other countries in the last decade....

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China's new urbanization plan is for 60% of the population to be urban residents by 2020, up from 52% at the end of 2012. The plan will relax "hukou" residency restrictions, and about 45% of the population will qualify for benefits and services such as pensions and education that are given to qualifying urban residents. Premier Li Keqiang says this will boost growth as domestic consumption is seen as the main growth driver for the future. The cabinet said on a government website that "domestic demand is the fundamental driver of our nation's economic development, and urbanization has the greatest potential to expand domestic demand." Fast rail will be provided to urban areas with population over 500,000 and rail to urban areas with population over 200,000 by 2020. About 90% of the population will be within reach of a nearby airport. Relaxation of "hukou" restrictions will be made for mainly smaller cities. Two decades of industrialization has led to concentration of wealth, with much smaller disposable incomes left for the majority of the population to create a sudden surge in consumer spending, as pointed out by Orlik....

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The ruble has stabilized by April 1, 2014 following Russian intervention in the Crimea and western sanctions. It reached record lows of 37 to the dollar from a range of 29-33 rubles to the dollar since 2011. To stabilize the ruble the Bank of Russia says it spent about $24 billion in March 2014. The Russian Finance Ministry held its first auction of Treasury bonds on April 2, 2014 with yields increasing to 9% from 8% in February. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says the ministry will resume daily purchases of foreign currencies of about $100 million- stopped since March 4, 2014- to replenish its sovereign wealth fund. Bank of Russia head, Ms. Nabiullina, says consumer inflation will exceed the target of 5% and economic growth is likely to fall below 1%. The crisis come at a bad time for Russia as it has slowed economic growth when growth had already fallen sharply in 2013. Russia plans to introduce its own payments system to reduce dependence on Visa Inc., and introduce its own credit ratings system as S&P, Moody's lowered its credit ratings....

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The new oil law allowing foreign oil companies to compete with Pemex passes the Senate in Mexico and now goes to the lower house. The legislation removes the 4 oil worker union's representatives from the 15 person Board of Pemex. The oil law now leaves only a 10 member board- five appointed by the government and five independent members approved by the Senate. Because past opening of investment by the private sector in state owned railways and telecom sectors has led to wealth passing into the hands of a few business owners and worsening competitiveness, there is concern in Mexico about how this law will be implemented so that it benefits Mexico and Mexicans through foreign investment in the oil industry. Leftist parties are pushing a bill in the lower house to allow a referendum on the oil law by 2015 if 1.6 million signatures are collected. Oil experts point to foreign investment in the Mexican oil industry as further enhancing the prospects of North American oil production in comparison to the position of Middle East oil producers, because of Mexico's large shale oil and gas reserves and the prospects for new exploration in deep waters. ...

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Chile is relatively better off than other Latin American economies because of the $20 billion in its sovereign wealth fund. This helps the government carry out astimulus of $4 billion. This includes additional $1 billion in investments for state owned copper company Codelco, $700 million for infrastructure projects, extra benefits for poorer Chileans, temporary tax cuts for small businesses. Government spending will rise by about 11% in 2009. Public debt is minimal at 4% of GDP in December 2008, and the fiscal deficit for 2009 is estimated at 2.9% of GDP. The copper prices have dropped by two thirds, but the decision to save much of the reevenue gained when copper prices rose is now showing up as an extremely wise decision and one that is critical for crisis prone Latin American economies. Inflation that rose to 9.9% for 2008 to October to 7.1% in December, and should fall witin the 2-4% range says one economist by the end of 2009. In addition to the other moves the government has given a$500 million capital boost to BancoEstado, a stateowned bank which is Chile's third largest bank, to support expanded lending for mortgages and small businesses.. ...

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Contrary to earlier media reports of Mr Naimi the Saudi oil minister saying that the market was healthy and "well balanced" and that no cuts were expected, it turns out that after extensive debate the OPEC ministers agreed on a cut of 520,000 barrels a day or less than 1% of the world's oil supply. It would put OPEC production back to 32.7 million barrels a day same as the first 3 months of 2008. This was done to avert excess supply in the market but Algeria's oil minister said that this would not affect the downward trend in prices as buyer nations in USA and Europe had already built up supply inventories from weaker demand. Iran, Libya and Algeria argued that there was a supply glut or imbalance from reduced demand. OPEC President is Chakib Khelil of Algeria. Russia's top energy ministers and head of Roseft attended ths OPEC meeting. Sechin head of Rosneft Russia's largest oil company run by the government said tht Russia is preparing a memorandum of understanding for deeened cooperation with OPEC. At tis point OPEC supplie 40% of the world's energy, Russia supplies another 11%. ...

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Amy Chua interviewed in her office on the Yale campus. She relates democracy to ethnicity and has a book on this. This creates complex situations which need to be recognized and democracy has to be crafted for that special situation. As for instance Stiglitz describes the succesful effort by Malays under Tunku Abdul Rahman in post independence Malaysia to make provisons for economic protections for the native Malay peoples within the democracy crafted for Malaysia. Carothers of the Carnegie Endowment points to post colonialism experiences in some countries. " Many of the problems that countries face are the legacy of European colonialism not United States policy. Why should democracy get blamed for failed empire?" In these countries their own unique situation, history, culture, time and place requires crafting and using free markets and democracy ideas with a healthy mix of measures the state can take to protect the weaker interests in society to achieve economic progress and fair distribution of benefits to all parts of society in the same way that the US and European countries with their different situations are doing in their individual circumstances. ...

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Pakistan has always suffered from tax collection that is some of the poorest in the world. This leaves little money for badly needed infrastructure and roads. At a time when countries such as Indonesia and India are rapidly building roads and infrastructure, Pakistan depends on projects and financing almost entirely from China.  This means dependence on foreign debt financing such as that of the $2 billion Orange Line, Pakistan's first Metro line in Lahore. This is one of the first projects one of $16 billion in projects started from a planned $62 billion under China's Belt and Road Initiative. The problem is that taking on so much debt leaves Pakistan dependent on Chinese financing, with increased debt payments leading to a debt crisis. External debt will double to over $100 billion from a little over $50 billion in 2013, according to the IMF, reaching 30% of GDP. External financing needs have doubled from 4% of GDP or about $10 billion in 2013-2015 period doubling to over $20 billion and 8% of GDP. A steep increase in debt in a space of only 3 years. Pakistan faces problems similar to that faced by other countries including Ceylon, Burma. Pakistan has fallen behind on debt payments for electricity projects, because of problems getting Pakistanis to pay electric bills. Other problems are that the projects use Chinese workers and Chinese contractors so that they do not generate jobs the way projects would normally generate domestic jobs and growth including pushing domestic firms up the experience and knowledge curve in construction and technology. The opaqueness of the deals lead to a lack of required transparency. The projects also lack the almost zero interest financing from Japan of projects such as the first bullet train in India on Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor because of the lack of negotiating leverage and other problems.  By early fall 2018 Pakistan is expected to seek IMF financing, which would lead to conditions set by the IMF on how much it can borrow and spend under the Belt and Road Initiative, known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC. This means effectively that the Wst will bail out a country after investments under the Belt and Road Initiative. ...

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Michael Barbaro describes how Romney reflected on his loss for the Republican nomination and worked hard to get things right in 2012. Romney does not see himself in the way voters did in 2008- as uncaring, emotionally detached, and somehow not authentic.

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Hamdi Ulukaya on how he started the Chobani brand of yogurt and the company from an idea and a postcard about a Kraft yogurt plant put up for sale in Columbus, New York. Here Hamdi is interviewed by the WSJ's Sarah Needleman. He describes how he developed the recipe with a master yogurt maker from his home country of Turkey, knowing that he had only one shot to get it right. That included pricing because Greek yogurt is costlier to make. The idea came from the postcard which made Hamdi think about the fact that always astonished him- that there was no quality yogurt in the U.S. He hired five people in the plant, had the walls painted, and the master yogurt maker as the sixth employee. The yogurt was introduced in 2007. The pricing had to be right- costing betwen $1.00 and $1.30, not too high. He decided on giving out free samples to get people introduced to the product and had a sampling truck go around the country, similiar to what Ben & Jerry's did with their ice cream in the early days. To avoid costly ad campaigns Chobani was introduced using bloggers, Facebook and Twitter to reach consumers directly....

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David Brooks of the NYT describes the approach taken by British prime minister David Cameron and his Conservative Party government to help the working class poor in Britain, and tackle the social roots of poverty. He says an American adaptation similar to this is badly needed in the Republican Party, with the candidates in the election providing solutions from an old rulebook. Only after Trump's popularity with appeals to less educated older Americans has the Republican leadership responded, with Speaker Ryan helping organize a forum on poverty under the Jack Kemp Foundation- emphasis was placed on education, work, opportunity and accountability for anti-poverty programs in the discussion moderated by Ryan and Senator Tim Scott. Less attention was paid to the other social aspects mentioned here by Brooks, and cited by Cameron when he described the inadequacy of traditional solutions from the right and left of the political spectrum. Cameron outlined the principles of his anti-poverty plans called "Life Chances Strategy," in a speech on Jan. 11, 2016, in north London, with the entrie transcript on the gov.uk website. Cameron acknowledged in the speech that social issues including single parent families, and other social problems such as long term unemployment, can make it harder for some people to use self-reliance and personal responsibility in a growing economy as a way to grasp opportunities. Cameron proposes a combination of economic, social and job growth strategies. His second term plans include 30 hours a week of free childcare for 3 and 4 year olds so both parents can work, parental maternity leave, expansion of Troubled Families Program, in addition to the introduction of National Living Wage, tax cuts, universal credit. In tackling social aspects of the problem Cameron cited the need for development in the early years of childhood, the huge importance of family, social connections and experiences, informal mentors, cultural experiences, broadenend horizons, that enable young people to acquire language skills, character and resilience. Second term projects include expanding reach of high performing schools to deprived areas, emphasis on core English, math, science, history, geography Ebacc skills, a 1 billion pound investment in the National Citizens Service by 2021, a plan to transform housing estates including rebuilding from scratch, additional 1 billion pounds to provide mental health treatment including treatment within 2 weeks in homes and communities. Throughout Cameron's "Life Chances strategy" is aimed at tackling not just the material dimensions of poverty, but also what he describes is broken in Britain- "the paucity of opportunity."...

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As the coronavirus surges in India with over 300,000 cases a day on April 26, a clear picture on the vaccination drive in the country is critical. The following is the picture of the vaccination progress from Union Health Ministry in India as shown in The Hindustan Times. India has vaccinated 140 million people with at least one dose says this report in The Hindustan Times.  On Saturday 24th April 2.4 million doses were given for that day at 8 pm. This was done over 99 days. This means about 12% of the population of 1.2 billion has been vaccinated.  This compares with the vaccination in Germany for about 21% of people vaccinated with over 18 million getting the first dose in Germany by around April 25. Both Germany and India have suffered from vaccine shortages, some skepticism about vaccinations. Gradually sentiment is shifting in both countries so that once skeptical Germany now has about 75% of people willing to take vaccine on April 25, 2021. In India about 6 million healthcare workers have 2 doses of vaccine, and about 9 million have 1 dose. About 6 million frontline workers have 2 doses and 12 million frontline workers have 1 dose of vaccine.  There is a shortage of vaccine supplies and a bold decision was made by the Indian government on April 25th 2021, after the surge of cases to a world wide maximum of over 300,000 cases a day. The decision was to give immediate regulatory approval for the three major vaccines in the US to be brought and used in India. And delivery will be speeded up - no customs duties and fast processing of supplies access to speedy logistical supply routes. This is a huge step forward for the vaccination drive as this means Pfizer, Moderna and J&J vaccines can now be used in India. The government is also urging the companies to make in India or export to India with prices that provide flexibility in pricing for the private market. The locally produced Covishield Astra Zeneca based vaccine produced by Serum Institute will be allowed to be sold to the private market at 600 rupees or close to about $10. Pfizer and Moderna, J&J can price in a way that would be somewhere around this price range. The access to more vaccines and the ability of the companies to make a reasonable profit in the Indian private market means that vaccine supplies should open up in May and June.  This could give a huge boost to vaccination numbers so that India's vaccination percentage of population vaccinated should keep up with that in countries like Germany and France that were slower to get started in Europe but are now catching up quickly. This is a massive achievement because the population numbers are huge compared to Europe. ...

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After the German election the next election in France in 2022 will provide new direction for Europe. As in Germany with Olaf Scolz of the Social Democrats, in France an alternative is emerging with Xavier Bertrand of the Les Republicains. Like Scholz Bertrand was Labor Minister working to tackle difficult problems of increasing employment in the French economy going back a decade. In recent elections the party French president Emmanuel Macron created as a member of Francois Hollande's government has floundered. Macron hastily put together the En Marche in Amiens on April 16, 2017, when he was minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs in the government of president Hollande. During the eight year period in which the centre right Christian Democrats CDU and center left Social Democrats SPD had ruled in a coalition government in Germany some version of centrist politics and government had also prevailed in France. After the Sarkozy years 2007-2012 under the centre right Les Republicains party  France turning to the centre left Socialists under Francois Hollande. As a young minister 39 years Macron lacked experience, and the initial enthusiasm that helped him win the 2017 presidential election is now missing. As in Germany voters are looking for change not just in slogans but in substance in a new Trans Atlantic partnership of US, Germany and France to tackle the may problems that were neglected in the last two decades of changing administrations in US and France and the Merkel administration in Germany- problems of social cohesion, of income inequality, division of country into rural and urban, eastern and western in Germany, southern and northern in the US, neglect of infrastructure, and failure to invest in the future.  France is now turning to the Les Republicains party in recent elections, and away from Le Pen's far right party and Macron's party.  Both Macron and Le Pen did very poorly in recent regional elections. This report in FR24 points out that the candidate for the Les Republicains party will be chosen at a convention, and not at a primary as happened in 2017 leading to the elimination of former Republicains president Nicholas Sarkozy. The president of the Haute France regional council Xavier Bertrand is the leading candidate from the regional election results. Bertrand was Sarkozy's minister of Labor and Solidarity from 2007 to 2009, and Minister of Labor, Employment and Health in 2009. Today Olaf Scholz, winner of the German elections in September 2021 was also Minister of Labor- in the Social Democrats/ Greens government under Gerhard Schroeder 1998 to 2005. Voters now realize that it is important to value experience, stability, combined with humility and a determination to get things done, compared to charismatic leaders with little to show in results, and tangible improvements in the quality of life, in national renewal.      ...