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The second proposal by the DJT administration is described by the WSJ as being one that may be worse than the first for Ukraine as it opens up repayment of the money US gave as aid to Ukraine to defend against Russian invasion. DJT administration maintains it is $350 billion not the $100 billion Ukraine and the EU say Ukraine received in US aid. In this report Ukrainians say the Ukraine parliament would never be able to pass such an agreement and it sets up more difficulties in US Ukraine peace negotiations if released. The US proposal would set up an entity called the US Ukraine Reconstruction Fund. This fund would have first right to all infrastructure and minerals projects in Ukraine. It's approval would be required for other investors to invest in Ukraine infrastructure and mineral projects. It is written as a commercial agreement, not as a nation to nation agreement. Scott Bessent who runs Treasury is a finance executive overseeing the negotiation and this proposal. He worked for George Soros Fund and provided advice for the bet on the British pound during a difficult time for the UK economy that led to a billion dollar gain for Soros Fund. DJT is a real estate developer. As a result their thinking is based on their experience in the US real estate and capital markets.     ...

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The view of regional Fed presidents indicates that the Fed may take a pause from any further intervention in financial markets. QE 2 was launched at a time when the government was at a deadlock for any further stimulus, and a deflationary trend was setting in. In August of 2010 inflation was on a downward trajectory, from 2.8% to less than 2.2% in a few months. A New York Times article by Paul Krugman pointed out the dangers of deflation. Alan Blinder argued for the need for Fed action with the deadlock in government over further stimulus in another op-ed in the Wall Street Journal at the time. The political deadlock continues with pressure to cut federal spending to reduce the deficit, reducing the chances of government support, and leaving the Fed as the sole source of support. The Fed initiated QE 2 in Novemeber 2010 when consumer prices were up 1.1% from a year earlier, and far below the Fed's 2% goal. In April 2011 consumer prices were up 3.1% over the prior year. Current TIPS prices suggest investor expectations of inflation of 2.8% over 5 years. Another deflationary trend could lead the Fed to take some sort of action in the presence of a political deadlock for government action....

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The title says it all. The Jobs bank the United Autoworkers trade union in the US setup in GM in 1984 threatened American automaker GM's very survival in 2006. It put workers who were not needed at GM in a jobs bank. It basically meant the idled workers -many of them close to retirement -would stay there till they retired doing nothing collecting full salary. As Mohandas Gandhi had done for India in Hind Swaraj in 1910, the American labor movement needs to look at itself in the mirror if labor is to find its way into a world of dignity and fairness in wages that Mr.Biden truly seeks for American workers.   It was setup when GM had 45% of the US market and 415,000 workers. By 2006 113,000 workers were not needed with GM having lost marketshare to Japanese makers and the Jobs bank was costing GM about $10 million a week, half a billion a year threatening its survival. The Labor movement and the UAW union did nothing to fight its own membership and set it on the right course in union with management, putting at risk the very foundation that labor had put in place since Wilson, FDR and Truman for  fairness in wages and working conditions. Jeremy Peters tells the story in the NYT. That it was recent as 2006 and shows how much had gone wrong with the labor movement and the failure of its leaders to do the right thing. The Jobs Bank says NYT was intended to prevent manufacturers from shifting manufacturing overseas, instead it did just that by undermining confidence in unions and the American labor movement, and in American workers. Two crippling wars initiated by Republicans Bush and continued by Democrat Obama, disinvestment in American manufacturing, companies like Apple shifting their entire manufacturing through outshoring to Taiwan and China, the 2009 crisis from deregulation of American banks, led to the loss of not one, but two decades for America. In today's news a modest $2 in minimum wage increase from $15 to $17 over 3 years is all that New York governor Kathy Hochul could get- even though Assembly Democrats were asking for more- to give American workers and families a fair wage to meet the cost of living crisis.  ...

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Yuen Yuen Ang presents the view that China is an autocracy with democracy characteristics. Her view of Xi is conventional reflecting contemporary ideas. Yet Xi was profoundly influenced by his father Xi Zhongxun and mother Qi Xin, revolutionary heroes in the fight against the British, Japanese and Chiang Nationalists which shape his view of the world. Zhongxun also shaped the response to the struggle for modernization after failures of the Maoist period, in efforts he made under Deng. In this sense he adapted to different conditions. This view of China's leaders is that they are intuitive and human, that China is simply responding intuitively under Xi to the conditions it faces and perceptions about these conditions to maintain the wellbeing of the vast majority of the Chinese people after the century of struggles 1850-1950 and later missteps. The experiment with capitalism and a new generation with no memories of the past meant to Xi and other Chinese leaders that everything that an earlier generation (his own parents) had fought for in the struggle against the British and Japanese invasions could be lost quickly, if China was allowed to fall into the kind of corruption and self-seeking leaders that marked the Chiang regime of the 1930's. This led to the effort to consolidate the gains of the Chinese nation made over 2 centuries since the rise of the British in Asia in 1800, with Xi seeing no choice but to take responsibility and the initiative as his father Zhongxun had done in the 1930's and 1940's to breakout of isolated regions in the north of China. The sudden shift to adapt to open covid policy is also apparent from Zhongxun's ability to adapt to and lead the changes after Deng's experiment with a market economy. A report by Rohan Premkumar in the Hindu on Jan 25 on a British sub-jail in the Nilgiri hills of Tamilnadu shows prisoners from the Opium wars with China sent to this jail by the British. These events still shape Chinese perceptions of the world- the backwardness in faceoffs with the west and the cost to the mainland Asian nations India and China. Inland river based civilizations on the Ganges and the Yangtze that failed, as Adam Smith says in The Wealth of Nations, to change in ways that the Renaissance  and the Industrial Revolution changed Europe. ...

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Italy's political scene is fragmented with two far right parties one the League under Matteo Salvini with a base in the north and the other called Brothers of Italy, under Giorgia Meloni with a base in the south. In Italian politics of the last decade popularity of a party lasts on the right or the left remains for 3-4 years before fading. In sequence after the fading away of Berluconi's party, voters swung to the socialist party, then the party of Beppe Grillo a comedian called Five Star Movement, followed by the League and Salvini on the far right, and now Brothers of Italy. At no time is any such party having at the height of its popularity having more than 20-25% support. Brothers of Italy under Meloni is the newcomer with 23% support mostly in the south, Rome, Palermo, Sardinia.    Brothers of Italy is different from Salvini's party as Meloni is staunchly pro-EU and supports Italy taking a strong stand on Ukraine. The withdrawal of Salvini from the national unity government led by Mr. Draghi, former head of the European Central Bank, and formed during the pandemic, led to its collapse last week. Meloni benefited by being the main party in the opposition during that time, so that it is not clear that if she forms a government after the September election whether Italy will still have a stable government. The difference between Salvini's League with connections to Russia and Meloni's EU positions means far right politics is itself fragmented and the socialist parties are within a point of the Brothers of Italy. Mr. Berluconi's Forza remains a fringe player with 8%. With 200 million euros of EU assistance Italy decided to form a government under Mr. Draghi in a kind of national unity government during the pandemic so that these funds could be managed effectively, and to tackle pandemic related problems. Some of Meloni's appeal may come from broadening her appeal by policies that support nurseries and mothers, the family, and from her working class background in Rome at a time when the pandemic has created serious economic problems for families. Like France Italy is divided with Meloni playing the kind of role Le Pen has in France of being for working class yet facing competition for working class votes from the socialist parties that are close rivals for support. The Five Star and League parties in northern Italy have their own local support base. ...

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This report in WSJ says China's government faces severely strained government finances. Local government entities sale of land financed 40% of local government revenues in China, and most of these have dried up with the very real loss of confidence in property sector. Government now faces $900 billion in shortfall in revenues says this report. There may be psychological hurdles in China's growth with the effects on mental health from lockdowns in major cities, the revolt in the property sector with home buyers losing confidence in developers, the loss of confidence of foreign investors from US and EU. The dependence on the property sector to carry so large a burden of growth for the last 2 decades in China may now look like an error. The dependence on foreign investment may also be an error as the loss of confidence could mean some withdrawal and a lack of sustained investment.  It could even be said that restraints on both sectors property and foreign investors could have created alternative paths to growth, and reduced the shift of factories from the US and Europe to China that have now caused trade friction and and a reverse shift of investment back to home countries of US and EU. Trade friction has it appears backfired in a way that extends to the overall relationship which could have been prevented by preventing the hyper growth that happened. Greg Ip of the WSJ has argued that compared to Japan's growth in the sixties and seventies from a country of 100 million the hyper growth for a country of 1 billion for 2 decades created a massive impact on communities in US and EU that were dependent on factories that were lost to China. This has alienated large sectors of the public in the US and EU which could have been prevented by restraints on hyper growth in China. Ip says the growth was too large and too fast for the US to cope. It may have permanently damaged the relations between the two countries showing that trade and globalization had unintended effects when left to business which has no comprehension of how the macro developments can affect the relations between the peoples if the other effects in the relationship such as community impacts are ignored which business says is not its role,  and governments staying away from keeping an eye on how it was happening and adjusting for ill effects with restraint and redirection of business policies. ...

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Getting savy employers to pay attention and getting employees to have a better sense of who they are, provides the topic of this article in the WSJ. It shows that different types of employee behaviour can be seen after two years of the pandemic, and employers need to pay attention to their needs.  There are ambitious employees and work to live types. Work to live advocates have put lifestyle and health as priorities learning from the pandemic. The great resignation and employers facing worker shortages have given them an opportunity to look for more flexibility in work life situations. Related to work to live type are double duty professionals of which women form the larger part. During the pandemic women took on more responsibilities for children with lockdowns and school closures. This also meant a more stressful life. All of these types of employees are now in the workplace. Employers can get better results by paying careful attention to worker needs. The types are not exclusive as double duty professionals also have the drive and the resilience to match ambitious employees in tackling new positions and responsibilities. The double duty professionals also share the aspirations of work to live advocates for a better work life balance that gives rest and relaxation, home and family, the importance it deserves for a full and complete life. There is one more type which is also part of the workplace that is entirely different. It is the disoriented new employee who has been left alone to find out about new responsibilities at work virtually without the necessary human contact. Related to this type is the desperate to connect type which is the type that has lived in relative isolation during the pandemic and is now hungering for human contact. There is also one more type closer to retirement that is the zest for life type that can be very productive in the workplace because of its experience and talent if given the chance. This type is not just there for the paycheck or career progress. Here the zest for life means the desire to connect with others and learn new things. Companies and management can accomplish more and be more responsive to needs of their employees by understanding these types and their different needs. Dorie Clark ,who teaches executive education at Duke and Columbia University ,says this is important for companies to retain talented employees and get the most out of them by understanding early on what motivates them. ...

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Mr. Trump's conflict with the Justice Department in the last weeks of his presidency to appoint a new Attorney General with intent to contest the results of the presidential election of 2020, is shown in this report in NYT. This created risks for American democracy. The cracks in social cohesion following four decades of foreign wars 1980-2021, irresponsible behavior of financial institutions leading to financial crises and impoverishment of America, incompetent elites, neglect of rural America, ceding of technology and competitive position to China, failure to fund education, healthcare and infrastructure, under presidents Reagan, elder Bush, Clinton,  Bush, Obama, led to a situation of revolt against the status quo by a maverick politician using a new and proven dangerous form of communication social media. Ultimately this put democracy at risk. Lessons from this are only now being learned as people in the Biden administration and outside of it reflect on what happened. In this WSJ report Mr. Trump is seen pressuring officials of the Justice Department to agree to appointment of a new Attorney General shortly after the election. This was seen as an effort to question the results of the 2020 presidential election. A leading senator on the Judiciary Committee says this would lead to "shredding the US Constitution to stay in power." Of this and also of four decades of neglect in America Washington has this to say in his first Inaugural Address on April 30, 1789- "The blessed religion revealed in the word of God will remain an eternal and awful monument to prove that the best institutions may be abused by human depravity; and that they may even in some instances be made subservient to the vilest of purposes. Should, hereafter, those entrusted with the management of this government, incited by the lust of power and prompted by the supineness or venality of their Constituents, overleap the known barriers of this Constitution, and violate the inalienable rights of humanity: it will only serve to shew, that no compact among men (however provident in its construction and sacred in its ratification) can be pronounced everlasting and inviolable- and if I may so express myself, that no wall of words, that no mound of parchment can be so formed as to stand against the sweeping torrent of boundless ambition on the one side, aided by the sapping current of corrupted morals on the other." ...

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Lessons can be learned about careful reopening in fighting the coronavirus from other countries. Here the Netherlands experienced a rise of cases by 500% within two weeks of reopening after some poor decisions. The Mark Rutte government decided to open all bars and nightclubs resulting in a twelve fold surge in these locations in one week. Most of the new coronavirus cases were in people 18-29. Data from Dutch public health institute shows 4 out of 10 new cases linked to bars and nightclubs with 262% surge in cases for young people 18-24 years. This goes to show that with the vaccination drive what we see is the cases shifting to younger people, the unvaccinated, and to activities like nightlife. People going to work, or doing hybrid remote work with trips to the office, workers in factories, people doing essential shopping, are not causing the rise in cases. Much can be learned from these examples in working out reopening that does not lead to new crises with surging cases in new waves of coronavirus. Earlier in 2020 summer tourists who ignored mask and social distancing restrictions in Croatia brought on a post summer coronavirus wave to Germany and Austria. This time Greece and Portugal are introducing restrictions. Greece plans to make vaccine health pass required effective July 21 to go into restaurants. Another lesson from Netherlands this week is that a 20,000 person music event of 2 days in Utrecht where QR codes were required showing vaccination or PCR tests failed. About 1000 cases were attributed to the Utrecht event alone. Reasons given are that people faked the QR codes, or that the covid testing system produced too many false results as much as 20%. The same QR code system was followed at nightclubs resulting in big problems. One can never be sure that things work as expected and the risks are great as this adds up. Even vaccines offer limited protection and only if fully vaccinated depending on the type of vaccine. One dose of the vaccine is simply inadequate, and obesity, other morbidities can lead to problems. Withdrawing the mandatory use of face masks in most situations is also a risky decision of the Dutch government. Face masks offer the added protection at a time of variants that spread quckly, and when large parts of the population have only one dose of the vaccine, some elderly are still not vaccinated, and young people have not been vaccinated in large numbers. ...

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"Ram Rajya" is a concept of a just society that serves the needs of the people based on the ancient history and ancient paths of Bharat or India. It is easily understood among the farmers and ordinary people of India. During the long period of colonialism it meant to Gandhi and hundreds of millions in the villages of India a sense of society free of colonialism and colonial rule that did not invest in the country or its people, no matter their religion or caste or language group. In this sense Ram Rajya is all about a just society of governance that meets the needs of all the people, that makes investment in the resources of the country to the benefit of the people. In the modern period in the transformation of rural societies such as China or India or other parts of Asia, Ram Rajya or Buddha Rajya as an extension of the same concept, and about what Abraham Lincoln called society for the people, of the people, by the people, in his call to America for a Just Society. In this sense it has connotations for the world as it struggles to build a style of governance in society that builds the infrastructure, invests in the education and minds of the people, in their health and wellbeing along all dimensions. In this way it is a social concept that is embodied in the best of human society throughout history. It embodies the aspirations of the people of Asia to modernity inspired by ancient tradition, aspirations to science and technology and building modern societies. Of India with Ram and the Buddha, China in its connections to the Buddha, to the people of Indonesia with the connection to Hanuman, and the people in South East Asia and Japan through their connections to the Buddha which were embedded in the ancient society of Ram and the Upanishads in the land south of the Himalayas. No one is too small, no effort is ordinary or small- "I am very small, I am very ordinary, if someone thinks so one must remember the contribution of the squirrel. Remmbering the ocntribution of the squirrel will dispel our hesitation, and teach us that every effort big or small, has its strength and contribution. The foundation of Sabka Prayas (everyone's efforts) will be the foundation of a divine, and capable, just and good Bharat or India for all its 1400 million people."   ...

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Michael Shear says president Biden is listening to his head about the US Border with Mexico- that he would close the US Border if the bipartisan bill is passed in the US Congress, the same day that he signs it to become law. The new bill agreed to in negotiations between Senator Graham and other Republican Senators and the White House ends current parole and asylum policy  that have led to chaos at the border. Shear who has covered presidents for 30 years shows that president Biden held the view that he was elected to provide a human face to the crisis at the border from international migration and close private prisons and poor treatment of children. He listened to both sides of his party during 2021 and 2022 after becoming increasingly aware that something was wrong and by Jan 2023 was convinced that tough action was needed at the border to deport Haitians and other people from central America smuggled northward with 13 flights a day to Haiti to deport illegal migrants.  He made his first major immigration speech at that time. The problem was that there was a major upheaval in Venezuela adding to the tide of illegal migrants as Venezuela sent millions to all countries in Latin America and north to the US, an international crisis playing out in Colombia and other neighbors for the last 10 years. When Lopez Obrador of Mexico closed his own migrant deportations Biden sent Blinken to Mexico with Homeland Security minister Mayorkas, and after discussions Obrador resumed the deportations. Trains going north in Mexico had conductors who were bribed to slow down to take on migrants. This was stopped and all trains going north were stopped at Eagle Pass in December 2023. Republican governors Abbott of Texas and DeSantis of Florida have sent busloads or flights of these migrants to New York and other cities in the US showing that the entire system of migrant handling was breaking down even as president Biden was convinced by his own advisers including Jake Sullivan that the border required tough action. The president increased planned legal migration to lower illegal migration from Nicaragua and rest of Latin America. By January 2024 Biden was convinced the only solution was closing the US Border immediately after the bipartisan solution. Lindsay Graham senior Republican Senator agreed with Biden with one problem- the Republicans in US House of Representatives did not think it right to work with president Biden to settle the problem.  ...

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Republicans have supported less regulation. After the 2009 financial crisis with faulty mortgages and excessive leveraging one would expect that there would be a shift among Republicans favoring necessary regulation of banks. This did not happen after the Obama administration failed to articulate a new culture after 2009 and lost control of Congress in 2010 by as much as 64 seats in the House 6 in the Senate, and in all demographic and income groups. The result was that the 2009 crisis changed some laws but not the culture of laissez faire that less regulation was better for the economy. It is left to president Biden to tackle this problem of culture and the Silicon Valley Bank clearly shows that the parts of the Republican and Democratic parties that support less regulation even where the regulation is essential for a good economy for workers and families, are self serving. No where is this culture of laissez fairre in its other manifestation in not planning for the US manufacturing base to be strengthened by government action more evident than in the way it has prevailed to turn a blind eye to not just sending manufacturing overseas, but over concentrating it in one country China with additional supply base from Japan into China. This is the challenge that the country faces- only if the culture or mindset changes will laws have the needed impact.  This report in the NYT shows that when president Trump appointed Randall Quarles to vice chair of banking supervision in 2017, Congressmen both Republicans and Democrats believed that less supervision was better for the economy. Democrats such as Congressmen Barney Frank were themselves part of the new culture when Frank joined Signature Bank's board in 2015, one of the banks that along with SVB bank caused the banking crisis of 2023. Its association with risky crypto assets is considered by the WSJ as being one reason the government decided to close it. Frank did not see this aspect of its risk insisting that the bank was in sound condition.  This culture is also manifested in its approach to the cost of living crisis and support for workers and families. The Biden administration sees the problem of culture and of clearly making the changes that create a new culture, and a new understanding of what is right for America, for its economy and for its role in the world, and best for its people.   ...

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The bill to bring girls marriageable age to 21, in parity with the boys marriageable age of 21 that exists today, was introduced in the Indian parliament by Smriti Irani. This is seen as a crucial bill to amend the Prohibition of Child Marraige Act 2006. Child marraige was a sign of the weakness in Indian society and practices that were being reformed in the nineteenth century/ twentieth century beginning with Ram Mohan Roy's efforts in 1800. Roy was the first Indian to put forward ideas for modernization that were later put forward effectively by Swami Vivekananda, putting Indian religious thought back on its original foundations of the Upanishads including the Bhagavad Gita, free of the deterioration over the centuries since the Middle ages. And in doing so extend even the ideas of the French and Indian Revolutions to the idea of women's rights. The efforts of Gandhi and the framers of the Indian constitution, begun under Roy and then Vivekananda during the British period, have inspired renewed efforts under Mr. Modi to build a strong nation under a framework of these values- values of the French and American Revolutions and the values that support gender equality. In real life this means, as Mr. Modi has reminded the public, that young girls can now use these crucial years to continue their education and pursue their dreams for a better life in the same way as young boys can. It is as if Jefferson, one of the Founding Fathers in America in 1776, would have said- "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men and women are created equal, and they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, and among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness." It is this pursuit of happiness, pursuit of one's own dreams to be a scientist, educator, civil servant, to be active in law or medicine, or science, the humanities, the same for boys or girls, that is now being put forward in the New India of the 21st century. In India this has happened not with the stroke of a pen through the tumult of a revolution but with deep roots through the efforts of Roy, Vivekananda, Gandhi and the framers of the Indian Constitution, and now with the tireless efforts of today's leaders. ...

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Working part-time during retirement years is important for health- staying active, using ones mind and brain, social engagement, and getting satisfaction in the workplace. A Study in 2017 by the Rand Corporation finds about 40% of workers over 65 who had previously retired back to the workplace. People are lengthening careers, and returning to work not just for financial reasons. Many of these people are looking for ways to remain active after realizing that staying active was important and if this could be combined with having extra time off in part time jobs for other hobbies and interests- this would better fit today's lifestyle and choices with people living longer and having more productive lives than ever before. A recent Pew Research analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the proportion of people over age 65 who are employed part time or full time has gone up in 2016 from about 13% to 19% with about half these people working full time. This trend to work following retirement has a word for it- people call it "unretirement." Where work is less taxing as for graduates and people with higher education this is happening more.  From a health perspective this can be important, as people can become more reclusive and more internal looking, less socially engaged as they retire without even realizing it. Some level of social engagement is planned by people retiring, and many retirees do volunteer work, yet this may not be enough. For those people who retired early because of burnout in the workplace, strains with other workers, poor culture in the workplace, the retirement for a few years after 60 can serve as a way to replenish one's resources, recover and resume working again in a place that is better suited for them. The restorative break can then serve as a way to get back to the workplace in a positive way. Work that is meaningful, offering opportunities for contributing one's skills, adds a new dimension to people's lives, and is also a contributor to living healthy lives, at a time when people live longer. Retirement at 65 may not make sense in this new environment, opportunities for part-time work bring the knowledge and skills of experienced people to the workplace and offer a win-win solution for both. More needs to be done to create these opportunities in a planned and organized way in business and government, in all workplaces. ...

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President Trump on a three day visit to the UK promised a free trade deal with Britain if it made a decisive break with the European Union. Such a free trade deal could take years, offer small benefits compared to the loss of the much larger trading relationship with the European Union. It would face hurdles in passage through Congress because Democrats controlling the House of Representatives see a decisive break with the European Union including the customs union arrangement as affecting the open border in Ireland risking the hard won peace in Northern Ireland.  Prime Minister Theresa May proposed a withdrawal arrangement that would keep the customs union arrangement but has failed to secure the support of a faction within her Conservative party that favors a decisive break from the EU. Such a break that Mr. Trump and Boris Johnson the leader of this faction -and a favored candidate to succeed prime minister May after her resignation- would reduce Britain's GDP over the next 15 years at the higher end of the range of 0.1% to 9% a year. A decisive break called a no deal Brexit with no arrangements or agreement for withdrawal with the EU, would lead to a loss closer to the 9% estimate. British experts to the EU are about $275 billion or 44% of its total exports compared to about $44 billion to the U.S., according to HMS Customs source, showing how important it is for Britain to maintain a close trading relationship with the European Union. British farmers would also face competition through agricultural imports from the U.S. in a free trade deal. During his visit Mr. Trump also stated the National Health Service, everything would be on the table in a free trade deal with the U.S.  Theresa May responded by saying that the NHS would not be open for negotiation to American corporate involvement. Public sensitivity is high on any change to the National Health Service. The trip of president Trump to London in which he supported Boris Johnson as candidate to succeed Theresa May, with discussions between Trump and Johnson for 20 minutes, and a visit by Nigel Farage to the U.S. embassy, and no meeting with Labour party leader Corbyn, only shows the widening of differences on the issue of British withdrawal from the EU making any deal for withdrawal even less likely. Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn now favors a second referendum on whether Britain should leave the EU.  ...

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Elections are won on messages that can be put in one line. FDR's in 1932 he stated clearly and applies to Biden in 2024- it has Abraham Lincoln's message from his writings. FDR said in 1932 "Give me your help not to win votes alone, but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." America in 2024 during the pandemic resembles America in 1932 during the Depression with widening gaps between the upper and lower classes and in opportunity for better life. Philip Bump in his Analysis in the Washington Post points out that the 2024 US election remains a referendum on the former president Trump. This is because as is already evident the voters have made up their minds, on Biden's side people that have decided they will not vote for Trump, and on Trump's side people who will vote for Trump. Biden has a stable vote when the election is referendum on Trump. Crime has come down so that crime is not so much of an issue. Immigration is also coming down and the Lankford- Biden immigration legislation did not pass to close the border as it was seen not attractive for the reelection bid on basis of immigration fears from the former president. Biden has take steps to close the border using executive action in the absence of Congress stalling on advice of the former president. The other issue is abortion and the selection of J.D. Vance for VP creates more fears about abortion bans for suburban women in all 51 states. Climate Change action is another issue and if stalled for 4 years it would cost the US upward of 1 trillion dollars to make up for action not taken till 2028. Donilon has said elections are fought on issues that can be put in one line for focus and concentration. For Democrats it is democracy in the words of FDR in his 1932 address: "Give me your help not to win votes alone but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." It is good to reflect and know that this is what president Abraham Lincoln would also have said knowing Lincoln's views from his writings on the this aspect of freedom in the Civil War in fighting the plantation economies of the Southern states. ...

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Efforts to save the VW brand in North America as it faces disappointing sales. It lost $1 billion in North America for each of the last 3 years. VW faces perception issues among customers in the USA who read JD Powers surveys. The surveys show VW in the bottom 20% for reliability, quality and service. Its younger customer base does online shopping and compares models and this led to sales declining from 338,00 to 235,000 in 2006. Now Jacoby, an accountant by training, who headed VW global sales and marketing and boosted market share from 18.1% to 20.3% in European car sales, has been given charge of the American operation to get VW to breakeven n North America by 2009. Previous ad campaigns showing VW safety in car crashes and Helg a German dominatrix failed to stir up much interest in Jetta and Passat models.

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Coming to terms with aging in America for a generation of baby-boomers who grew up at a time when the credo was that you could transform yourself endlessly if you lived right.

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China takes a different approach to the stock market declines on August 24-25, 2015, after the earlier failed interventions in July and early August called into question the transparency and integrity of the financial markets. The main Shanghai index opened 6% lower on August 25, and ended down 7.6%. This time the government let the market find its own level. Li Jiange, vice chairman of state owned investment company Central Huijin, wrote in his blog post that "The trade volume of the market can reach 2 trillion yuan ($300 billion) a day, which means if it collapsed no one could save it...The issues of the market should be handled by the market itself." In July and the early part of August Central Huijin was reported to have intervened to support the market. On Aug. 14, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) stated achange in policy to intervene "only when the market changes dramatically and introduces systemic risk." It is important to note that even with the 40% decline in the market index since June 2015 peak, it is still up 35% compared to the prior year....

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Argentina's presidential election on October 25, 2015, offers an opportunity for new leadership. President Christina Kirchner is limited 2 two terms by the constitution, she served 2007-2015, following her husband who was president 2003-2007. The candidate of Kirchner's Peronist Party, Daniel Scioli, governor of Buenos Aires Province, has 38% support in the polls, followed by Buenos Aires mayor, Mauricio Macri, of the centre-right PRO party, who has 30% support. The other candidate is Sergio Massa, former mayor of the city of Tigre, who leads the Renewal Front party, with 21% support. The election rules require the winner to win 45% in the first round or a 10% margin over the second place candidate, if not it goes to a runoff. Both Scioli and Macri are seen as being new faces with different policies to tackle the country's economic downturn, who would give Argentina a fresh start after the Kirchner years. A devaluation of the peso which has an official peg of 9.4, but trades unofficially at 15, and restoring trust of foreign investors, are some of the problems facing a new president....

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The discussion on whether it is feasible to achieve any significant cost savings as long as middle class consumers are not cost conscious about their employer provided health insurance. This would be so as long as their health insurance benefits are not taxed as income. America suffers from a particularly strong case of not minding the price increases imposed by the health care industry as long as its not out of pocket cost. But Obama seems stuck on his insistence that the middle class not take on any burden, that there be no middle class tax in the form of this tax on health care benefits. Critics say even FDR did this by having the middle class pay with payroll contributions for Medicare and Social Security. And even if the 5% of Americans who make more than $280,000 are taxed it will not generate by itself the money to pay for the $1 trillion cost of the plan, as the prospects of cost reduction are uncertain- especially when the basic nature of America's health care system are not changed, like the lack of cost consciousness of consumers of health care when its perceived to be free and employer provided....

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The New York Times editorial says the constitutional option looks better than the recession option, now that huge cuts in spending including Medicare and Social Security are planned in the budget talks between the Republicans and the Obama White House. The Times points to $4 trillion in defict reduction in 10 years, that is being discussed as part of a grand agreement in White House talks. It reminds the Obama White House that it is not likely to win independent voters if unemployment increases as a result. The constitutional option is for the President to to point to the 14th Amendment that the public debt cannot be questioned, in effect saying the debt limit cannot be controlled by Congress as it is today. See the piece by Krugman on the same subject in today's New York Times. Krugman asks why Obama's economic advisors have not cautioned him about the size of the cuts and the potential impact on unemployment in a fragile economy. And he points out that most of the senior economic advisors have left and it may be Obama's political team that is looking for a way to win points with independent voters for next years election....

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The Economist points to Mexico's potential and compares it favorably to Brazil and China. Mexico's people are better educated and have higher standards of living than most developing countries including Brazil. Technical education is one of Mexico's strengths and it has good management talent. It suffered badly in the global financial crisis of 2008 because of the recession in the U.S., but it does not have to lower its sights and live with lower growth as the U.S. economy suffers a slowdown. As Chinese wages have risen, Mexico is looking better as a place to invest. And even as Brazil's credit markets getting overheated, there is much room for credit growth in the Mexican economy. Mexico could achieve a growth rate higher by about 2.5 percentage points according to one estimate, if it attracts more foreign investment and opens up the oil industry to foreign investment, implements reform for labor markets and opens up many sectors to competition. It needs to restricts the monopolies granted to businesses such as Telefonos Mexico run by Carlos Slim, as well as other cartels and monopolies to achieve higher economic efficency....

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Dilution of the Volcker Rule by defining "hedging" as covering bank risk on a "portfolio basis," "including aggregate risk of one or more trading desks." The new wording is in a 174 page draft proposal for the rule released by regulatory agencies. The Federal Reserve, the FDIC, the CFTC, the SEC, and the Treasury Department are putting together the final wording. This opens the door for banks to engage in proprietary trading on their own account. Experts say this makes it possible for financial firms to make all kinds of bets on the market, by defining the risk of its portfolio broadly, such as a U.S. recession. Additional changes are the deleting of the requirement that chief executives pledge their firms are not engaging in proprietary trading. Another change that is being debated is whether to require banks to report all trading to a single repository so that regulators can see if there is systemic risk. The result of this would be a watering down of the original Volcker Rule provision in the Dodd-Frank legislation, that banned proprietary trading after the 2008 financial collapse on Wall Street....

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The response of Ronald Reagan and George Bush in a Republican presidential primary debate to the question: Do you think the children of illegal aliens be allowed should be able to attend Texas public schools free, or do you think that their parents should pay for their education? Bush's response: "I would reluctantly say I think they would get whatever it is that society is giving to their neighbors... If they're living here I don't want to see a whole thing of 6-8- year old kids being made totally uneducated and made to feel they're living outside the law. Lets address ourselves to the fundamentals. These are good people, strong people. Part of my family is Mexican." Ronald Reagan's response was: "Rather than talk about putting a fence, why don't we work out some recognition of our mutual problems with Mexico? Make it possible for them to come here legally and with a work permit- and then while working and earning here, they pay taxes here. And when they want to go back, they can go back. And open the border both ways by understanding their problems."...