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One hundred years after the First World War Germans look at memorials and museums in Kiel about the naval buildup in Germany in 1910-1914 in a different light. Germany's effort to match Britain's naval supremacy and the increasing tensions and nationalist rhetoric led to the war- worse, the defeat created conditions for a larger conflict in 1939-1945. To put this period behind it Germany has emphasized the dangers of war and getting people to realize what war is. Kiel itself was 80% destroyed at the end of the Second World War.

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After UAE leaves OPEC and US increases oil production (Venezuela+), China reducing imports keeps oil prices low and keeps Hormuz closure from affecting oil prices. This has major impact on all countries that are affected by the shortage of oil as this puts more oil into the market (about 4 million barrels a day that China imported through Hormuz), and by lowering oil prices helps China as it pays less for oil it imports from other sources outside Hormuz. It also helps poor countries such as India and China, Pakistan, Philippines, Indonesia, rest of Asia, Africa and Latin America. By keeping oil prices low China also help climate change action by accelerating its renewable energy production. India and EU, US, also increase renewable energy production as a consequence of Hormuz, leading to strong climate change action. These are some of the positive side of Hormuz as the world with China leading the way learns that it is best to do without Hormuz. Though China does not say this publicly China does not want to see more nuclear weapons capable countries in volatile regions. This is true also of India, Indonesia, and EU. China  (And India) also consider it a high priority for its economy to maintain trade relations with the US. This is rarely stated in the Media today. What this means is that oil prices can be kept low as the largest nations together EU, US, China, India, Japan join together to keep oil prices low not repeating the situation during an earlier naval blockade April 13 to June 18 2026 of prices going to $125 a barrel. China has some of the largest coal reserves and oil strategic reserves in the world which make it possible for China to do this. ...

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Elisa Lipsky-Karasz's fascinating account of the life Julia Roberts has built for herself on a quiet street in a modest home in Malibu, being that mom across the street no more, no less, as she raises 9 year old twins Hazel and Finn and 6 year old Henry. The actress famous for Erin Brockovich (2000) and other movies leads a simple life with the coming an going of school days and spring vacation being the key points of the year. Any movies are done on her schedule and now focuses on narrower topics such as the fight against AIDS of a doctor who is a polio survivor- The Normal Heart was done during children's summer and Thanksgiving vacations. And its a life she is grateful for, being just like anybody else on that street.

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German banks have the largest exposure in Europe to Spain- $139.9 billion in 2012. Of this $45.9 billion is exposure to Spanish banks, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The Landesbanks in Germany have a large exposure in covered bonds to Spain, which are covered by collateral in the form of residential mortgages that have lost value and could lead to losses. At the same time they are not likely to default says Leef Dierks of Morgan Stanley, because they are used as collateral to borrow from the ECB. Some of these cedulas or jumbo covered bonds are trading at 52 cents on the dollar, according to Mr. Dierks. Geman banks have limited loss absorption capacity says Moody's. Moody's has reduced Germany's outlook to "negative" from "stable" for this reason, and warned Germany could lose its triple A credit rating.

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It comes as a shock to central banks and is pressuring governments- the food price explosion that won't go away even as energy prices are moderating. OECD graphs in this WSJ report show food prices up in 2023 over the prior year by 15-20% in France, Germany and Britain, compared to 5-10% in the US, Canada and Japan. In France households have cut food purchases by 10%, and in Germany by 10.4% over prior year in the largest drop since records were being kept in 1994. In Britain the statistics agency shows that 40% of the poorest 20% of people are cutting back on food purchases. Ludovic Subran who worked at the UN World Food Program says it is an "access problem." Food production has not dropped, people just can't afford to pay the prices. In Britain The Resolution Foundation says higher food prices since 2020 means the British public by summer 2023 will have to pay more in food bills $35 billion more than the 25 billion pounds for energy bills. Policymakers call higher profit margins by retailers as a possible cause as in world commodity markets food prices are falling since April 2022. Andrew Baileyof the Bank of England says it is the "fourth shock to inflation" after the supply chain bottlenecks, the energy price increases from the war in Ukraine, the tight labor markets. In Italy, Spain and Portugal governments have offered sale tax relief, in France and the UK government is leaning on retailers to curb price increases. ...

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Time Inc. publishes about 80 print magazines, including Time, People, and Sports Illustrated. CEO Joe Ripp says Time Inc. was slow to respond to the digital transformation of media, and revenue is declining for several years. In 2014 Time Inc. ad revenue from digital ads was only 17%. Unlike Meredith Corp. and other companies which have television stations, or cable-television systems which can support its business, Time has little in the way of support, and could be broken up if the transformation into digital fails. Ripp was Chief Financial Officer of first Time Warner in 1999, and then of AOL Inc. at the time of the merger with Time Warner Inc. One of Ripp's recent risky moves not followed by other media companies is merging the media content side with the advertising side in native advertising. Time Inc. has 7000 employees as of Dec. 31, 2014, 800 fewer than the prior year.

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A video view of the damaged oil facilities of Aramco in Saudi Arabia. A proxy war waged between Saudis and Iran with Houthi rebels in Yemen have worsened the situation in the Straits of Hormuz. Tensions were high, an attack on oil facilities was not expected. About half of Saudi oil production was put out of use in the attack by low flying missiles that evaded radar defenses. Saudis plan to meet oil export commitments by importing oil. President Trump imposed sanctions on the Iranian central bank, and at the same time said he would meet with Iran's president Rouhani for talks if arranged.  The European Union called for talks to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal considering all issues nuclear, oil, and political issues in the region. The effect of Trump administration sanctions on Iran's economy have led to worsening relations. Japan, South Korea, India and China are affected by the U.S. effort to limit imports of Iranian oil. As tensions rose Japan with limited reserves made efforts to reduce tensions and bring the parties together. Mr. Trump fired his National Security Adviser in an effort to open up ideas for a renegotiation of the Iran nuclear deal on a comprehensive basis including oil and political issues in the region. ...

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The relationship betwen natural gas prices and crude oil is diverging. The ratio of oil to natural gas prices which has averaged about 9 since 1990 is now at 14. Production of natural gas using new technologies will increase production by 8% in 2008 its expected, increasing from 4%the previous year, according to the Energy Information Administration. And demand is slowing from 6.5% to 3%.

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Antonio Guterres was prime minister of Portugal from 1995 to 2002. As climate change action leader he plays an important role in 2022. He is interviewed here by The Guardian with a look at his role so far before COP27 opens in Egypt. Guterres became Secretary General of the United Nations in 2017. His leadership and visible presence is a source of reduction of tensions during the war in Ukraine and a source of renewed commitment during the climate change disasters of 2022.

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Governor Cuomo's 2011 budget for New York includes year-to-year cuts of $2 billion in spending on healthcare and education. Overall the cuts would reduce year-to-year spending by 2%. For Medicaid and education Cuomo made a deal for a two year appropriation locking in fixed rates of growth, so that budget battles with teachers unions and other interests do not have to be repeated next year.

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The methods to fight fires in Canada on the vast empty forests of Quebec and Alberta are very different from that in more populated California. Fires in Canada get less attention and fire fighting starts later than in the US where there are homes to save in fire burning areas of California. Fires in Canada are even allowed to burn themselves out with little action taken where this works best. 

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Jaap Hoop Scheffer outlines NATO's priorities including cybersecurity, energy security, terrorism, and relations with Russia.

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Differences between the U.S. and China on trade, investment and economic policy in 2015 during Xi Jinping's visit to the U.S.

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Sharp showed a loss of $3.1 billion for the third quarter of 2012, far larger than expected. Sharp's new forecast is for losses of $5.6 billion for 2012. Sharp CEO, Takashi Okuda, even said the company has "material doubts" about its survival because of "serious negative operating cash flow." Sharp made large bets on LCD panel manufacturing with large investments in added capacity as the television market turned into a commodity business with declining prices and with new competition from China. Just one factory in Sakai, Japan, could manufacture 6 million LCD panels a year- the total global market size at the time. Two other events hurt Sharp- missing the smartphone shift with the introduction of the iPhone in Japan in 2008 leading to a sharp drop in sales, and the collapse of the solar business with cheap products from China. The global economic crisis and overstretched consumers in the U.S. and Europe led to declining sales. Sharp's new factories for LCD panels at Kaneyama now make panels for iPads and iPhones. ...

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Simon Jenkins of The Guardian says it is time to clear some of the myths around migrants, tariffs, and NATO and in this way action by the current Republican administration can be a positive step. Jenkins says DJT is moving quickly in the first 100 Days because most presidents get only 2 years to make changes before losing the House or the Senate making legislation difficult to pass. If it appears that things are happening on many fronts too quickly that is just the nature of things under a democratic process where checks and balances mean all three parts of government- executive powers of the president are balanced by powers of Congress and of the Supreme Court. Jenkins points out that action on migrants with the unease about millions of migrants coming in illegally, putting tariff barriers to bring manufacturing back and rebuilding America's forgotten middle class, cutting the bureaucracy and misuse of funds, sending education back to the states, and rethinking NATO bringing Russia back into the community of nations, will have long term positive effects long after the chaotic nature that they appear in the news cycle and the media presentation has passed. He cites China being invited back into the community of nations under Nixon. And today disarmament possible only by working with Russia, when China is moving in the direction of increasing nuclear missiles with trouble spots in Taiwan. He does not mention the sending back of about 1 million people back to Mexico under President Eisenhower in Operation Wetback in 1954, Harry Truman a senator from Missouri who led the effort to cut waste and fraud in government spending in the Second World War, the ED Hirsch graph showing reading comprehension scores of American K-12 headed one way - straight down since the 1960's showing education is failing in the US and needs parents and states to come up with new solutions.   ...

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Yale University professor Robert Shiller, founded CAPE, the cyclically adjusted and inflation adjusted S&P price earnings ratio. It takes the average of the 10 past years of earnings and the inflation adjusted S&P 500 index to arrive at this CAPE P/E ratio. Here he looks at CAPE in 2000, 2007 and 2013, to get a sense of where the U.S. stock market stands today and investor confidence. In 2000 CAPE reached 46, in 2007 it was at 27 and in 2013 it has reached 23. The historical average for CAPE is 15- this goes back in data to 1871. Zweig in the WSJ March 8, 2013, cites data from the last 50 years showing the historical adjusted P/E at 19.7. The investor confidence in the stock market or "valuation confidence" based on work done by Shiller is at 72% for institutional investors and 62% for individual investors in 2013, it was about 80% for both categories before the market peak in 2007. This data is on the website of the Yale School of Management. Shiller says the levels of optimism can fluctuate and change easily, requiring careful thinking by investors. He confirms Browning's assertion in the WSJ March 6, 2013, that in inflation adjusted terms investors are not ahead in the last 13 years, when compared to 2000, based on the inflation corrected S&P Composite total return index....

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Gage points out that crime in America is about half what it was in 1991. She traces the calls for law and order in American politics back to Coolidge and Nixon. Trump's reference to restoring law and order is about checking the calls for correcting social injustice, movements for gun control, and public protest such as "Black Lives Matter," not just criminals, says Gage. In fact strict deportation has been the policy in 2 terms of the Obama administration, with immigration from Mexico at an all time low, another of the paradoxes in relation to the Trump calls for a wall with Mexico that would cost $23 billion.