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Decline in capital investment in 2016-2017 expected at Lukoil and Rosneft as the Russian government postponed a reduction in taxes on oil exports for 2016. Russia is dependent on oil exports for a third of its national output, and about half of its budget depends on oil revenues, a major weakness, but this is being managed carefully till oil prices recover. Russian officials say the $50 a barrel assumption for oil revenues in 2016 in the budget is optimistic. Yet Russian output decline is expected to be limited to about 3% a year from 5% for Lukoil in future years from decline in investment, because of drilling new wells and use of horizontal drilling technology on older fields. In 2015 oil output increased modestly to 10.73 barrels a day from 10.58 barrels a day in 2014. Russia's oil industry benefits from a tax system that favors the industry. The export duty on oil and the mineral extraction tax are based on price. A declining ruble which has gone from 35 to the dollar before its invasion of Ukraine in 2014 to 86 to the dollar in Jan 2016, has a favorable impact. This actually helps the industry because workers and oil equipment suppliers in Russia are paid in rubles, and oil revenues are earned in dollars. As a result new technologies such as horizontal drilling now make up one third of oil supplies from 11% in 2010. Chinese suppliers also provide new technology drilling equipment, as China is not part of the sanctions. Gazprom Neft's CEO Dyukov says it can make a profit at oil price of $15 a barrel. Because of the tax system after tax revenues are stable at the oil companies in Russia, even as government tax revenue declines. All this points to resilience in the short run for the Russian oil industry. The decline in the value of the ruble is seen as an opportunity to shift away from an overdependence on imports during the period of high oil prices. Alexei Kudrin, former Russsian finance minister, sees growth returning for the Russian economy in 2017. This may actually be good news for the struggling economies of U.S., Europe, India, China, and other countries which would be boosted by low oil prices sustained over a longer period- something made possible by competition between big oil producing countries Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, and the profitability of oil production at prices below $30 to $20 a barrel....

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Andrew Lownie's book provides glimpses into the lives of the Mountbattens, Edwina and Dickie. Mountbatten was the head of the British government in India in 1946 as negotiations were started with Nehru, Gandhi and Jinnah for independent India. The Cabinet Mission (including Cripps) plan of 1946 was  to setup a federation in India with provinces in A, B, and C categories. A being the Central Provinces, United Provinces, Bombay, Madras and other parts of what is now India, B being the Punjab, Sind and what is now Pakistan, and C being the region of Bengal, what is now Bangladesh and West Bengal.This was rejected by Nehru, Sardar Patel, and the Indian National Congress, leading to  Jinnah's call for action, a civil war, and the partition of India 9 months before the plan date of June 1948, in chaotic circumstances, in a hurried manner. The legacy of that two year period is with us today in the upheavals in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh, drawing the U.S. and western nations also into endless wars. The period 1939-1941 is covered when Edwina's rather aimless life upto that point changed completely with service to war wounded and for the Red Cross. She also visited the U.S. in 1941 when Mountbatten was given command of an aircraft carrier at Norfolk, Virginia, visiting 28 states. Edwina made up for he aimless years by relentlessly pushing herself to be an equal to her husband in the war effort. This has given the couple their fascinating character. It was also a period of great change as the Labour party under Clement Atlee winning a post war election made the decision to end the British Empire in India. The war had depleted British wealth and Britain lacked the resources to continue the Empire in India. The job of managing the transition went to Mountbatten, a naval officer in the Royal Navy, coming in the tumultuous years of 1946-48 with the quick partition of India under Mountbatten in 1947. Mountbatten stayed after independence in August 1947 as the first Governor General of India.  Edwina and Dickie Mountbatten struck a friendship with Jawaharlal Nehru, and this review in The Hindu shows Jawaharlal, Edwina, Dickie and their daughter Pamela having tea at the residence in Shimla, 1946. Nehru's rejection of the Cabinet Mission plan leading to the appointment of Mountbatten as Viceroy was partly based on his idea that priorities for India post independence was modernizing the economy and reducing poverty. Seven decades later the priorities are still the same, following the experience of Japan, South Korea and China at modernizing the economies in east Asia requiring a greatly accelerated effort.    ...

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This WSJ editorial summarizes the main reasons Republicans and many others object to increase in U.S. contributions as the IMF increases its resources under a new plan. The reforms increase the influence of Brazil, China, India, Turkey and other countries in the IMF governance. Also at issue is European influence that the U.S. sees allowing risky loans to countries such as Greece, where rules were relaxed under EU influence during the eurozone crisis. This topic of IMF reform will be coming up in the G 7 meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Dec 2014 at Sydney, Australia, with the new U.S. IMF representative defending U.S. interests. The case for the reforms was presented in WSJ by Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, and is part of the link.

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The European Commission hits Google with a $4.3 billion fine for antitrust violations on the Android operating system used in smartphones.

The company that created Android was founded by Andy Rubin and Rich Milner in 2003, and acquired by Google in 2005 for $50 million. This article gives a timeline for Android's development. The original Android went through modifications after Apple developed a keyboardless smartphone and introduced it in Jan. 2007. The original Android was a keyboard system like that of Blackberry. Google modified the system to come up with its own smartphone in September 2008 made by HTC in China called HTC Dream. Within 2 years in 2010 Android was used in 33 million smartphones surpassing Nokia at 31 million devices. From Jan. 2007 to 2010 in the space of 3 years the Android system changed the world of mobile phones. 

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Abe's new team in Japan. Yasuhisa Shiozaki one of the more aggressive appointments signalling change balanced by appointments of older men from his faction in the LDP. Hiroko Ota, a protege of Mr. Takenanka becomes economy minister in charge of the council on Economic and Fiscal Policy. Aso continues as foreign minister and will try to smooth Japan-China relations.

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Citic Pacific to acquire Citic Group. The new company listed in Hong Kong to be called Citic Ltd. The listing in Hong Kong means stringent reporting and disclosure requirements. This is an effort to bring reforms to state owned enterprises in China. Premier Deng started China's first market economy measures with Citic founder Reng's participation and initiative to attract foreign investment.

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Adam Neumann, the 40 year old startup founder of WeWork, which is basically a subleaser of real estate space, resigns. Aggressive brash attitude, a party heavy lifestyle, unpredictable decision making,  are cited by WSJ as reasons he lost the confidence of investors. Mr. Dimon of JP Morgan Chase was a key banker for the company. Chase under Dimon pursued startups in the hope of doing the IPO's. The company has substantial losses, and new management was brought in after Softbank decided Neumann should leave. Growth was fast, losses also mounted fast to $1.6 billion. WSJ says many investors decided that WeWork was not a tech company so much as a overvalued real estate company that engaged in business of leasing office space tricked out in millenial friendly decor. The greed for outsize returns has led to the accumulation of capital that could otherwise be spent wisely on infrastructure and other improvements in health and education, even though many of the gains in tech are behind us.  Recently the head of Uber was also asked to resign for an aggressive approach and questionable management style, also with substantial losses, and new management brought in. Fast expansion in an imprudent manner affects established companies. It led to collapse of India's Jet Airways, Britain's Thomas Cook in 2019. Yet the huge amount of capital of tens of billions of dollars wasted as investors seek outsize returns and are disappointed, is a pattern seen mostly in capital markets in the U.S. and to a lesser extent in Europe, China, Japan. The ideas piggyback on some aspect of tech already developed and are not major tech advances by and of themselves, and many as in the case of WeWork are touted as tech because of the catch and appeal of the word for everyone hoping to make an outsize return.    ...

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Bo Xilai is given a sentence of life in prison by the Intermediate People's Court in the eastern city of Jian. He was found guilty on all counts for embezzlement, corruption, and abuse of power. All money received illegally is being confiscated including a house in Cannes in the south of France.

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What is the difference between South Korea and the U.S., Europe in the handling of coronavirus? It is tracking and testing.  President Trump and health adviser Dr. Fauci, see South Korea as the successful model to be followed in controlling the coronavirus. What has happened till now it is accepted with shortage of basic medical supplies and equipment, stress on hospital systems, are merely mitigation actions. South Korea was prepared for the coronavirus crisis because of the MERS and other epidemics, and failures resulting in corrective actions. Labs were centralized and better equipped for testing and tracking the infected. One of the key tools is testing. President Trump says the goal is for the U.S. to exceed and far surpass tests per capita in South Korea. Five million tests are planned by the end of April in the U.S. Where the U.S. falls short is in use of multipronged digital tracking using data from people's use of mobile phones, credit card usage, and use of apps designed to separate infected people from others. South Korea is a democracy with a population of 52 million people, about the size of France. People who were student activists in the democratization era in South Korea say the use of digital technology is a need today. We have to adapt in emergency situation they say. Ki Mo-ran, epidemiologist, and adviser to South Korean government says this is a key part lacking in the European and U.S. efforts to control coronavirus. She says in South Korea we know the patient's contacts, where he goes and stays, so we don't have to lock down everybody. Without digital tracking one cannot know which place is contaminated, which place is clean, so that there can be a lockdown of just that area and not the whole country, says Ki Mo-ran. She asks the question- is one person's privacy more important than the lives of a family or other people who are affected. Is it OK to lockdown every child in the country in a home as in Spain for over a month so that particular people's privacy is respected? These are serious questions for western society, are they exceptions or is democracy not just a western idea but equally cherished in Asian societies, people talk about Confucianism in China and the Asian culture forgetting that the biggest democracies are quite large and functioning well in India in addition to South Korea, Taiwan Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Japan, far larger in area and population than China. The French government has chosen the app TraceTogether as the least intrusive one adaptable to France for use there. The U.S. is having Google and Apple develop one of its own. India will be developing one of its own. The NYT raises the question will it be watered down so much in France or in the U.S. and UK to be less effective than the  dire need for an alternative to lockdowns? ...

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This report on Bangladesh politics and economy is from The Guardian July 14, 2019. In 2009 the Awami League party under Sheikh Hasina contested the election in a Grand Alliance with Gen. Ershad's Jatiya Party winning an absolute majority of the seats. Since then Sheikha Hasina has been prime minister through 4 elections maintaining economic growth through the garment industry till the pandemic and disrupted supply chains hit Bangladesh hard leading to its debt burden doubling in 3 years. This led to turning to the IMF in 2022  with reserves down to $23 billion and student protests over lack of jobs. A second wave of protests led to her ouster in August 2024. This report by Derek Brown in The Guardian shows the changing situation in Bangladesh in the 1980's and 1990's after independence in 1971 following the India-Pakistan 1971 war. Zia Khaled of the BNP and Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League were alternately in power with periods of rule by the Army under Ershad contesting elections as the Jatiya party when the two parties failed to govern effectively. This went on from 1996 till 2009 when Sheikh Hasina began what would be four terms in office for 15 years. The economy was improving by 2019. And then Covid hit - the pandemic had serious effects on the foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh, Sri Lankan and Pakistan economies. Only in India with the efforts of prime minister Modi was the economy put on a sustained growth path, corruption prevented by the personal example of Modi's leadership, and a state led development focus achieved using the example Modi had set in Gujarat as its chief minister for 15 years. The rest of South Asia lacked such firm and decisive leadership that is similar in its focus to the transformation of first Japan and China into leading industrialized nations.  In 2022 Bangladesh followed Sri Lanka and Pakistan in going to the IMF. By 2023 the foreign exchange reserves had declined to $23 billion. In 2024 to $19 billion. Garment economy dependent Bangladesh was seeing the effects of supply chain disruption and decrease in earnings from exports. In 2024 student protests on joblessness and frustration at economic prospects led to the ouster of the Hasina government.  ...

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US president Biden will give his farewell address on Jan 15 at 8 pm Eastern Time. It marks a vital point in a five decade career of public service, unprecedented in US history. Its impact is huge coming at the time of Covid pandemic and at a turning point in rebuilding America's infrastructure. What Biden missed was that migration needed to be brought under control taking immediate action as a top priority in 2021, not getting blindsided by the fact that Republicans were using strong language and the issue had become politicized. Biden did this for tariffs with China in 2020 keeping most of the DJT tariffs, he could have done the same keeping the basic border policies of the DJT administration and negotiating with Republicans in 2021 when he was in a good position to have legislation passed. Which he did late by Feb 2024 with Senator Lankford and Republicans but failed to get it through in the primary election season, by then too late. ...

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The shaping of China's policy for a Air Defense Zone and the role of president Jinping,

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Hong Kong street protests take place to oppose a new law that allows extradition from Hong Kong to mainland China. Carrie Lam who heads the government in Hong Kong continues to support the legislation.

This happens as China and the U.S. are engaged in a trade war with tit for tat tariffs and the U.S. takes action to prevent flow of sensitive technology to China from American companies. The U.S. and China are increasingly at odds in trade and business policies, and the U.S. sees China as a rival to its post war position in Asia, and in technological leadership. China sees human rights in the context of its own history and struggles with colonial powers, and efforts to stall its modernization efforts in the last 3 decades.

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Renault SA sales increased by 3.2% to 2.7 million cars in 2014. Renault does not sell vehicles in the U.S., and it has only a small operation in China. Sales in emerging markets outside of Europe declined from 50% of sales to 46%. Sales in Brazil were up 0.3% and sales in Argentina declined by 40%. Sales in Russia declined. The sales outlook in emerging markets Brazil and Russia is poor for 2015. Renault has been a laggard in China, and plans to make large investments to catch up with competitors. Sales in Europe were significantly better. Sales were 577,601 in France for 2014, an increase of 5.5% over prior year. The most popular model is the Dacia, with sales up 19.1% in 2014 to 511,465, now making up 18.9% of total sales. Renault plans to introduce 5 new models in 2015, and forecasts sales growth of 2%.

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How diagnostic tests in portable toolskits, that patients can use themselves, are being developed at low cost in developing countries like China. This creates the kind of care appropriate for poor countries, where patients need something they can afford, and something that does not require repeat visits to doctors offices or clinics. Ustar Biotechnologies is a Chinese startup, that says it has the technology, costs that the founder says "no one can compete with," and affordable prices for poor countries. The sales of such diagnostic test portable devices or kits is expected to soar in coming years. Quimin You, the inventor and founder of Ustar, graduated in North America and worked with multinationals. His proposals for cheap diagnostic technologies were turned down by multinationals, who in their narrow focus saw these thechnologies undermining their existing products. Now Qimin is back in China with a startup that will do this.

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U.S. senior Republican Senators Lindsay Graham of South Carolina and John McCain of Arizona, are getting ready to launch a wide ranging probe of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential election through cyber attacks. The probe is not limited to DNC hacking and the concern is not just that any one candidate was targeted but for the integrity of the American election process. Even though it is not mentioned in this report in the Washington Post by Demirjian, Senators and Congressmen from the Republican Party in charge of key committees of oversight on foreign policy and defense now see it as their responsibility to prevent an enlargement of cyberattacks as Germany and France face elections. Mr. Trump has said in an interview with Time magazine that Russia was not responsible for cyber attacks, that it "could have been China, it could have been some guy in New Jersey." Senator McCain is readying a probe into cyber attacks into U.S. weapons systems, and U.S. military, as the issue widens in its scope and significance for the West and for the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Asia. Senate Select Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (N.C.) will be working closely with McCain, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, on this particular issue and Senator Mitch McConnell has been apprised of the discussions, according to this report in WP. Senator Graham said- "They'll keep doing more here until they pay a price." Graham will hold a series of investigative hearings in 2017 about Russian meddling and "misadventures throughout the world."  This will include new legislation.  Graham told CNN on Dec. 7, 2016 in strong language- "I am going after Russia in every way you can go after Russia. I think they are one of the most destabilizing influences on the world stage. I think they did interfere with our election, and I want Putin personally to pay the price." During the debates Governor Pence of Indiana, the Vice President elect took a strong position on Russia, and the Vice President's positions on foreign policy and defense are similar to that of the Republican leaders in Congress.  It is hard to remember a time in the post war period when there was such a distinct difference in foreign policy and defense as it relates to Russia between a Republican president and both a Republican Congress and almost all Republican governors. Senator Corker from Tennessee, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is on the short list to be Secretary of State. A related story in the WSJ shows the selection of military leaders for key intelligence, defense and homeland security, and Gen. Petraeus considered for foreign policy, as diverging from historical practice of keeping civilian oversight preeminent in the U.S.. Rep. Peter King, an early supporter of Trump, who is on committees for intelligence and counterterrorism told MSNBC, that he is confident that Trump will not be "taken in by Putin." The U.S. Republican dominated Congress has taken a strong position on Russian interference in Syria and Ukraine. In the House of Representatives Republican Rep. Devin Nunes from California and Rep. Mac Thornberry from Texas are leading efforts on cyber and intelligence as heads of their committees. ...

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A survey by Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper in Feb. 2013 shows 71% support for the Abe government. The effort to reduce the overvalued yen's currency value using monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, fighting deflation by setting a 2% goal for inflation, moral suasion with business leaders to increase wages, are all part of an effort to get the Japanese economy moving again. The Nikkei Stock Average is up nearly one third to 11,000. Unlike previous prime ministers, Abe is prime minister for the second time, and is likely to have a better plan for building public supprt for his economic moves which are described in Japan as "Abenomics." Recent meeings of the EU leaders have taken Japan's currency moves as steps related to fighing deflation and not efforts to manipulate its currency. The Swiss who are major exporting nation like Japan have also taken strong steps to keep their currency at competitive levels, giving Japan a precedent from Europe. With sharply slower growth in emerging markets, in China and India, the revival of growth in Japan would be seen as an encouraging sign in the global economy in 2013-2014....

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World War I was the first major worldwide war since the French Revolution and the Napoleonic wars, and World War II was fought after World War I's punitive reparations exacted from Germany led to the Nazis. US General Pershing did not want to see the French negotiate the settlement, preferring the war to continue till the destruction of the German Empire's war machine rebuilt by the Nazis. Mistakes were made in Europe for which millions of Americans gave their lives to liberate Europe. Russians and Americans see themselves as part of western civilization. On this point there is no difference, none, it is only who is the more important and whose view of the world is right. Asian civilization including China and India see the benefits of western civilization, of the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Scientific Revolution and embrace it wholeheartedly and wish it had come sooner on of their own volition and intent. Other than the Korean and Vietnam wars fought in their origins against the Japanese and the French colonialism and Empires, the wars of the Middle East since the end of colonialism stand out. In Iraq, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen the only other major wars since the 1970's there are religious and ethnic wars that are of no interest to the people of three continents Europe, Americas, and East and South Asia, for whom the spread of nuclear weapons to the Gulf region brings nothing but dangerous developments for their peoples and for the peace of the world. ...

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After the Epping protests on asylum seekers at hotels- 32000 asylum seekers housed in 210 hotels in UK- disturbing public safety, the UK Home Secretary is  in no mood to let illegal migrants disrupt the entire Labour program for reviving Britain's economy. Denmark is the model where Mette Frederickson has bravely fought the battle against illegal migrants and trafficking by smugglers of people across the Mediterranean and across the English Channel. Labour MP's in the north and northeast of England understand this with the option from UK Reform to end this whole thing about illegal migration altogether. Labour has to do soul searching on why it has taken so long to figure this out and why the plan to house immigrants in hotels was put forward in the first place and tougher action taken by Denmark for the last 8 years not adopted earlier. It shows a complete disregard and disrespect for the British system of parliamentary democracy of the 500 years or going back to Magna Carta itself, when the people of Britain and their public safety, their freedom to live in dignity without illegal migrants in their neighborhoods across Britain, is not respected by local and thenational government. This is something that even the people of India, of China, and other Asian countries, African countries, and Latin American countries who understand the contributions of the British parliamentary system to their own governance can readily grasp and respect- the freedom and dignity of the British people in their own neighborhoods to live in complete public safety. ...

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Because of government duties on imported car parts and higher production costs and lack of competition Toyota's hybrid Prius costs $40,000 and Honda's Civic hybrid costs $38,000 in China. The same hybrid costs $21,000 in the USA. a huge difference in price. So Toyota only sold only 414 hybrid Prius cars out of 5.2 million sold in 2007. At these prices buyers can afford a more expensive car or SUV. So the hybrids are coming in on cars like the Buick LaCrosse. In China hybrid owners are status conscious and expect a bigger and better equiped car so there is a cultural difference at work here.

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Oil supplies are not expected to go up with Mexicio and Russia's aging fields crimping production, non opec production barely budging with 1% increase this year according to IEA. Indonesia production down by half from its peak. Countries in the middle east like Iran are consuming more and have less available for export. And the Saudis plan to build huge chemical aluminium and other plants as well as cities in the desert, and increase electricity production. This will take up some of the oil production and make less available for export. Militant strikes have shut down over 25% of production of Nigeria's 2.5 million barrels a day of production repeatedly in the last few years. And Saudi Arabia has according to CERA only 2 million barrels a day of spare capacity or 2.3% that it can add, all of the safety cushion in one country according to Daniel Yergin. Yergin sees prices up to $150 barrel based on the supply constraints. The demand side is showing declining consumption in the USA but not by enough to compensate for growing consumption in China by 5% this year, and the increase in consumption in India, Russia, Brazil and other developing countries including Middle East. The reason for continuing consumption increases in the rest of the world is that price impact has been less severe in Europe because of the strong euro and oil priced in US dollars, and in China because Petrochina is required to put price caps so gasoline price increases are not that harsh. And India also cushions the price impact to some extent to protect consumers. And autos are just taking off in large numbers in China, Russia, India, Brazil and other countries. The drop in consumption in the USA has to be large enough to have an impact. And the shift to fuel efficient targets in the new fuel efficiency regulations in the USA are too modest and over a number of years to have any impact in the short term or in the next 1-3 years. In February US oil demand dropped to 19.7 million barrels a day, down 1 million barrels a day from the US average for 2007, but this insufficient conservation to impact price. Even though new cars are shifting to higher fuel efficient small cars the impact on the total fleet is gradual as cars on the road purchased in the last 5-10 years are still on the road. Even as the consumption falls in the US the offset is occurring in the other countries like China, Russia and India. Some of this is due to the euro and some to speculation but the supply constraints are real and demand momentum is still there in China, Middle east, Russia and India to keep offsetting savings elsewhere and keeping supplies tight. The euro increased in value by 2% while oil prices increased by 10% since the 1st week of April so there is more than the weakening dollar and some speculation to this surge, which may be why the normally cautious Yergin says the price rise to $150 is realistic and says, its not just that the genie is out of the bottle, a hundred genies are out of the bottle. That is to say for the immediate future of demand momentum and supply sluggishness which could run 6-24 months, to the Olympics and maybe a year or so from then. This ties in with the thinking behind the Goldman's estimate and CERA's estimate. ...

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Putin takes the first step for Russia to join in discussions for a lasting peace. More than a ceasefire is needed, as many ceasefires have come and gone and the war is now over 15 years old, pausing for a while and then starting again many times. Russia calls for addressing the underlying issues behind the war.  It started with Russian support for Yakunovich 2010-2014 which ended with the Maidan protests in Kviv and Lviv. Russian and Putin strategy at that time was that as long as  a pro-Russian or a person leaning towards Russia with good relations to the West -as existed in some of the former states in Eastern Europe during the 1980's during the Soviet Union such as Poland and GDR- this would be acceptable. The Maidan protest led upheaval thus had a contrary effect which Germany under Merkel and France under Sarkozy and Hollande failed to grasp. Obama judged Russia by its GDP, ignoring its history and relations among European states as one of the major powers in Europe, a technological state with nuclear power. As China shifted away making the integration of Hong Kong and now Taiwan a priority under president Xi, and asserting the virtue of its state run capitalist system over free market capitalism, the fissures began to develop in the system that prevailed after World War II and which survived the fall of the Berlin Wall. These are some of the origins of the war and are also in some of its aspects geopolitical and relate to world peace,, and peace inside nations in general outside the Ukraine war. And here relate to Venezuela Mexico and US inaction in tackling borders and cartels, the US border with Mexico, Syrian war and Syrian refugees entering Germany/Europe, the anti refugee movements in Germany and the EU, refugee crime in US and Europe, all connected in some way to the unsettled borders of the Russian state with US and Western European + Eastern European states in NATO and the EU nearby. And the limiting or removal of Russian influence in Ukraine seen by Russia as unacceptable in regions nearest to Russia that speak Russian. Britain has the virtues of its parliamentary democracy, yet it is far from Russia's borders and it just like the Russian Empire had an Empire in India and a near thing to an Empire in China, as recently as 1950, over history of western colonial empires of 500 years not too long ago. Which means it is good to be starry eyed but the reality in European history since 1400 is of dominant states and colliding or co-existing spheres of influence, mostly co-existing in some balance of different states in the interests of peace and welfare of the people.     ...

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President Trump says he will reconsider his decision not to join the Trans Pacific Partnership. Trump says he will look for a "substantially better" deal that the one negotiated by president Obama. Trump added that the U.S. already has bilateral trade deals with six of the eleven nations in the TPP and negotiations are taking place with Japan a country with which the U.S. had difficulties in trade. This change of mind comes as Republicans in Congress and other groups including farm exporters are calling for using TPP as a way to pressure China. Wheat exporters in the U.S. say joining TPP would give them a level playing field with Australia and Canada for exports. This means reopening the negotiations with Japan conducted by the Obama administration and seeking more concessions from Japan. Japan's chief cabinet secretary says Japan has made all the concessions it could.  U.S. president Trump would have to come up with a better deal to justify joining TPP.

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The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says in a new report that the cost of renewable energy production in India in 2020 is the lowest of 8 countries, including China, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, U.S. It also points out that India has lowered the cost of solar energy faster than any other country since 2017- by 80% for the period 2010-2018. Solar energy for India in 2018 cost 27% lower than in 2017. Major achievements have been made in solar energy and are continuing with bold targets. In 2020 solar makes up 36% of total energy capacity, with production at 136 gigawatts. In India the conditions with high degree of sunlight in most parts of the country, and the technology cost reductions, lower cost of land and labor, help bring down the cost of solar energy every year. The bold targets and action taken are symbolic of the new efforts in India. The early efforts in India are described as overcoming the hurdle of preconceived notions that electricity shortages had to be accepted as a way of life. In Gujarat the first efforts over 15 years ago were taken by rejecting the idea that electricity could not be made widely and freely available. To do this policy had to be set by starting with first a clean slate and then with a clean heart say pioneers in India's early gains. A clean heart because of how desperately people needed electricity. And a clean slate because how desperately people needed to start from scratch with a new structure and new way of doing things set in place. As Vivekananda put it over 100 years ago "This I have seen in life. One who is overcautious about himself falls into dangers at every step. he who is afraid of losing honor and respect gets only disgrace. He who is always afraid of loss always loses." By taking bold action, making small experiments then setting bold targets and setting structures in place to execute manned with resources, India has achieved 4G in all parts of the country, and is doing the same for renewable energy to make electricity widely available in all parts of the country. ...

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A 1000 mile windswept coastline and 300 days of sunshine make the southern African nation of Namibia an attractive location for green hydrogen projects. Green hydrogen is produced using wind and solar energy. There is a 50 fold increase in green hydrogen projects in just the last 12 months globally. The costly technology needs many projects to get to lower costs through technological advances. Germany is doing a pilot project in Luderitz, Namibia. Luderitz will need a deep water project to ship the fuel out.   Renewable wind and solar energy is used to distil the hydrogen atoms in water, as opposed to the currently used method to maky hydrogen from fossil fuels, known as gray hydrogen, or blue hydrogen if the emissions from fossil fuels are captured. Namibia is chosen as its natural advantages could bring the costs down faster. Other locations being adopted are Morocco, Australia, and Chile. The two sites in Namibia had bids from Africa's Sasol, Australia's Fortescu, Germany's Enertrag and Hyphen Hydrogen.  Hyphen Hydrogen won the bid for the two sites. It says the $9.4 billion project is targeting 300,000 metric tons of green hydrogen production a year from 5 gigawatts of renewable energy generation capacity by 2030. "Now all of a sudden the desert has become valuable," says Namibia's finance minister Mr. Shiimi. Additional asset for Namibia is that it ranks highest after Cape Verde in Africa for transparency, creating ease of doing business. It is ranked 57 in Transparency International rank of transparency for countries in 2020. China is 78, India 86 in rank. Namibia is putting up $45 million for the feasibility study on the project with the sesert scrub land an hour from Luderitz, once a diamond mining town on a rocky Atlantic coastline in 1900. Two sites are located in the area each 675 square miles. South Africa is severely short of energy supplies and a pipeline is being considered to take the Namibian hydrogen to South Africa. The African region is expanding in renewable energy. Lake Turkana Wind Power Project in Kenya provides 17% of installed electricity capacity in Kenya with 365 wind turbines.     ...