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The Biden vaccination target of 70% of American adults at least partially vaccinated with one dose by July 4, 2021 remains elusive as vaccination rates have dropped. From a high of 2 million a day vaccinations have dropped to 400,000 a day during the first week of June 2021. Vaccination skepticism particularly in the south and western part of the US is making it harder to vaccinate the rest of the US population. This poses increasing risks as the new variants of the virus such as the Delta variant found in India, and now the most widely prevalent strain of virus in the UK, remain a serious problem. The unvaccinated population in the US is too large for any degree of safety in numbers vaccinated. Consider that at the press briefing given by the White House on June 3, 2021, only 28 states out of 51 states have fully vaccinated 50% or more of their population. There is a large variation between different states with states in the south such as Mississippi as low as 34% at least one dose and a similar situation in Alabama. In Arkansas, Georgia, Carolinas, and Louisiana  it is higher at about 50% with at least one dose. Even these figures are deceiving as in some parishes in Louisiana only 20% have even one dose. Studies show that only after the second dose are enough antibodies released to protect well against coronavirus. This is why vaccine experts at Baylor College of Medicine cited in NYT foresee a second wave in the southern US because of the South so underachieving in the case of vaccination.  ...

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Michigan Governor Whitmer, a Democrat, says she supports tariffs in a state hit hard by offshoring of American factories and loss of jobs leading to decay of small towns depending on factories. She says tariffs should be done in a way that do not increase cost of living for workers and families. Whitmer calls for distribution of tariff revenues to workers and small businesses hit by tariff related price increases in this op-ed in the Washington Post. DJT has called for a $2000 rebate to go to American workers and their families and all who are impacted by tariffs using the tariff revenues in 2025 and 2026 estimated at $550 billion. Expect to see this money to go out to workers before the midterm elections. 

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Lost in media reporting the net US exports increase of 5% as US asserted it's position as a leading exporter in 2025 has boosted second quarter US GDP growth to 3%. 

In tariff negotiations  and the agreements with European Union and Japan US has asserted it's position as a leading exporting nation, a position it held since the 1920's that was neglected through the ineptitude of previous presidents.

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US $1.5 trillion budget request for 2027 fiscal year by the president for military and defense spending is about 4.7% of US GDP forecast of $31.8 trillion in 2026. In 1960 it was 9% following the Korean War. It dropped to 3.1% of GDP by 2000 and stayed around 3.4% till the current effort to modernization of the US military is thought to require about 5% of GDP.  (World Bank charts). The US spent far higher during an earlier period reaching 14% of GDP in 1953 during the Cold War with the Soviet Union. This report shows WSJ Analysis of where the $1.5 trillion request for Defense is going-  $1.1 trillion for War Department and $350 billion for critical munitions. The munitions are in short supply and war in Iran shows that it plays a critical part in defensive systems such as intercepting of missiles as missiles in short supply affect overall capabilities. An additional $200 billion for Iran War. Pay raises for Defense personnel. $66 billion for shipbuilding- 34 ships to put the US back in the lead for shipbuilding it has lost to China, with the help of Japan which is also ramping up the shipbuilding it has lost to China. US and Japan were leading shipbuilders in the  1930's and in the 1960's, then lost it to South Korea and China. About a 12% decrease in other Department's budgets including Health and Human Services, Treasury, Commerce, Interior, Housing and Agriculture.  These cost reductions some of it coming from more efficient functioning and from concepts such as zero based budgeting where every line item in the budget gets reviewed every year for how much is needed for the purpose, is the purpose still valid, and can it be done more efficiently costing less. $660 billion is coming from the savings. The Nation's capital will also get a facelift, a major renovation, after being ignored for years. In the new Budget is $10 billion for the Presidential Capital Stewardship Program within the National Park Service for beautification projects in Washington D.C., which will give the National Capital a much needed new look for millions of visitors from the 51 states in the Union.    ...

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Kaushik Basu, economist at Cornell University, and Chief Economist at the World Bank, says the U.S. Federal Reserve should consider the current low labor participation rate and low inflation in its rate policy setting decisions in 2015. Basu points out that in the recent past unemployment has gone below the current 5.5% without increasing the risks of inflation. He cites the period from July 1997 to August 2001 when inflation was below 5%, and at some points below 4%, yet inflation in 2002 was close to 2%. The large number of discouraged workers in this economic cycle has placed the unemployment rate below what it really is, says Basu.

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This Times leading article on UK government's coronavirus policy says it is inconsistent, and a muddled effort just as the third wave is accelerating. It asks the public to be cautious when going outside and still opens nightclubs with covid passports not required till the end of September. By August cases could reach 100,000 say experts so that the nightclub and bars reopening can only fuel the rise in cases. The British government must be aware that the Netherlands opened nightclubs and bars in June and this led to a sudden jump in cases with 40% of new cases coming from nightclubs.  The policy is undermining public confidence. It is doing this at the same time as it is asking people to self isolate for 10 days. The policy also does not require covid vaccination pass for all events and for shops and restaurants as is being done in France and in other countries on a regional basis as in Germany. 

 

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The vehicle scrapping policy gets more financing in the 2023 Indian budget. This will have the effect of increasing car sales and jobs as newer cars, buses and other vehicles are put on the road. By increasing electric vehicles it is a fight for climate change prevention. The simple act of removing fossil fuel guzzling older vehicles with newer fuel efficient vehicles cuts oil use and cuts oil import costs. Doing this on scale is what will help in the fight for climate change. In just one move India will remove about 1 million buses, trucks and transport vehicles used by federal and state governments by April 1, 2023.

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The US Fed under Jerome Powell stress tests of 31 banks for 2024 shows the banks can withstand a rise in unemployment to 10% and 36% drop in house prices. This is relevant now that the new administration of DJT makes another effort to correct the huge trade imbalance with China, Mexico and Canada, which itself is destabilizing in the long run and needs to be addressed. The first term of DJT failed to correct the imbalance with new tariffs kept in place by the Biden administration. This is not just one's imagination, reports suggest China has poured $230 billion of subsidies into its EV industry since 2003 mandate given by premier Jen Biao to dominate that industry. And now has capacity of 20 million car production a year, twice the domestic demand in gasoline cars, wanting to send the surplus production to the US and Europe. This isn't the 1930's type of tariffs, it is simply to get a fair even playing field for trade, where no one side is massively subsidizing and dumping which is one of the principles of WTO free trade that is being broken by China and Mexico. Specifically the anti dumping clause in Article 6 of the 1994 GATT agreement on free world trading mechanism to ensure free and fair trade. ...

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The pent up energy from 4 years in the Opposition and the preparation made in the months before the election for the first days in office are reasons cited for the speed in which executive orders were issued on the first day. Another reason is that the president's popularity is high following the election in November and it is likely to slip in the months ahead leading to possible loss of one or both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the midterms of 2026. The president signed executive orders to declare a national emergency at the US Border, to designate gangs and drug traffickers as terrorist organizations, end birthright citizenship, as actions to deliver for the 87% of people in the Pew Research poll and similar numbers in NYT poll who want the US Border and immigration under control. Other actions were about the fentanyl flows from China, Mexico and Canada, not enough is being done by these countries causing 105,000 deaths in 2023 and 107,000 deaths in 2022 alone. When the Vietnam War led to 60,000 deaths there was a huge outcry, nowadays heads of responding agencies have no serious answers, the nation is not in a uproar as it should be. This is what the tariffs are about and this is why the American people do not see tariffs in the way they were used in beggar thy neighbor policy during the Hoover administration of the 1930's. Cities such as Baltimore are hardest hit. Almost every county in America is hit from Knox County Tennessee, Multnomah Oregon, San Francisco California, Camden NJ, Bronx NY, Bernalillo New Mexico, Jefferson Alabama, Philadelphia Pennsylvania, Washington DC, Jefferson Kentucky, Denver Colorado, Milwaukee Wisconsin, Jefferson Alabama, Bernalillo New Mexico, Camden NJ, Bronx NY.   ...

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A lot has been written about inflation in car pricing. This is true also of airlines and hotels this summer. Dawn Gilbertson in the WSJ says the 2023 travel rush continues, hotels and airlines have pricing power, and inflation is squeezing budgets. The solution is to have Plan B destinations, shorter trips, and plan airline reservations in advance looking at different alternatives based on airline and alternative destination choices. Average daily hotel rates have jumped to $180 this year in the US, up 10% since 2022 and 15% since 2019.

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DJT 50% tariff on Brazil called Moraes tariff after Brazil Supreme Court  judge Moraes who put restrictions on social media to clear hate speech on the internet. DJT says the tariff is intended to stop the trial of former president Bolsanaro who lost the election to Lula da Silva a trade unionist, in an extremely close runoff election 50.9% to 49.1% margin of 1.8 percentage points. DJT's margin over Kamala Harris in 2024 was 49.9% to 48.4%-margin of 1.5 percentage points. DJT compares Democratic prosecutors who prosecuted him in the US after his election loss to prosecutors in Brazil who are prosecuting Bolsonaro.

Brazil imports about $50 billion from the states and exports $42 billion with a trade deficit of about $8 billion with the US.

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A major issue during the second wave is that sick patients are being sent home. As hospital beds occupancy reaches a certain point the sick patients are sent home ar kept home till they are very sick. Only the sickest patients get admitted. The U.S. is approaching that point in December 2020. This means that when patients reach the hospital and get the Remdesvir drug and other treatments that work they are much sicker and the probabilities of recovery are smaller than if they would have been admitted and treated earlier. Has enough action been taken to add hospital beds after the first wave to accomodate an expected second wave?

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Iraq is an artifical entity, an artificial state created by the British out of the defeated and disintegrated Ottoman Empire. Created from 3 Ottoman Arab provinces- provinces or vilayets of Mosul province which was mostly Sunni, Baghdad province, the city of Baghdad  mostly Sunni and rural areas Shia, and Basra in the south mostly Shia from tribes who converted to Shia Islam extending the reach of Shia religious sites such as Karbala. Note that the Sunni Arabs were closer to the power structures of the Ottoman Empire than Shia in the 18th and 19th century. As a result post war Iraq in 1950's was dominated by Sunni elites and the British imposed Faisal 1 monarchy of 1921 was thrown out by Sunni elites in the army in 1958 by Karim Kassem, followed by the emergence of Saddam Hussein from Pan Arab Baath socialist ideologies of that period.  After the US wars in Iraq and Iraq- Iran war, Iran mobilized Shia into popular militias. In 2026 Iraq is essentially several ministates pulled together in Baghdad, with Shia, Sunni and Kurdish ministates formed into the governing structure, and everyone praying for no outside interference to pull it all apart and maintain a fragile peace. While the British got Iraq Mandate from League of Nations in 1921 French got Syria provinces of the Ottoman Empire. In fact Sykes and Picot are the British and French diplomats who created artificial states of Iraq and Syria to suit their interests in the region for oil and for controlling Suez and territories in India, Indochina, Hong Kong, parts of coastal China (Shanghai). Why is this important? It is important because at the time Britian dealt with weak Sunni populations that were controlled through monarchs they put in place, and the British and French industrial power had no rivals. Today the Sunnis are mobilized and the Shia have with Iranian support mobilized also, and sectarian wars have torn the place apart for 40 years. America's founding fathers and first president George Washington, would if here today consider this the one place US would have nothing to do with in terms of wars and bases. On oil George Washington would advise America to find alternative sources than get dragged into useless sectarian wars and lose the battle for reindustrialization, after America's elites and their economists have essentially deindustrialized America. It is appropriate for the US president to take action only on grounds of not letting the place fall into regimes with ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons that could reach US and Europe. And for that China and Russia, India and Brazil, Germany and France should also do their part and fulfill responsibilities. As for Britain and France it is appropriate for the US president to say to the posturing in Europe and ambivalent posiions, "Go, get you own oil in the Hormuz," as the US is self sufficient in oil and does not need Iranian or Iraqi oil. It is also appropriate knowing that this Iraq and Syria were created by Sykes and Picot and the British and French to build and sustain their Empires that no longer exist because Turkey and India, and China, through the effort of Gandhi and Ataturk, Sun-Yat Sen and Mao, Brazil also, are now strong independent nations. The message is- if Germany can do it to get only 6% of energy imports from Hormuz straits, so can China and Japan. China and Japan get 90% of their imports from the Hormuz straits and there is no reason why China and Japan, Britain, India need to be so dependent on a region where disruptions have happened again and again for 40 years. If they do not want to change they can assume the responsibilities of keeping Hormuz Straits on their own. ...

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A look at the views of candidates running in the U.S. presidential election of 2016 on mass incarceration. Benie Sanders, Democratic Senator from Vermont, says the situation worsened for incarceration during the Clinton years when a policy of building prisons and increasing law enforcement was adopted. The 2.2 million persons in prison today are double that for the years before the early 1990's, said Sanders. Under president Clinton the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act was passed creating tougher penalties for drug offenders, and putting $30.2 billion for more police officers and new prisons. Hillary Clinton called for putting "an end to the era of mass incarceration." Adding in other remarks that missing African-American men means "missing husbands, missing fathers, and missing brothers."

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A shocking 70% of calories of American children and young people come from industrially manufactured foods and drinks including packaged snacks. A report made by a presidential commission led by Robert Kennedy Jr shows the dire situation for health of American children. The use of ultraprocessed foods and chemical exposure are leading to US children in 2025 being called the "sickest generation." The report assails a faulty medical system which invests too much in research on diseases and does little on understanding and working on prevention of diseases. It assails the "overmedicalization of America's children" and says this has happened because of the pharmaceutical industry's capture of the nation's biomedical apparatus and calls this a stark failure. It says this is a "critical policy failure" where corporate profitability supersedes the health of children. In mental health overdiagnosis and overtreatment are major problems. The report will be discussed at a president Trump event on Thursday, May 22, 2025. ...

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A fellow Christian of Pope Francis who distributed food and blankets to remote villages in the Andean mountains of Peru driving his white pickup truck is the man chosen to lead the Catholic Church in the third decade of the 21st century. He is Robert Francis of Chicago, an American who first came to an Augustinian mission in Peru near the Ecuador border in 1985. In 1988 he returned to Peru, this time to the Augustinian seminary in Trujillo, Peru, where he taught canon law and was a judge in the regional ecclesiastical court. He spent 13 years in Peru before returning to the US in 1998. He was appointed by Pope Francis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, as apostolic administrator of Chiclayo in 1998, then Bishop in 2023 and Cardinal in 2024. In his speech from the Vatican Pope Leo XIV- Robert Francis- switched to Spanish in the middle of his speech. We now have not one but two popes from different parts of Latin America from the Atlantic coast Buenos Aires to the Andes mountains of Peru, knowing that Mexico, Chile, Argentina and Brazil ar Catholic countries, so is Central America and part of the US that is Irish and Italian, Spanish and French. It includes Spanish colonies in Asia such as the Philippines, and Portuguese settlements in Africa. ...

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Fourth quarter 2021 growth in China was 4%. This WSJ report questions the target for 2022 of 5.5% as a Big Reach.

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This video of former Attorney General Bill Barr shows his testimony to the US Congress on president Trump's statements that there was election fraud from voting boxes coming into Detroit at all hours and in the design of voting machines. This led to Mr. Trump saying the election was stolen. Mr. Barr says he told the president that this was "detached from reality" and he feels that it was doing "a disservice to the country."

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All sides had to make concessions to reach a new agreement on a restructuring of Greece's debt, and new terms for loans to Ireland and Portugal. The agreement was reached after negotiations between France, Germany, the ECB, and eurozone countries with a declaration issued on July 21, 2011. The powers and financing of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) were expanded to be the main mechanism for channeling EU funding to reduce the burden of Greece's debt. Germany will provide new funding and be open to additional commitments, something German chancellor Angela Merkel had resisted since the beginning of the crisis in 2010. Earlier funding had come with high interest rates and only when the situation had reached a crisis, with Germany insisting on the punitive rates and conditions as a way to discourage countries from taking advantage of cheap borrowing. In exchange for commitment of German funds Ms Merkel had insisted that banks and private creditors share in the losses. Private bondholders resisted but finally agreed to take a loss of 20% of principal on a small portion of the bonds. Their larger concession was to take lower interest rates and extend the maturities to 15 years and 30 years on new bonds which are guaranteed by the EU. The specific terms of the agreement are as follows: The EFSF and the IMF will lend Greece 109 billion euros over 3 years at 3.5%. Private creditors including German and French banks will "voluntarily" turn in their old bonds for new ones that mature over 15-30 year periods. These new bonds include 15 and 30 year Greek bonds with varying coupons. Some of the bonds would have a 20% discount on principal. EU leaders say the private sector contribution amounts to 37 billion euros through 2014 and 106 billion euros through 2019. Another part of the program is for the EFSF to buy back some of the Greek bonds on the secondary markets, which would mean Greece would now owe a smaller amount to the EFSF on these bonds. The EFSF will now have additional financial support from Germany and other EU countries and be authorized to provide aid to countries before a crisis situation arises. It would also have power to buy Greek bonds at prices on secondary markets to reduce the Greek debt burden. Ireland and Portugal are also assisted in the agreement. The interest rate for EU aid to Ireland and Portugal is taken down to 3.5%. Ireland is paying about 6% on the EU portion of its 67.5 billon euros bailout and efforts to reduce the rate were resisted earlier. The main theme behind these concessions and provisions is to give Greece, (and Ireland and Portugal) a chance to grow. High interest rates came under strong criticism because it only increased the size of the debt burden of these countries with a shrinking economy and high unemployment. The failure to come together behind a broad and sensible agreement with all parties making serious concessions, the EU, the ECB and the political leadership in these countries especially Greece, was undermining confidence in the euro and the eurozone itself. By mid-July Italy and Spain were feeling the effects of contagion in the financial markets, U.S. debt ceiling negotiations were unsettling global financial markets, the pressure was intense to come up with the workable agreement achieved on July 21, 2011. ...

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It is important to know the cause of 0.3% contraction in first quarter 2025 for US economy. It is says WSJ because of a 5% hit from net exports, the difference between exports and imports, as importers rushed to import more before a tariff deadline. Imports by the US increased by 42% in first quarter 2025. Some include MIchigan Governor Whitmer who supports the tariffs as a way to take back America's industrial base, build factories in the US, say the uncertainty of the way tariffs were implemented is damaging confidence in the economy. For instance could the US have excluded the EU, Japan, UK, India as allies, and focused on China.  The problem with that approach is that it would single out China. It means other nations Japan, South Korea, Germany are not investing in the US, also have used trade for unfair advantage, are not called out. This would put China in an odd position. It is better to call out all who benefited from unfair advantage including China, Germany, Japan South Korea, Taiwan, because this has more credibility, giving all a honest and fair picture that they could then look at themselves in the mirror and correct. In the short run it looks messy, the tariff methods look erratic and back and forth increasing tariffs is also messy and unruy. Yet when every major trading nation knows deep inside that US is only saying it like it is asking only for fairness in trade, it will lead it to negotiate a fair trade agreement with US. ...

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The Biden administration published an online security rule to strengthen its legal backing for restrictions on foreign based apps, including TikTok. It provides additional criteria the Commerce Secretary can use to restrict such apps that present "undue or unacceptable risks." Instead of the wording "subject to foreign coercion", there is the wording "subject to the jurisdiction or direction of a foreign adversary." WSJ throws light on the legal challenges called the Berman amendments. Berman's amendments took away the right of the president of the US to regulate or ban "informational materials" from adversarial nations. It was written at the end of the Cold War and is seen as needing to be completely rewritten.

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Home energy prices in the European Union eased to 25% over the prior year in December 2022 from 35% the prior month. Consumer prices eased from 10% to 9% in December.