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Since 2002 when the AKP came to power consumer loans have surged from 2 billion Turkish lira to 129 billion lira or $81.55 billion. While this has created a larger middle class, the huge expansion of credit puts the economy at risk say analysts. Turkey is taking in imports at a rapid rate and the current account deficit is now 8.1% of GDP. The ratio of the current aaccount deficit to foreign exchange transactions is at 37%, according to Ankara based economic research foundation Tepav. This is significantly above the level reached before Turkey's last four economic crashes. The EU is Turkey's biggest market for exports, and the fastest growing market is the Middle East. With the economic growth sluggish in both regions the prospects for Turkish exports increasing is weak. Signs of excess are visible in Istanbul. A shopping mall for cars is being built the size of three sports stadiums with a test track on the roof called Autopia. Prime minister Erdogan talks about building a huge new shipping canal that would bypass the crowded shipping in the Bosporus. And the elections are being fought for the AKP to get more than 330 seats out of 550 in parliament, which would enable the AKP to change the constitution. This will be an unneeded distraction for the country at a time when economic policy needs a sharp focus to reduce the current account deficit before it is too late....

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The latest Commerzbank estimates show Germany and Japan, both with large capital goods industry, showing declining GDP of about 7% in 2009. That is a steep decline stemming from the lower demand in industrializing countries like China, India and other countries. The German government has only committed so far 88 billion euros ($120 billion) or 3.5% of GDP. To get some idea what the German government is thinking look at the GDP numbers from the government, which show only a 2.25% decline. Compare this with other estimates closer to Commerzbank's estimate- BNP Paribas shows 5.4% contraction, Deutsche Bank 5%, German think tank DIW 4-5% drop. And the government estimate scheduled date for revision is April 29. This may explain the gap between what the Obama administration is saying to the Europeans: you need further stimulus, and what the Chancellor Merkel is saying: we will be just fine. The French government is saying saying the same thing the German government is saying. But France with a smaller export industry is expected to see a drop of less than 4%, the USA 4%, by Commerzbank estimates. Experts say as German elections approach in September, Merkel is going to have to respond with larger stimulus amid large job losses. And sentiment may be shifting in France as job losses mount, as evidenced by large turnout across France calling on the government to help in recent demonstrations....

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Is the market in S. Korea reflecting the bursting of the housing bubble in the USA, or is it simply a result of the Roh government's new taxes and rules for real estate such as the capital gains taxes of a shigh as 60% and the restriction on loan size so that monthly payments do not exceed 40% of monthly income. If its the new rules then it must be true that the crisis in the USA must have made the pause from the Roh measures give the market time to reflect. One factor is the oversupply from the building boom especially since the new housing had become increasingly unaffordable to average South Koreans at 100 time average income a 3 bedroom apartment cost $2 million in Seoul. A real estate Professor at Konkuk University estimates that about 1 million units will come onto the market by 2013. 2013 thats because the construction has continued even as sales have come to a near halt. Apartment prices have gone up 3% in 2008 compared to 93% in the last 5 years according to Kookmin Bank. What does this mean for the other Asian markets such as China, India and other Asia. Its not just speculation thats disappearing, but is there a sense that the market for Asian goods in the USA, especially for export powerhouses in Asia such as South Korea, is taking a hit from the credit and housing crisis in the USA. And if thats the case what does this mean for other Asian housing markets in bubble mode, consider this a Early Warning Link. See the link to the South Korean election where even corruption charges against the favored candidate are not affecting his popularity because he is seen as a candidate to who could help S. Korea overcome fears about the economic future. Comments that the current crisis is tougher for real estate and construction than the one during the Korean financial crisis of the 1990's suggest that this is something serious. ...

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Jeremy Corbyn is reelected leader of the Labor Party with the support of young people. He is seen here from the European viewpoint as a disaster for Britain. The parliamentary group of the Labor Party opposes Corbyn, and is critical of him for not supporting the Brexit no vote the way he should have. Corbyn did not come out strongly in favor of staying in the EU, giving it a 7.5 out of 10 score when asked how he would rate the EU. Only a fifth of British voters support the idea of Corbyn as prime minister. He is good at bringing people's concerns for attention at prime minister's questions, rides a bicycle to work, and is honest about his convictions. Yet this is not enough to be effective as a leader of the opposition who lacks the support of his party's members in parliament. Corbyn has also dropped people with different opinions from the leadership in the Labor party in a nasty fight with people who disagree with him, which is bad for the Labor Party. This has weakened Labor to the point where it cannot function as an effective Opposition Party, especially now that Britain enters Brexit negotiations and needs an opposition to act as a check on the government's policies. The Economist magazine in London shares these concerns in an editorial. ...

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Donald Trump's remarks at a Wilmington rally that caused a storm- "Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish the Second Amendment. By the way, and if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do folks. But the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don't know." The second Amendment in the U.S. Constitution gives people the right to bear arms. Some newspapers saw it as threat, especially considering the heated rhetoric in Trump's other remarks in his campaigning. Speaker Paul Ryan called it a joke gone bad, and that the Second Amendment should not be talked about in this way.

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France's finance minister says the government will focus on growth and set deficit targets that will support growth. There is a feeling in the business community that France has reached the limit for tax increases. The government has given up the goal of reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013. The government says the deficit will be about 4.1% in 2013 and 3.6% in 2014. Economic growth is expected to be only about 0.1% for 2013, and 0.9% for 2014, lower than earlier forecasts. Muscovici has said the French are fed up with higher taxes, and he is looking for savings in spending. About 15 billion euros of savings are planned in the 2014 budget from ministry expenses and healthcare spending. Extra taxes of 6 billion euros planned for the 2014 budget will now be cut to 3 billion euros. To increase growth it is necessary to stabilize taxation and give business a clear picture for 2014-2015.

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The New York Times editorial on the violent military action against Morsi protest camps near Cairo University on August 14. NYT calls for cutting off the $1.3 billion in aid to Egypt. Baradei, Morsi, and the moderates are seen as complicit in letting the military take advantage of the split in the political parties through their failure to reach a compromise on constitutional and other issues. NYT calls it a foreign policy disaster for the U.S. and a tragedy for Egypt to return to military rule. U.S. president Obama is seen as having shown lack of leadership for both Egypt and Syria. The likely conclusion being that the low key approach has failed and the opportunity for a more peaceful Middle East focussed on improving the living conditions of the people in the region has been lost through inaction.

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The differences between prime minister Netanyahu of Israel and U.S. president Obama during the conflict with Hamas in 2014. U.S. relations with Israel reach another low point.

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Niger, a country in Northern Africa, which has in its northern desert large deposits of uranium. The Chinese and the French run mines for uranium in Niger. The Tuareg tribesmen in Niger are figting the government of Niger for control of this precious resource, which they say is being squandered through corruption and waste. Here NYT reporter Lydia Polgren interviews a Tuareg tribesmen studying in Algeria, who has participated in the struggle in the Atlas mountains.

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An economic solution to the Congolese war between Rwanda and the Congolese government in Kinshashafor the eastern provinces that are a1000 miles from Kinshasha. The proposal is from Herman Cohen who was assistant Secretary of state for Africa from 1989 to 1993. It call for a economic common market for the east African nations of Congo eastern provinces andRwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Africa that have trading relations through the Indian ocean ports and payment of royalties to the Congolese government for use of forests and lands in the east which are in the proximity of these eastern African countries. The US and the EU have to take the lead.

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In parts of the country like South Mountain near Phoenix the prison rate is 6 for every 100 people. The overall prison rate according to a Pew study is 1 person for 41 for black people 1 for 96 for Hispanics and 1 for 245 for whites. So Black and Hispanic people are the most overrepresented in the nations prison system. Arizona spends $900 million on corrections. Black people between the ages of 17 and 35 are extinct in South Mountain say some older residents of this area who take care of the grandchildren left behind. The emphasis on law enforcement has created safer quieter neighborhoods but it has also created a problem of missing young people.

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Barrack Obama made a memorable speech on March 18, 2008 in Philadelphia, on the whole race question and his relationship with Reverend Wright and the Trinity Church.

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In a time of relative prosperity in the first months after the boom years uptil 2007, in April 2008 to be specific, it is strange but true that food crisis is overshadowing the credit and housing crisis in the USA. At the G7 meeting, World Bank president, Zoellick, made a passionate statement about the crisis that is developing across Asia and developing countries elsewhere as food prices go through the roof. The World Bank and the IMF are stepping in, but the focus at the G7 meeting was on the US dollar and the world financial system. There have been serious problems about food shortages in Philippines, Indonesia, Haiti and Egypt, and even in other countries like China and India the increase in the price of rice by 146% makes for a serious food crisis. See the link to this.

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The electricity grid in Africa is being strained by electricity demands of mining companies. Power outages are costing African economies as much as 2% of their GDP according to World Bank estimates. Energy shortages in South Africa are creating blackouts in South Africa and neighboring countries Botswana and Zambia and affecting the mining industry in these countries. South Africa's energy company Eskom is petitioning regulators for a hike of 50% in electricity prices to reduce demand. Shortages of electricity have increased prices of platiinum and other metals in the commodities industry. Mining in South Africa produces 7% of GDP but consumes 17% of the electricity leaving less for domestic consumption and for industry. Eskopm was late in ordering new plants not taking action till 2004. For Africa the total electricity generating capacity of 63 gigawats supplies 770 million people about what Spain generates for 40 million people. And the expression energy poor means that this shortage in urban areas means the rural poor wil have no electricity for decades to come. And in places like energy rich Port Harcourt Nigeria electricity is inconsistent or in dire shortage. An accountant at a construction firm in Dakar, Senegal has to choose between paying his child's school fees or paying for electricity, chooses to pay for electricity as prices have gone up by 88% in 3 years. And rural areas of Africa have little hope of electricity. This is another sign of how adverse effects of huge energy consumption in places like China and the wasteful consumption in the USA affect global energy prices and in turn affect the poorest in Africa. In places where the voices will never be heard. How boom times in some Asian and westen economies can lead to choices like fuel guzzling vehicles and energy wasteful plants in China that reverberate across Africa....

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NIgeria needs $60 billion betwen 2008 to 2012 to fund oil development costs, its share of the funding of joint projects with international oil companies. But the Nigerian state oil company needs to borrow half that amount. And credit markes are tight and will remain so for a long time so where will it find the money to fund shortfalls. Nigerian foreign minister said last week that production was just 1.5 million barrels a day. Observers pegged production at 2 million barrels a day. Violence in the Niger Delta is raising production costs ant CEO of Amni Nigerian oil company says costs are 250 percent higher than offshore counting security costs and kidnapping insurance for employees. Other problems with west african production are the high costs of developing the offshore fields and their rapid depletion rates as international oil companies seek to recoup their costs quickly. So even as new drilling takes place in offshore fields in Angola and Guinea the outlook is not so good. Consultancy John Mckenzie sees production declining by 2013. And PFC Energy estimates sees production peak at 7.1 million barrels a day in 2014 from current 5.8 million barrels. In the past African production has made up for declines in places like Russia and Mexico, now this is less likely. ...

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Single parent homes and black poverty levels with more than half of black children born to single parent homes even today. The barriers to getting out of poverty and the barriers to getting a better education are much higher for children born in single parent homes.

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On the way the majority of people in China's rural areas live, and how their lives have worsened with the market system. A lack of democracy makes it harder for them to get a fair allocation of resources. Lack of press freedoms and no constraints on authorites at the provincial and county levels makes the situation even worse.The support systems for health, education have collapsed in the rural areas. Even though life was drab in the Maoist period, basics such as health care and education were free or nearly free. Efforts are to throw more money at the problem are being made. The government has allocated an higher amount of 340 billion yuan or $42 billion for agricultural development and rural services. But as the Economist points out the money is only about an additional $7 per person for the 800 million in the countryside. A large part of the problem is that the lower levels of the government are run incompetently. The lack of democracy means that these officials are not accountable to the people they govern. No effort has been made to make these officials accountable by having elections at the township, county and provincial level. The Communist party is placing all its hopes of keeping a monopoly of power on its ability to spend and manage its way. The Economist's prediction is that this will fail because only democracy can bring the kind of accountability that is needed in the rural areas. ...