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Dominic Raab Britain's Foreign Secretary reflects on the period when Boris Johnson was in hospital for close to 1 month when he took over running the government in Johnson's place. Raab took over when Boris Johnson was admitted to hospital with coronavirus on April 5, 2020. With Mr. Trump admitted to Walter Reed Hospital the situation in Washington D.C brings back memories of the difficult days in April in London.

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Each party, is trying to put pressure on the other with dueling bills in Congress, as the federal government shutdown continues in the U.S.  Mr. Trump's proposal includes the $5.7 billion to construct a steel barrier along the border with Mexico.    

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In the end only concerted pressure from the U.S. including the personal intervention of president Trump, calls from Republican senators to Prince Abdulaziz, Saudi energy minister, salvaged a deal for OPEC+ oil cuts. The Saudis insisted Mexico cut production by 300,000 barrels a day, Mexico stood firm at 100,000 barrels a day. As the Mexican energy negotiator Ms Nahle withdrew to call Mexican president Lopez Obrador, the Saudi energy minister called this "disrespectful." Then president Trump intervened with calls and offered to make up with additional 300,000 barrels a day of cuts from the U.S. North Dakota senator called Prince Abdulaziz and stated that it could affect the U.S.-Saudi relationship if the Saudis did not come to an agreement. The agreement is for 23 countries to in total withdraw 9.7 billion barrels a day from the market, or 13% of world production. Oil production is expected to fall by as much as 30 million barrels a day in April 2020 as a result of the pandemic so it is not clear how much this will raise oil prices, yet it averts a complete collapse of oil prices from the $22 today when markets open on Monday April 13, 2020.  The U.S. Canada, Brazil and G20 countries outside OPEC will make a combined 3.7 million barrels a day in cuts. Saudis, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates combined will cut 2 million barrels a day above their quota.  In addition to warning both sides Saudis and Russia to come to an agreement, president Trump threatened to retaliate to protect U.S. producers from very low oil prices sending many into bankruptcy. Prince Abdulaziz took a tough stand with Mexico and other OPEC countries to present a unified stand. He is the son of the Saudi king and took the energy ministry in fall 2019. He has had difficulty in managing OPEC plus Russia called OPEC+ as its new chief with divergent views from small producers such as Angola and large producers such as Russia. At a conference in February he continued the standoff with Russia saying Russia would regret not making the production cuts he was calling for. The split with Russia after a 3 year collaboration for cuts ended in an all out price war right in the middle of a pandemic.  The Russians underestimated the size and impact of the pandemic. The Saudis took a firm position. Only president Trump's swift and active intervention and offering to make up Mexico's share of cuts saved the day for all oil producing countries, who would all be severely hurt by sinking oil prices below $20 a barrel.     ...

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This New Yorker has resilence in his roots in the Scottish Hebrides islands. No wonder he was able to take up the challenge of a US unable to extricate itself from  wars in the Middle East (Reagan, Bushes, Obama), and unfair trade with China, and an onslaught of unfavorable media attention. His name is DJT. According to the BBC in this story on Donald Trump's mother Mary Ann Mcleod, she was a regular churchgoer, well respected in the community, who visited her homeland in Scottish isle of Lewis, British Hebrides, frequently. Mary Ann McLeod is the youngest of 10 children of a Scottish family in the town of Tong in the Hebridean isle of Lewis in the North Sea, northwest of the Scotland mainland. Her father ran the local post office. The family was  relatively poor coming from Scottish people cleared of Highlanders during the Clearances and with fishing disasters in the family. Two hundred servicemen returning from the first world war to Tong lost their lives in a shipping disaster and the economy of the island was in poor shape. With no opportunities or future many immigrated to Canada. Mary Ann's sister Catherine immigrated to Canada and on a visit to Tong she took Mary back with her to New York in 1930. Mary worked as a nanny for a wealthy family in New York before meeting a socialite of German immigrants Fred Trump. Mary returned to Scotland in 1934 and by then she found a new life with Fred Trump whom she married. The couple lived in a wealthy area of Queens and Fred Trump ran a real estate business he had inherited with his mother. Donald Trump still has three cousins in Tong in the British Hebrides Scottish isles. His older sister Maryanne Trump Barry regularly visited Tong. Donald Trump visited Tong in 2008. Of this family a local who knows the cousins and the family John MacIver, a local councillor and friend of the cousins told BBC in 2017- "They are very nice, gentle people and I'm sure they don't want all the publicity that's around. I quite understand that they don't want to talk about it."   ...

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The Fed and FDIC issue a report on the failure to regulate SVB and Signature bank. It says the failure to regulate stems from the law passed by Congress leaving a gap for regulation of mid sized banks, and the appointment of Randall Quarles to the Fed supervisory position by then president Trump in 2019. The result was a 40% decline in hours spent by supervisory regulators on the SVB bank even as its assets grew rapidly. Overall the supervisory hours for the Federal Reserve system as a whole declined. This led to cultural issues under Mr. Trump where less regulation the better was the prevailing attitude. Fed report in Fedspeak says- "Staff felt a shift in culture and expectations from internal discussions and observed behaviour that changed how regulation was executed." It would take a special effort by the Biden administration to bring the situation under control to keep the nation's banking system healthy and strong to support the investments the economy needs. After the 2009 crisis and the decade lost to the US economy and the American people from losses in unemployment and savings as a result of deregulated banks, another crisis was prevented. This time the Fed, FDIC, General Accountability Office are all clear about the value and role of regulation in a properly functioning economy, instead of the pushback after the 2009 crisis to regulation. Once again president Biden has shown the way.   ...

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For the approaching US midterm elections president Biden seeks to draw a sharp contrast with Republican Senator Rick Scott's Plan which he says would worsen inflation and increase taxes on working class families. Mr. Scott's plan is for sunset on all federal legislation and president Biden says this would include Medicare and Social Security. Mr. Scott also wants all Americans to pay some income tax to have skin in the game. At this time about half of all Americans pay no taxes says Mr. Scott. Former US president Trump continues to lead the Republican party in 2022  yet he faces a very different Democratic party under president Biden. Mr. Biden's focus is on his $2 trillion plan for Workers and Families, rebuilding American manufacturing and renewing supply chains, unlike Hillary Clinton whose lacked such a focus. Leading to Mr. Trump's appeal with working class families and disdain for traditional Republican policies that secured him the presidency in 2018 by defeating Hillary Clinton. The changes with president Biden's focus on workers and families are happening also in the European Union. Scholz and the Greens in Germany, Macron in France with potentially Melenchon as prime minister, and similar changes in Denmark and other EU countries suggest that there is a renewed focus on infrastructure, rebuilding manufacturing and supply chain renewal, rebuilding incomes and lives of workers and families, in Europe and the US. ...

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U.S. strategy has shifted to keeping tariffs on Chinese imports intact as an enforcement mechanism to make sure China keeps to its commitments made in negotiations, says WSJ. U.S. trade negotiator Mr. Lighthizer sees the latest tariffs as leverage, and that tariffs would be removed only when China keeps its commitments made to the U.S. Initially Lighthizer opposed the move for additional tariffs imposed on September 1. Now he accepts the strategy to use tariffs as leverage. Mr. Trump told the Economic Club of New York that if no deal is reached in phase one then the U.S. will "substantially raise those tariffs, they are going to be raised very substantially." Because China is seen as not willing to provide written commitments with enforcement provisions the U.S. strategy has shifted to making the tariff removal an enforcement mechanism. President Trump has committed on the campaign trail to correct misalignment in trade with China. He makes the final decision in negotiations and use his negotiating style.  China sees making commitments on stopping all subsidies as affecting its sovereignty and its industrial model of state sponsored capitalism since opening in the 1990's to trade with the world. Both sides are looking for ways to gain the maximum concessions in Phase 1 of the trade deal as it is very uncertain whether any further progress can be made given the positions on each side, say experts. ...

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When Whitmer in Michigan said "FIx the Damn Roads" that is exactly the kind of language people wanted to hear. Harris and Walz should do the same. They should take up Border Security in a big way face the issue head on. President Biden has already used executive action to cut migrant flow at the border. The next step is take up the issue and defuse it for good. It was evident in Arizona today when Harris said she would sign into law the legislation negotiated by Republican Senator Lankford that passed the Senate and was held up by Trump for making it an election issue. Lankford says in today's NYT August 10 interview shown in this page that the bill would have passed in December 2023, once Trump became the nominee in February 2024 he realized it had no chance. Harris needs to repeat that at every rally "We will Pass the Lankford -Biden Immigration Bill" "Smash the Gangs" that is the message Starmer took from Labour Together think tank paper "Migration and Insecurity." Keir Starmer studied the issue of immigration carefully and told the public he was different - he would tackle illegal immigration head-on. He said he would "Smash the Gangs" benefitting from illegal migrants. In his first week the setup the Border Security Command. That week it was shown that Tories wasted time and money on Rwanda scheme that had deported hardly a couple of migrants. ...

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During 2018 negotiations China's vice premier Liu He asked finance business leaders "We need your help." This included  Black Rock, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and others. In exchange China which has protected its financial markets from American finance companies now offered to give some opportunities, though as other companies in other industries have found out this could be limited by other priorities.  The Trump and now the Biden administration are pursuing the decoupling of the Chinese and American economies after learning through two decades that it is damaging to the U.S. economic position in the world. The new law passed by unanimous vote in Congress to be signed into law by president Trump requires Chinese companies to have financial audits inspected by U.S. regulatory agency for them to remain listed on U.S. exchanges. However as the WSJ points out in a separate article this does not restrict Chinese companies access to global capital in unfair competition with the U.S. because the law goes into effect over 3 years giving Chinese companies. American investors can also invest in the Chinese companies on the Hong Kong stock exchange unless their entire thinking process changes seeing what is best for America as best for them. ...

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Without government aid about 12 million more people would have fallen into poverty in the US during the pandemic in 2020-2021. This is evident from census figures analyzed in the WSJ and NYT. The Supplemental Poverty Measure -which takes into account a broader range of income and expenses including hundreds of billions of dollars of pandemic aid -shows that poverty actually declined, dropping by 2.9% to 9.1%, as a result of government taking action in the US under the Trump and Biden administrations. The $400 billion  dollars of stimulus checks and aid during the Trump and Biden administrations in 2021 have made a real difference in the lives of not just poor Americans but Americans in the middle class and all sections of society. Similar aid was delivered in the European Union and Britain. In India government aid was distributed by depositing money directly into hundreds of millions of bank accounts of poor and marginal income people. Aid included food aid in grains, lentils and vegetables directly provided at subsidized prices or free by the government. Right wing or left wing government designations were meaningless as governments of different persuasions acted decisively to provide direct and timely help in US, Europe, and India. ...

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Global supply chains in industries such as clothing and other consumer items, in autos, and in tech products are changing as the shift away from China continues with the Trump administration's tariffs war. The clothing and other consumer products manufacturing is shifting away from China. Auto production is centred on regional hubs for manufacturing under renegotiated trade agreements such as the one that replaced NAFTA in North America, correcting imbalances in wages and U.S. content. Mexico gets to stay as a auto hub with exports of $50 billion in 2018 but under new rules that the Trump administration sees as fair. India is being considered as an auto production hub in Asia. In tech products China continues to have an edge but this is changing gradually. Samsung has built a huge smartphone manufacturing complex in Vietnam. South east Asia is a beneficiary, so is Mexico. In the future India stands to gain as its manufacturing base expands and infrastructure develops. In this changed scenario China will be moving to produce more advanced technological products, as it shifts away from lower end products. This will also correct some of the grossly unfavorable trade imbalances that have developed with the U.S. ...

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DJT says Iran does not want to talk to the Europeans, it wants to talk to the Americans. He says it is hard to stop the war when one side is winning. Russia and the US have better relations than under the Biden administration which is proving to be an important factor in this war. As it is about nuclear proliferation, not regional powers- the Israelis, the Saudis and the Iranians. Both Russia and the US are technologically sophisticated powers with different interests, they are world powers because they have first and foremost important responsibilities in nuclear non proliferation and the health of the planet. By allowing regional conflict in Eastern Europe to cloud this fact and not engage with Russia as a world power the US under Obama and Biden had failed to grasp a key principle of peaceful relations since World War II. We argue that "western powers" is a concept of colonial powers France and Britain, and western civilization is the reliable concept that includes Russia, and includes China and India that have embraced the creation of the modern world by western civilization. ...

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Rep. Wesley Hunt is flown to Washington from campaigning in Texas to get the vote in the US House of Representatives to 215-215 on a War Powers Resolution on the president's action in Venezuela. He was driven directly to the House with escort from the Washington Dulles Airport by Capitol Police. Such is the drama in the House nowadays as Democrats look for ways to restrict the president's action in the international arena on the Monroe Doctrine. The resolution if passed would require Congress to authorize the action to deploy troops. The Venezuelan action was taken quickly in a few hours bringing Maduro to the US. The US set a naval blockade of the country which has fallen apart with high inflation and mismanagement, corruption and drug trafficking after Chavez entered Venezuelan politics with a military coup in 1998 and set up an authoritarian government. When he died the power was handed to a person who lacked experience tackling a complex oil economy and inflation reached 1000 percent destroying the economy. The Monroe doctrine had fallen into disuse since 1824 and its revival in 1904 by Teddy Roosevelt which made it difficult for the US to take action in the interests of peace and security in its neighborhood free of European colonial powers. Russia withdrew from Venezuela after the Trump administration set a new start for US Russia relations based on "respect" for Russia as a power in Northern Europe. In 1824 the situation facing Venezuela and other South American countries blocked by president Monroe was intervention by France, Spain to collect debts.  President Teddy Roosevelt affirmed the Monroe Doctrine during his term 1900-1909 to ensure fairplay, democratic governance and good governance in the western hemisphere free of European powers. In 2026 much of this is being misrepresented in a torrent of what TR called "mendacity." The issue of Greenland and security for the Eastern seaboard of America from foreign powers is also getting the same treatment by the US and European press with no mention of Admiral Perry's discoveries in Greenland for the US Navy in 1890's, and Denmark as a colonial power which had no belief in representation of local people having transferred its colonies in Asia and other parts of the world to other nations for payment or in exchange of territory. The entire population of Denmark of 6 million is smaller than the Houston area and the entire population of Greenland of 50,000 would not fill a baseball stadium, and yet it seeks to block US security for the entire eastern seaboard of  North America from foreign powers in 2026 after it did so in 1947 when Harry Truman offered $100 million for Greenland, as the Cold War intensified in Eastern Europe. ...

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German views on Trump's economic policies are described by DW.com's Jeffrey Michels. German business sees a Trump presidency increasing the uncertainty affecting the global economy, a kind of second hit after the hit from Brexit. There is concern about the $114 billion euros in exports made by Germany to the U.S., because of Trump's increasingly protectionist policies. Trump could move to the centre, but so far these populist policies have helped Trump win in the primaries, and this is unlikely to change in the election campaign,  says DW.com.  Trump opposes the TTIP trade agreement with European Union, and because of opposition in Germany, these negotiations are likely to flounder. Even under a Clinton presidency there is little support for more trade agreements, and economist Krugman points out that most of the gains from free trade have already been made. 

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As 22 million Americans go on unemployment benefits some Americans protest in states such as Michigan and North Carolina, Virginia. Even though Michigan was hard hit the western part of the state is quite different from the south east and Detroit which were hit hard. As the situation is different in each state and also by county president Trump has made it clear that it is the governors of the states who will decide and also the reopening could be varied by county. President Trump is also looking at other countries which are reopening in phases such as Germany where April 20, May 4, are dates for phases of reopening starting April 20 with small shops less than 800 square meters in space. European Union is similar to the U.S. in size. Germany went in front, but France like New York is coming in the back of this. France hit hard, has extended the lockdown till May 11.

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The Obama administration started the first term in office with efforts at reaching agreement on reducing nuclear arsenals. By the second term of the Obama administration the talks were already faltering. The war in Syria and Iraq and other conflicts in the Ukraine led to worsening relations with Russia. During the first year of the Trump administration that followed the two Obama terms in office the situation is completely reversed from what it was in 2008, showing that more than good intentions are needed to pave the way for reducing nuclear weapons. The expansion of NATO to Russian borders, the conflict in the Ukraine, the sanctions that hurt the Russian economy in Obama's second term did more to destabilize relations. The Trump administration's ambivalence towards Russia is not seen in the way the U.S. is responding to Russia'a policy actions to expand its nuclear weapons capabilities.

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Title 42, a Trump administration rule made it possible to send back migrants from Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvaor and Mexico now accounts for only 40% of immigrants, the rest are from other countries such as Nicaragua with which the US has no relations for sending people back. People from countries such as Russia, India are also crossing the border in this way. The US Supreme Court recently ruled that Title 42 cannot be terminated till it has looked at in more detail. The result is that people from many countries have crossed the the US border with Mexico in large numbers in 2022.

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There is much criticism of a $900 billion stimulus bill that only provides $600 direct payment checks to families suffering lost income during the pandemic. About $200 billion goes to business in the Paycheck Protection Program of which $120 billion goes to the most affluent 1% of Americans.

President Trump was critical and called for $2000 in direct checks saying it was scandalous that families would only get $600 in direct payment while lobbying interests and other interests were getting significant sums of money. Part of the Democratic Party has also favored a decent check to families.

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U.S. gasoline demand is at about 8.6-9.2 million barrels a day down from the 9.6 -10 million barrels a day before mid March. It fell to 5 million barrels a day in April when prices were briefly at zero before recovering with the oil deal negotiated by president Trump. The lack of school reopenings, offices still closed and the surge in the pandemic in July and August has led to drop in the outlook for oil demand. Oil prices are now in the low $40's per barrel. Yet the overall recovery is strong considering that it is only 6 months into the pandemic.

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Gina Raimondo, US Commerce Secretary, visits Beijing to help restore key aspects of the US China trade and business relationship. Her visit follows visits by Anthony Blinken and Janet Yellen that helped rebuild the relationship after the pandemic and the rhetoric and actions of the Trump administration had weakened ties. The balloon incident and the visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan further strained relationship with China. This is changing as China increases engagement following the pandemic and president Xi is expected to visit the US for an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC meeting in November at which president Biden will meet Xi.

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Three young labor activists outside the UAW union helped UAW leader Shawn Fain orchestrate the strategy of selective walkouts, putting the worker demands in the public consciousness, and influencing public opinion. one has helped organize workers at VW plants, another is a lawyer who has put questions to Mr. Trump, and and the third is a journalist who has covered the strike and advised the UAW. These strategies presented the facts that labor was suffering low wages during a cost of living crisis. Today about 146,000 workers in the US are covered by UAW out of one million employed in automobile plants, a small fraction.

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Kamala Harris support could exceed the 92% won by Biden in 2020 in Detroit. Harris could also exceed the 45% support in Macomb County for Biden in 2020, as Whitmer support was 52% in 2022 Governor's election. Macomb is a county with mostly white voters and union voters.  Union vote is split with concerns about EV's helping Trump, and standing on the picket line in a UAW strike helping Biden. Harris is also doing much better with younger voters who feel energized by Harris. Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer did well even with voters in western Michigan towns like Grand Rapids in 2022.

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There were 2.5 million encounters at the US Border in Trump's first term says the BBC, under Biden's first term this number quadrupled to 10 million. Had the Biden administration done what it did for China policy and tariffs, quietly leaving them in place and tried sincerely to listen and work with Republicans, replaced Mayorkas in 2021 June when the migrant numbers reached 200,000 far surpassing the 150,000 high under DJT, and negotiated a new law by the end of 2021, this would have stopped asylum, added resources and closed the border in a timely delivery of needed action.

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Ron de Santis now realizes the errors made in trying to base a campaign on out-Trumping Trump. It is 2023 and it is a different country. Lessons were learned, both Democrats and Republicans are a different breed these days, and have more in common than is realized. The shaking up and open discourse part was the easy part, the hard part of building America is what is taking place today, and requires a different disposition and frame of mind.