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S. Africa's slow progress in getting opportunites for black farmers and President Zuma's efforts to jump start this with a mentorship program. The program benefits S. Africa and white farmers as fewer young people want to stay on the land and farm. About 80% of farmland is white controlled, yet the number of white commercial farmers is declining rapidly, from 60,000 in 1994 to 37,000 in 2012, according to Theo de Jager, deputy president of Agri SA, a commercial farmer association. Jager says a new generaion of farmers from the black community has to fill the gap left by fewer white farmers. One of the problems is the high cost of the program and seed money for new black farmers. Since 2009 the government spent $122 million a year to support only about 1 in 10 farmers on redistributed land. The government has spent $730 million to buy white owned farmland since 1994. New farmers receive about $500,000 for equipment, seed and livestock. A mentor gets $600 per month.

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Trevor Manuel, as head of the national planning commission, may have even more authority -as he oversees all economic policy on behalf of the President- than in his previous position as finance minister of South Africa. President Zuma knows that he is not a person fond of policy details and long reports, and he may be wisely creating this position in the President's office so that he could delegate this important work to Trevor Manuel. The head of the tax department, Mr Gordhan, becomes finance minister. Asked what his priorities would be, Zuma in his characterstic manner joked , " My rooibos tea, honey and lemon."

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This analysis of coal use using graphs shows a clear move away from coal in the world, except for two growth markets China and India which account for 60% of the increase in coal use since 2008. India has gone black in its shift to increasing use of coal. China has begun the shift away from coal to address the smog over large urban areas, poor air quality and health impact of coal use. Because China used five times the coal used by India in 2017, the overall impact in China and India is showing a shift away from coal to hydropower, other renewables including solar energy. It is likely that India will make the shift following China's example in the future. 

The trend is clear when one looks at the incremental terawatt hour and where it comes from. The shift is clear to renewables, hydropower, and non fossil uses in the rest of the World and China which account for most of the coal use in the world.

 

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Oil importing countries in East Africa will benefit from lower oil import bills. Measured as a percentage of GDP the oil imports will go down from 6.3% to 3.7% of GDP for Tanzania, from 6.2% to 3.7% for Mozambique, from 6.0% to 3.6% for Kenya and from 4.8% to 2.8% for South Africa. For the oil exporting countries for revenue decline as a percentage of GDP, Ghana goes from 2.7% to 1.6%, Nigeria from 15.7% to 9.3%, and Angola from 56% to 33%. About 80% of Nigeria's budget comes from oil revenues which will result in spending cuts. About 14% of GDP in Nigeria is dependent on the oil sector, because of the growth in retail and telecommunications. Nigeria's finance minister estimates the decline in GDP growth by 1% to 5.3% for 2015. Benefits from lower oil prices are offset by decline in the price of iron ore and other commodity exports for South Africa, and from the decline in the South African currency, the Rand. Drop in the value of iron ore exports affects other parts of West Africa such as Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Projects for large investments by large oil companies in Uganda and Angola may be delayed as oil prices decline. ...

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The dangers of a population explosion in Nigeria, as infrastructure is woefully falling behind and creating failing living conditions.

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It may come as a bit of a shock to learn, that the entire country of Nigeria produces about as much electricity at electricity generating facilities, as the electricity used around Japan's Narita airport. Most people in this country of 150 million people, get electricity only for a few hours a day. As a result two thirds of all electricity consumed in Nigeria is produced using small scale generators. President Jonathan's plan to raise $3.5 billion to increase electricity supply 13 fold. Since the 1990's the capacity increased by half, but distribution is extremely poor, so that the actual supply has remained flat. One result is a very small manufacturing sector, of about 4% of GDP.

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The judicial system shows its independence from political parties in Ghana as it affirms the election of president John Mahama by 325,863 votes out of 11 million votes cast. Both political parties accept the court's verdict after 6 months of daily televised hearings. This is seen as a victory for the maturing process of democracy in Ghana.

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H-P CEO Apotheker says that to be successful in the business of consumer devices like the PC it would have to invest a lot of capital that could be better invested elsewhere. This capital invested in a low margin business such as PC's coud be freed up to generate the size of capital H-P will need to compete in software and services with companies such as Oracle and IBM. As part of this makeover of H-P the company will take a $1 billion restructuring charge to shut down the tablet and smartphone operations. H-P invested $1.2 billion for the Palm acquisition in 2010 to acquire an operating system for those devices. Apotheker expressed disappointment with the sales of the tablet devices and smartphones. This decision happens 10 years after the decision by H-P to acquire Compaq Computer Corporation for $25 billion. In 2008 H-P acquired Electronic Data Systems for $13.9 billion. With the new strategy Apotheker is focussing on software. Apotheker brings experience in software as CEO of SAP Inc in his previous position and understands the software business. The agreement for the acquisition of U.K. software firm Autonomy for $10.3 billion this week is part of the makeover of H-P under Apotheker....

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H-P CEO Leo Apotheker defends H-P's plan to spin off its PC unit. He says it wasn't possible for H-P to invest enough in the business to be competitive and make the necessary structural changes needed in other parts of H-P's business. The new product development cycles are much faster than what a congomerate like H-P could accomplish in areas such as the tablet PC, as consumers are looking for a stream of new product devices. H-P's PC unit generated $40.1 billion in revenues and $2 billion in operating profit in the recent fiscal year. Analysts say H-P has overpaid for Autonomy, leaving less money available for additional strategic moves. Apotheker defended that decision saying the Autonomy acquisition makes it possible for H-P to skip a generation of technology as it enables businesses to make sense of unstructured data.

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Pravin ordhan who won confidence as head of the tax authority takes over Trevor Manuel's post of Finance Ministera, and Trevor is kept in an important position in strategic planning. THe communist party and unions get the Education and Economic Development ministries, but otherwise Zuma indicates a preference for continuity in South African financial and economic affairs. With one third of potential workers are without jobs according to the government so there is considerable pressure for improving these measures of development.

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President Zuma creates a new cabinet post as coordinator of government strategy, for former finance minister, Trevor Manuel. This helps him keep the confidence of markets in South Africa.

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A look at the graph showing inflation adjusted GDP growth in the South African apartheid years of 1980-1994, show GDP declines in 6 of the 14 years, with 3 years of decline in the last 5 years of apartheid rule. Which shows that the economy was suffering from a combination of world sanctions and the war with the African National Congress to defend apartheid. In 1996 an agreement was reached with the ANC to transfer power and end apartheid in South Africa. Some of the pressures against apartheid came from the business community's perceived interest in maintaining growth. This has been borne out by the graph showing the inflation adjusted growth in the years of ANC rule starting in 1995, which show a striking difference with growth between 4-6% for 1995-2008, high growth rates for 13 of 14 years, and slight decline in only one year 1998. This bears out the policy of business and a democratically elected government with respect for minority rights, and black-white-colored and tribal loyalties being reconciled to goals of economic growth and democracy. For two years Nelson Mandela head of the ANC maintained continuity in economic policies by retaining the white finance minister from the previous apartheid government. In 1996 Trevor Manuel who had little economic experience- who worked as an activist to organize protests against high bus fares and rents under apartheid governments- was made finance minister. He has been finance minister now for 13 years, and only resigned when President Mbeki resigned after losing the leadership election of the ANC. In the early years he controlled government spending to pay off South Africa's tremendous debt. He brought down inflation and built up foreign reserves. After the election of Jacob Zuma, another ANC veteran, supported by young black people, in September 2008, and his likely win in the current election, it appears that Zuma will retain Trevor Manuel. This ensures continuity in the face of the global recession, especially hitting commodity producers like South Africa. South Africa compares favorably with Nigeria in economic growth and modernization, spread of mobile phones, computers, literacy rates, but suffers from high unemployment, and low life expectancy. Pressures are increasing to do more for unemployment, address the crumbling infrastructure, and provide more help to the poor. Zuma has the support of the unions known as Cosatu and the Communist party, and of young blacks, in a country where one third of the population is under 15 years of age and over 40% of the population has mobile phones. South Africa has the largest economy in South Africa, is larger in land mass than Nigeria, has about 45 million people - a third of the population of Nigeria with 127 million population which has fertility rate of 5.6 twice that of South Africa- and GDP of 213 billion compared to $72 billion for Nigeria. Literacy rates are 82% for S. Africa and 68% for Nigeria, showing that higher literacy rates are lowering fertility rates and population growth. The figures are from the 2007 Economist pocketbook World in Figures. A strong press and media provides check on corruption which siphons away development funds in the public sector in commodity dependent countries like Nigeria. The private sector controls commodity exports of South Africa. So even with the relative lack neglect of the poor and unemployed in South Africa, and of health care, South Africa has done better overall than Nigeria. Average annual inflation was 5.1% in South Africa, compared to 15.7% in Nigeria, and this hits the poor the hardest. It goes to show that when it comes to modernization it helps to be inclusive, reconciliation oriented, and bring together all the resources of the country including a vigorous press and media, and business, regardless of color, race, creeds, faith, tribe or caste....

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Indonesia's GDP increased by 6.5% in 2011. Analysts estimate GDP growth of about 6% in 2012. Exports are stable at about 25-26% of GDP. Consumption is about 55-56% of GDP for 2010 and 2011. Foreign direct investment increased by 20% in 2011 and reached $20 billion for investments in coal mines- to tap Indonesia's natural resources and car and consumer product factories for Indonesia's 240 million people.