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Gerald Seib in the WSJ gives 3 reasons for reluctance of president Trump to get involved in wars in the region on behalf of the Saudis- the U.S. is less dependent on Saudi oil with its increased oil production, China, South Korea and Japan depend on Saudi oil making it necessary for these countries to pay for the conflicts not the U.S. Other reasons are the U.S and Mr. Trump's opposition to endless wars that lead to neglecting U.S. priorities such as infrastructure and building its economy.  If the wars cost trillions of dollars the U.S. expects the Saudis or Asian countries to pay the U.S. for the cost of these wars. Japan is the most dependent on Saudi oil and it is playing a constructive role to reduce tensions between Iran and the U.S. Mr. Macron of France is playing a role because the EUropean Union also imports oil and wants to prevent the Iran nuclear deal from being ditched or at least for it to be renegotiated.

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A warmer than expected winter and lower inflation is helping European stocks in Jan 2023, says this report in the WSJ. European indexes are also not weighed down by the decline in tech stocks as in the US. Germany's DAX and France's CAC have risen by 16% compared to 6.9% in the US for last 3 months.

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During a trip to Italy for a G-7 foreign ministers meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson makes a symbolic stop at a memorial in Lucca, where 560 men, women and children were massacred by the Nazis in World War II. Tillerson said at the memorial that "we rededicate ourselves to holding to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents anywhere in the world." Also present at the memorial were Frederica Mogherini, the European Union's chief of foreign policy, and Susanne Wasum-Rainer, German ambassador to Italy. British foreign secretary Boris Johnson said Europe supported the U.S. A meeting on Syria is being added to the G-7 meetings which includes the foreign ministers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, United Arab Emirates.

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China and Huawei lack the manufacturing capabilities needed to make some of the component parts that go into 5G systems. The U.S. Commerce Department in May restricted chip makers globally who use U.S. technology from supplying semiconductors to Huawei. This means Taiwan's Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company which uses U.S. technology in manufacturing 5G component parts cannot supply Huawei.

This gives the U.S. and Japan, South Korea to catch up with initiatives of their own to match China's state subsidies model that finances its semiconductor companies and 5G companies. 

U.S. Undersecretary of State Keith Krach says "We've utilized the strengths of semiconductor equipment companies and electronic design software companies to eliminate Huawei's access to the necessary sophisticated chips to build 5G systems and their most sophisticated smartphones." Huawei he says is a security threat to the U.S.

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President Trump's willingness to use U.S. economic strength through tariffs, sanctions and other methods comes from the view that in the decade of the 1990s and 2000s U.S. worker and the U.S. was suckered by others. In this situation it was seen as acceptable to use U.S. tariffs and economic pressure to fix a global trading system and a China trade surplus with the U.S. exceeding $300 billion a year. Mr. Lighthizer it should be remembered, now the top trade negotiator with China was also the trade negotiator with Japan when it enjoyed a similar trade surplus with the U.S. during the Reagan administration. Economic pressure did not have to be ratcheted up to this level with Japan at the time. Japan was an ally at the time in the Cold War, Today China is seen as both a global competitor in world affairs and a technological competitor. Unlike the situation with Japan many Republican and Democratic administrations had failed to tackle the growing trade imbalance with China till it had become unsustainable. The views of Mr. Trump on trade were views articulated by Mr. Lighthizer for the last ten years resulting in a shift in opinion on trade in the U.S. by 2016 where a majority of people in the U.S. felt that globalization and world trade was working against American workers and industry. Mr. Trump as a Republican was both responding to the failure of others to tackle trade issues hurting the U.S. worker and business, as well as rallying support from workers, farmers and business to his party.   ...

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The surge in the value of the dollar is creating turmoil in the world economy. The dollar reached 1.04 to the euro and 118 Japanese yen by Dec. 15, 2016. This means Japanese and European exports will be more competitive and lower U.S corporate earnings.  Emerging market economies hold about $200 billion in dollar denominated debt and this will become harder to repay with the surge in the value of the dollar. China faces larger capital outflows and the Bank of Japan has to navigate a new situation. Some countries such as Mexico are raising interest rates to reduce inflation as the value of the peso drops. The prospect of trade wars is also another aspect of uncertainty with the new Trump administration in the U.S.

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US unemployment at 4.6% in November 2025.

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The U.S. faces a critical gap in its coronavirus effort - the lack of one centralized source of reliable quality data. What we have today says this report in WSJ, are many disparate sources of information, without any uniform set of rules, different chronologies, and lacking consistency, all feeding into national or global databases run by individuals or private organizations that lack the resources needed. Not  the centralized government source for quality data that is being used in other countries. This is the second of articles in the WSJ on this problem. The first was on the John Hopkins database run by students and a professor lacking the funding or the resources for such a critical task, dependent on disparate and multiple sources of information without any set of rules. Other sources at the University of Washington or run by private institutions face similar problems. The data coming out of these databases is only as good as the data going in, say experts. As a substitute for quality data from a centralized U.S. government source these sources cannot give the decision makers in states the confidence they need, and the federal public health decision makers the confidence they need in their decisions for reopening in stages, says this report in the WSJ. ...

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One example of how the appearance of divisiveness in the media may be misleading is how all sides are coming together on the toughest problems. On housing supply a genuine change has happened. The 21st Century Road to Housing Act biggest bipartisan legislation before the midterm elections is passed in Congress. The most comprehensive and consequential housing legislation in a century as the president DJT calls it, passes both Houses of US Congress by big majorities, in the House by 358 to 32 and in the Senate by 85 to 5. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Tim Scott from both parties worked together to get it done. It addresses both rural and urban needs for small towns and large cities, creates more funding, cuts approval time, and provides incentives for builders. It also limnits institutional investors in how much of housing they control as this worsened the supply of housing and housing prices in recent years. The extent of the housing supply crisis can be seen by the 54% climb in housing prices since 2020, costing 5 times the median income far above historical standards, according Harvard Center for Housing Studies. ...

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China's strategy appears to be to allow the transfer of TikTok ownership to an American consortium and focus it's efforts on renegotiating the 30% tariff on China and China's response of 10% on the US. China is making an effort to protect industries in China that have surplus production. China wants DJT to meet Xi for a Summit in Beijing instead of South Korea as the US has suggested. And Xi  offers to make a visit to Washington DC to improve relations. Scott Bessent and the USTR Greer in negotiations  with the Chinese trade negotiator Vice Premier of Economic Policy, He Lifeng, in Madrid, have come up with an agreement. The US COngress has passed legislation requiring the sale of TikTok to US owners because of sensitive information issues. China now reversed its policy in April when it opposed this as it now sees little advantage in that policy and can concentrate on better trade terms from DJT. A stumbling block is the flow of fentanyl for which DJT imposed 20% of the 30% tariff on China, the other 10% being standard for all countries. ...

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California, New York and Washington are  three states, with 30 other cities in the U.S., and 100 large businesses, forming the U.S. Climate Alliance, saying they will  follow the Paris agreement on climate change. Former Mayor Bloomberg of New York City is organizing the effort, and he says in the U.S. it is cities, states and businesses that actually do the work of reducing emissions, not the federal government. Bloomberg said: "The fact of the matter is Americans don't need Washington to meet our Paris commitment." Governor Jerry Brown of California says the response will be for California and other states to set even bolder standards for reducing emissions.

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U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2020 was 7.4%. This is a record and the closest to this was the economic growth in 1950 which was 3.9% a little over half of that. This is the equivalent of 33% on an annualized basis.

The economy is about 3.5% smaller than when the pandemic started. This record is better than the one in 2008 financial crisis when over a period of one and half years the economy declined by about 4%. By 2021 the U.S. economy will have recovered to where it was back to its original shape if recovery proceeds at this rate.

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Huawei is ready with a new operating system to replace Android following sanctions placed by the U.S. on use of American technology. The new operating system is called HarmonyOS. Huawei says it can switch to this in "just one or two days." 

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U.S. household net worth has surged a Fed quarterly report shows. But the winners are not the same people who lost out in the Great Recession. Home prices in Las Vegas, Pheonix and Miami are still well below - over 25%- than when they were at their peak before the recession, according to Case-Shiller price index. It is in cities such as San Francisco, Dallas, Denver and Charlotte that prices have surged. As for stock investments this is concentrated among the higher income and wealthier households. Core Logic shows the number of people underwater of 12 million at the peak, and this has declined to 3 million. Overall the trend is positive when combined with the Census report showing strong gain of median income of 5.2% in 2015, and shows Obama policies working in the right direction. Though it has taken time, still leaves many people behind in parts of the country, and for demographic groups such as older people who lost jobs in the recession.

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Fearing instability within their own kingdom Saudis take a cautious view of the protests in Iran. UAE take a different view and supports the US. 

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The U.S. trade deficit with China was declining till the coronavirus hit in February. Now it is back on the way up, a warning signal for the Trump administration as it seeks to stop sending American wealth out of the country in an utterly disproportionate way of $346 billion in just 2019 after taking action on tariffs and renegotiating trade agreements.  Imports grew 11% in July to $231 billion. While exports increased but not as much by 8.1% to $168 billion in July, still well below February/s $209 billion. That leaves a trade gap of $63 billion. This is the largest trade deficit since July 2008. The U.S. trade deficit is a major issue and is watched carefully as the Trump administration sets a goal of rebalancing world trade so that the U.S. no longer runs such large trade deficits with China, and Germany, and does not shift wealth overseas. The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2019 was $346 billion, with Japan and Germany it is much smaller close to $70 billion for each country. The Trump administration goal is to all out reduce this deficit through trade agreements and other actions that stop the current outflow of U.S. wealth overseas by $1 billion a day to just one country. For this it seek a level playing field which means other countries have to face tariffs if they unfairly subsidize their industries or violate labor rights for unfair competition, or in other ways seek to unfairly gain an advantage over the U.S. including through transfer of technologies from the U.S. ...

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U.S. daily coronavirus cases reach a high of 88,000 on October 29. About 46,000 people are hospitalized in the U.S. Increases in following states - Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota and Maine. About 1000 daily deaths are reported.

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The U.S. economy showed a rebound with the purchasing manager's index for August at 54.7 compared to 50.3 in July. Manufacturing output up to 53.6. Over 50 indicates expansion. Job gains slowed in July. Overall the U.S. economy is recovering but industrial production is still 8.2% less than a year ago level according to the Federal Reserve. Easing of lockdowns overseas help exports. For the eurozone the PMI index is at 51.6 in August from 54.9 in July, as the second wave of pandemic hits service sector there.

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The US oil embargo in 2022 is not a big decision for president Biden. The US only imports 3% of its oil and 1% of its coal from combatant nations in Europe's east. 70% of the oil from that region cannot find buyers because of sanctions risk says the WSJ. This WSJ view from the Editorial Board says Biden's policy of not boosting US fossil fuels production is contrary to what makes sense in the current situation of high oil prices. Seen from the point of view of US commitments at COP26 Glasgow and global warming effects on the planet, president Biden's commitment to boost renewable energy and use this as an opportunity to make the US less dependent on fossil fuels presents an alternate perspective. One that is needed looking beyond the situation that is faced in 2022.

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Very low interest rates are enabling buyers in the U.S. to renew buying cars and homes. Higher income workers were hit less then the hardest hit low wage service sector workers in industries such as travel, restaurants. The better economy now depends on the surge in coronavirus and expansion of unemployment benefits that expire in July. Retail sales of new autos were just below pre-virus forecasts in week ending July 5, says J.D. Power. Interest rates are as low as 0.9%. New home sales including higher end buyer homes are doing well as many workers with higher incomes are able to work remotely from home providing more job security and confidence in buying.

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The U.S. China trade and tech rivalry continues with the arrest in Canada of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou on U.S. request for extradition. The reason appears to be a violation of U.S. sanctions against Iran. President Xi has taken steps in the past to protect Huawei, as a top priority, scuttling Qualcomm's acquisition of NXP Semiconductors NV. The merger with the Dutch Company would have threatened Huawei in its race to dominate 5G networks.

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US Mass recall of 30 Ambassadors in December 2025 at time of 85 Ambassador vacancies. With a new administration comes new policies and new embassy postings to carry out the new foreign policy.

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Indonesia is a country with a long history of Hindu and Buddhist culture before conversion to Islam through traders from Malaysia and Sufi saints in the sixteenth and seventeenth century. Hanuman and other deities from India are also part of the existing culture and traditions. Communist influence has been alien to this culture and tradition as in India. It was part of the Dutch empire in the east and a source of European trade in spices from the seventeenth century. It is also a extensive island chain of Java, Sumatra and other islands with a population of 280 million very closely linked to India culturally and with links to America since independence. Indonesia was given a great deal of importance during the Cold War with Robert Kennedy and other leaders visiting Indonesia during the period after Sukarno in the sixties. By 2000 the US engagement with China had evolved to the point that neglected India, Indonesia and the entire south east Asian region in a preference for links with China.  The British division of India led to the US links with India and Indonesia being shaped by that division and the Cold War with Russia. The confusion of the struggle against colonial rule of the British and Dutch led to leaders such as Nehru and Sukarno who compounded the difficulties of the Cold War and perpetuated with it the old British idea of a divided South Asia on a religious basis that had supported British rule and set the conditions that made it possible for a small group of English civil servants to run the country. This led to the Indian and Indonesian relationship with the US being stifled as the US struggled to rid itself of the British obsession with a divided India. Culturally India and Indonesia are part of an extended region in Asia with development aspirations and a youthful population that aspires to better infrastructure, better education, healthcare and ease of living, and the better opportunities in life. This is what migration did for Europeans who left for America for a new life on the east coast and on the prairies of America. It has little to do with the obsessions of the British and the Dutch that divided the region between the Indus and the Ganges and divided the Indonesian islands. That phase is now coming to an end as China reverts to its Communist period leadership under a new generation led by Mr. Jinping, a son of one of the veterans of the Communist Revolution of 1949. The US has to evolve its relations with India, Indonesia, Vietnam and other countries into new ties of trade, culture and technological exchange. This is needed as it winds down its close trade relations with China in its supply chain to rebuild a new supply chain after the trade wars and the pandemic revealed the deep flaws of that supply chain. What is needed is not the efforts of one changing adminstration after another, but an effort started by president Biden that will last through different administrations as the US engages with Asia in the way that it engaged with Europe after FDR and Truman for most of the twentieth century. And one that rids itself of the obsessions of divided regions from the colonial period of the Dutch and the British. The1.6 billion people in India and Indonesia share a  common aspiration of being a major part of the Free World with America. ...

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The French under Macron commit to build a new aircraft carrier to come into service in 2038. This will be nuclear powered like the Charles De Gaulle, France's current aircraft carrier. U.S. carriers are also nuclear powered to reduce port stops for fuel. 

French and U.S. ships use American suppliers for some of the flight systems on carriers so that French aircraft and American aircraft can operate off of each others ships. For France it preserves "strategic autonomy" a policy France has pursued since Mr. De Gaulle. It also means tighter U.S. French cooperation with France being America's key ally in Europe. France has plans to increase defense spending by 4.5% and spends over 2% of GDP on defense like the U.S. 

India, Britain, China and Russia are the only other countries with aircraft carriers.