LyrArc Article Gist
Jay Powell signals that protecting working families from inflation even as he attacks inflation and strong labor market to moderate wage increases that could hurt jobs is a difficult balancing act that he wants to get right. Here are his own words at the Brookings Institution- "My colleagues and I do not want to overtighten because... cutting rates is not what we want to do too soon. That's why we're slowing down and going to try to find out way to what that right level is." He said he did not rely on forecasting that could be inaccurate and is feeling his way through this. It showed - the remarkable humility of this central bank governor unlike any of the last five decades, and he was warmly received by Brookings. He is keenly aware that the pandemic has hurt labour market participation as many have retired and some are still struggling to join the labor market, and there are other working families in the labor market who are being hurt by inflation.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Republicans have supported less regulation. After the 2009 financial crisis with faulty mortgages and excessive leveraging one would expect that there would be a shift among Republicans favoring necessary regulation of banks. This did not happen after the Obama administration failed to articulate a new culture after 2009 and lost control of Congress in 2010 by as much as 64 seats in the House 6 in the Senate, and in all demographic and income groups. The result was that the 2009 crisis changed some laws but not the culture of laissez faire that less regulation was better for the economy. It is left to president Biden to tackle this problem of culture and the Silicon Valley Bank clearly shows that the parts of the Republican and Democratic parties that support less regulation even where the regulation is essential for a good economy for workers and families, are self serving. No where is this culture of laissez fairre in its other manifestation in not planning for the US manufacturing base to be strengthened by government action more evident than in the way it has prevailed to turn a blind eye to not just sending manufacturing overseas, but over concentrating it in one country China with additional supply base from Japan into China. This is the challenge that the country faces- only if the culture or mindset changes will laws have the needed impact.  This report in the NYT shows that when president Trump appointed Randall Quarles to vice chair of banking supervision in 2017, Congressmen both Republicans and Democrats believed that less supervision was better for the economy. Democrats such as Congressmen Barney Frank were themselves part of the new culture when Frank joined Signature Bank's board in 2015, one of the banks that along with SVB bank caused the banking crisis of 2023. Its association with risky crypto assets is considered by the WSJ as being one reason the government decided to close it. Frank did not see this aspect of its risk insisting that the bank was in sound condition.  This culture is also manifested in its approach to the cost of living crisis and support for workers and families. The Biden administration sees the problem of culture and of clearly making the changes that create a new culture, and a new understanding of what is right for America, for its economy and for its role in the world, and best for its people.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Hilsenrath gives an account of how U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke convinced his fellow governors to support QE III and achieved a rare consensus.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Federal Reserve dropped the rate of growth of the U.S. economy from 2.3% to 2.1% in 2019. With slowing growth the Federal Reserve plans no interest rate increases in 2019. Sentiment on the Federal Open Market Committee is for one rate increase in 2020 and none in 2021. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates five times in five consecutive quarters to the current range of 2.25% -2.5%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman sees Japanese style deflation as a plausible threat in 2011. He says that there is a very real possibility that the US would be seeing deflation in 2011.

LyrArc Article Gist
The country's past was a factor in the new prime minister of Thuringia, a state in Germany, resigning after a flawed election in which the FDP's head with barely 5% election support was made prime minister. This happened with support from right wing parties including odd combination of local CDU and AfD parties. Merkel on a visit to South Africa called for this to be reversed. The Die Linke Left party from post war East German roots was the leading party with 31% of the electoral vote, CDU at 22% and AfD at 23%, SPD at 8% and Greens at 5%. Because Die Linke has roots in East Germany's communist party CDU as centre right party had competed with Die Linke in the election.

The Left and the SPD had 40% of the vote and with the Greens and CDU in the centre had about 70% of the votes in Thuringia, making Merkel at the head of a CDU-SPD coalition keen to reverse the result of a FDP premier with 5%-23% support.

LyrArc Article Gist
Speaking at the Economc Club of Indiana, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke, says responsibility for fiscal policy lies fully on Congress and the administration. Monetary easing through QE I,II and III, which reduces the borrowing costs of the U.S. government by keeping interest rates low, cannot be seen as taking pressure off Congress and the administration, as critics claim. He countered criticism by saying: "Suppose notwithstanding our legal mandate, the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates for the purpose of making it more expensive for the government to borrow. Such an action would substantially increase the deficit, not only because of higher interest rates, but also because the weaker recovery that would result from premature monetary tightening would further widen the gap between spening and revenues." Lawmakers would be no more inclined to come up with a program to reduce the deficit in this situation argues Bernanke. This statement of Bernake only reaffirms that low interest rates are an important goal here in the U.S.,- just as they are for France and other countries in Europe that are faced with tackling large debt and deficits- and are part of the overall solution for the government to manage its finances....

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany's investment in defense and infrastructure will see major increases under Merz/Kingsbiel CDU/SPD coalition government, borrowing in 2029 are 4 time levels in 2024 to finance a massive wave of investment. These investments were held off under Merkels government of the CDU from 2005 to 2021 and under the four year term of SPD's Scholz. A lot of damage is done by such disinvestment in the German economy from childcare and housing to transportation and internet infrastructure, to defense. It was part of the program of the Greens and Social Democrats under Scholz's government 2021-2024 but was stalled by finance minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats who was not fired until 2024 and who lost his seat and the FDP's presence in parliament in the 2025 elections for his role. Lindner's support of the constitutional debt brake set up by Merkel is seen as depriving Germany of the modernization of its infrastructure and the economy.  Germany's defense budget is set to more than double by 2029, increasing to €152.8 billion ($177 billion). Net borrowing will  significantly increase in the draft budget.  €81.8 billion in 2025, up from €33.3 billion in 2024. €89.3 billion in 2026, €87.5 billion in 2027, €115.7 billion in 2028 and €126.1 billion in 2029 or 4 times the level of 2024. The principal achievement in 2025 by Merz was to remove the constitutional debt brake of Merkel/Lindner and make modernization of infrastructure and defense a top priority of the Merz/Kingbeil CDU/SPD government. ...