LyrArc Article Gist
Pierre Poilievre gained prominence when he supported the Canadian truckers strike in 2022.  That year he was elected leader of the of the Conservatives party of Canada. In March 2022 the Conservative party crossed the Liberals with popularity at 32%. The NDP coalition ally of the Liberals was at 17%. Starting March 2024 the Liberals took a huge slide in the polls to 25% with Conservatives gaining to reach 42%.  The issues about cost of living, the Border and transgender culture issues resonate in Canada in the same way that they do with Americans. Voters say they can't afford gas at the pump and groceries. Pierre Poilevre has emerged as a leader of Conservatives at a point when for the first time since the 1980's it has a 20% point margin over the Liberals and Trudeau. There is also the issue of who will be best at negotiating on the tariffs issue with the DJT administration in the US. DJT does not take Trudeau seriously calling Canada the 51st state. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ calls it a chaotic runup while conceding that the stated purpose was clearly to stop fentanyl and migrants coming across the US land Borders with Canada and Mexico. In reality its purpose is clear and it is the recalcitrant positions of Canada and Mexico and the failure of previous administrations since Clinton-Bush-Obama to act forcefully in the face of such an attitude that was the problem. Of what amounts to indifference from Canada and Mexico to fentanyl flows  and the destroying of America, that made it imperative for America to use all the powers at its disposal to get action to stop fentanyl and migrants.  These powers at America's disposal include economic power tariffs being one, and other powers as necessary, as no nation can long endure such indifferent attitudes to harm done against another for long. It is a lesson for America that what TR called carrying a big stick can be a problem when there is the complete opposite taking place.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Greg Ip points out in this WSJ analysis that the new NAFTA after negotiations and warnings from Mr. Trump to scrap NAFTA, is not very different from the old NAFTA. Mexico made concessions on auto exports and labor rights, wages. Canada made concessions for the dairy industry. Yet the combined influence of business interests, Canada's lobbying in U.S. Congress and state governments, and the restraint shown by Trump's own advisers prevailed in limiting Mr. Trump's tendencies to go for a "America first" agenda. It shows, says Ip, that there is resilience in the existing order.  It also shows what future trade negotiations with the European Union and Japan over steel and autos could look like. President Trump will continue to face resistance within from his advisers and from exporters, business, Congress, on following an exclusively "America First" agenda. President Trump will need to extol NAFTA in its current version the USMCA, U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, to get it through the U.S. Congress in 2019.   Mexico's main concessions on autos were to agree to potential tariffs if exports exceed 2.6 million vehicles.  This keeps Mexico's status as a major auto export hub intact. Auto experts say VW and Mazda may simply pay the tariff of 2.5% for lower priced models assembled in Mexico that do not qualify for duty free entry instead of shifting production to the U.S. Current shipments from Mexico are not affected as U.S. demand is weak. Labor rights and higher wages in Mexico's auto industry are a win-win for Mexico and the U.S.. They are supported by the socialist administration of newly elected Mexican president Obrador. Canada's main concession was to expand U.S. access to Canada's protected dairy industry, with Canada already prepared to make the concession. Mr. Trump had also to consider the possibility that excluding Canada from the USMCA would have not passed Congress, and face even more resistance in a Democratic controlled Congress after 2019 elections.  The support Canada has received in Congress does not extend to China, which gets much less support in Congress, leading to higher uncertainty in the negotiations with China and possibly different outcome with the size of the trade imbalance of $1 billion a day factored in.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Signs of a serious bubble in house prices in Canada. Home prices in February 2011 rose 8.8% from the year before, to 365,000 Canadian dollars. This is more than double the average home price of C$158,145 in 1999, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. A comparison with the U.S. shows home prices going up 58% between 1999 and 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors, and falling 18% after the subprime mortgage crisis. By contrast home prices in Canada went down in 2008-2009 during the global financial crisis but are now back up and surpassed the previous high. This suggests the Canadian real estate market is facing a serious bubble comparable to or exceeding the bubble in the U.S. Trends that have supported the market such as Chinese buyers in Vancouver and Toronto, depend largely on the strength of the high economic growth in China and overseas buyers. Other weaknesses- the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals pointed out in a study in January that of the 400,000 first time home buyers during 2010, about 50,000 would have high-debt service ratios if interest rates, now at between 2-4%, were to rise to 5%. The Canada economst at Capital Economics, David Madani, says he expects a correction of 25% in the next 3 years, as this boom unwinds. He points out that house prices are now 5.5 times disposable income per worker, compared to an historical average of 3.5....

LyrArc Article Gist
As the heat wave in Spain, in western Canada and in other parts of the world shows, the situation is not getting better. Climate change action needs a new urgency.

LyrArc Article Gist
Issues that have hampered the 170 passenger aircraft Airbus A220 which came out in 2016 a later version of the Boeing 737. Problems at Bombardier of Canada were seen early. 

LyrArc Article Gist
In reality the 25% tariffs are fentanyl tariffs to stop flow of fentanyl across borders of Mexico and Canada after a decade of inaction and 490,000 deaths in the US over 12 years.

LyrArc Article Gist
The bubble in Canada's real estate market reached its peak in 2011-2012. The average price of a home in Vancouver reached a high of C$815,252 in April 2011, before declining to C$721,958 in Sept. 2012, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, Average prices nationwide in Canada were at C$372,544. Prices are being pushed up by buyers from China. Canada is taking steps to restrain the bubble by changing immigration rules. The immigration minister temporarily froze the Federal Skilled Worker Program and the Immigrant Investor Program. Under the latter program citizenship was given in five years to qualified immigrants investing over C$800,000 in Canada. Other measures include cutting the mortgage amortization to 25 years from 30 years, and reducing the amount of home equity Canadians can borrow against from 85% to 80%. Home sales in Vancouver declined 33% in Sept 2012 over prior year and listings increased 14%. The moves are modest because real estate agents see it as a pause in the bidding wars that were taking place, and the market remains overinflated....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Trump administration sends an official notice to Congress that it intends to renegotiate the NAFTA treaty with Mexico and Canada. The new U.S. Trade Representative Mr. Lighthizer served as Deputy Trade Representative under president Reagan in 1983. He says the focus of the negotiation will to promote economic growth and jobs by making improvements to the treaty. The notice does not mention major modifications of the type that were hinted at by president Trump earlier. The leaders of Canada and Mexico had asked president Trump to renegotiate. Republicans in Congress and business in the U.S. favor improvements instead of the drastic changes. Mr. Lighthizer's approach is stated in his letter that said "NAFTA was negotiated 25 years ago, and while our economy and business has changed considerably in that period, NAFTA has not." New provisions will be needed said Lighthizer for intellectual property rights, state owned enterprises, labor and environmental areas, with effective enforcement.  Because of the rhetoric and language used in the election campaign, it is important to note that Lighthizer has in the past negotiated favorable terms for the U.S. steel industry to prevent dumping from overseas. His style is the opposite of the president. He has stated- "I am friendly when negotiating. I am not theatrical. The art of persuasion is knowing where the leverage is." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Any hopes that the U.S. would compromise on its position on trade issues were dampened after the G-7 Summit meetings in Canada. Europe and Canada are frustrated at their inability to move Mr. Trump on trade issues. Mr. Trump made jabs on trade, terrorism and immigration during 2 days of meetings. There is also uncertainty about the NAFTA though trade negotiations on NAFTA continue in Quebec. Trump says the negotiations were friendly and moving along until Mr. Trudeau made his own remarks about not being pushed around by its larger neighbor. On some issues there is not even an agreement on facts as president Trump says the U.S. has a trade deficit of $100 billion with Canada, Trudeau says the U.S. has a surplus. Trump says the high cost dairy industry is protected by Canada.

LyrArc Article Gist
A "Best Countries" ranking was announced in Davos forum by U.S. News and World Report and its editor-in-chief, Mortimer B. Zuckerman, in Jan. 2016. This is the first time this rating is being done. It gives top spots to countries based on surveys of 16,000 people, 8000 from informed elites of better educated people, the rest from the public. The rankings are in many categories including quality of life, cultural influence, heritage, entrepreneurship, citizenship, raising kids, green living. Canada takes the top spot for quality of life, followed by Sweden, Denmark, Australia and Netherlands. France takes top spot for cultural influence, Italy for heritage, Germany for entrepreneurship, and second spot for forward looking, Sweden takes top spot for citizenship, raising kids and green living. Japan takes the second spot for green living, Canada takes the fourth spot, with Germany in the third spot, the U.S. and the UK in the top ten for green living. India takes top spot for movers with its rising economy. The U.S. suffers because of its obesity levels in some groups. Overall Germany comes first, Canada second, UK third and U.S. fourth. Overall ratings included correlation with per capita GDP purchasing power parity level figures from the IMF....

LyrArc Article Gist
Following the pandemic and rebuilding of world supply chains Canada is rebuilding its relations with India as a way forward for greater economic engagement. This is accelerating during the G-20 meetings and set on a new framework.

LyrArc Article Gist
Both China and Taiwan have applied to join the 11 nation Transpacific Trade Agreement. Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Brunei, and Japan. Taiwan says if China is admitted this obviously affects its application.

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the WSJ argues against Trade Representative Lighthizer's move to increase the percentage of North American content in a vehicle so that it creates more jobs. Currently Nafta rules require 62.5% of a duty free vehicle be made in North America. Lighthizer wants to lower the content coming from Asia or Europe. This is not favored by Canada and Mexico and it makes Mexico less competitive than it is now.

LyrArc Article Gist
Timeline in NYT on DJT-Jamieson USTR  Tariffs to March 13, 2025. Reciprocal tariffs to go into effect April 2, 2025 on Mexico and Canada. Reciprocal tariffs are seen as based on fairness- "we charge them what they charge us."  Why is this action necessary?  Because Canada, Mexico, EU, South Korea, Japan, China gained unfair advantages due to the inaction of administrations dating back to Clinton, Bush, Obama which were never reversed. Other nations have no incentive to trade on the principle of fairness inducing the US to take action to open discussions on fair trade and on what the tariffs should be going forward from 2025. US Trade Representative Lighthizer under DJT first term was Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan when he negotiated fair trade with the Japanese in the 1980's who he says stalled and stalled till finally agreeing to real discussions. So this is nothing new China, Canada and Mexico have taken the place of Japan. In this second term of DJT Lighthizer's Deputy Trade Representative is now the US Trade Representative. This means the discussions are in the hands of seasoned American trade officials with a keen grasp of details supported by Scott Bessent at Treasury and Luttnick at Commerce Department. What it is NOT is an effort to coerce other nations by the US. Like Japan in the 1980's with Reagan and Lighthizer as USTR, in 2025 China, Canada, Mexico, South Korea Taiwan and other nations would like to slow this return to fair trade by stalling and stalling, and presenting a different picture of the facts. But will that work? As it did not with Japan in the 1980's when Lighthizer got them to sit down to have real discussions on fair trade. ...