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Mr. Lula Da Silva returns as president after 12 years after a closely contested win securing 51% of the vote.  It is a crucial time for saving the Amazon rain forest to tackle climate change, and for economic revival. About 33 million went hungry in Brazil in 2022 compared to 19 million in 2020 showing the difficulties Brazil faces. About 700,000 people died during the pandemic. The Worker's party pushed through a constitutional amendment last month to lift a spending cap so that about $28 billion in extra spending  can help alleviate these problems. 

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The oldest professional soccer player and goal scorer is Kazuyoshi Miura who signed for the 35th season in Japan. He signed a one year contract extension with Japanese soccer team Yokohama FC. He is 52 years old. He started playing for Brazil's Santos in 1982 at the age of 18. He played for Genoa in Italy and Zagreb in Croatia, and is with Yokohama FC since 2005. He says he still has the same passion for soccer that he had at the age of 18 when playing for Santos in Brazil.

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The winner in 2011 Japan had fallen behind since in women's soccer. The women's team win over Norway 3-1 puts Japan into the quarterfinals for the World Cup in 2023. Star teams from the US, Brazil and Germany did not make it to the quarterfinals. Sweden edged out the US in a penalty shootout. South Korea draw 1-1 with Germany put Germany out. Brazil lost to Japan. A new set of countries is emerging in women's soccer showing that preparation by other teams has made a serious difference.

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The Fed's interest rate policies to fight inflation have increased the return on US assets vs overseas emerging market countries such as Brazil and India. US Treasurys now offer 2% return after inflation. This means investors shy away from emerging markets as the extra yield offered by emerging market country bonds is diminishing. This reduces inflow of investment into countries from Turkey to Brazil. Higher rates also increase the value of the dollar vs other currencies including that of China and India, Brazil, Mexico. This means it is costlier for other countries to buy goods priced in dollars (India, Mexico)  or service dollar denominated debts (Argentina or Turkey). Where countries had raised rates to fight inflation this means central banks have less room to cut rates to stimulate their economies. This also happens as China's growth of 5% in 2023 as it has high debt and little room for stimulus measures, reduces any growth in countries in Latin America or Africa that export commodities from copper and iron to other materials. ...

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The northeastern region of Brazil, the poorest region of Brazil, has benefitted from the economic expansion in Brazil. The region's GDP went up by 4.2% a year for the last ten years compared to 3.6% for Brazil. Bolsa Familia, President Lula's anti-poverty programme has benefitted the northeast, but the Getulio Vargas research institute shows three quarters of growth coming from earnings and expansion of export based agriculture in soyabeans and other products and from mining export industries. Projects in the northeast include development of the port and industrial area around Suape. A petrochemical plant, a shipyard and a Petrobras refinery, are under construction. A new railway will link Suape to the interior. Much of the development is for export industries in soyabeans and iron ore, and for the rail and port infrastructure that supports these exports to China. As a result the development looks similiar to what is happening in Australia with the huge expansion in rail and port infrastructure in that country to support iron ore and other mining exports to China. Any slow down in China will affect Brazil as the IMF has recently warned, because of an overdependence on commodity exports to China. Alexandre Rands of local Datametrica consultancy points to this when he says that infrastructure booms while helpful are not enough to sustain development. Big firms train the workers they need which is how Brazilian companies cope with a weak educational system. Schools in the northeast are however not getting the financial support to improve education, a situation that affects Brazil as a whole, but is even more evident in the northeast....

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Last week the skies over Sao Paulo, the largest city in Brazil, in the lunch hour suddenly turned dark as smoke mixed with rain clouds appeared and turned day into night. It was the result of fires blazing in the Amazon- 43,000 fires set this year alone illegally. It could be ranchers clearing land for pasture or farmers clearing land for planting. Illegal logging has also increased since the severe recession in Brazil. 

The cash strapped government is also cutting the funding of the agency that controls illegal activiites in the Amazon leading to fires and illegal logging. Brazil's president is defiant amid world criticism of his lack of concern for what is happening in the Amazon.

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With over 35,000 deaths the deaths in Mexico from pandemic exceed that in Italy. Mexico now has about 300,000 cases. Brazil. Mexico and Colombia are hit hard.

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The death toll from coronavirus reaches 200,000 in Mexico, the third highest after the US and Brazil. Vaccine supplies are low in Europe affecting the vaccination drive. 

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Hit hard by the pandemic the people of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico are showing less vaccine hesitancy. This is enabling this region to catch up with the US in vaccinations. The difference is that people trust vaccinations. About two thirds of people in Chile and Uruguay are vaccinated. Supplies of vaccine are coming in from US, UK, Russia and China. Brazil is now doing 1.5 million vaccinations a day, compared to 750,000 in US daily. This report says that on a per capita basis taking into account the populations US is currently vaccinating at half the rate of Mexico and a third of the rate in Peru and Colombia, Argentina. With 8% of the population Latin America had one third the deaths making vaccination urgent and essential for this region. People are taking the threat of Delta variant seriously in the region. Astonishing as it may sound after all the publicity of deaths in Brazil this report in WSJ says 88% of people in Brazil want to get vaccinated, while 67% say this in the US, poll from Ipsos. Peru, Argentina, Mexico, Chile all top the US, says WSJ. ...

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A group of oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia stall progress on climate change goals at the conference in Belem, Brazil. Even deforestation goals are left out. A standoff between European nations and oil producing countries leads to lack of agreement on how to phase out fossil fuels. The US is not present.  

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The world depends on rare earths supplies for automobiles, mobile phones, and jet planes. The Washington Post says the US can take up the strategic vulnerability challenge presented by rare earth's supplies 80% control by China in 2026. The Washington Post looks at the US Rare Earths planning- US government as buyer, faster permitting and predictable rules needed to setup US supply chain by 2030. China's Rare earths monopoly can be loosened but not in 2 years says the Washington Post. It will take 5-7 years by 2030 or 2032. Countries such as the US, Canada, Australia, Malaysia and Brazil are resource rich places where rare earth can be mined by the US. for the US government and US companies. Australia's Lynas is the largest non-Chinese company It has a $96 million contract with the US War Departent. America's MP Materials is building domestic supply and is expanding production at Mountain Pass, California. MP Materials is building a rare earths magnet manufacturing plant in Northlake, Texas for $1.25 billion. MP Materials has a "transformational public-private partnership with the US War Department. As long as the US remains the buyer private companies can step up their development of rare earths around the world in the best locations. European Union and India have a separate plan for rare earths supplies of their own with large investments that should further diversify and create new supply chains for rare earths in Asia, Africa and Latin America. ...

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French colonial rule and suppression of independence protests at Setif, Algeria, 1945, which led to much of the Arab liberation writings that were to lead to 5 decades of wars in the region. Many of the coups in Iraq and Syria and in Egypt by military men were a result of this period of colonial rule in the Arab world in Iraq, Syria, and other Middle Eastern countries of the French and the British. The anti-colonial writings of this period had one bad aspect the fervor led to an uncritical acceptance of the idea that achieving political independence would be enough for better standards of living, education healthcare and infrastructure. Economic freedoms would require a very different approach from the political aspect. These wars destroyed much of the resources, wealth and human other potential in the Middle East leading to economic stagnation by 2026. Gulf kingdoms with small populations pursued grandiose schemes, with the rest of the Middle East stuck in poverty and lack of industrialization, lack of infrastructure development, sience and technological education, that happened in China and South Korea, and is happening now in India. Iraq and Syria, Lebanon are artificial states by the French and British colonial rulers out of the collapsed Arab part of the Ottoman Empire which with their mix of peoples from different Islamic sects are impossible to manage to this day, and the world (China, US, EU, India, Brazil, other nations) has other priorities of their own than getting sucked into these wars. ...

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Uruguay, Ghana and Germany exit. South Korea and Portugal advance after a 90th minute injury time goal by South Korea. Brazil loses to Cameroon but advances. World Cup soccer with surprises.

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Mexico reports 1092 deaths from coronavirus. Mexico has 101,000 cases and 11,729 deaths, a death rate of over 10% of cases. Brazil passes 600,000 cases only 4 days after passing 500,000.

Germany is implementing a 130 billion euro package to revive the economy. Measures include temporarily reducing VAT from 19% to 16%, giving 300 euro payment for each child. Incentives to buy new cars, and relief for municipalities with high debt are also included. This is on top of 1.1 trillion euro rescue package in March. To fund this effort Germany approved new borrowing and disregarded the deficit rules.

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Former Brazil president Lula da Silva is questioned by prosecutors on March 3, 2016 in the investigation into corrruption at Petrobras. Federal police detained Mr da Silva, and police with auditors searched offices of Mr. da Silva in Sao Paulo.

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World leaders at COP26 in Glasgow 2021 agree to pledge that they will end deforestation by 2030. This includes countries with large forest areas such as Russia, Brazil and Indonesia, and countries in Africa. Forests act like a carbon sink absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. About one third of global emissions are absorbed in this way.

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Of the $17 billion in writeoffs by Petrobras for overvalued assets and bribe payments, about $2.1 billion is for bribe payments. This is affecting public confidence in the government, and exposing the weak links between Petrobras and the government in Brazil.

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A waning boom and lower growth rates in Brazil, and improving economic prospects for Mexico- diverging emerging markets and policy mix in 2013.

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With only 8% of the world's population Latin America has a third of the world's murders. Cities such as Acapulco once a tourist resort in Mexico are now seeing 953 violent deaths out of a population of 800,000. Daily tally for Brazil, Mexico, Central America and other countries in Latin America is 400 murder deaths and yearly 145,000 dead. One in four happens in Brazil, Mexico, Columbia and Venezuela. Mexico 31,174, Brazil 63,808. In China according to the UN it was 8,634. For European Union 5,351.

 

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The Brazilian economy is growing too fast, and this pace not only won't be sustained, but it has signs of serious trouble ahead. The Brazilian economy grew at an estimated annualized pace of 10% in the last 6 months and generated 962,000 jobs between Jan-April of 2010. Growth in 2010 is expected to be 7%. The jump in growth is partly the result of the stimulus measures of the Lula government. But a consensus of experts is that Brazil still saves too little, has not invested enough in infrastructure,and its economy has the potential of 5% sustainable growth each year. The central bank has increased interest rates - increase of 0.75% in April 2010, and economists in Brazil think the rate will go up to 13% in 2011. About $10 billion in cuts in spending have been announced but they are cuts to an already growing budget approved by Congress, so in reality it will only slow the increase in spending. Public debt is at 42.7% of GDP. Real interest rates have fallen from close to 20% in 2003 to between 5-10%. Costs per unit of labor are increasing at about half the rate of real wages according to a finance official. The National Development Bank or BNDES played a role in helping the economy with subsidized loans when the financial markets ran into trouble. It has expanded lending by 50%, with money from the Treasury of 180 billion reais. Some of the measures of the Lula government has reduced the skewed income distribution Brazil, and in doing so has increased consumer demand. Meeting high consumer demand, and meeting the need for commodities like soyabeans and metals from China, has boosted growth in Brazil to twice the sustainable rate and it is now at a par with China and India. But this places Brazil too dependent on the boom in Chinese demand, especially as the stimulus in China slows and the property bubble threatens China's economy. See links to China. A new President after the upcoming Presidential election will have to tackle the high interest rates in 2011, lower commodity prices, and the need for better infrastructure, and make the adjustment to a sustainable pace of growth....

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On October 6, 2008 the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso plunged. Mexico had to spend 10% of its foreign reserves in a few hours to prop upthe peso. It started with some foreign investors selling latin american assets to cover losses at home. The peso's slide increased with theunwinding of derivative contracts of Mexican companies. For Brazil the fall in commodity prices led to weakening of the real and derivative contracts unwinding worsened things. Forecasters expected to see growth of 4.5% in Brazil and 3% in Mexico, now this will be lowered by 1.5%.