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Brexit negotiation guidelines from the EU rule out parallel talks on both Britian's future relationship with the EU and the separation agreement negotiations, preferring a phased approach. Only when the first phase of separation is complete or at an advanced stage would the second phase of future relationship with the EU be negotiated. The EU Council president, Donald Tusk, says the process would be long, complex and at times confrontational. Der Spiegel online writing on the negotiation describes the approach in a meeting with the lead German negotiator Mr. Oettinger, on the team of Michael Barnier who leads the negotiations for the EU- Oettinger focussed on what Britain owes the EU, estimated at over 60 billion euros. So far apart are the British and EU positions that Michael Barnier has no idea on the pathway for these negotiations, only awareness of the priorities such as the rights of EU and British citizens in each others region, says Der Spiegel. Looking at Theresa May speaking in parliament about her decision to move forward with Brexit in a letter to the EU invoking Article 50, one senses a mixture of confidence and nationalist appeal, far different from reality on the ground. The Leader of the Opposition cited government figures for a sharp decline in GDP as a result of Brexit, and the Scottish leader in parliament went so far as to say the government attitude in negotiations made "Scottish independence inevitable"- all headwinds Theresa May appears to be ignoring or treating with disdain. At this time the EU and the British prime minister appear to be talking over rather than to each other.   ...

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Britain's Labour party will now back a motion in parliament supported by the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Tories for a general election December 9 or December 12. This is the first December election since 1923, almost one hundred years. December elections in winter could have uncertain turnout, but the high turnout in the election in 1950 with Labour's Clement Attlee shows that when major issues are involved voters do turnout.

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India recorded 100,000 cases in one day on April 5, 2021. About half of these cases are in one state Maharashtra. Most of the cases are in about 6 states. Super spreader events such as cricket matches, weddings and social gatherings, political rallies with elections in states of Tamilnadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Holi festival, are increasing the rate of infection. People have become lax in wearing masks and following the safety protocol after cases dropped to less than 15,000 for the whole country in February. This report says variants also are playing apart. Google Mobility Reports have shown that movements around retail areas dropped to about 80% below regular levels in the middle of the national lockdown in spring of 2020, and have come back up to about 20% below normal levels. When the winter surge did not happen, and the vaccination drive started in January in India people became less vigilant, allowing infections to increase. The vaccination drive is accelerating and open to everyone over 45 years. About 80 million doses have been given and the target is still for 300 million doses by August.  ...

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The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and its leader Khairat Al Shater. Al Shater talks to the WSJ's Kaminski on his plans for Egypt and his demands for reinstatement of the elected parliament, the newly elected president of Egypt Mohammed Morsi taking that position, and the military backing off from its decree of unlimited powers over the president and parliament. He says he does not want a collision with the military and prefers to achieve the goals over three or four years, feels the military betrayed them, and admits to having too many disagreements with other pro-democracy groups in Egypt. His new emphasis is on a broad based effort and national accord to bring democracy and the rule of law in Egypt. Al Shater is a new breed of Muslim Brotherhood leaders in that he is a businessman having made money in furniture, software and other businesses, and at the same time a devout Muslim who spent years in Saudi Arabia. An interesting fact about the Muslim Brotherhood is that many of the leaders are academics, engineers and doctors or businesspersons, yet devout Muslims....

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Real tariffs are less than 12% of imports much lower than expected because of exemptions and tariffs announced and later dropped, CEO's have said that the impact of tariffs is much less than expected, and some say the worst is behind us. The administration of DJT and Treasury Secretary Bessent has shown much more flexibility and responded to the stock market declines in its tariffs posture. Bessent says the purpose of tariffs was not the revenues itself but getting other nations to play by the rules for fair play in world trade, rather than try to take the largest share of trade for their nations in the case of China, EU, Canada, Mexico and Japan which have all profited from unfair trade practices. The perception of tariffs is now changed.

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Speaker Johnson tells Politico that he plans to take up Ukraine aid in a separate bill. It would  be one Ukraine aid only bill or combined with Israel aid. He said it would happen using the House's suspension calendar. He sees it coming up on Ukraine aid on a stand alone basis. Suspension calendar requires a two thirds majority to pass bills and this means a large number of Democratic votes. Separating Israel and Ukraine aid is under consideration. The Freedom Caucus and some Republicans are not favoring bringing up the Ukraine aid bill. A government funding bill comes to the floor of Congress next week. Johnson says of the raucous Freedom Caucus that he has been always philosophically aligned with it with the same core principles as a lifelong movement conservative.The only difference is in tactics, and its never personal, Johnson says.

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Ten years after the severe banking crisis in Ireland that led to a collapsing economy and a lost decade, the curtain finally comes to a close on the actions of banking executives at Anglo Irish bank. 

David Drumm of Anglo Irish bank is sentenced to 6 years in jail for his role in the crisis. Lise Hand describes the total silence in the court as the sentence is handed out, accepting the severity of what had happened for Ireland and the Irish people affected by flashy money of banks, politicians as well as regulators who failed to live up to their duties to Ireland.

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Trump tax cuts were seen as helping people in the 95th to 99th percentile for most of the gains by the Tax Policy Center, with little benefit to lower income households. Penn Wharton Model shows for the bottom 60% of the taxpayers the after tax benefit is only 1.5% with much larger gains for wealthy households if they are renewed in 2025. Democrats and Biden who say no taxes will increase for people making over $400,000 a year may prefer to let the Trump tax cuts expire in 2025 and make targeted changes to bring fairness.

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It took 110 days to reach 100,000 cases in India. It took only 39 days to reach 500,000 cases. Medical experts say it is the increase in testing. It is also the speed with which this virus has spread and the reason it remains a great danger.

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The WSJ offers this profile of a son of German immigrants who accumulated timber lands in Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Pacific Northwest of the US. George Weyerhaeuser's company made the diapers for store brands across America. He says he was shocked at seeing the land when the timber was taken and the area cleared and started the practice of reforestation now a major goal set by COP26 in Glasgow.

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US 28 Point Peace Plan for the Russia- Ukraine war put out on November  20 2025 and the Ukrainian response. Ukraine and EU plans for counter proposals on some of the key points. Zelensky says Ukraine may have to choose between losing a partner and dignity in his message to the Ukrainian nation as the US takes a neutral stand in the war and pushes for a settlement which Ukraine and Europe see as "capitulation."

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As the period of transition between administrations is a period when no action can be taken on the stimulus plan and 533,0000 jobs were lost in November, with the uncertainties facing the auto industry and more unemplyment expected as that industry donwsizes, and consumers overstretched, the Fed takes aggresssive steps. It reduces the target interest rate, an overnight bank lending rate called the federal funds rate, to between zero and one quarter percentage point. And it added that theat the Fed's policy will be to keep interest rates "exceptionally low " for some time. The 3 month Treasury bill rate, another borrowing rate has gone down to zero.

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How did Steve Smith go from that Jofra Archer short ball bouncer to sitting out the next Test match for rest, and then go on to score 211 at Old Trafford on September 5, 2019. Australia were able to score 497 for eight wickets in the first innings. In the second innings he scored a needed fast 82 runs. Bouncing back quickly shows Steve Smith's character and courage. In his own words- "A bit of the past came up, if you know what I mean, from a few years ago. That was the first thing I thought about. The I thought "I'm actually OK here." I was a bit sad, but I was alright mentally the rest of that afternoon.  "No, I'm really not going to change anything. There is a  bit of talk that he has got the wood over me, but he has'nt got me out. He hit me on the head on a wicklet that was a bit up and down at Lord's. All the other bowlers have had more success with me, I dare say. I've faced them a bit more, but they've got me out a lot more, so yeah, pretty comfortable about that." About a heavier barrage of short balls and bouncers in the next match he thought "If you bowl it up there then you can't nick me off, or hit me on the pad, or hit the stumps," he shrugged. About the Dukes ball, its and interesting ploy, so we'll see what happens." Steve Smith went on to play like he always does moving about to take the ball in his own way, building up 600 runs in Test series three times, 671 in this Ashes series.     ...

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Just 18% of the US population will decide who is the next president of the US. In 2020 even with a lead of 7 million votes Biden could have lost the election without 45,000 votes in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Mrs. Clinton with 2.9 million vote lead lost the Electoral College without 80,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The US Electoral College is unique among western countries and is based on a concept that the passions of the "general mass" of the population should be moderated by giving more power to smaller states. The US president is elected not by a direct vote but by a vote cast by state and its electoral college, and the total electoral college votes determines who won and who lost. The focus is on swingable states of which there were 10 in 2020. 

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A new German envoy in Greece and efforts to mend strained relations.

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The checks and balances put inplace by the founders who designed the US Constitution with the two houses of parliament, the Supreme Court, the US Federal Reserve as central bank, and the state governments and large city governments, in a delicate system of balance. The entire house elected every 2 years and the presidency for 3+1 years 3 for governing and the 4th year of primaries and preparing for the next election are other forms of this checks and balances.

Jerome Powell at the Fed will be governor till Jan 2028 and Fed chair till May 2026. Powell plans to complete his term in office and preserve the Fed's independence as designed in the charter for the central bank.

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On October 30, Sheila Bair heading the FDIC, the main advocate for reducing foreclosures by reducing the mortgage payments is in discussions with Treasury officials for a plan whose details are still being worked out. A key part of it is for the government to assume half of the losses on home loans that are incurred if mortgage companies agree to lower monthly payments for at least 5 years. The cost to the government is about $50 billion that would come from the $700 billion bailout fund. Right now loan companies are reluctant to reduce monthly payments because homeowners might defaul again or the owners of mortgage securities might file law suits. The funds would go to shoulder half of any future losses on default. For example if under a loan modification program 40% redefault and losses on loans are 55%, and $500 billion in loans are modified under the program, the total losses government would bear are $55 billion. This scenario is possible in a deep and prolonged housing and economic slump. This would be a gradual program if mortgage companies or companies with home loans or servicers of loans have to decide if they want to take advantage of this program, and time is critical as the foreclosures are accelerating and thisputs downward pressure on prices....

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In a first Vietjet Air will connect Hyderabad, India to Da Nang, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam by November 2022. Direct flights will also be set up from Ahmedabad and Bengaluru to Vietnam.

This will build the connectivity for business and tourism as the new supply chain is set up by the US and EU in Asia with Vietnam and India.

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The Biden administration plans to build 20 miles of new border security wall in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas completing a section of the wall that is seeing extraordinarily high migrant crossing. The Biden administration is looking for ways to restrict flow of migrants that is taxing the resources of cities in the US. About 2 million crossings in each of the last 2 years, says the WSJ.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve's role as backup lender increased with the pandemic. The U.S. central bank lent half a trillion dollars to counterparts overseas representing most of the emergency lending at the time in 2020. It eased a dollar shortage globally, helped stop a market selloff, and continues to support global markets in 2020. The Fed is now the global source of dollar funding, which builds the role of the U.S. currency a the dominant currency. Countries that benefit from the Fed are Australia, Singapore, South Korea, Britain, Japan and European Union countries. On March 31 the Fed launched a program that let 170 central banks around the world borrow dollars against their holdings of U.S. Treasurys adding confidence.  To understand the dollar's dominant role about 88% of 6.6 trillion dollars in currency trades taking place daily involve dollars according to BIS. By end of 2019 U.S. dollar denominated debt securities and cross border loans reached about $27 trillion up from about $17 trillion in 2010. All the talk of having another reserve currency by other central banks has not happened. ...