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Arseniy Yatseniuk, resigns as prime minister of Ukraine in April 2016, as his popularity declines with falling living standards and corruption scandals. The new government is still from the old political elite. Prices have gone up by 50% in recent years and GDP has fallen in the three years of conflict with Russia.This article in the Economist magazine says young civil activists in Ukraine are working hard to set up institutions- sometimes parallel institutions such as the Reanimation Package of Reforms of 50 non-governmental civic organizations- that wil give Ukraine better governance after decades of corrupt governments. Online coverage on corruption is increasing creating an environment where the poor governance of the past is no longer the norm.The IMF which has a $17 billion loan package for Ukraine has ceased disbursements till Ukraine can take action against corruption and improve governance. The IMF insisted on the formation of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. As the U.S., EU, and NATO, come closer to Ukraine, during a period of tense relations with Russia, the quality of Ukrainian governance is an important issue for formerly Communist Eastern European countries and for the rest of Europe. It all depends on civic society and young people with new aspirations to change the way things are done....

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London's new Crossrail system adding 10% to existing rail capacity, about 200 million passengers a year.

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Tax cuts initiated by the Bush administration and to a smaller degree by the Obama administration account for $6.3 trillon of the $10 trillion deficit in 2011. This is about half the $12.7 trillion gap between the $2.3 trillion surplus predicted by the CBO a decade ago for the year 2011 and the current deficit of $10.4 trillon. Two wars and higher defense spending add another $2 trillion. The Stimulus added $700 billon. The Prescription Drug Benefit for seniors $272 billion. This is based on new analysis of CBO data by the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative. The record shows unrestrained spending by both parties has led to the current mess. Pete Domenici who chaired the Senate Budget Committee at the time of the first tax cuts in 2001 says "in the end the floodgates were opened." This also shows how quickly the situation can change if sound fiscal practices are abandoned. Two wars were financed entirely with borrowed money for the first time in U.S. history.

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President Trump's willingness to use U.S. economic strength through tariffs, sanctions and other methods comes from the view that in the decade of the 1990s and 2000s U.S. worker and the U.S. was suckered by others. In this situation it was seen as acceptable to use U.S. tariffs and economic pressure to fix a global trading system and a China trade surplus with the U.S. exceeding $300 billion a year. Mr. Lighthizer it should be remembered, now the top trade negotiator with China was also the trade negotiator with Japan when it enjoyed a similar trade surplus with the U.S. during the Reagan administration. Economic pressure did not have to be ratcheted up to this level with Japan at the time. Japan was an ally at the time in the Cold War, Today China is seen as both a global competitor in world affairs and a technological competitor. Unlike the situation with Japan many Republican and Democratic administrations had failed to tackle the growing trade imbalance with China till it had become unsustainable. The views of Mr. Trump on trade were views articulated by Mr. Lighthizer for the last ten years resulting in a shift in opinion on trade in the U.S. by 2016 where a majority of people in the U.S. felt that globalization and world trade was working against American workers and industry. Mr. Trump as a Republican was both responding to the failure of others to tackle trade issues hurting the U.S. worker and business, as well as rallying support from workers, farmers and business to his party.   ...

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Fruit and vegetable gardens one can harvest for free in the Rhine River Valley city of Andernach, a medieval city that is one of the oldest settlements in Germany. The city administration launched this project in 2010 to get more local people engaged in the outdoors in their community and raise awareness of how food is grown. The plants cover tomatoes to pomegranates. The mayor hopes other cities around the world will follow this example. The mayor Anneli Karlsson says one does not feel such a relationship to plants as when one goes out and picks out the food, the salad, that one is then going to use for dinner that evening. This is an idea that cities in Europe, the US and other parts of the world can take up in the middle of the current rise in food prices, so that the interest would lead to closer relationship with the food grown around us, and in even growing it oneself in one's own garden. In the first year 100 varieties of tomatoes were planted. Then other edible plants were added. It includes Greek mountain tea leaves as well as the usual pumpkins, potatoes, grapes zucchini, kale, almonds. No pesticides so it is all organic. There aren't any fences one just takes what one needs.  The gardens are good for tourism. They also hire unemployed people to add to the workers in addition to the team of gardeners. Rising food prices are getting people to take interest in how food is grown and urban area food gardens. ...

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The 2022 industrial trade fair in Hanover, Hanover Messe, is covered here in DW.com with 2500 exhibitors showing how they are responding to a changed world after the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support from China. Export oriented companies have to rethink their strategy says Thilo Brodtmann, the executive director of the German Engineering Federation, Supply chain disruptions and the pandemic have led to many German companies reexamining their reliance on Chinese suppliers. Human rights and democracy are now part of the reorienting of business in a new direction. The war in Ukraine is also having an impact. Reducing CO2 emissions is also a major part of the reexamination. Chancellor Scholz told the Hanover Fair at the opening ceremony -"We need to bring along with us emerging and developing countries, whose demographics and economic dynamics are turning them into new centers of power." Brodtmann says the solution is "to become independent and to have a completely different value chain." The head of the German Associaltion of Electrical and Electronics Industry Wolfgang Weber says "I'm quite sure that German companies are ready to invest in any of these countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa to diversify their supply chains." However such new markets are not very well represented at the Hanover Fair, so that policymakers and German business have a lot of work to do to open up new markets across the world in Asia, Latin America and Africa. India, Indonesia and Vietnam are considered to offer good prospects for diversifying Germany's supply chain and a lot of work needs to be done. ...

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Decades of investment in car manufacturing and EV's is paying off for China. It now exports 5.7 million cars of which 1.7 million are EV's. EV exports are twice that of Germany. Car production capacity in China surged as the Chinese market expanded to be larger than Europe and the US combined. The production capacity is twice the size of the domestic market- 40 million gasoline cars from 100 factories.  As domestic sales have slowed down there is a push for exporting this excess capacity. The US and the EU are imposing tariffs on Chinese cars to protect their domestic manufacturing. The push to become a leader dates back to premier Wen Jiabao 20003-2013. Wen chose Audi engineer Wan Gang as minister of science and technology, and gave him the task of making China the leader in electric vehicles. Manufacturers were given subsidies, tax breaks, cheap land and electricity. By one estimate the EV manufacturers and battery makers in China received $230 billion in subsidies since 2009.  This is one reason the EU and the US are imposing tariffs to protect their domestic manufacturers. As the shift to EV's continues in China- half of the cars in 2024 EV's- the gasoline models are shipped overseas. China has now replaced the western brands in Russia with it's gasoline models.  China makes great savings in batteries as it controls the supply chain in batteries. It makes EV's at 30% lower cost with these efficiencies. ...

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Pressed by tariffs from DJT China is trying to become technologically sufficient, yet this comes at a considerable cost, says this report in WSJ. Made in China 2025 was put out in 2014 when president Xi was beginning his plans for the Chinese economy. It is 2025 now and a look at the nation's investment plans show China putting $250 billion a year in advanced manufacturing sectors from automobiles to solar panels and AI, says Centre for Strategic and International Studies CSIS in Washington. This is giving China an edge but at the cost of using up valuable resources and some wasted spending at a time of stagnant government revenues. China's new production needs new markets with overcapacity such as in the electric automobile industry. This overcapacity comes at a cost when the US and other countries are restricting imports from China with new trade policies. During the DJT first term in 2016 China pulled back reference to make in China 2025 but this was temporary and China's 2021 Economic Plan puts top priority to be self sufficient in Science and Technology. Industrial support for EV's went from $15 billion in 2019 to $45 billion in 2023 (CSIS). 48% of 11 million new vehicles were EV's in 2024 with BYD and Geely the main ones of 100 brands. In shipbuilding $132 billion was invested in 2010-2018 taking China from 5% in 1999 to 48% of total manufacturing of shipbuilding in 2025 worldwide. The same is true for manufacturing aircraft and chemicals. ...

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Attorneys in al 50 states are investigating foreclosures. This will increase the uncertainty for banks in addition to other short term losses.

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After cellphone sales crumble by dropping 50% in the holiday season quarter compared to ayear ago quarter, Motorola cuts 4000 more positions.

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Reporting for this highly informative article on wind energy development in Brazil was done with a grant from the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting. Forero gives a detailed account of the setup of about 400 huge wind turbines larger than the size of a Airbus 380 in a windy area of Bahia state by a Brazilian company Renova Energia. It is an area that experts say is nearly perfect for the steady wind needed. Brazil has increased its wind generation capacity to 3% of its energy generation in 3 years since the first auction for companies seeking to build wind farms. By 2021 energy planners in Brazil see this going up to 10% of its energy generating capacity. New limits on the generation of hydropower is shifting the focus to speeding up the development of wind energy by the government of Dilma Roussef. State owned banks provide loans to companies like Renova Energia. New technology from French, Dutch, and Spanish companies with advanced sensors that shift the position of blades to adapt to wind conditions, the size of windmills of over 400 feet, and 1.6 megawatt turbines, make wind energy a realistic option for Brazil's expanding energy needs growing at 5% a year. French energy company Alsthom has a plant outside Salvador, the capital of Bahia state, to manufacture windmill components. This helps meet Brazilian government requirements for a certain percentage of local manufacuring of components....

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Apple reports a slowdown in iPhone sales, with a less than 1 percent in increase in sales, for fiscal first quarter ending Dec. 26, 2015, over the prior year quarter. Revenue is expected to decline by 11% for the quarter ending in March 2016, over the prior year, first such decline in 13 years. Analysts say Apple will have to reduce gross margins of about 40% to increase sales. Apple CFO Maestri says Apple increased prices in some markets because of the strong dollar. When the stronger dollar is excluded from results for the quarter ending Dec. 26, 2015, sales revenue increased by 8% over prior year quarter, according to Apple. As Apple slows down its shares financial performance is stalled at about $100. Apple tried to present a different picture now that China sales are slowing down- it said that users had "engaged" with 1 billion Apple devices whether iPhone, iPad, Mac, or Apple TV, in the last 90 days, by downloading an app, song or movie. These services geneated $5.5 billion in revenues for the quarter ending in December, a 15% increase over prior year quarter....

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Many African countries have high growth rates but this can be misleading. Much of the wealth is generated from drilling or mining for resources. There is no transparency about the wealth generated and its use, with much of the wealth siphoned off to go to the ruling elites. Even the thriving private sectors can give the false impression of progress, when they are cartels of firms run for the benefit of the ruling party and its cronies. Independent media is purchased by the ruling elites and the information is one sided, concealing the imbalanced development and widening gaps between the wealthy and the vast majority of poor. When investments are made they show a stark reality of years of neglect of education and healthcare. Angola has built 24 new hospitals with oil revenues, but has only 1500 doctors for a population of 18 million. Much of Nigeria's electricity supply comes from small generators as the government electricity system has seen underinvestment for years. State owned firms are "privatised" in Nigeria by giving them to cronies of the government in power. These countries lack a honest civil service, an ethic of responsibility in the educated and ruling classes, institutions of democracy with checks and balances, and independent media. The anti colonialist movements in African countries have failed to deliver on education, democratic institutions, and building a prosperous middle class in most of Africa with a few exceptions. Both military and civilian leaders have failed to relinquish power once in control, with the rare exceptions....

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Over 1 million people turn out across France in protests against pension reform that takes the retirement age from 62 to 64 years. Women feel more discriminated against in this reform. The prevalent age discrimination bias in France makes it harder to find jobs after 50 years, even harder after 60 years. There is a perception that the reform is not the first priority so soon after a pandemic with its after effects, and that other changes including age discrimination and the way it affects women need to be tackled before pension reform. The government lacks an overall majority, the eight unions are united in protests and possible strikes, creating a situation in which French president Macron needs to rethink his whole approach on addressing pension reform- when tacking the cost of living crisis and climate change, energy transition, are other priorities that need more attention at this time.

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TSMC founder claims American cost of chip manufacturing is an "exercize in futility," because American costs are 50% higher than in Taiwan. This is laissez faire economic theory at work, governments overseas subsidize industries. Laissez faire economic theory that became popular with the Reagan administration means the US cannot compete by supporting its own industry in advanced technologies.  Government of Taiwan covers costs at its Taiwan manufacturing plants through subsidies some of them hidden in cost calculations. As the Oregonian reports here Intel and other US and European manufacturing companies are already competing with TSMC, and the Biden administration now plans to support American chip manufacturing- to make America a leader in chip manufacturing that it was when and obscure student from Taiwan received his engineering degrees from MIT followed by training for two decades at Texas Instruments and Reagan's misguided economic theories allowed American technologies and manufacturing to be shipped overseas. ...

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 WSJ interviews Burton Malkiel 50 years after Malkiel published "A Random Walk on Wall Street," putting forward the efficient market hypothesis. That hypothesis he says is till more true than ever, that the market senses information and reflects what that information says in the stock price. This means one would do better than active investors by investing in an index that reflected the broader stock market with a wide ranging basket of stocks that reflected it. By 1974 Vanguard's Bogle started the first index fund for passive investing. It did not gain support till 2 decades later, yet today half of all US investing is in index funds. Malkiel supports the index fund investment and says equities play an important role even in retirement, and says the next decade will give returns closer to 5-6% for equities. He says the important thing is not fancy shots just hitting the ball back, not making mistakes. 

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David Enrich of the NYT looks at the collapse of Signature bank and SVB Bank and the role of lobbying that led to president Trump setting up new legislation raising size of banks facing Fed regulatory scrutiny from $50 billion to $250 billion. Signature Bank and the author of the regulatory law after the financial crisis of 2008 caused by faulty bank practices -who in one of the anomalies of Congress joined the bank's board for 7 years and resigned this week-  lobbied with SVB bank for less regulation and government oversight. President Biden has learned from the mistakes of this Obama period, as shown by Jim Tankersley in his reporting in the NYT. this week. And made clear from Biden's State of the Union address in 2023, his effort to focus on cutting the deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years by getting everyone to pay their fair share of taxes.

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Key points from the prime minister's Independence Day speech on August 15, 2021, as reported in The Times of India. 

The prime minister concluded by saying that 25 years from now on the 100th anniversary in 2047 the aspirations of today will be presented as accomplishments by the then prime minister. He covered many topics relating to goals for India in the next 25 years, from the environment, small farmers, and infrastructure to hydrogen and renewable energy. The thread running through the entire speech was the aspirations of the Indian people, and of Indian youth, that are irreversibly set and that nothing could stop the Indian people from achieving these aspirations with the goals set high for the first time in 50 years. The impossible had to become the reality with hard work and calm, good humored resolve, not affected by the difficulties on the way.

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The Manhattan business district of New York City has office occupancy rate of only 50%, leaving half the office space unused and vacant. Only 9% of Manhattan office employees are in the office 5 days a week, 37% 3 days a week, says this report in WSJ. The business district is far from recovery. New York Mayor Eric Adams and Governor Kathy Hochul have convened a group of civic leaders to draft a158 page report called- New New York Panel. The New York Panel suggests turning some of the business space into parks and promenades for pedestrians to make the city attractive and the space livable with green areas. A new director of public realm would report to the mayor. New York City has suffered much from the pandemic. The old midtown and the old city is no longer the kind of attractive livable green space that people want to live in or get to.

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In the past no confidence motions against president Macron's government put forward by a group of left parties failed by 50 votes. Today's no confidence motion by the left parties led by Mr. Melenchon failed by just 7 votes. The vote for a separate no confidence motion of right parties led by Marine Le Pen failed by a wide margin. 19 members of the centrist Les Republicains with 61 members in the National Assembly voted against Macron's government. This means the government will find it harder to govern. A survey by French polling firm Elabe shows 65% of French people polled support the strikes against the pension overhaul. For Mr. Melenchon's coalition of parties this means it is drawing support from centrists in an effort to form the next government that addresses the issues of workers and families in the way president Biden is doing in the US.

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Should inflation be set at 2% or 3-4%? This decision affects jobs and zero interest rates hurt what retirees earn on savings.  Krugman says Americans were better off during the period under presidents including Kennedy-LBJ, Reagan right up to 2008 when interest rates were between 5-8%, and inflation of 4% was considered to be acceptable. Consider that about 90% of American retirees have savings of less than $100,000, and 50% have no savings at all after two decades of near zero interest rates. Krugman points out that Fed 2% inflation targeting is a mistake because the research is wrong and inflation of 2% gets you to near zero interest rates a third of the time, not 5% of the time as US Fed research incorrectly shows. Financial crises such as 2009 from lack of regulation of financial institutions and laissez faire policy led to zero interest rates that hurt average Americans.

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Bidenomics and how it works for America- you don't have to have a college degree and two thirds of the workforce doesn't have one, you don't have to move and most people can't move to costly housing locations like California or New York. America can build here at home in chips, aviation and advanced technologies in scale and discovery that it has in its heritage. And you don't have to move when factories can go up in all parts of America, rural areas, small towns, and in neglected factory towns from a different era of the 50's and 60's. This is what Biden is doing with trillions of dollars in spending with the help of some Republicans sharing his vision for American Renewal. Not just talk- just substance, results. And cost of living- inflation cut in half from 2022 to 4%.