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The Moderna vaccine can be more easily shipped and handled than the Pfizer vaccine making it easier to use at smaller hospitals and in rural areas. Moderna would add 20 million doses in December to that of Pfizer's 25 million doses for the U.S. Moderna vaccine is developed in Cambridge Massachusetts Labs and is manufactured in the U.S. and Switzerland.  Moderna vaccine can be stored in freezers does not require ultra low temperatures as Pfizer vaccine. Once thawed it can be stay refrigerated for 30 days compared to 5 days for Pfizer vaccine. Moderna ships in containers of 100 vaccine doses or larger, Pfizer minimum container size is for 975 doses. Both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are in th 94-95% effectiveness range. Moderna can be injected as is, Pfizer's requires to be diluted in a separate solution. On Dec. 11 the U.S. ito double its purchase of Moderna vaccine to 200 million doses by end of June, Pfizer 's is still at 100 million doses. Moderna may get its approval from FDA in U.S. by Dec. 18. Both Moderna and Pfizer would require a second dose in 3 weeks, both use the same MrnA technology. J&J is developing a vaccine that requires only one dose. J&J finishes its trials in January and expects approval in February.  ...

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China's effort to tie Vietnam and Malaysia to its economic system- will it work? China has trade worth $982 billion with 10 neighbors in South East Asia compared to trade of $786 billion with EU and $688 billion with US.

Some of that $982 billion is product shipped to Vietnam by China, assembled there and shipped to the US. This is why DJT/USTR put 46% tariff on Vietnam, now reduced to 10% for 90 days till negotiations. President Xi of China visited Hanoi, Vietnam, to sign 45 bilateral cooperation agreements to bind Vietnam closer to China's state run capitalist system. At the same time premier Lam of Vietnam is seeking negotiations with US and has talked to president Trump. What is going on? Vietnam hope to have ties to both US and China. Will it work?

 

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This article in the Economist points out that 84% of Britons want the 3.5 million existing immigrants to stay in Britain, even though the government of Theresa May has not given a clear commitment. May wants a reciprocal commitment for 1.2 million Britons living abroad in the EU. In 2015 330,000 immigrants came to Britain, with close to half from the EU. The Conservative government has not been able to reduce the number- a result for the most part from 10 Eastern European countries entering the EU in 2004 and 2007, says the Economist. Brexit negotiations are not likely to lead to results in migration partly because of the long negotiations with the European Union needed for changes. Other issues are that the food processing, farming and hospitality industries need low cost labor from Eastern Europe.

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Shiller's ten year earnings P/E ratios for U.S. stocks are at about 24.5 in October 2013. By comparison Shiller adjusted 10 year P/E ratio for Greece is at 4, Italy and Spain at close to 10 and Germany at 15.6. The one year earnings P/E ratios in Oct 2013 are at 15.8 for U.S. stocks. Within the U.S. Shiller says, the sectors where P/E ratios are much lower than 24 are in healthcare and energy and industrials. Emerging markets are also much lower than 24 for the U.S., says Shiller.

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Efforts to increase wages by the Abe administration in Japan. Combined 10 of 12 major auto worker unions in Japan said companies had met their full demands in 2013. Toyota offered workers a bonus equal to 6 months of base pay- a 15% increase over 2012 bonus. This reverses a negative trend of declining wages in Japan- average annual compensation declined for part and full time employees, including bonuses, for 8 of 10 years 2002-2011, reaching 4.09 million yen or $42,800 per worker in 2011, according to the National Tax Agency.

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Temasek's investment in Merrill approaching 10% could reach 14%. Temasek's Senior Managing Director Kejriwal says its confidence in Mr. Thain and his team remains high and Merrill's management team has grown stronger in the last 8 months, in an interview. Temasek has $10 billion invested outside Asia. Its total shareholder returns by market value have dropped from 27% the previous year to 7%, and Temasek's Chairman Dhanabalan sees the danger of stagflation as a major threat to the investment environment and sees it posing socioeconomic and political risks for the next three to five years.

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A study of the economies of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. by the Brookings Institution suggests that states in the South may be facing a harder time recovering from high unemployment than the northeast and midwestern states. Of the ten states with the highest unemployment six are in the West and the South, including Nevada, California, and S. Carolina. Unemployment in S. Carolina is 11.1%. A researcher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, says the better performance of the South in earlier years was driven by development and in-migration. This has abruptly ended. A Brookings Fellow, Howard Wial, suggests the possibility of California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida being depressed for a long time, while states in the Great Lakes region see a rebound. States and regions that are dependent on education, healthcare and energy, are doing better than others. In Pennsylvania, the Pittsburgh region with its emphasis on education and healthcare is doing better than Philadelphia. In New York, Buffalo and Rochester in the upstate region are doing better than the New York City metropolitan area. Areas around Akron and Youngstown in the rustbelt part of Ohio are recovering better than Tucson and Colorado Springs....

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Peter Baker talks to experts on American presidents about Trump's 100 days in office. One expert says the presidency has changed Trump more than Trump has changed the presidency. Trump has told reporters recently that the job was harder than he thought, the decisions requiring much more thought and much harder. Described during the campaign as following instincts, impetuous and brushing off briefings, the Trump that has emerged in the early period is a president who surprisingly has been willing to listen to advice from Republican leaders in business and government. He has also changed course where appropriate on trade with Mexico, China, Germany and other countries, and shown decision making ability where appropriate such as over use of chemical weapons in Syria. He has listened to Muilenburg of Boeing on the Export-Import Bank, his Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on NAFTA and Mexico, to Gary Cohn his economic adviser for a careful studied approach on taxes and the economy, as covered here in Lyrarc.  And Trump has built a relationship based on discussions with president Jinping of China, which has helped create a stable climate for world trade and the economy after the ruffled period of the campaign. On NATO and South Korea he has given the lead to his advisers, Gen. Mattis, Tillerson and his vice president Pence. For this to happen president Trump with his exuberant and sometimes volatile personality has shown a capacity for learning and growth over this short period, surprising many. ...

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Seib of the WSJ compares the Reagan election in 1980 with Trump's bid in 2016. He finds the idea of an outsider when the public mood was for change favoring Trump, but says the comparison with Reagan falls short because Reagan had behind him 8 years as governor of the largest state in the country, and a bid for the nomination 4 years earlier. He also had personal positive approval ratings of about 70 percent compared to 27 percent for Trump.  Reagan's first trp after the convention in 1980 was to Alabama to win the support of George Wallace people in the Deep South. His focus was on reuniting all parts of the Republican Party something absent in 2016. Seib's comment about Trump being stronger on the economy is not clear. With the economy recovering, and slowing down as the presidential election approaches amid increasing uncertainty, it is possible that voters would not want to risk abrupt and sudden changes with an untested candidate. Working class voters could still see some of their concerns for change addressed by the Bernie Sanders part of the Democratic platform with help in college tution, addressing wage concerns, and opposing export of jobs, when Trump's program gives few specifics. Another difference between Reagan and Trump is that Reagan had put together an economic team under Shultz which was able to win credibility with an actual plan to implement in the first 100 days. ...

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Forever chemicals such as PFAS that breakdown over long periods cause serious harm with contamination of drinking water. The Biden administration has $10 billion allocated under the $1 trillion Families and Workers Plan that was approved by the US Congress to prevention of PFAS contamination. Of this the EPA is using $1 billion for water testing, water treatment plants and to train contractors for corrective action.

Har Ghar Jal, or every home clean drinking water, is a slogan used in India to ensure clean drinking water from taps for everyone of 1.3 billion people. The US faces a similar challenge to get clean drinking water to its nearly 400 million people. The two largest democracies in the world are tackling the basic necessities of life together, with the Biden administration sharing the understanding of the Modi administration of what this means for the people of India and America.

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Since 2000 the area under millet cultivation in India is steadily declining, reversing only since 2015. In 2006 millet was taken regularly by 39% of the population in India. By 2021 it had declined to 9 days a month. The area under cultivation for nutri-cereals declined from 41 million hectares in the 1980's to 24 million hectares in 2018 The reason being low yields, processing hand pounding millets time consuming laborious task of women, very little marketed.

Over the last 10 years production of sorghum (jowar), has declined, of pearl millet (bajra) stagnant, finger millet (ragi) also declining. Productivity of jowar and bajra has increased only marginally.

With these problems India if it is to realize the mission for millets in India's food supplies and nutrition, and export to the world, has to use mechanized hulling, better seeds, and improved agricultural practices, access to markets.

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Turkey's elections for parliament and for president are on May 14, 2023. President Erdogan is running again after two decades in power. Turkey faces high inflation of over 57% which has created a serious cost of living crisis in Turkey. Erdogan has issued a wide range of stimulus measures- energy subsidies, a doubling of the minimum wage, pension increases, and a chance for 2 million retirees to retire immediately. A kilogram of tomatoes used to cost 8-10 liras and now costs 25 liras. Rents are going up with steep increases. Turkey has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine as it depends on Ukraine for grain supplies. A popular mayor of Istabul Ekrem Imamoglu from the Opposition is shown here as an alternative for president. Erdogan started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul with the military opposing him. His management of the economy helped him win two terms as president, which is now in a severe crisis.

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David Enrich of the NYT looks at the collapse of Signature bank and SVB Bank and the role of lobbying that led to president Trump setting up new legislation raising size of banks facing Fed regulatory scrutiny from $50 billion to $250 billion. Signature Bank and the author of the regulatory law after the financial crisis of 2008 caused by faulty bank practices -who in one of the anomalies of Congress joined the bank's board for 7 years and resigned this week-  lobbied with SVB bank for less regulation and government oversight. President Biden has learned from the mistakes of this Obama period, as shown by Jim Tankersley in his reporting in the NYT. this week. And made clear from Biden's State of the Union address in 2023, his effort to focus on cutting the deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years by getting everyone to pay their fair share of taxes.

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This opinion in The Guardian points out the difficulty that Lula da Silva faces in governing after a narrow margin of victory of about 1.8 percentage points in the presidential election in Brazil. It is a very different country than the one in which he was first elected in 2003. The right wing parties gained 249 seats compared to 141 seats for the Lula PT party in the lower house of parliament. This means Lula will have a harder time governing, needing centrist party support, and tackling the large fiscal deficit of 8% of GDP.

In the elections for the governors of states Bolsonaro won in 14 of 27 states including the large state of Sao Paulo. Lula owed his victory to large margins in the 10 relatively poor northeastern states where incomes are below $400 a month including Bahia. Where incomes are over $400 as in Sao Paulo the vote was in Bolsonaro's favor.

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One of the Russia's goals was to form a rival economic bloc of former soviet republics. Instead the Ukraine invasion has led to disastrous results for the economies of this region which are interconnected. Research from the World Bank shows the Russian economy declining by 11% and with further economic impact upto 25%, Ukraine's economy by 45%, former soviet republics like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic, by 30% because of loss of remittances and the fallout from the economic effects on Russia. Belarus would see its economy shrink by 30%, Moldova by 30%, according to the World Bank. 

The miscalculations of all sides from leadership in Russia to that of Merkel in Germany, and the invasion itself, is putting severe economic losses on this part of Europe. Many of these economies will have to take loans from the IMF and the World Bank to remain solvent. 

 

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A sharp increase in the price of used cars of as much as 36% during the pandemic when supply chain problems made it difficult to find new cars, puts lower income buyers under greater financial stress. This meant buyers tended to have much older cars, from 2013 or 2014 that were over 10 years old with close to 100,000 miles. And more likely to breakdown costing a lot to repair. Combined with this need for major repairs the cost of repairs went up 13% in the last year, with a shortage of mechanics plus costlier parts. As a result some buyers of older used cars are unable to make their car payments and are falling behind. This WSJ report looks at the growing problem with some buyers simply stopping payments on loans taken out to buy used cars they could not repair because of the size of the bill.

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About 85% of people in Portugal a country of 10 million people are fully vaccinated in October 2021, highest in Europe. Strict precautions for prevention such as social distancing and mask remained in place after the surge in January 2021 which led to deaths at a rate that was three times the peak rate in the US.

On October 1, 2021 the restrictions such as 30% limit on filling soccer stadiums were lifted. For the Benefica vs Bayern Munich soccer game restrictions were lifted leading to filled stadiums with vaccination pass mandatory. As people return to indoors in winter this could still result in increase in cases. Because Portugal depends on tourism and stadiums are filled to capacity there is the risk of a smaller surge. Cruise ships are back in Portuguese ports and tourists,are back in large numbers. Soccer fans, fill subways, leading to new concern about a limited spread of the coronavirus.

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Cities including London, New York, Paris, Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Melbourne, Milan, Caracas, Cape Town, Copenhagen, Vancouver, have pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050.

Reducing transport emissions is a big challenge. London has Ultra low Emission Zone which encourages people to switch to low emission vehicles.  Paris is creating 650 kilometres of cycling paths and plans to open up the whole city to bicycles by 2026. Buildings have a large carbon footprint - producing 38% of global carbon emissions. Of this 11% are in the construction materials of steel and concrete, Wood is an alternative material that is being tried in buildings. Passive heating is a way to heat or cool buildings by building underground canals around a building and using the natural temperatures of the earth to cool or heat the air above. This is seen in the Energon building in Ulm, Germany.

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Six years after the VW diesel emissions scandal was uncovered in September 2015 by the California clean air agency, CARB, perceptions have changed in Germany. This report says the charges leveled against the defendants including former CEO include organized commercial fraud and tax evasion. The grounds for this are that thousands of former VW customers were able to claim tax credits in Germany for the vehicle misstated low emissions levels. In Germany organized fraud is subject to up to 10 years in jail. German experts cited here say it is very unlikely that higher management were no aware of the effort to distort emissions results. 

Much has changed in Germany since then. The auto industry has shifted away from diesel to electric cars. German federal government no longer sees Germany's auto industry in the same way that it did in the early years under Merkel.

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The Trump campaign rally forms the core of a movement that held together and turned into one of the most steadfast movements in modern American political history. It has changed the Republican Party. About 5-10% of the people attending the rallies are steadfast supporters who attend multiple rallies. This WSJ report profiles one attendee who is a 64 year old retiree who trusts Trump to personally deliver the news to her at these rallies. Of the 550 campaign events conducted by Trump 70% are trademark rallies. Most rally diehards are white and many are retired or have the time on their hands, not tied to home, some even live from paycheck to paycheck. Some love the energy, and some even voted for Mr. Obama. Most are not rich by any means, but fed up with Bush and Obama, and what they call "the swamp." 

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Washington Post's Tara Parker Pope who runs its Wellbeing Section offers important tips on restful breaks and rest activities that perform an essential restorative function for people. Restorative activites include taking a walk breaking off from routines of work, a cultural concept Feierabend in German of breaking off work at a set time, so that one can recharge mental and physical batteries. Science supports this- that during these restorative hours the brain is in the Default Network Network and active. Active rest means disconnecting from tasks say experts and this is why the concept of Feirabend or closing time, finishing time, end of work is very important for resting the mind and rejuvenating. This means rethink long days, to be productive throw in periods of rest, Feierabend, microbreaks, frequent vacation breaks of 8-10 days, every bit helps to be productive and to be healthy and strong in mental+ physical health.

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With six and a half times the light gathering power of the Hubble telescope the new James Webb telescope will liftoff from the edge of the South American jungle into space. It will be folded into an Ariane 5 rocket and blasted off from French Guiana. The power of the new telescope will help it look deeper into the cosmos and farther in time, to open new windows into how the universe evolved after the Big Bang. John Mather a Nobel prize winning astrophysicist and NASA scientist says "we want to see the first galaxies growing."

The $10 billion truck size telescope will head out on a 29 day voyage to a spot four times as far as the moon, called the second Lagrange point, through 2026, collecting distant starlight and beaming back a stream of images and data. The ultrasensitive infrared sensors are designed to capture light emitted more than 13.6 billion years ago by primordial stars.

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Achievements of Elvira Nabiullina as central bank chief in Russia since 2013 are the reducing of US dollar reserves from 40% to 11%of $600 billion in Russian reserves shifting to hold most of its reserves in euros, gold or renminbi Chinese currency. She also implemented the alternative to SWIFT the global bank messaging system, and changed the payments infrastructure to process credit card transactions in the country so departure of Visa and Mastercard had minimal effect.

In this way this highly respected banker has protected Russia's economy from western sanctions, says NYT. She is trusted by president Putin and was adviser to Putin in 2012, minister of economic development before that when Putin was prime minister. When Russia suffered an economic crisis in 2014 as oil prices fell sharply and Saudis increased oil production, the ruble fell. Nabiullina increased rates to 17%, and the economy shrank till it stabilized with inflation down to 4% by 2017.

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Better management of the economy has sustained Russian economic growth in past crises such as in 2008 when oil prices collapsed. Russian central bank chief Nabiullina has helped steer the economy holding US dollar reserves to just 11% the rest of $600 billion reserves in renminbi, euros and gold. Yet the war in Ukraine has introduced limits. With labor shortages and the technological isolation the war in Ukraine is setting new limits on economic growth, says the WSJ. Going forward the limit is about 0.9% economic growth a year. Before 2008 the Russian economy growth was at 7% growth a year, it dropped to 3.5% after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. With China facing deflationary trends, little recovery in growth, this shows that geopolitical tensions are changing the prospects of important economies. With globalization dimming the prospects of Singapore and UK have suffered. The US is investing in growth, and Germany is following the US model.