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A study by professors at Yale, University of Southern California, and UC Davis, (Geanakoplos, Magill, Quinzii) uses a MY ratio of persons 35-49 years in age to persons 25-34 years in age to predict stock market performance trend. This number is expected to rise in years 2018 to 2035 as more millenials come into an age when they need to start investing in the stock market. This kind of model would show a much better performance for the stock market and S&P 500 for the next decade than for the period 2000-2015, years of the financial crisis and recovery.  Part of the reason not mentioned here is the gradual completion of the recovery itself from the financial crisis and the controls put in place to prevent a recurrence of past mistakes in financial markets. Needs for infrastructure and defense spending, efforts to ensure more favorable trade relations, efforts to help the middle class, university students in future budgets to increase opportunity, would create more opportunities for equity price growth. ...

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Canada's Bombardier based in Montreal launched the C series in 2008 to develop aircraft to compete with Airbus 320neo and Boeing 737 MAX, narrow body commercial airplanes. After cost overruns and delays Bombardier has $9 billion of long term debt and its financial condition deteriorated to the point where it needed a $1 billion loan from Quebec government in 2015. About 40,000 workers in Quebec are in the aerospace industry. In 2018 Airbus acquired a 50.01% stake in the Cseries program to provide marketing muscle because sustainablility became a marketing issue in Bombardier's severely weakened financial condition resulting in weak sales. Quebec government holds 16%, Bombardier 34%. Now Bombardier is planning to sell its stake in the A220 jet program to Airbus to cut its debt. Airbus will cover $350 million in losses for 2020. It is also negotiating to sell its core jet division to Textron Inc. The ambitious strategy appears to have failed for Bombardier as Airbus takes control.     ...

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Antonia Romeo new UK Cabinet Secretary Feb 2026-  precocious yet "warm and forthright"  in civil service interactions active as Consul General and at Home Ministry. After Westminster school and Oxford University, and a stint working at Oliver Wyman in management consulting, she joined the civil service. Becoming permanent secretary at the Department for International Development and the MoJ, and spent time as consul general in New York. She spent time with immigration and boat migrant issues at the Home Ministry, and is now keenly aware of the issues facing Britain. That bit of precociousness is needed at this time to set out a plan of action and get results for Starmer and his team. Based on what Labour stands for building on the skills of everyone in Labour not just those who go by labels as centrists, left and right, false labels that ignore that common sense means something else entirely. Getting results means addressing tough issues for the economy, cost of living, housing, through honesty, resilience, hard work and dedication. ...

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BBC reports on Iran protests January 2026. Protests happened with students, with women periodically over the last two decades. Iran over the years since the monarchy in the 1880's and democratic movements (parliaments) in 1900's, monarchy in the 1930's and 1960's, socialist governments 1960's. Cold War and restored monarchy in 1970's, religious theocracy 1990's till today has gone through many different governments. It was part of the British Empire (that included India/Pakistan) and Russia's buffer region in the 18th and 19th century.  After economic sanctions from US and Europe the economy depends on sanctioned oil exports. Its defense operations divert much of the funding from oil based resources away from economic development . Much of that was a result of the anticolonial socialist ideologies that spread from North Africa (Algeria, Egypt) to Iraq and Syria that led to wars in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan- which also led to Iraq's version the Baathist ideology invading Iran. Russia and the US have extracted themselves at much loss from these conflicts by 2025 and are posed at a historic rapprochement in relations. For Iran there is today no danger from the region or from European powers, and like the US the people and the country are asking questions about the economic and living conditions from so much in resources now diverted to external conflicts- like the US the people in the region of Iran and the entire Middle East apart from a few small oil rich regions with a tiny part of the overall population- maybe 5% in Qatar and UAE, and Saudi- feel the impact of little investment in rapid economic development of the overall region. A region with a population close to the European Union of 500 million but a tiny fraction of economic development investment for the vast majority of people in Egypt and other parts of North Africa and regions of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Sudan. Most of the investment of $1 trillion is concentrated in the 10% of the population of over 500 million people in oil resource Saudi Arabia, UAE/Qatar monarchies, the rest languishing in war, and now meaningless- in terms of living standards- of anticolonial ideologies or militant religious ideologies, or internecine/ethnic conflict. ...

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The Trump Accounts for children born 2025-2028 and the Dell $6.5 billion expansion to include earlier born children may be one of the single biggest actions to rebuild the bank accounts of the next generation. It looks at the shrivelled bank accounts of today's older generation with lack of enough savings for a medical crisis and says it has got to be different from now on. The median bank account of Americans over 65 and over is $13400 which means there is little for medical health emergencies and little for needs of older Americans. Median means half have less and half have more than $13400. This is astounding for the wealthiest nation at a time when the total wealth is the highest ever in history. This report by WSJ unfortunately does not mention this at all and dwells on how this is an opportunity for banks and investment companies to get in the door to get your business. DJT as US president with a mandate from lower income Americans has designed this so that it shows the value of careful investments of small seed money. With $1000 to begin with from the government, added amounts from parents and grandparents and invested in a mutual fund that tracks the S&P 500 it will grow with the economy for 18 years, doubling two to three times on the way. It would provide funds for education increasing enrollment in higher education, increase financial literacy by showing how money grows in broad S&P 500 type index funds such as Vanguard type funds. Much of the shriveling of bank accounts for the shocking figure of $13400 median for American 65+ year olds is a result of job losses, high health care costs, wage decline  with factories outshored, hits from 2009 financial crisis caused by bank irresponsible behaviour, drug epidemics and fentanyl allowed to pour into the country, covid pandemic and stock bubbles, decline in higher education enrollment, other. The US president DJT is seeing his mandate as one that reverses these adverse situations one by one to take America back to post war prosperity and rising incomes, rising bank acocunt savings and rising hopes and aspirations for the next generation. ...

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Neil Irwin of the NYT provides some positive news on U.S. housing. Access to housing at affordable prices is improving as more home are built at the lower end. In July home buyers bought single family houses at the annual rate of 654,000, highest since 2007, according to government reports. This is an increase of 31% over 2015. Builders are building new houses at the rate of one million homes a year every month since April 2015. Census Bureau report shows median sale price at 294,600 for new homes in July down from $310,500, largely because more homes are being supplied which is good for first time buyers. And home price increases are moderate, about 5% a year for the last 2 years, based on S&P/Case Shiller home price index composite of 20 cities. The home ownership rate is now at 62.9%, and though this is down from 69% in 2016, this is close to the 63-64% that prevailed during the period from 1965 to the eighties.  It could move higher as the economy improves and supply at the lower end increases further, but other factors are present such as delaying buying a house as student debt has soared, or not buying at all because of lack of affordable prices. Investment in housing is likely to increase- at 3.8% of GDP it is still below the 4.6% average since 1947.   ...

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Covaxin vaccine from Bharat Biotech in India is found to be 81% effective at protecting people from coronavirus in clinical trials. India's first Made in India vaccine for coronavirus will play a major role in India's effort to produce enough vaccine to vaccinate 1.2 billion people. With enough vaccine supplies coming from many Indian pharmaceutical makers who will now have access to Bharat Biotech's science and vaccine making technologies. The Indian government has stepped in to coordinate this effort. Covaxin and Covishield will play a major role when new vaccine supplies come into the field in July to December 2021. The target is to vaccinate 1.2 billion people by December 2021. This is an important moment for Indian science in the field of medicine.

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Putin's visit to India is intended to continue India Russia dialogue. One of the topics is trade. New trade deals are planned to take pre-pandemic trade from $11 billion to $30 billion by 2025. Trade would go beyond energy to include education, cybersecurity, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, railways, clean energy. By comparison US India trade for the same time period is $146 billion.

Afghanistan is a source of concern for both Russia and India and this will be part of the talks. Russia also participates in several forums with India including BRICS. 

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There are now 2 Lefts in France after the failure of a no confidence motion in parliament on premier Francis Bayrou. Le Monde says the Socialist Party under Faure made a responsible choice to work with "reconciliation" in mind at a difficult time for the slowing European economy, changes in government in US and Germany in 2025, and no settlement in Ukraine. The Socialist party made certain of key changes in the government's policies for the remainder of Macron's term as president as the price of it's support and for ongoing discussions.

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Merz popularity dips slightly as he brings up tough issues such as 4 days work weeks in Germany, Many working part time and CDU calling for restricting part time to workers giving care to elderly, childcare, and for education. The German welfare payments close to minimum wage was an issue in Germany but is declining in significance. Most significant today at 35% is the issue of social inequality. Taxes unfairly distributed at 13%, and the asylum seekers issue at 9% lower today by 2%. On the economy Merz pointed out that- "Prosperity cannot be maintained with a four-day work week and an exaggerated work-life balance." He also criticized the high number of sick leave days at 14.5 average days sick leave per employee per year. Polls in February 2026 show CDU at 26%, SPD at 15%, Greens at 12%, Left at 10%, AfD at 24%, FDP 3% BSW 3%. Popularity in Germany is highest for defense minister Pistorius and next comes foreign minister Wadephul. Merz is less popular but he is raising the tough issues and taking strong action compared to Merkel who was more interested in her personal popularity than what was good for Germany. Also not given credit for action is Merz removing constitutional brake on spending for investing in Germany's infrastructure and defense, and fixing problems left behind by Merkel who neglected infrastructure, digital economy, and defense. ...

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Kviv winter 2026 with heat infrastructure destroyed by Russian missile attacks.  In the dark days of winter, life in Kviv and Ukraine contrasts with that of life in the other nations of Northern Europe (UK, Nordics) that see a continuation of the war from the comfort of their own homes not having experienced any of the aspects of life in such a war. The US has sought to bring an immediate or early end of the conflict that serve no purpose for Russia or Ukraine or the US. The root cause of the war is enlargement of NATO and it was done under a series of Northern European leaders starting with Solana in Spain, and Robertson from UK under whom much of the enlargement of NATO happened, followed by Nordic heads of NATO. This was a grave mistake and the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama administrations in US failed to grasp this mistake. NATO was created under the threat to Eastern Europe and Greece Turkey during the Truman administration from the Soviet Union, after Soviet Union collapsed it served no purpose and another institution was needed built from scratch in which all of Europe could freely participate free of influence of any particular part of Europe, with respect for all parts of Europe. In that situation the Ukraine war would not have happened among people who speak the same language and share the culture. ...

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Elena Mayors Taylor gold medalist at Milan WInter Olympics 2026 age 41 years, is th eoldest gold medalist in Olympic history. Her colleague in the winter sport of bobsledding is Armbruster Humphries who has 3 gold medals and is 40 years She says-  "You get a lot of people that like to write you off as soon as you reach 40, it's all downhill from there, is what you hear. I think Elana and I are both proof that that's not true." Former bronze medalist from Britain Jon Jackson says of Elena- "She is not only a ferocious athlete but also a beautiful human being and a genuine person. It has been a real show of dedication to keep going through the struggles of now being a mum in a high-performance sport, the dedication that takes to maintain that level of physical fitness and the hard work of being a parent. It shows her true nature." Elena has 3 children with disabilities and is an advocate for mums. "It should be celebrated that they're both mums, using mum power, both in their early 40s and it's great to see them competing at the top of the world not only physically but the drive and experience too,"   ...

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The new India built refinery by RIL (Reliance India Limited) in the US at Brownsville, Texas, will reduce US trade balance by $15 billion a year and will produce oil using cleaner US shale oil and newer technologies that are less polluting for the environment.  India's RIL Refinery Project for $300 billion at Brownsville, Texas, is Explained here in the Indian Express. The Project is called America First Refining, and was announced by the US president recently.  $125 billion for 60 million barrels of US shale oil processed annually over 20 years and $175 billion for 2.5 billion gallons of refined product to be produced annually for 20 years. US  imports about 2.8 billion barrels a year and (exports 1 billion barrels a year) at a cost of $180 billion a year. This means the trade imbalance from crude imports will be cut by about 10% annually. The new refinery is the first in 50 years and is designed to process cleaner lighter shale oil from the US Permian Basin -whereas existing refineries are designed with older technology for heavier crude oil such as the US gets from Venezuela. Reliance India Limited has a fast turnaround time on projects- new project will come onstream in 2027. It currently has the world's largest single refining complex in Jamnagar, Gujarat, India.  ...

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Iraq is being dragged into Iran War with Iran backed Popular Mobilization Forces as part of the current Iraqi government. Today there are Sectarian divisions Shia and Sunni jostling for influence and power in the state of Iraq, a state created artificially in 1921 by Britain to protect its regional interests. After the Ottoman Empire 1524-1918 was broken up, after the WW1 in 1918, the British in subsequent negotiations got the League of Nations Mandate for Mesopotamia- historically the region between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. It was made up of three provinces of the Ottoman Empire Basra, Baghdad and Mosul. Basra had a large Shia population, Baghdad and Mosul had a large Sunni population.  To this date no census has taken place except in 1987 and 2024 and never one that shows which portion of the population is Shia or Sunni, so no one really knows. Britain installed Faisal 1 as the King of this artificially created kingdom in 1924. The British operated in this way controlling the Shah of Iran at the time, and the Iraqi king, Egyptian king. Britain and France tried to install a Caliph in Istanbul who would rule Turkey and protect British and French interests but failed because of a Turkish military officer Ataturk who declared a independent Turkish state based in Ankara in the 1920's and defeated British sponsored armies and forces from Greece.   ...

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The Stimson Center looks at the closing of an era of Conservative politics in Japan which ended in 2025 after the death of Shinzo Abe and the 2 year premiership of Kishida. Interview is conducted by the Stimson Center of a senior Japanese political figure with 30 years of experience in the Foreign Service, and the author of the only English language book on Shinzo Abe, reflecting the paucity of research on Japan. Shinzo Abe was premier for a short time in 2005-2006 and for a full term in 2012. He made changes to Japan's SDF, its partnership with India, Australia in the Quad, and his economic policy which increased women's participation in the economy. For the first time in post war Japan there was a new sensde of confidence under Abe and he is missed sorely in Japan today. Yet as this senior Japanese politician says, Japan has changed the way the US and Europe have changed, and nationalist politics are replacing old Conservative politics of the LDP. In a way also how the deindustrialization of US, Europe and Japan has also taken place discrediting that era. Takaichi Sanae is itself a representative of the new era, as she did not hesitate to say Japan would get involved if China attacked Taiwan. Her popularity is at 62% and she has called a snap election, as she came in to replace Shigeru Ishiba in October 2025 and was not directly elected PM. Yet in the long view this is also a misconception because neither the Stimson Center or the interview participants had a keen sense of who Abe really was and Abe's grasp of the history of the Kamakura period of Buddhist Japan and China, India, of the 12th century before the foreign invasions from the north. One of Shinzo Abe's biggest legacies is the relationship that was close to his heart, the relationship with India and prime minister Modi. This week chancellor Merz of the Federal Republic of Germany was at the kite festival with PM Modi in Ahmedabad and at the Sabarmati Ashram of Gandhiji. The same degree of warmth shown by the German leader and Modi reflecting Vivekananda's time in Germany, was seen long time back between Modi and Abe. The bullet train project Mumbai to Ahmedabad and the ones that follow across India are a testimony to the warmth shown by Abe for India, and his knowledge of history from the Buddhist period in India when by the 12th century in Japan in Dogen's time Tenjiku (India) was the sacred homeland of Buddhism. Today India has revived the Buddhist traditions and centers of Buddhism, the universities and research centers for Buddhism from that period in Indian history. Buddhism started in India near Nepal in what is now Bihar state at Sarnath and Kushinagar, and spread through China to Japan and Korea. The whole continent of Asia would reflect Buddhist ideals and ideas without the intervening period of Vedic culture in India and China's Mongolian and Manchurian northern invasions, and the periods of European colonialism. Today Buddhism and The Bhagavad Gita are itself strung like pearls on a string as the Gita itself says, part of the long spiritual traditions of three nations- India, China and Japan, and of the many others Vietnam and Korea. ("All these worlds have their rest in me as many pearls on a string." -Mascaro tr. of Bhagavad Gita, Penguin). As Asian nations and peoples come to their own inner selves, find their inmost self, this is the culture that really pervades all of Asia. ...

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Tim Cook and 25 years of shipping overseas America's industrial base 2000-2025. A pivotal moment arrives in May 2025 when for the second time after 2016 Cook fails to understand that America's industrial base, it's manufacturing knowhow, is one of the pillars of the free world without which America can no longer lead the Free World as we know it.

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Michelino Sunseri runs up and down Grand Teton at 13,775 feet in 2 hours 50 minutes 10 seconds in Nov. 2025. DJT says it is OK to use a restricted trail. He issues a presidential pardon for Sunseri who was cited by NPS for using that trail.

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The full text of president Biden's address to the American people through the State of the Union speech in 2022.

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The dire situation in Brazil with 180,000 deaths and Mexico with 110,000 deaths by December 9, 2020. Latin America has 460,000 deaths.

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With Qatar as an intermediary a hostage release deal is negotiated with Hamas, including a temporary ceasefire on Friday, November 24, 2023.

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A review of Champions League games on Jan 30, 2025.

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Pharmaceutical companies in the US will be required to provide rebates to buyers if they increase prices above the inflation rate. This is one of the provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 also called the Climate and Tax bill. Medicare recipients total out of pocket costs for drugs will be capped at $2000 under the Biden bill.

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The drop in the value of the Turkish currency, the lira, hits ordinary Turks as it pushes up the price of food, medicine and other essentials. The lira has dropped by over a third of its value against the dollar in 2021. This is leading to a decline in living standards in Turkey, says this report in WSJ. President Erdogan is pushing an unconventional strategy to increase growth, by having the central bank cut interest rates as the value of lira drops sharply. This could lead to further drops in the lira making it difficult to make dollar debt repayments says this report in WSJ. The problem extends beyond drop in standard of living for average Turks. The country's banks are affected and companies that have borrowed heavily in US dollars and foreign currency denominated debt. A large mismatch between foreign currency debt such as dollar debt and the country's foreign exchange reserves has led to countries such as Argentina falling behind and seeking IMF assistance. WSJ points out that Turkey has about $160 billion in foreign exchange assets, and $280 billion in liabilities as of August 2021, according to the Turkish central bank. Bank lending in foreign currency is 24% to 45% of their total loans in the first half of 2021, according to Fitch Ratings. This could lead to dollar debt rollover difficulties as debt repayment comes due in April 2021. ...

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China has seen novel uses of the internet. Pinduoduo is one of them. It brings people together on the internet to socialize and shop together. Purchases are small compared to Alibaba- $324 a year on average. By  bringing people in large numbers it has brought in about 788 million users in 2020.  One of the attractions is an orchard game where people tend to their digital orchards to earn shopping vouchers and prizes such as boxes of mangoes.The founder Mr. Huang studied computer science at the University of Wisconsin- Madison where he met Chen who now runs the company. Huang's first effort as recently as 2015 was to sell lychees and fruit from their sole warehouse in Shanghai on WeChat platform. This failed when the computer systems of the website could not handle the large number of orders. Lychees then rotted at the warehouse. From that first effort he realized the way social and browsing platforms could work with shopping. To build up large number of buyers who could be served advertising he came up with subsidies to buyers that are financed from the advertising. Money from advertising is put back into the subsidies. The buyers get discount on purchases and the browsing social platform builds large number of users in a short time. In this way it has as many users as Alibaba but purchases are small.  As in these types of startups with huge valuations and fast growth no profits were made in 2020. The loss is $1.1 billion in 2020. It has put $13 billion of the ad revenues into subsidizing the products on the site. Investors have given the company $6 billion for an agriculture program to sell fresh food and produce.  The Chinese government sees the company subsidies as having an effect of distorting the market prices. Regulators have fined the company for its practices. The company's working culture has some aspects that come under criticism with deaths of two employees.  This offers a glimpse of China's internet culture. How much of it is real constructive development of the internet is always a question. Is investor capital productively invested is also a question. Like Japan in the late 1980's few questions are asked by investors about productive uses of capital. As growth slows as it did in Japan by 2000 a lot of these questions are likely to come back.   ...