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Barry Posen, Director of M.I.T.'s Security Studies Program looks at U.S. options as it confronts North Korea over missile tests. He says a conventional attack with bombers could invite a conventional attack from North Korea. A nuclear attack by the U.S. is seen only in the context of an impending attack from North Korea. Very little warning would be given to South Korea resulting in large casualties, says Posen.

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Putin takes the first step for Russia to join in discussions for a lasting peace. More than a ceasefire is needed, as many ceasefires have come and gone and the war is now over 15 years old, pausing for a while and then starting again many times. Russia calls for addressing the underlying issues behind the war.  It started with Russian support for Yakunovich 2010-2014 which ended with the Maidan protests in Kviv and Lviv. Russian and Putin strategy at that time was that as long as  a pro-Russian or a person leaning towards Russia with good relations to the West -as existed in some of the former states in Eastern Europe during the 1980's during the Soviet Union such as Poland and GDR- this would be acceptable. The Maidan protest led upheaval thus had a contrary effect which Germany under Merkel and France under Sarkozy and Hollande failed to grasp. Obama judged Russia by its GDP, ignoring its history and relations among European states as one of the major powers in Europe, a technological state with nuclear power. As China shifted away making the integration of Hong Kong and now Taiwan a priority under president Xi, and asserting the virtue of its state run capitalist system over free market capitalism, the fissures began to develop in the system that prevailed after World War II and which survived the fall of the Berlin Wall. These are some of the origins of the war and are also in some of its aspects geopolitical and relate to world peace,, and peace inside nations in general outside the Ukraine war. And here relate to Venezuela Mexico and US inaction in tackling borders and cartels, the US border with Mexico, Syrian war and Syrian refugees entering Germany/Europe, the anti refugee movements in Germany and the EU, refugee crime in US and Europe, all connected in some way to the unsettled borders of the Russian state with US and Western European + Eastern European states in NATO and the EU nearby. And the limiting or removal of Russian influence in Ukraine seen by Russia as unacceptable in regions nearest to Russia that speak Russian. Britain has the virtues of its parliamentary democracy, yet it is far from Russia's borders and it just like the Russian Empire had an Empire in India and a near thing to an Empire in China, as recently as 1950, over history of western colonial empires of 500 years not too long ago. Which means it is good to be starry eyed but the reality in European history since 1400 is of dominant states and colliding or co-existing spheres of influence, mostly co-existing in some balance of different states in the interests of peace and welfare of the people.     ...

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A Pew Research poll shows Democratic voters now favor a bold ambitious agenda by large margins. Voters seeking compromise swung sharply going downwards from 69% to 46%. Many are calling for Medicare for All. In the Republican Party the shift is slight from 46% to 44%.

In the House the Congressional Progressive Caucus now has about 90 members. Of the 50 newly elected members who are House Democrats 20 are part of this Caucus pushing for bold action.

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Distressed sales accounted for 45% of sales in April. And the increase in foreclosure propertiesafter the expirty of moratoriums on foreclosures continues. This depresses prices. About 10.2 months of inventory of homes exists at present.

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Peter Coy says that as long as unemployment numbers keep going up and foreclosures keep increasing as aresult of the job losses housing prices will keep falling. He says that they may have to fall 20% more than the level they are at today. And that the foreclosure levels could become atidal wave if it becomes easier for alot of people to just hand their keys to the banks. This was what Martin Feldstein warned aginst in the WSJ oped pages several times in 2008. As more people are under water it makes sense to just hand the keys to the banks, and as long as this goes on, the economic recovery will be put off. A study cited by Coy done by Reinhart and Rogoff shows that housing crisis of this magnitude last about 6 years before all the bad effects wear off. And in addition to housing there are other things at work in this crisis especially in the job loss rate which is increasing (663,000 jobs lost in March), and the readjustment in savings rate upto 6.4% according to BW for 2009 till March, which suggests a serious drop in the consumption rate is underway and may go on for several years crimping demand and increasing unused manufacturing capacity. The stories in the media and other information reinforce this statistical information. The bit of good new from hard hit housing markets in California and Nevada and other staes has to be seen as no more than a limited play in the foreclosure markets, that does little to the broad brush strokes that are ocurring on the national and world landscapes in job losses and consumption. Coy a veteran analyst who has covered the housing market and warned during the boom of the likelihood of abust in a cover issue at the time, brings experience and reflection to the developments, and urges serious caution in interpreting signals that may have no broad meaning....

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THe Labor Department says the unemployment rate reached 11.2% in March 2009 for California, and 10.8% for North Carolina. This compares with 14.7% in October 1940, which dropped only as the US prepared for war helping Great Britain and Russia, falling to 11.7% in January 1941.

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The most important way out of this crisis- which is at bottom a crisis in homeowners defaulting and walking away from their homes in large numbers to unsettle everything the Fed has done so far for the credit markets- is to do what Bernanke and Feldstein have urged months ago. And that is make sure large numbers of homeowners have do not walk away from their homes because they are under water. And the way to do this is to reduce the loan burden with the government stepping in. See the link to Feldstein. But Congress is not upto this task and there is no leadership to undertake this, and the Bush Administration is not upto the task either. So if the steps are lukewarm and action is a bit late as politics takes away precious time then the foreclosures and price declines spiral will be a serious danger.

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Efforts by Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to influence or slow the transition to democracy in Egypt.

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The increase of H1-B visas to 180,000 in legislation was not taken up in the House. The executive order addresses low skilled immigrants, but does not take up the issue of increasing H1-B visas. Technical hurdles are reduced and overall the impact on outsourcing firms in India appears to be minor, say experts.

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Water is aserious problem in China's wheat growing areas as a result of a long drought. It also highlights the problem from years of industrialization and overuse and waste of water. Now aquifiers are so depleted that in some farming regions, wells probe half amile down before striking water. Here Shi Segan, Communist party secretary of Zhailing village describes how 14 years ago when well were first drilled water was plentiful and could be pulled up by the buckets, now a well 100 foot deep get mere trickles of water. Villagers like these are concerned that after government relief efforts are over the long run water situation is bad.

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By banniing food exports many countries are inadvertently contributing to price rises in food as less sources of food are to be found. And only a few countries are now left that contibute to food imports of oer nations like Thailand, Brazil, Canada and the USA. Australia is suffereing from a drought and Argentina has strikes that have affected exports.