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The enthusiasm for Six Sigma was carried by McInerney from GE to 3M. 3M was sluggish at the time and growing bureaucratic over time so an outsider and the efficiency focus of getting more for every buck spent and focus on quality in all processes and designing for quality and reduced defects may have helped to bring a new dimension to 3M. But as the author reflects and Buckley who stepped into McInerney's shoes says aloud, as well as several B School Professors, this imposed on a culture like 3M's that thrived on innovation, the post it note being a classic example, was not going to produce the best results in the long run. Interestingly GE itself under Immelt has emphasized innovation, research and development in addition to Quality Control. Going back over the years Japanese QC actually was taken from earlier work at GE in the 30's and 40's in Quality Control, so it was natural for GE to return to its own accomplishments in this area after a period when it had lost its leading edge in Quality. But foremost GE was about innovation and creativity and new products, back from its origins with Thomas Edison's company. The other GE person Nardelli at Home Depot also tried to bring a numbers only focus and doing it in a marine corps seargent type of way stumbled badly and resigned. So this piece on McInerney and buckley and 3M reflects a quiet shift to thinking of new ways to approach the complex global markets of today and the global competition of today. And the rapidly changing marketplace where shifts in buyer behaviour and competitor innovation create a constantly changing playing field. Is Tata Motors small car at an incredibly low price going to change the car industry, if the same companies can then make better cars at a much lower cost after developing lowcost high quality technologies? What is happening as Apple and then HP achieve success by selling their brands through stores and Dell starts to slip? Why is P&G and Unilever looking at the prospects in selling to consumers with smaller budgets and shifting its focus to these markets for growth? Doesnt this require one to think on ones feet and listen and observe and reflect on what these changes mean? Roger Martin of the University of Toronto has a piece in BW, May 21, 2007, with a similiar thought. ...

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JP Morgan estimates that 150 million Chinese were in the stock market at the end of 2007. THese would be in the urban areas and in large cities where the brokerage houses are located. As a percentage of the new middle class this is is a significant part of the urban population. The drop in the Shanghai stock exchange of 46% from its high in October 2007 is going to significantly impact consumption in 2008 and 2009 as savings of the average person on the street have taken a big hit And 15-20 % of the earnings of pubicly listed companies on the Shanghai stock exchangenot involved in banking and finance came from stock trading gains according to experts. If you add the earnings of financial companies and banks then you have banks having large losses which happened in Japan from the drop in their stock assets holdings, and reluctant to lend to business leading to a tightening in credit and a contraction in the economy from another angle. Something similiar to what happened to banks in the USA but in that case originating from a housing bubble. The industrial companies that engaged in stock trading would also have a drop in assets and earnings and thus have less to invest. That this would lead to a small drop in growth rates is not plausible, growth rates dropping from 11 to 9% as some experts say. Because there are overextensions in other areas such as real estate and other negative factors such as rising inflation including rising food prices, rising oil prices, and rising labor costs, and a slowdown in the export sector as markets in the western countries especially in the US go through a protracted slowdown. All these factors take time to have an impact and one could see much lower growth rates taking the pressure off oil demand and oil prices. A similar situation may be seen in other countries like India where the Bombay stock exchange dropped 31% from its high late last year and 53% drop in Vietnam. Vietnam and India may benefit from a shift in production from China as companies try to look for alternatives to the higher cost environment in China but they would still see a significant drop in growth rates before resuming high growth rates. ...

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Biden sees his plan for American workers and families put together in the $3.5 trillion spending package that covers child care, education, healthcare, services, climate change proposals, infrastructure building, as a way to show that democratic governments can work for the people. After two decades when American workers and families were largely put aside in the nation's priorities during a tech driven and capital markets driven expansion that benefited large corporations, America is returning to its core concept of government by the people, for the people, of the people. White House officials say this is to be seen even in the program he put forward in his upset victory many years ago for the US Senate from Delaware. Because economic strength of America depends on a strong middle class, and strong working class, strong families, and underpins the world leadership role of America, even Republicans and hesitant Democrats, cannot give in to the current situation of doing nothing or too little for workers and families which weakens America. And at a time when its leadership role in Asia and Latin America, Africa is sorely needed. The size of the package in $3.5 trillion is because too little was done in the past in the mistaken acceptance of Reagan policies of no government role in the economy- surrendering this role of guidance entirely to the capital markets driven from New York, London, and Silicon Valley. The rise of China today, and also of Japan and South Korea, and of India as it plans for 2030 shows that government guidance of the economy is needed in global competition. Trade entirely driven by capital markets, without a role for government to emphasize national priorities in spending can lead to disastrous results such as we see today where manufacturing even in critical fields such as healthcare, semiconductor driven technology, entire parts of the economic structure are ceded to China and supply chains outside the US. German elections are also leading in the same direction with Social Democrats emphasizing national priorities in child care, education, healthcare, and delivery of social services, building of infrastructure. And the Greens emphasizing climate change. Merkel in Germany and in the European Union, her predecessor Schroeder, pursued policies of no government role in emphasizing and articulating national priorities, in a way that past US presidents have done, resulting in the CDU falling to 20% support in the September German elections. Across all parts of the world, from India, China, to Europe and the US, the focus is on government voicing the national priorities  and allocating funding instead of capital markets driven from London, New York and Silicon Valley, or capital markets in Shanghai or Mumbai, as the pandemic runs into its second year. ...

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 Mayor Reiter of Munich, Christian Kern, head of Austrian railway OBB, say here that the actions of Viktor Orban of Hungary gave the German government very little time, only a few hours, to act. The first motivation was to act in a humanitarian way, which is what happened. The German government had asked Orban to register and handle immigrants in an orderly way. In the end with the failure of Orban to do this, the immigrants who would have come north anyway, streamed into Germany and Austria in buses and trains. Clearly Hungary and Germany could have handled this better. The German public provided support with a large number of volunteers helping. One German minister is cited here as saying that if Orban wanted to build a fence he should have done it in a quiet way, as there are fences between Bulgaria and Turkey, and Turkey and Greece and it has not bothered anyone.

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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

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Freeman contrasts the speeches given by Obama and Trump, one in Cairo after becoming president, and the other in Riyadh. Freeman says Obama did not give enough credit to American leadership and progress on women's rights, and was not critical of Iran during a period in which sectarian strife has led to the situation in Syria and Iraq. 

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This NYT editorial says that before he was elected Mexico's president Nieto, with his book "Mexico- The Great Hope," (Mexico- La Gran Esperanza)presented himself as a candidate who would transform Mexico. Yet says NYT three years into his administration it has turned out to be very different, with no effort to clear up the questions about the murder of 43 students in Guerrero state. Economic growth has not matched the hopes generated after the Pacto de Mexico was approved and new legislation limiting monopolies passed. The slump in oil prices has led to limited results following the opening up of the oil industry to foreign investment. The result is an administration increasingly unpopular in Mexico and failing to deliver on the hope generated in the early months of Pena Nieto's administration. Many of the tasks for transition of Mexico to a modern economy- free of monopolies, crime, a better education system, economic growth in all parts of the country, remain unrealized. During his term as governor of the state of Mexico 2011-2015, Pena Nieto's main achievement was the 608 Compromisos or promises which were placed on the internet website tracking progress on the health, infrastructure, highway and other projects. During the current administration the early results were achieved in the first year through agreement with the rival PAN party for the Pacto de Mexico, to reduce monopolies and open up the oil industry which had falled behind technologically with lack of investment. Since then the progress has been slow, the one bright spot being the auto industry with increased foreign investment. Regional disparities persist with the Bajio region, and the areas around Queretaro, Aguascalientes, near Mexico City growing fastest. Pena Nieto won the 2012 election with 38% of the vote mostly from this region, the incumbent PAN party at 25%, and the left front Of Lopez Obrador 32% drawing support from less developed areas in the south and the rest of the country. Just as the earlier Atenco protests and police action to clear protesters blocking land acesses by the state for expansion of Mexico City's airport, and the Soy 132 student protest movement during Pena Nieto's term as Governor of State of Mexico 2011-2015 affected perception of his administration, the murder of students at Guerrero affects perception of this administration. Nieto comes from the upper sections of the PRI as the nephew of two former governors of the state of Mexico, has a law degree from the Ibero-American University, and a masters degree in business administration from ITAM....

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This report by David Sanger in the NYT cites insiders in the Obama administration suggesting that the Saudis never really considered the peace talks in the region organized by Secretary of State Kerry as a serious effort with the escalation in the bombing by Russia, and other events including Iran's two ballistic missile tests. Turkey was drawn into the conflict with Russian bombing of ethnic Turkish groups at the border with Syria. By ignoring these events affecting Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other countries, the Obama administration appeared to be calling for a peace effort that seemed to have little prospect of succeeding. As Trofimov suggests in a separate report in the WSJ the Saudis were more focussed on winning domestic support from conservative Sunnis, seeing the Obama administration as ineffective on the issue of refugees from Syria and the conditions for the civilian population.

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Ford Motor's reliance on the redesigned F-150 and other large pickup trucks for its higher profits in 2015. The price tag on these vehicles keeps rising, with some pickups sold at about $50,000 and having interior leather seating, amenities resembling luxury cars in 2015. Higher fuel efficiency engines, body redesigned with lighter materials including aluminium, other innovations, combined with the lower price of gas, lower interest rates for financing, have led to a resurgence in these larger vehicles.

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China adopts a two child policy nationwide in October 2015, abandoning a one child policy adopted in 1980. Experts had warned for years of a policy that would lead to fewer young people, and a rapidly aging society. UN forecasts show China will have about 400 million people over the age of 60 in 2030, 25% of the population in 2030, compared to 14% today if current trends continued. Growth of elderly people would burden the pension and health care systems. The birth rate of 1.4 children per woman is lower than in the U.S. today.

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The NYT editorial says sharks circle in Congress to kill the Obama plan for a new consumer protection agency with the necessary powers to protect consumers. Campaign contributions to members of Congress by the banking industry is having anegative effect. But says the NYT the federal regulators who put the interests of banks first are also having the negative effect. It cites the example of a Fed governor, Elizabeth Duke, who says the Fed has all the powers to protect consumers, in a Congressional hearing. Says NYT the Fed was given sweeping powers to prevent predatory lending in 1994, but did not issue new rules till July 2008, till the damage had alredy been done. And not just to consumers, but to the American and global economy. It goes on to say that consumer protection is the unwanted stepchild in the regulatory community as protecting consumer s is spread across 20 statutes and seven different agencies. Considering the damage to the economy that has already been done its amazing that the same tired old arguments can be repeated without severely straining credibility. The close relations between Geithner, Rahm Emmanuel Obama's chief of staff, and others in the administration with the banking industry do not bode well for coming up with the strong legislation to protect consumers. See the link to Chase's Dimon's close relations to Rahm Emmanuel and members of the Obama administration. And the close connections which helped the banking industry kill legislation that would have helped homeowners, by allowing bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages to prevent foreclosures....

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This New York Times editorial describes the impact on lower income Americans of spending cuts that are part of the Romney-Ryan plan.

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Foreign investment in the auto industry is having a significant impact in the growth of Mexico's middle class. VW has plants in Puebla, General Motors in Silao, Chrysler in Toluca, Nissan in Aguascalientes. Production increased by 24% in February 2012 over the prior year. The growth is likely to continue. Facilities in Mexico have high productivity and are technologically equiped comparable to plants in the U.S., Europe and Japan. Nissan plans a $2 billion investment in a plant in Aguascalientes. Because of the lower cost of living, with food, transportation and health care costing less, even though household appliances cost more, workers at a Mexican plant earning $4 an hour in pay and benefits or $130 a week can still have a decent standard of living. Foreign investment is likely to grow with Mexico's emphasis on technical education - about 130,000 engineers graduating each year according to Mexico's president Calderon- the work ethic of young Mexicans joining manufacturing plants, the productivity of these lower cost plants, and a growing market in Latin America. Nissan plans to produce 1 million cars in Mexico with an investment of $2 billion in Aguascalientes. Nissan has succeeded in taking over from VW as the preeminent manufacturer in Mexico, and has 32,000 workers in the Aguascalientes area, once a small town but now a thriving city of 700,000. Drug cartels have no interest in places like Aguasalientes, which is why foreign investment continues to come into Mexico. The lack of economical credit- interest rate on car loans is about 10%- and the flow of about 600,000 used cars each year into Mexico from the U.S. has restricted growth in Mexico's automobile market. Jose Munoz, Nissan's senior executive for Latin America sees this changing as more credit including Nissan's new financing center in Aguascalientes make lower cost credit easily available to a growing middle class....

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Austin, Texas and growth in "middle skill" jobs which offers ways to increase jobs growth in the U.S. in 2012-2015.

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Difficulties facing Britain which depends on continental Europe for exports and would be affected by whatever happens in Europe, and yet is reduced to being on the sidelines. This comes at a difficult time for the Cameron government, which is a coalition of Conservative party members who are euroskeptics, and the Liberal party members who are the most europhile of the the three major British parties. Sarkozy and Merkel have made clear that they would move ahead with a closer fiscal union within the eurozone, no matter what Britain's views are. This leaves David Cameron's government to what Labor leader, Ed Miliband, called "handwringing," as Britain can do little about the future direction of the EU. Cameron is able to please backbenchers in parliament from his party with talk about protecting British interests, but has no neotiating leverage, according to Steven Fielding, director of the Center for British Politics at the University of Nottingham. Britain may also have antagonized European leaders. Sarkozy said about Cameron and British government views: "You say you hate the euro and now you want to interfere with our meetings." This also happens as Britain faces rising unemployment, and deficits larger than anticipated after austerity measures taken by the Cameron government....

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Automakers had U.S. sales of 1.2 million cars and light trucks in December, 2011, an increase of 8.7% over Dec. 2010, acccording to Autodata Corp. Total light vehicle sales for 2011 were 12.8 millon, an increase of 10.3% over 2010. Chrysler showed a 37% increase in Dec. 2011 over Dec. 2010, Ford 10%, and GM 4.6%. For 2011 Chrysler showed the biggest increase in sales over 2010 of 26%, followed by Ford at 11% and GM at 13%. Toyota's sales declined in 2011 by 6.7% to 1.64 million. Honda's sales for 2011 declined by 7.1% to 1.15 million. American manufacturers introduced new models in the small and midsize segments to take market share from the Japanese. Ford plans a new version of the Fusion and Chrysler will introduce the Dart in the small car segment. GM and Ford are forecasting auto sales above 13.5 million for 2012 in the U.S. market.

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Robert Kagan makes the case for continued leadership of the U.S as a champion of liberal democracy and free trade, as the view that it will just happen in a multipolar world of China, India, the U.S. and Europe, is not credible. The existing democracies- India, Brazil, Turkey, S. Africa, Australia -are weak and lack the experience to provide this leadership. India and China could easily end up in rivalry in a multipolar world. This has implications for today. The U.S. cannot provide this leadership as a services economy- it needs a strong manufacturing base to do this. Lessening inequality was a hallmark of the progress made in the 20th century, and especially the six decades since World War II when the U.S. clearly exercized this leadership. The progress to European unity was another hallmark of these six decades. A healthy Japan was also part of this.

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Auto sales for 2010 are expected to come in at 11.5 million, a significant drop from the 17.5 million in 2000. A better job market expected to push the unemployment rate down a bit to 9.7% from 9.8% in November will help, but not by enough. Credit Suisse analyst Christopher Ceraso says each percentage point that the rate is above normal ( about 5%) keeps sales back by about a million auto sales on an annual basis. To get sales back to a 16 million range this would require an unemployment rate of 6%. Economists expect a better US economy in 2011 but the prospects remain uncertain for 2012, bringing unemployment down to about 8-9% if hiring picks up. The other concerns are high consumer debt and a rise in gasoline prices. If gas prices rise and buyers shift back to smaller vehicles, as they did in 2008, this would squeeze margins and profits. This is especially a concern as automobile companies have increased profits with a larger truck and large size vehicle component of sales, in a reverse shift after the shift to smaller cars in 2008-2009. Ford Motor is one example of this. It helps Ford use the extra profits to reduce its debt load but automakers have to be prepared for a sales shift to smaller cars in the face of higher gas prices....

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Paul Barrett, Assistant Managing Editor of Business Week says the year 2009 will represent a year of lost opportunity to reform the financial system. The Obama administration and Congress did not have the courage to do what is needed, and did not take Paul Volcker's advice on the danger of ahandful of banking institutions controllig a major portion of global banking assets. The WSJ reported that the world's 10 biggest banks account for about 70% of global banking assets, up from 59% before the crisis. It is ayear he says of missed opportunities and little was done in so many areas, including derivatives regulation and the credit rating agencies continue doing business as before with clear conflict of interest inherent in their practices. Barrett says genuine reform fizzled, and we will regret it. The Obama administration and Congress let themselves be influenced by the banking lobbyists and bankers, just as they allowed genuine health reform opportunities to slip in 2009.

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Wages in U.S. manufacturing are declining as the U.S. regains competitivness with Mexico, China and other emerging market countries in manufacturing, through a combination of productivity from new machinery and lower wages. At the same time as this revives U.S. manufacturing this is lowering wages in manufacturing based economies in the midwest and other parts of the country. This can be seen in cities like Dayton, Ohio, where in the past good paying jobs could be found in manufacturing without a college diploma. Many of these jobs paying $15-$20 an hour are being replaced by lower paying jobs paying $10 an hour. With the cost of college education already spiralling beyond the reach of ordinary incomes, and college debt reaching $1 trillion and harder to payoff, the move to lower wages increases the probabilities that college will remain elusive to children in these families. The automated plants and lower number of workers needed to operate machinery in new and modernized plants means unemployment in manufacturing will see slow growth. This is likely to lead to continued high unemployment in cities that lag behind in college education for opportunties outside of manufacturing and in manufacturing jobs. This is also why more experts are calling for government, college and private sector support for vocational training to improve job and income opportunties....