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 WSJ interviews Burton Malkiel 50 years after Malkiel published "A Random Walk on Wall Street," putting forward the efficient market hypothesis. That hypothesis he says is till more true than ever, that the market senses information and reflects what that information says in the stock price. This means one would do better than active investors by investing in an index that reflected the broader stock market with a wide ranging basket of stocks that reflected it. By 1974 Vanguard's Bogle started the first index fund for passive investing. It did not gain support till 2 decades later, yet today half of all US investing is in index funds. Malkiel supports the index fund investment and says equities play an important role even in retirement, and says the next decade will give returns closer to 5-6% for equities. He says the important thing is not fancy shots just hitting the ball back, not making mistakes. 

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Potash a potassium based fertilizer mined from the earth is environmentally friendly unlike nitrogen and phosporous based fertilizers. When Belarus and Russia which make 40% of world supply of potash could not supply the world market because of the war in Ukraine, Canadian producers which make 30% of potash stepped in to increase market share. Two Canadian producers will increase production to meet demand after a 28% increase in the price of potash. Potash has the added advantage of being good for the environment and for climate change action. The use of potash needs to double to meet climate change action goals. Nutrien, the world's largest producer of potash in Saskatchewan, Canada will increase production by 2026 from 15 million tons to 18 million tons a year. BHP has a new plant coming up in Saskatchewan in 2026 for 4.35 million metric tons of potash. 

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The trade agreement with Australia starts a process of taking India's exports far beyond the current figure of $400 billion and creating the jobs that come with it. It will double bilateral trade over 5 years to take it to $50 billion. This also shows the wisdom of India not joining the Comprehensive Economic Partnership pushed by president Obama.

The natural ties within the English speaking peoples and the common historical ties within the Commonwealth of Nations that include Australia, Canada, Britain, the Gulf Nations, and South East Asia provide a natural trade and economic region for India.  Next planned are trade agreements with Canada and Britain, and an effort to bring all the six nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council into and Economic Partnership with India, An agreement was also signed with the United Arab Emirates. Very important is a trade agreement with Germany and the European Union for close economic integration with Europe.

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About 85% of people in Portugal a country of 10 million people are fully vaccinated in October 2021, highest in Europe. Strict precautions for prevention such as social distancing and mask remained in place after the surge in January 2021 which led to deaths at a rate that was three times the peak rate in the US.

On October 1, 2021 the restrictions such as 30% limit on filling soccer stadiums were lifted. For the Benefica vs Bayern Munich soccer game restrictions were lifted leading to filled stadiums with vaccination pass mandatory. As people return to indoors in winter this could still result in increase in cases. Because Portugal depends on tourism and stadiums are filled to capacity there is the risk of a smaller surge. Cruise ships are back in Portuguese ports and tourists,are back in large numbers. Soccer fans, fill subways, leading to new concern about a limited spread of the coronavirus.

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Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier says Germany expects a shallower recession. GDP in 2020  is expected to be down by 5.8% much lower than the 10-15% in other countries. Exports in June were up by 15% to China and down by 20% to the U.S. Economies of Spain and the UK are expected to see twice the decline in GDP in 2020. Italy and Germany are seeing a increase in manufacturing output, Spain and France a decline. 

Still Germany remains exposed to other trading partners than China, such as the U.S. and Britain, total exports are expected to be down 12% in 2020. About 11% of workers are using short term work subsidies to stay at home. Cases of the virus are surging in France and Spain. In Germany there is a surge but it is slowing since last week. Mr. Altmaier thinks Germany can avoid a second lockdown.

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Worldwide coronavirus vaccine development and distribution is covered in the The guardian. There are surprising results in a 2019 Lancet study about how strongly people in each country think vaccines are safe. Only 17% of people in Japan and Lithuania think vaccines are safe. Most of Eastern Europe, some western European countries, Russia and China are shown as countries where about half of the people have doubts about the safety compared to 87% in Bangladesh and Uganda. In India and most of Africa people think vaccines are safe says this report showing the Lancet study results in a graphic.

Vaccines once developed will require cold storage for distribution and adminstering the vaccine. Some vaccines may require ultra cold storage of -60 degrees  or -80 degrees centigrade which may be hard to find in many countries. Most of the cold storage containers available have already been acquired by countries.

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Key points from the prime minister's Independence Day speech on August 15, 2021, as reported in The Times of India. 

The prime minister concluded by saying that 25 years from now on the 100th anniversary in 2047 the aspirations of today will be presented as accomplishments by the then prime minister. He covered many topics relating to goals for India in the next 25 years, from the environment, small farmers, and infrastructure to hydrogen and renewable energy. The thread running through the entire speech was the aspirations of the Indian people, and of Indian youth, that are irreversibly set and that nothing could stop the Indian people from achieving these aspirations with the goals set high for the first time in 50 years. The impossible had to become the reality with hard work and calm, good humored resolve, not affected by the difficulties on the way.

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The 22 kilometre Mumbai Trans Harbour Link (MTHL) opens today. It is India's longest sea bridge. 170,000 tons of steel went into the bridge which involved digging into the seabed 40 metres down to support large girders. It starts in Sewri and ends in Raigad in Navi Mumbai.The sealink is 16.5 kms and the two land viaducts at both sides 5.5 kms. Built at a cost of 21.2 thousand crores rupees of which 15.1 thousand crores or 70% comes from the Japan International Cooperation Agency. Construction and engineering was done by Ishikawajima Harima Heavy Industries, Daewoo, and Indian companies Tata Projects, Larsen & Toubro, bringing together Japanese, Korean and Indian expertise for new projects of this type to be built by 2030. It cuts commuter time by 45 minutes and brings better access to the airports and ports in the area of Mumbai, and to cities in the southern part of the country including Pune. 

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The Manhattan business district of New York City has office occupancy rate of only 50%, leaving half the office space unused and vacant. Only 9% of Manhattan office employees are in the office 5 days a week, 37% 3 days a week, says this report in WSJ. The business district is far from recovery. New York Mayor Eric Adams and Governor Kathy Hochul have convened a group of civic leaders to draft a158 page report called- New New York Panel. The New York Panel suggests turning some of the business space into parks and promenades for pedestrians to make the city attractive and the space livable with green areas. A new director of public realm would report to the mayor. New York City has suffered much from the pandemic. The old midtown and the old city is no longer the kind of attractive livable green space that people want to live in or get to.

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In the past no confidence motions against president Macron's government put forward by a group of left parties failed by 50 votes. Today's no confidence motion by the left parties led by Mr. Melenchon failed by just 7 votes. The vote for a separate no confidence motion of right parties led by Marine Le Pen failed by a wide margin. 19 members of the centrist Les Republicains with 61 members in the National Assembly voted against Macron's government. This means the government will find it harder to govern. A survey by French polling firm Elabe shows 65% of French people polled support the strikes against the pension overhaul. For Mr. Melenchon's coalition of parties this means it is drawing support from centrists in an effort to form the next government that addresses the issues of workers and families in the way president Biden is doing in the US.

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Apple gets 19% of its sales in China with a manufacturing base that includes 1 million people employed in one Chinese city. In an effort to promote Make in China China is giving Huawei more room to compete with Apple. Huawei is bringing out a new 5G phone as an alternative and has banned use of Aplle iphones in government agencies. This means about 56 million people will have to turn to locally made products. China presents this move as an effort to protect data and cybersecurity. Yet Apple has a share price increase of 46% this year even in an environment in which US and China are restricting the export of key technologies (by US) or critical materials for electric cars (by China). Apple's responses to this have been slow preferring to keep its supply chain the way it is in a strategy based on the short run, with some minor shift to India and Vietnam.

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China's food imports have grown from $15 billion to a staggering amount of $200 billion a year in 2023. China bought 90 million tons of soyabeans in 2022 or 60% of world trade, to make tofu and feed pigs, much of it from Russia. Fruit imports have grown after the pandemic with bananas from the Philippines and Cambodia, Durian and tropical fruit from Vietnam, And soy imports from Russia, shrimp from India, avocados from Kenya. Huge warehouses the size of plane hangars are used to store Durian fruit in Vietnam and have made farmers there rich. The problem in central highlands of Vietnam is "singularification," where farmers rip up land used for coffee crops and rice to plant durian whose price has doubled for exports to China. Durian is only in demand in China, coffee prices are stable and can be exported all over the world for Vietnam's Robusta coffee.

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2023 is the year of huge aviation orders. Some even say this may stave off a recession. Biden says this would create 1 million jobs in the US. Modi names about 10 American states that will benefit from India's growing civilian and military aircraft needs. The biggest order in aviation history was one of 500 single aisle planes from Airbus by India's Indigo Airlines. Before this order Air India made an order of 470 planes from Airbus and Boeing. Riyadh Air and the Saudi airline also place large orders. 

WSJ cautions that it takes 6 years for planes on order to be delivered. There are production and regulatory issues. Some of the orders can be pared down. One expert says it is a way to get in line for planes to be delivered by planning ahead as the Indians have done by foresight about rapidly growing demand.

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India has one of the tightest lockdowns in the world, Google activity data around retail locations shows mobility down 55% compared to 18% in the U.S. Yet cases are surging and are at a high of 10,000 per day for the last week with deaths up from 600 a day to 1000. 

With consumers preparing for the long run there is less spending and more money going into saving. Sales of everything from shampoo to cars are down. Sales of Suzuki in India are down 83%, and smartphone sales down by 51% in the second quarter of 2020.

GDP is expected to be down by 7% for the fiscal year to March 2021 similar to GDP declines in Europe and the U.S. 

As consumer spending declines the government is planning increasing spending on much needed infrastructure.

 

 

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As climate changes the World Bank reports that 75% of India's urban populations, about 380 million people, work in jobs exposed to extreme heat, life threatening heat.This is the informal workforce that generates 50% of GDP, that works as street vendors, construction or factory workers, house help, auto rickshaw drivers, street cleaners, delivery people and guards. More people will be added- over 400 million by 2050 as India urbanizes further. The Guardian looks at the situation in Bengaluru that in year 2000 was still cool and leafy except for summer that was for for a few months March to May with temperatures peaking at 34 degrees centigrade. Now the summer heat happens earlier 34 degrees C. by February and 38 degrees C. by May. Then there is the heat island effect as the city  built from asphalt cement and metal heats up during the day and heats the atmosphere at night.

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This month president Biden signed into law 100% tariff on China made EV's and 50% tariff on solar panels. The Guardian describes the hollowing out of factory towns in England such as Sheffield and the same in the US and Europe, which was a disaster for these communities dependent on manufacturing. There is now a sense that heavily subsidized products made in Asia should not be allowed to deindustrialize the US and take jobs away from these communities across the US. Trade has to be fair before it can be called free trade. Wars in Asia,  trade that ripped up American manufacturing, monopolies and burdensome pricing of pharmaceuticals and healthcare, lack of investment in infrastructure and public services, shows the deeply flawed policy pursued by presidents from Reagan and Bush to Clinton and Obama that have reduced the standard of living of the American worker and the American people.

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The Bell 212 helicopter that crashed in dense fog over East Azerbaijan due to technical failures leading to death of president Raisi and the foreign minister of Iran, was originally built in 1971 for the Canadian Armed Forces. Later supplied to the US Army and in 1988 manufactured in Quebec, then discontinued in 1998. Iran and other countries in eastern Europe still use Bell 212 helicopters which were widely used for commercial purposes. Iran has to contend with difficulty of getting spare parts from the US and Canada. The only other crash reported for Bell 212 is one in 1986 in North Sea oil facilities in dense fog. Reports say the 50 year old Bell 212 depends on visual flight conditions meaning only what the pilot can see from his seat which would have made it very difficult in the steep mountain slopes of eastern Azerbaijan. 

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Japan win 2-1 in a exciting women's soccer game with Brazil in Paris Olympics. In the last minutes of the game Japan sent a ball over the goalie's head for a goal from long distance. It was a stunning goal by Momoko Tanikawa in the 96th minute of the game, with Japan coming from behind to win. In the first 90 minutes of the game Japan had not scored, missing one penalty kick for a hand foul. Brazil had already scored in the 56th minute. It was only in added time in the 92nd minute that captain Saki Kumagai scored on a penalty kick to equalize.  It was then within 4 minutes that Momoko Tanikawa a 19 year old substitute made an incredible shot from 30 metres distance to take the goal keeper by surprise, going over his head and sailing gently into the goal.

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The final tally is Republicans 220 and Democrats 215 as all results are in for the 435 member House of Representatives in the US. This is the second smallest majority in US history- in 1917-19 Congress Democrats had  217-215 majority of 2 seats. Because DJT has appointed 3 US Congress members the GOP majority for months will be 217-215. Gaetz's and Waltz's districts are likely Republican but Elise Stefanik's in New York is uncertain. 

At 220-215 Republicans can lose votes of only 2 members of Congress. Washington Post says there moderates, vulnerable Republicans and retiring Congressmen who can express their concerns about legislation. About 12-20 Congressmen have scored less than 60% in Heritage Action's scorecard says Washingon Post. This means hasty,  or controversial legislation will face constructive opposition, be modified or rewritten to satisfy concerns of moderates.

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The vast Permian Shale Basin is becoming more of a factory with disciplined large producers in 2024. More than one third of the production is from three producers Diamondback Energy, Exxon Mobil and Occidental compared to 30 mostly wildcatter companies in 2014. These companies are not likely to increase production in the way smaller companies did over the last decade when they increased production by over 10%. 

Over the period from now 2024 to 2030 production increases will be limited by geologic limits, older shale fields. Most onshore basins outside of Permian in the US are actually declining in production and production there is at about 4 million barrels a day.

Total production is about 13 million barrels of oil a day under president Biden and will only reach 13.5 million barrels a day by 2030. Employment 200,000 at the peak in 2014 is now a little over 100,000.

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Germany realizes that it had some advantages in exporting automobiles and machinery to the US, and the EU understands advantages it has in pharmaceuticals exports from Ireland and other countries. EU officials rarely mention this lack of an even playing field with the US. In this report by DW.com German and Austrian research groups say it is best that the EU nor respond to tariffs placed on the EU by the US. Under the 90 day pause to allow time to start negotiations the EU tariff is at 10%, with separate tariff on steel and aluminium, and on car exports. It shows the EU makes loud protests about the US Tariffs, yet knows the need for an even playing field in 2025. The EU and Germany are likely to join other nations Japan, South Koreea, Taiwan, Italy, Britain and seek negotiations with the US for fairness in trade.

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Steven Lee Myers provides an exceptionally good report from Russia on the 2014 Sochi Olympics. He describes an effort by the Putin administration in Russia to develop Sochi which extends for 90 miles along the Black Sea, the only subtropical seashore in Russia. Here Myers interviews Pakhomov, a Putin supporter, who is Mayor of Sochi, to get a picture of how Putin supporters see this effort. Pakhomov says this part of Russia was never developed and foreigners have a poor view of Russia, with one westerner telling him that Russia had little except vodka and bears. For the first time the entire Sochi areas has seen a massive infrastructure effort with roads, railways and a new airport. Myers gets a different picture from Yulia Naberezhnaya, a scientist who is a Putin critic and environmental leader in the Western Caucusus, who he interviews after meeting at a bus stop in Sochi. Naberezhnaya heads Environmental Watch of the North Caucusus which sees the environmental laws being ignored in construction work. The country is divided with nationalistic feeling running high before the Olympics, and a friend of Naberezhnaya finding herself on the opposite side with work in the security services. She warns her to be careful- something Naberezhnaya says has Kafkesque overtones. Myers also meets Boris Nemtsov, a senior official in the Yeltsin government, who participated in street protests during the recent elections in Russia, and is critical of the money spent in this Olympics. Estimates of the money spent run as high as $51 billion, in comparison the Olympics in Beijing, China cost about $40 billion. Dmitri Chernyshenko, president of the Sochi Olympics Organizing Committee sees the project as one that unites the nation, while critics such as Nemtsov see it as a huge overspending and corruption favoring Putin's friends in the business community. Myers is acting Moscow Bureau Chief for the NYT and has done extensive interviewing for this report, including an interview with Vladimir Yakunin, head of Soviet Railways. Yakunin says his company's investment of $1.3 billion will take 20 years to recover but puts it on the scale of the Trans-Siberian Railway build by Czar Nicholas II, which helped bring Russia its current borders reaching to the Far East. And yet the question of cost is never far from people's minds, coming at a time when growth is slowing in Russia- emerging markets currency values incluing the ruble are declining and they are having a tough time attracting foreign investment. A member of the International Olympic Committee, Gian-Franco Kasper, is reported to have told Swiss SRF radio that about a third of the spending on Sochi was lost because of corruption and excessive costs....

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Hospitals across Paris are stockpiling drugs and protective equipment to tackle a second wave of coronavirus. About 163 deaths were reported in France on October 20, up 50% from the 100 deaths average the previous week. During early April the deaths in France were about 400 to 600 a day.  Spain is drawing "elasticity plans" to add more beds for coronavirus. In Lombardy region of Italy hit for the second time similar plans are being made as Italy records 70 deaths a day. 

The head of the Delafontaine hospital ICU unit in Saint Denis suburb of Paris says the first wave left the staff exhausted and he finds it hard to imagine having to go through it all once again. ICU beds in Liverpool England are 95% occupied, in Madrid 39%, in Paris about 50%. Poland and Czech Republic are being hit hard in the second wave after avoiding the worst of the first wave.

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The Economist describes the odd situation where only 17% of Republican voters voted in the presidential election primaries with the television media talking about huge voter turnout. Donald Trump wins a series of primaries by March 2016 with about 35-40% of the vote, securing less than 8% of eligible voters and headed for the Republican presidential nomination. In the fall 2012 election in the U.S. voter turnout was 54% and 129.1 million Americans voted, just to get an idea of how things change in the fall of 2016.

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This Economist magazine editorial says the Republican plan for health care with its roll back of Medicaid expansion by limiting funding to states after 2020, and by scaling back subsidies especially for older Americans and not basing them on income levels, is likely to have its own problems just as the Affordable Care Act. One concern is that keeping healthy people in the market with a mandate that everyone have insurance is present but in a milder form with premiums going up by 30% in one year if they change their mind. There is concern that this may not work among insurers leading to an increase in premiums, pricing people out of the market in "a death spiral." This could lead to more people being priced out of the market as premiums rise. About 12 million people were added to Medicaid by increasing eligibility level to $16400, or 138% of poverty line- this reduced the uninsured from 16% in 2010 to 8.8% today. The Economist concludes that the Republican health care bill has its own problems, and that this bill does not clear up the problems in Obamacare by substituting Ryancare as the Republican bill is called. Peggy Noonan writing in the WSJ says this may have negative consequences for the new Republican base shift to populist support. Critics on the right like Rand Paul see even the reduced subsidies as an entitlement program, yet the Republicans can only change parts of the Affordable Care Act as they need 60 votes in the Senate where they only have a small majority.   ...