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Japan's new LDP government will follow France and the U.S. by increasing the tax rate on top income tax brackets from 40% to 45%. Currently the top rate applies to those making above $200,00. The U.S. top rate of 40% applies at $450,000. It is hoped that this will make the increase in the sales tax to 10% more acceptable to the public and keep a sense of fairness in tax policies. Tax exemptions on estates will also be reduced with the figure at 30 million yen ($340,000) instead of 50 million yen. The U.S. has a figure of $5 million per individual. Tax increases on the wealthy will bring in about $2.3 billion a year. Japan is a more egalitarian society than the U.S. and is closer to Europe in this respect. Higher taxes are supported by the conservative LDP party compared to the Republican party's strong opposition to tax increases in the U.S. It is also a more homogenous society with fewer immigrants and closer to Europe in this respect than the U.S.

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The report by Hope Now, the White House backed mortgage industry group formed to help homeowners who are having serious difficulty and may face foreclosure says the help offered so far in 2007 was simply to help distresssed homeowners by extending their payments a bit. In effect postponing foreclosure but doing nothing more. Treasury Secretary Paulson says lower interest rates are helping. But this help isn't going to do much as millions of homeowners face foreclosure in the next 24 months. As interest rates rise in the future these homeowners will face foreclosure and fundamentally little will have changed. This is the view expresssed in a NYT editorial calling for action on the eve of aspeech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke callig for serious help by reducing the size of the loans so that homeowners can see some real relief. This means somone is going to have to take a loss or a hit, in some way private lenders with help from the Fed and the Government have to take some serious action before this situation descends into disastrous consequences for all....

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Hubbard was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Bush. His plan is for the government and Congress to allow all residential, mortgages on private residences to be refinanced into 30 year fixed rate mortgages at 5.25% and place those mortgages under Freddie and Fannie. The idea is to have a low enough rate to support house prices. Where the homes are worth less than the total amount of the loan balance the mortgages would be refinanced into a 30 year fixed rate loan to be held by a new agency modeled on the 1930's era Homeowners Loan Corporation. New mortgages would be made of upto 95% of the current value of a home, with owners and servicers of the loan splitting the losses on refinancing the mortgage with the government agency. Servicers would have to accept refinancing on all or none of their mortgages, no cherry picking. And the government could take an equity position in return for the mortgage writedown so that taxpayers do well with a better housing market....

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Norris provides an insightful account into the research and thinking of Janet Yellen, the new chairwoman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In her research work Fed chairwoman Yellen has placed importance on the long term unemployment rate and the difficulties workers unemployed for long period have in finding work. This is likely to determine Fed policy on interest rates as the unemployment rate inches closer to the Fed target of 6.5% set by Bernanke in Dec. 2012. Norris points out the emphasis Yelen has placed on this in speeches since being nominated to succeed Ben Bernanke at the Fed. In a recent speech Yellen emphasized that in the recession of the early 1980's median time unemployed people said they were unemployed was 12 weeks, which jumped to 25 weeks for about 6 months in 2010 and is at 17 weeks in the most recent jobs report. Another indicator Yellen has emphasized is labor's share of income in the nonfinancial corporate sector which remained between 66% and 61% from 1950 to early 2000's. This fell below 60% in 2005 and is at 57.1% barely budging from the 2011 figure. In papers written with George Ackerloff, Yellen has advanced the "fair-wage hypothesis," that workers do not do as good a job when wages are held down. Their research also shows its normal for workers in periods of recession to hold out against the lower salaries offered during recession periods, because these workers tend to fall behind newer workers hired with better wages later when the economy recovers. At the confirmation hearing Yellen made it clear that the Fed would do all it can to help the long term unemployed by creating a stronger job market, a job market where these workers would be drawn into work and employers provide job training as well as opportunities for advancement....

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Like Japan China is looking to wean its exporters away from dependence in the export markets- one of the steps agreed on at G-2- in Pittsburgh- and increase spending by Chinese consumers to buy more of the same products at home. Bicycle manufacturer Tandem has lost 40% of the American sales, now it is looking to the Chinese market as incomes are rising in China. As Tandem's general manager puts it in the US the shift is now to buying cheap things. Chinese exports after rising 20% each year for years, recorded a drop in August 2009 of 23% down over August 2008. In China urban household spending was up 9.2%. THe savings by American households jumped to an annualized $566 billion in the second quarter of 2009, quadruple the rate at the start of 2008. Batson gives this account from Shunde in Chinawhere Tandem has it head offices. He talks with managers at Tandem and sees the struggle within the company to some up with anew mindset, and organization, to sell bicycles in the domestic market where other bicycle manufaturers like Giant Manufacturing Company of Taiwan already have a large share in the high end market. Mr Tseng had to convince his fellow managers and the board that it was a good idea, as the domestic market is tough to pentetrate, kickoffs are common, and competition is intense. Tseng says Tandem will approach first the children's market where competitors haven't focussed, and treat as atoy for kids. Tandem will bring higher quality better built bikes into this market. And this is similiar to what it sells to American kids with lots of colors and funny names. Tandem managers aren't sure Chinese distributors or retailers will pay enough attention to their bicycles so they decided to open astore in Shunde and start small and scale up. Tseng says that Tandem will have to pay its tution first and learn about the market. This means it will still continue selling to America and Europe. Chinea's government is now encouraging these efforts to target the domestic market with tax breaks and coupons. But as China and Japn also become more inward looking economies and trade inside Asia increases, the domestic demand is not enough to make up for the loss in the American and European markets. The US and Europe each put in $9.5 trillion into the global economy, even at their current recession diminished pace, compared to the $1.5 trillion spent by Chinese households. Per capita incomes tell the story. In the US $35,486 and in China $2,270. T...

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The grace and good sense of railway announcement person Zende at Victoria Terminus in Mumbai that saved many lives during the Mumbai attacks on 11/26/2008.

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China's premier, Wen Jiabao, opened the National People's Congress, annual meeting of the Chinese parliament, by saying that China had lowered its growth rate to 7.5% from 8%. GDP growth for 2011 was 9.2%. Wen set an inflation target of 4%. The CPI index increased by 5.4% in 2011. Wen set 14% growth target for M2, China's broadest measure of money supply.

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Experts at the East-West Center in Honolulu, say China will add about 55 million barrels to its strategic reserves in 2012, which is another factor that will keep oil prices high in 2012. A number of new storage locations are coming on stream to store the additional reserves. China imported 5.57 millon barrels a day in March 2012, an increase of 8.7% from the prior year month. Oil imports for the 1st quarter of 2012 increased by 11% over the prior year quarter, according to China's General Administration of Customs. This is a much faster pace than imports in 2011, which increased by 6%. China is building its strategic reserves to reach a goal of 90 days supply similiar to the U.S. strategic reserves. Lu Tienan, director of China's National Energy Administration, said at a conference in the first week of April that current total oil stocks, including strategic and commercial are enough for 40 days. It is doing this in the face of higher oil prices, because of the threat of sanctions against Iran's nuclear program could lead to a cutoff of Iranian supplies. China's oil imports from Iran were 11% of total imports in 2011, making this an urgent priority for China. Estimates of the East-West Center are for crude oil imports at an average of 5.77 million barrels a day in 2012, an increase of 13% over 2011. International Energy Agency estimates are for China's total oil demand for 2012 to be 9.9 million barrels a day in 2012, an increase of 6% over 2011....

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German exports to Russia are growing at a rate of 25% for the first quarter of 2008, according to Mangold of the Ost-Ausschuss, a group promoting trade with Russia, even though it is only 3% of all German exports. Russia- Germany trade has reached 57 billion euros for 2007. German exports to Russia are vital to the continued growth of the small and middle sized companies in Germany. About 4600 of these companies operate in Russia today. These companies produce chemicals, autos and machine tools. The promotion of this trade was the focus ofa conference in Dresden last month with top level officials from both countries.

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Martin Feldstein points out why the recent agreement for a "fiscal compact" is no more than an empty statement about fixing the eurozone's finances. In this respect it is no different than the Stability and Growth Pact it replaces, with serious weaknesses. Feldstein cites the weaknesses in the language of the agreement. Each eurozone country is required to limit its"cyclically adjusted" budget deficit to 0.5% of GDP and bring its debt down to 60% of GDP. Compliance will be performed by the European Court of Justice and fines imposed. In practice the questions loom large- for a country like Spain with a 23% unemployment rate, isn't all of the 6% budget deficit cyclical? Again the agreement says deficits are calculated "net of one-off and temporary measures." Under this provision a lot of the stimulus programs would be considered in the category of "one-off." Other language lets eurozone countries frame budgets based on "exceptional circumstances" and "periods of severe economic downturn." Italy has declining economic growth, does it make sense to have a large budget surplus in that situation to lower debt to GDP, and how does that goal relate to "exceptional circumstances."...

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A significant part of the haze and air pollution in New Delhi, India, comes from crop burning in the neighboring Punjab and Haryana region. Here the Hindu newspaper looks at the practice that has not changed even after a 2015 government and NGT order banning the practice. This report cites data from the state of Punjab showing 65% of the 1.85 million farming families in the Punjab are small and marginal farmers. The problem is that the rice paddy harvest leaves 19.7 million tons of paddy straw in the fields and the farmers see burning this as a quick way to avoid incurring the cost of machinery and labor. The Punjab government is required to provide machinery to farmers for preventing the burning. Farmers say it has not provided this. Punjab government seeks funding from the central government in Delhi for meeting the cost. Till then marginal farmers continue their old ways creating a thick haze over New Delhi. Solutions proposed are having more biomass plants to generate energy and use the paddy straw, a Happy Seeder variety that takes works with the straw, and shifting to Basmati rice instead of the common rice crop. The way Indian democracy works political parties have remained wary of collectively working out solutions, letting the problem continue.  ...

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A new report by Medicare trustees found that the Medicare hospital trust fund would face insolvency by 2029, which is 12 years after the projection made last year. But Medicare's chief actuary questioned this by saying that this assumes cuts in payments to medical providers in the health reform bill would be implemented. Not realistic he says, considering that many doctors would drop out of Medicare causing difficulty for seniors. After 2029 Medicare would be able to pay 85% of the benefits according to this report. Separately the Social Security fund is expected to need a $41 billion cash infusion, with more paid out in benefits, than collected in tax receipts in 2010 and 2011, with this situation getting worse by 2015.

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Seattle has for the third year in a row more cranes in operation than New York. A single family residence rents for about $2600 a month, according to Zillow website, 25% more than in 2013. Seattle added 8750 units of housing, double that of San Francisco in 2017. The higher building rate, 22,000 units approved so far, helps to control the rise in prices for housing. 

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Krugman points out that the high growth during Jeb Bush's period as governor of Florida was a result of the housing boom years. When that boom collapsed by 2008 the economy slumped badly. Taken as an average for the boom and slump years Florida's growth rate is slightly below the national average, says Krugman. Economists and other experts say productivity is a key factor for increasing wages and growth, which is a result of factors depending on the use of technology, business investment in productivity, human capital. It is stuck at a low level of 0.4% since 2010, according to economists, and not a factor that is dependent on who is president. During the two terms of president Obama growth was 2.1%, George H.W. Bush 2.0%, George W. Bush 1.6%- making the Bush and Obama years in office similiar in terms of growth. Before 2000 we see higher growth rates under a Republican president Reagan 3.4% and a Democratic president Clinton 3.7%. A significant factor since 2008 is the financial crisis and housing bubble which has in many countries such as Japan and Mexico, and to a lesser extent in the U.S., led to a lost decade....

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Serious concern about lower consumer spending in the U.K that would reduce growth and reduce government tax receipts. The unemployment rate has remained at 7.6% for 22 months. Wage levels are not keeping up with inflation of about 4.5%. The increase in the sales tax from 17.5% to 20% has added three quarters of one percent to the inflation rate, according to the National Statistics Office. VocaLink says annual wage growth in the three months through May 2011 was 1.8%, much lower than the inflation rate. Deep spending cuts are going into effect in 2011-2012, and about 300,000 jobs would be lost in the public sector with spending cuts by 2015. The IMF has reduced its estimate for growth in the U.K. to 1.5% from 1.7%. At the same time the Bank of England is under pressure to increase the interest rate of 0.5% (which is a record low), to control inflation. Britain under prime minister Cameron plans to cut government spending from 47% of GDP to 40% of GDP over six years. This will take 6 years of spending cuts, something even a previous prime minister Margaret Thatcher was not able to do. The government's Office of Budget Responsibility predicts a drop in the deficit from 11% of GDP to 7.9% by March 2012. Yet a lot depends on government tax receipts which in turn depend on economic growth. Britain showed a large deficit of 10 billion pounds in April 2011, and the situation is fraught with a high degree of uncertainty....

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Dina Asher-Smith, Britain's greatest sprinter is bouncing back in the 200 metres sprint after the Tokyo Olympics. Here she talks to Sean Ingle in the Guardian.  Much of what she says from her experience and what she has learned is valuable for people working in all walks of life. How do you take the ups and downs (she did not do well at the Tokyo Olympics) and what is the best way to be? On the best way to be- "As a sprinter I want to be light, and bouncy and carefree. So you can't run fast with baggage. It's really unhealthy. You just gotta throw it out. What happened in Tokyo doesn't affect my calibre. It doesn't affect the  work I put in, or my potential. It was just really unfortunate timing. I'm not the first person it has happened to and certainly not the last." She says one never knows what someone else is facing behind the scenes. Nobody is truly unbeatable, and everything is always up for play, even if the odds look to be infinitely stacked against you. That is why she says she approaches every race as a clean slate. And that is why she does not bring whatever  happened last year to this year. And on that last bit of effort she says- "You have to stay focused, be humble and hungry, to keep finding those 0.01 seconds in every phase, and every step you do." ...

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Matt Dickinson of The times of Lonson gives this story of the youngest winner of the Tour de France, 22 years old,  from a small town 25 miles north of Bogota, Colombia. His dad is a guard for the local cathedral and is his son's motor pacer and mechanic.  Cycling is huge in Colombia. Zipaquira is 2600 metres or 8600 feet up in the Andes mountains. A nearby climb of 23 kilometres is described by Bernal as his "office" and his father rides up ahead with him on this daily training.  In the trials Bernal was 22nd and this never fazed him even though on Stage 13 in Pau he fell behind colleague Geraint Thomas by 1 minute 22 seconds. In the final run in the Alps Julian Alaiphilippe of France who had shaken up the race faltered, Geraint Thomas  also did not keep up. so that Bernal with the Andean training and serious work prevailed with 1 minute 11 seconds to spare to win. Much of his maturity comes from working within a family where the mom and dad live together to keep costs down but have separated. As the elder of two children Bernal gained maturity in having to work with both parents to keep the home together. The first thing he has done with his new earnings is to buy a flat for his mom. Sky team's Brailsford who hired Bernal describes the confidence and maturity he has encountered in Bernal. At 22 years of age he is seen as having a bright future ahead of him. ...

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India's Ministry of External Affairs says both sides have agreed to de-escalate in the border dispute involving Bhutan, India and China. This happened after discussions between Indian and Chinese diplomats. "Expeditious disengagement of border personnel at the face-off site at Doklam has been agreed to and is on-going," according to the Ministry of External Affairs statement. The dispute began when China began work on a motorable road in the Doklam plateau which provides entry into India's northern plains.

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France boosted the minmum wage to increase the income of low-paid workers by 21.5 euros per month, by about 2% which is higher than the 1.4% inflation rate.

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With inflation cooling to 3.3% in May report the US Fed sees only one rate cut for 2024. The Labor Department report on inflation consumer price index showed it was essentially flat from last month at 3.3% over the month prior year.

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India's current account deficit of 4%- with imports exceeding exports of goods and services- and its small foreign exchange reserves of $293 billion as of April 14, 2012, place serious constraints on building a sizable energy fund to support additional imports of coal and other energy supplies. India is facing severe shortages of coal for the power industry. This places constraints on the country's growth rate. Finance Ministry officials and members of the Planning Commission are looking at setting up a $10 billion energy fund for securing additional supplies of crude oil and coal. Energy imports are placing a strain on India's finances and even the relatively small fund will need money from energy companies in the private sector.

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China's shadow banking system of trust companies and insurance companies with trust company units and other informal lenders are the fastest growing part of its banking system. Between 2010 and 2012 trust companies and other shadow banks doubled outstanding loans to 36 trillon yuan ($5.8 trillion) or about 69% of China's GDP, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Hidden debt that is likely to default in this poorly regulated sector is seen as a large risk in the banking system by the central bank and China's government planners. Tightening of credit by the central bank, the People's Bank of China, sent interbank lending rates from 3% to as high as 25% in late June 2013, finally settling on June 24 at 6.64%. China's state owned banks lend to trust companies in this market. Trust companies get additional financing by selling wealth management products promising investors returns of 8-10%. Even with China's high savings rate and large government reserves, the hidden debt and large unknowns about the loans in default, are seen by the central bank as posing risks to the target rate of economic growth of 7.5% if the government has to bailout a significant number of troubled banks. Much of the money funnelled through the trust companies since 2008 has been poorly invested. The trust companies such as Citic and Ping An Trust channel lending to borrowers for projects ranging from steel mills to infrastructure projects, such as highways and property developments that cannot obtain the financing through the large state owned banks. Fitch Ratings estimate is that since the financial crisis of 2009 these loans generated only one third of the economic growth per yuan as they did before 2009. ...

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WIth India's oil imports at four fifths of the country's oil needs, the depreciation of the Indian currency, the rupee, is especially painful. The rupee exchange rate has declined from 55 per dollar at the end of May 2013 to 64 per dollar in August 2013, a 14% decline. India provides full subsidies and this accounts for a large part of the current account deficit. Government cuts in fuel subsidies to reduce the current account deficit are diluted by the depreciation of the rupee, with a fall of one rupee in the exchange rate equal to 4 months of cuts in subsidies, according to Moody's analyst Vikas Halan.