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Over the short run Europe presents some opportunities after Germany's Merz gets the constitutional brake on spending removed and plans $1 trillion in spending on infrastructure and defense. The US is busy with immigration and other challenges, and tariffs are part of the effort to stop fentanyl on Canada, Mexico and China. This poses uncertainty for business in 2025 which should gain clarity as most tariffs are meant to ensure a level playing field and India, China, EU, Mexico, Canada cannot argue with the idea of we charge them what they charge us, as reciprocal tariffs, as fairness in trade. These countries have reason to cooperate as it is basically fair trade DJT administration is after. Japan cooperated so history shows it can be done and Lighthizer was Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan when he got the Japanese to cooperate and be fair. His deputy is Jameson, now US Trade Representative in 2025. They are no ideologues, just fed up with the way things are and US carrying the trade imbalances and shipping manufacturing overseas that hurts ordinary Americans. US exceptionalism is seen as prevailing after a period in which American companies gain a footing in a level playing field and unfair advantages China, EU other nations had are corrected for investors in the UK, Australia, India and many European countries. It also gives American companies a chance to retool for a new business environment that can offer more opportunities and markets including in India and Europe. ...

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A whole series of efforts will come together to cut logistics cost for businesses from 14% to a small percentage. PM Modi says the policy aims to expedite last mile delivery to save time and money. Gati Shakti Plan will address some of the infrastructure gaps. "National Logistics Policy helps in making the support system modern," says Modi. The government is using technology to support logistics in new ways, Faceless assessment has started in customs and e-way bills and FASTag are bringing efficiency to the logistics sector. Drones are being used.  Sagarmala Project to connect ports and dedicated freight corridors is starting to improve logistics connectivity and systematic infrastructure development work. Modi said the world has accepted the production linked incentive scheme PLI announced by the government for boosting domestic manufacturing. Put together this puts India in a position to become one of the top three economies in the world from the situation today of being in the top five. ...

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The target is to move two way trade between China and India from the 2005 figure of $17 billion to $40 billion by 2010.

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As with so much in life too much of anything is bad. Obsession for dealing with inequality without grasping the potential of new technology and people with skills, has hurt both China and India, with both moving to correct this in the last 20 years. Allowing too much inequality disturbs the balance in society damaging democratic processes and creating new dangers for democratic processes.  Today Piketty, and other Western and Asian leaders are presenting the argument for fairer societies principally because this is the only way to generate the kind of cycle for growth seen after the second  world war in the 1940's, 1950's and 1960's  following FDR and Truman, De Gaulle and Adenauer. At some point the curve for growth simply drops with extreme disparities in society- something that happened with disastrous consequences in the history of China and India in the 1500's and the long descent into colonial or semi-colonial rule. That pattern is documented in Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations. And it is a drop no nation or society would want to repeat because of the immense suffering, and the decline of Asian societies in a social and cultural sense, leading to a closed outlook to science in general and knowledge accumulation behaviours based on scientific observation of Nature over the course of the 17th to 19th century.  Some traces of this in the early stages are evident in the US and Europe which is why all well meaning people and people of goodwill for their countries seek a way out of this endless fracturing, the rural-urban divide, the society blind and morally neutral views of tech, and the starving of resources which benefit the broad segments of society for infrastructure, health and education through the misallocation of resources to other places. In the long run what is important is not the long theories which can fail, but to "Just Do," follow good common sense, do the right thing as Modi has done for women in essentials such as water, toilets, cooking gas, digital bank accounts, dignity, safety, access to education. And what Xi is attempting to do for Common Prosperity in China. And what Biden and Scholz are setting out to do in the US and Germany. ...

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This report on Bangladesh politics and economy is from The Guardian July 14, 2019. In 2009 the Awami League party under Sheikh Hasina contested the election in a Grand Alliance with Gen. Ershad's Jatiya Party winning an absolute majority of the seats. Since then Sheikha Hasina has been prime minister through 4 elections maintaining economic growth through the garment industry till the pandemic and disrupted supply chains hit Bangladesh hard leading to its debt burden doubling in 3 years. This led to turning to the IMF in 2022  with reserves down to $23 billion and student protests over lack of jobs. A second wave of protests led to her ouster in August 2024. This report by Derek Brown in The Guardian shows the changing situation in Bangladesh in the 1980's and 1990's after independence in 1971 following the India-Pakistan 1971 war. Zia Khaled of the BNP and Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League were alternately in power with periods of rule by the Army under Ershad contesting elections as the Jatiya party when the two parties failed to govern effectively. This went on from 1996 till 2009 when Sheikh Hasina began what would be four terms in office for 15 years. The economy was improving by 2019. And then Covid hit - the pandemic had serious effects on the foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh, Sri Lankan and Pakistan economies. Only in India with the efforts of prime minister Modi was the economy put on a sustained growth path, corruption prevented by the personal example of Modi's leadership, and a state led development focus achieved using the example Modi had set in Gujarat as its chief minister for 15 years. The rest of South Asia lacked such firm and decisive leadership that is similar in its focus to the transformation of first Japan and China into leading industrialized nations.  In 2022 Bangladesh followed Sri Lanka and Pakistan in going to the IMF. By 2023 the foreign exchange reserves had declined to $23 billion. In 2024 to $19 billion. Garment economy dependent Bangladesh was seeing the effects of supply chain disruption and decrease in earnings from exports. In 2024 student protests on joblessness and frustration at economic prospects led to the ouster of the Hasina government.  ...

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The G-7 leaders of US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Britain and Japan along with invitees from India and Indonesia will meet at a resort hotel 62 miles south of Munich. Located in the Alps mountains near the Austrian border it has no air conditioning. The approach is to have as near as possible a natural setting with a stream that generates 20% of the energy and a rustic but refined setting. There are 5 rooms each for every country leader and a separate place for their staff. It was built between 1914-1916 by Johannes Muller, and reclaimed by his family in 1961 after being taken over by the US Army. His grandson Dietmar Muller-Elmau is the current owner. 

Elmau rebuilt the hotel in 2007 after a fire, with a 115 room building The Hideaway, and a separate building the Retreat nearby for the G-7 type gathering.

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Jet Airways expansion in the international market with flights to the US from India, with its sights set on the premium class passengers and the kinds of amenities they like to see now offered by the likes of Singapore and Emirates airlines. Jet has a $3.7 billion fleet expansion underway. It has service to 40 Indian cities and is profitable in the Indian market.

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Construction spending in manufacturing was $108 billion in 2022. Total manufacturing employment is at about 10% of the private sector. About 800,000 jobs were added in the private sector in the last 2 years. The total number is 13 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. About 800,000 additional jobs are ready to be filled. For years after World War II the growth in manufacturing was at 4%. Today the growth will be higher after incentives introduced by president Biden in different sectors from semiconductors to electric vehicles.  In other products from eyeglasses to socks and bicycles there is a shift to adding factories in the US to be able to fill increase in demand and for stores carrying less inventory that can be replenished quickly from home factories. The supply chain problems and logistics cost increases during the pandemic have driven home the need for having supply from within the US or very close to the US in Mexico or Canada, or friendshoring in India or Vietnam. ...

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South Korean public opinion shows 80% of the public opposed to the release of slightly radioactive Fukushima water into the sea by Japan. Japanese public opinion is accepting this as unavoidable. This is weakening the position of South Korean president Yoon in coming elections. Yoon is a prosecutor who joined politics only a few years back and has seen his popularity drop by 7 percentage points to 35%. Yoon is known for his effort to bring South Korea and Japan closer together with the US in dealing with North Korea and China. Biden met with Kishida and Yoon at the White House only recently, and Yoon made a state visit to the US before India's Modi. Because Yoon is an outsider to politics he has been able to get South Koreans to accept the idea of settling past disputes with Japan tracing back to the colonial era and World War II, yet the Fukushima water release is opposed by the vast majority of South Koreans.

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Fragmentation based on regions, has led to lack of economic development and enormous poverty in Asia over hundreds of years. The civil wars in Japan's history before the Meiji period, the civil war in China during the period between the wars with Japanese invasion and warlords controlling different regions, acted as barriers to development. The wars between different kingdoms with invasions across Afghanistan and the Punjab in India in the period before 1800, led to British divide and rule, and lack of investment in development by the British for 200 years. It created the fragmentation that acted as a barrier to industrial development and modernization, a barrier to the spread of education, science and technology in these regions. All three regions in East Asia and South Asia have Buddhist/Vedanta civilizations. All worked to create national unity before they could modernize and build societies based on advanced science and technology to meet the aspirations of their people in all regions of their countries. ...

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The entire area from the east coast of Africa to the west coast of the US in Pacific is now being covered as the Indo-Pacific region with the US, India, Australia and other nations committed to keeping the international rule of law and freedom of navigation.German Air Force takes part in a joint military exercize of 17 countries for Indo-Pacific in Darwin, Australia. The focus was on rapid deployment. The German Bundeswehr transfer of fighter jets and supply planes in mid-August Rapid Pacific 2022 was done within 24 hours for 6 Eurojets fighter jets, four transport aircraft, and 3 air to air fueling tankers, with 100 tons of material. The exercize from Aug 19 to September 8 was for 2500 personnel and 100 aircraft from all over the world called Pitch Black in Australia's Northern Territory. Next year Gemany plans to have its army participate in Australian exercize. An entire fleet unit is being set for German navy to return to the Pacific waters.  ...

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The effort to revive India-U.S. relations after the visa episode and the landslide win by Narendra Modi in India's 2014 parliamentary elections.

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India plans to incease its nuclear capacity to produce electricity by 5 fold in the next 10 years and build 30 nuclear reactors at the cost of $100 billion. The French company Areva is likely to get some contracts and two Russian companies are building a nuclear reactor and should also get some contracts. The state owned French and Russian companies are protected from civil liability while GE Energy and Westinghouse would have to take care of the liability issues as India has not joined the treaty which created a global fund to to compensate victims of nuclear disasters.

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The difficulty of protecting vital petroleum facilities in the Gulf region from drones and missiles even with existing advanced Patriot systems is likely to result in fresh thinking about the tight sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran. American pressure on Asian buyers of Iranian oil, Japan, China, India, and South Korea, has resulted in cutbacks of oil imports to Asia from Iran, reducing Iran's oil output and damaging the economy.  The election of a new government in Israel led by Mr. Gantz, departure of Mr. Bolton, Mr. Trump's flexibility to meet with Mr. Rouhani of Iran to renegotiate the nuclear deal, and America's effort to remain in control of its policy in the region consistent with avoiding entanglements in foreign conflicts, all point to a reappraisal of current policy. 

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Two way trade goal of $60 billion goal set for 2010 during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to China. The focus on both sides is on improving the lives of the people in their countries, where even rapid growth still leaves vast gaps in the country's development between urban and rural, coastal and remote regions in the interior, and huge challenges wherever they turn from the environmental degradation of industrialization, to health care in a capitalist economy for both countries, and worker and human rights in a capitalist economy for China, to infrastructure development in India. So the sobering tone of Wen " its not a matter of who outdoes whom" and the thrust of Manmohan Singh's "our people are united in their aspirations for a better future". See Wen's speech to the Japanese Parliament in 2007 where he referred to two temples or monasteries in China where lamps were burning continuously to promote the cooperation and peaceful development in the two countries. He strikes one as thoughtful and focussed on improving the lives of the Chinese people, but that said is part of the system of development in China which is focussed on manufacturing for export with few of the worker protections and much corruption....

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Interesting when 53 economists were surveyed by the WSJ 51% attributed the rising fuel prices to demand from China and India, only 15% attribute it to supply constraints, and 15% attribute it to foreign exchange issues and 11% attribte it to speculation. That is that 3 times as many economists think demand from China and India is the culprit compared to supply constraints, and twice as many economists think foreign exchange speculation and central bank issues are the cause than supply constraints. Why? Once you remove this outsize demand from China and moderate the growth there then the supply constraint does not become so critical. In previous years declining prices made exploration less attractive or the fact that price was not stable going up and then coming down making it difficult to invest based on a stable return. Now the basic component of additional energy for countries like India and China's people increasing demands could be accomodated within existing and new supplies coming onstream, without the red hot demand component of growth rates at above 10% and close to 10% in India and China exacerbating prices upto some current estimates of $200 per barrel. In effect the price spikes would reverse the demand growth, and the essential needs of more people needing everything from electricity and fuel and gasoline to improve living standards in China and India at a moderate pace would prevent oil prices from falling to levels that make aggressive search for new oil finds and increased production from more difficult locations unattractive. This would correct the previous imbalance where exploration at low prices near $30 or $40 a barrel and uncertain price levels made for little new exploration while consumers were on a consumption binge in the use of gasoline which created this present situation. And in future oil at sustainable price levels would make it easier to meet the needs of poorer people in countries like China and India as more aggressive growth resumes at some future date after this expected worldwide slowdown. So correcting the previous and current imbalances helps to create a better situation in the future to better meet the hopes and expectations of millions of people in the developing countries for better nutrition, better electricity supplies and other needs of modern living....

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From 1990 to 2008 most other developing countries did better in increasing life expectancy than China- this includes India, Indonesia and other developing countries.

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The Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan cut the overnight lending rate by one quarter percentage point to 7.25% on June 2, 2015.

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In a nationwide television address prime minister Modi of India calls for a Janata Curfew on Sunday March 22, for a test of people's self-discipline in fighting the coronavirus. He urged people to not go outside of their homes from 7am to 9 pm voluntarily in this curfew. The aim is to build public consciousness of the need for social distancing and staying away from crowds and people gathering, as an effective way to prevent spread of coronavirus. Only health care workers and people who provide essential services would be outside. He asked that at 5 pm on that day people ring bells to thank health workers and others who are doing what is necessary in the health crisis.

The prime minister said there should be no hoarding as the government will ensure that there are adequate supplies. He said an Economic Response Task Force has been setup under the leadership of the Finance Minister that will decide on an economic relief package.

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George Bush's administration passed healthcare legislation that allowed private pharmaceutical companies not to have to negotiate with Medicare on cost of drugs. It also passed the so called Medicare Modernization Act that created a huge opportunity for profits through Medicare Advantage Plans. The chart in WSJ shows profits it calls a bonanza. What it means is that instead of reducing the costs of providing medical care to elderly Americans it has increased the cost leaving less and less money for infrastructure for roads and bridges and airports that are dilapidated in the US, and less money for essential services in education and health care, transportation, housing. This has reduced the standard of living and quality of life in America. For healthcare it is providing less for higher cost when compared to China, India, Germany, France and the UK. George W Bush administration put America into 2 wars in Asia and the Arab world which also drained resources contributing to a lack of investment in the country in essential infrastructure and services. ...

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Matt Garman, head of AI and Cloud Services at Amazon talks to Emma Tucker of the WSJ. Garman says Amazon was not slow, just being deliberate and thinking it through rather than coming up with something quickly as Microsoft had done with ChatGPT. He sees the need for regulation, only that it not create a situation where others including China go ahead and the US falls behind. This means that the US needs to coordinate AI rules with other countries including China, India, Russia, for comprehensive solutions on how AI is to be managed to work towards good.

On a five day week vs remote work Garman says Amazon takes the view that the creative work can best be done with humans interacting at the office. It sees this as essential for good work. On the 3 day week with 2 for remote work, the only problem he says is that everyone picks different 3 days and this leads to loss of human interaction at work.

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During a critical 4 weeks in March 9 to April 9, 2025 Germany finds itself without a newly elected government following elections Feb 23, 2025. Only on April 9 is a new CDU/CSU and SPD coalition government in place led by CDU chancellor Merz. Tariffs came to the forefront, the critical issues of world trade and the effect on stock markets, without an elected government in place in Berlin to speak for the European Union and participate in discussions.  Japan's Ishiba and India's Modi offered the US some support as it sought to restore the world trading system to where it was before the serious distortions from China joining the WTO. Much of it the result of American companies outshoring American manufacturing and turning their backs on American workers, and the dignity and pride of workers who rebuilt the US and Europe, and Asia after the Depression and the Second World War.