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China's GDP declines by 6.8% in the first quarter 2020 year over year, and 9.8% from the previous quarter, the first such decline since 1992, even going as far back as 1976 with the passing of the Mao era. It is not power production or coal consumption which have returned to prior levels. It is the demand from the U.S. and Europe, other countries which are in lockdowns. Estimates are that 80 million people in a population of 900 million working age people lost their jobs, with another 10 million expected to be lost, about 10% of the total. Global trade companies are hardest hit.  Consumers inside China are reducing spending. Some are using only the small government issued vouchers designed to get people to go out and spend.  The Trump administration plans to bring back some of the production lost to China in essential areas such as public health and security back to the U.S. The supply chains are already shifting to other countries from U.S. tariffs. As a result some estimates show zero growth in 2020 for China. Financial instability and prior leveraging concerns remain to prevent any serious stimulus. By contrast the U.S. is cushioning the impact with $2 trillion aid package benefitting from a strong dollar and healthy economy before the virus. ...

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In January 2020 employees met at a local Maryland bar to find out how they might salvage their careers in a 33 year old company that had failed to develop an approved vaccine, says this story in WSJ. Only months later following the coronavirus pandemic everything changed as in a miracle for Novavax. The company had to sell manufacturing assets at one point, and had enough cash for another 6 months just months before. By Feb. 2021 shares which had dropped to $4 were up to $229 and valuation which had declined to $127 million went up to 15 billion. Coronavirus has turned things upside down where newcomers are using previously unproven technologies and making them work in this pandemic. The persistence, perseverance and confidence of Novavax even in the most difficult situations shows how the right attitude can lead to remarkable results. Novavax vaccine can be kept in refrigerators for 3 months, and do not require very low freezing temperatures like Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. This is considered a potent weapon in the fight against coronavirus. Novavax says it can produce a couple of billion doses over the next 12 months beginning in April. Novavax has released data showing its vaccine is effective for protection against coronavirus. Results of late stage US trials are expected in March. ...

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India is becoming a major destination for foreign investment in manufacturing in many industries. The youth population 15-24 now exceeds that of China. Over the period 2015-2019 the number of youth 15-24 will increase to be close to 250 million in India in 2019, compared to a rapidly declining youth population in China of little over 150 million in 2019, according to the International Labor Organization. China's one child policy, investigation of multinationals business practices, and increasing wages in manufacturing, are reducing its attractiveness for foreign investors. Other destinations such as Russia are less attractive because of the economic crisis after falling oil prices. India also benefits from the large drop in oil prices to help reduce its chronic deficit and lower inflation- significant dividends at a critical time. Raghuram Rajan, head of the central bank, estimates the gain from the drop in oil prices at about $50 billion. Indonesia also benefits from the same trends. Prime minister Modi is reducing the bureaucratic structures and red tape that are a legacy of the Congress governments since independence in 1947, creating a new climate for business investment. ...

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Krugman points to some striking facts about China in 2011. Consumer spending in China is only 35% of GDP and has declined over the years. There are no signs of rebalancing the economy away from exports by increasing consumer spending. China's dependence on exports for trade surpluses is greater than ever. Beyond this there is another disturbing fact. With weak consumer spending and heavy investment spending at about half of GDP, Kugman raises the question where is all that increase in spending going? Real estate investment takes up about half of the increase in investment spending, as the share of GDP of real estate investment almost doubles compared to figures for 2000. Much of the rest of the increase Krugman attributes to firms selling to the construction industry. The speculative fever, the corruption at the local level, the shadow banking system which is not protected and unsupervised, the poor quality of statistics, suggest a bubble phenomena that may not be under control of policy makers, and risks damaging China economy and the world economy in 2012-2013. After all China's economic and financial planners and banks are no better than America's or Japan's, where asset bubbles burst causing serious damage....

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Greece announced a speeding up of its privatization plans to sell 50 billion euros worth of state assets over 5 years after pressure from Germany and other EU members. Greece will sell 5.5 billon euros of assets in 2011 up from a target of 2-4 billion euros.It will sell stakes in a state owned bank, in Hellenic Postbank, in 2 state owned water utilities, in Hellenic Telecommuncations, and a state gambling monopoly.

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Bank of America's profitable mortgage business in 4th quarter 2012 with over $1 billion in revenue. Bank of America worked with its own customers to tighten oversight and turned down mortgage purchases from other banks. Lending to borrowers under the government HARP program was more profitable. As refinancings under the HARP program shrink from the 800,000 reached in the first ten months of 2012, the revenues and margins are likely to decline, say analysts.

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President Calderon takes over Luz yFuerza, Mexico's major power company serving Mexico City. This sets up aconfrontation with the SME union which by having extra workers and higher benefits raises the costs to about twice what the company earns. Money the government uses to support the electricity companyis now the same as what it uses in an antipoverty program for 25 million Mexicans and twice that it uses to support auniversity system for 350,000 students.

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Indian health minister Mandaviya goes house to house in Palitana, Gujarat, to start India's Har Ghar Dastak, house to house vaccination drive. Indian government has identified 50 districts with vaccination rates below 50% for first shot, for efforts at house to house vaccination by visiting homes of the unvaccinated. PM Modi returning from Glasgow held a meeting with chief ministers of the worst affected states such as Maharastra,Tamilnadu, Karnataka and other states with officers at the district level also present, to start Har Ghar Dastak campaign. Modi told the chief ministers and district officials that his talks with leaders of developed countries had increased his awareness of the great risks in letting any slackness or loss of vigorous effort take place in the vaccination effort. Germany is today facing a pandemic of the unvaccinated with fully vaccinated stuck at 67% and facing resistance from unvaccinated and closing of vaccination centers. The US is also facing the same problem and the winter looks increasingly fraught with dangers for both US and Europe, when people go indoors. India seeks to avoid having to face the same problem by taking action in advance to get unvaccinated to enlist in the national effort. Only Spain and Portugal have rates of vaccination close to or over 80% for fully vaccinated, and this is because of the huge trust people in these two countries place in the health system, seeing vaccination as a gift of modernity, and seeing that it is important to not risk health of older family members with whom most young people live with in these countries. ...

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It is a sign of hope in Europe that the period known as the "Troubles" is over. Emma Little-Pengelly of the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland has dropped the boycott of the Assembly. She is assuming the post of second minister.  Little Pengelly says that we are shaped by the past but we are not defined by it. The party with most seats in the Assembly gained by looking out for people of both communities for housing and other basic needs is Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neill. This is a new form of what PM Modi has called "Nari Shakti" or women's outlook and strength in Britain bringing peace and development to the island of Ireland. The Indian parliament was recently opened by a woman president Ms. Murmu and the Budget presented the next day by Ms. Sitharaman. Michelle O'Neill says we are not asking to move on, we are asking only to move forward. Such are the changes happening on opposite ends of the former British Empire as Modi moves forward with "sab ka vikas sab ke sath," development for all by all, and in Ireland with release of $4 billion by the Sunak UK government northern Ireland can move forward with meeting people's needs. Both Catholic and Protestant communities are asked to work with each other under the Good Friday Agreement and power is shared for helping people of both communities get better housing, education and other needs for themselves and their children. ...

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Japan's Sanseito anti-immigration party gets 7 seats, enough to deprive the ruling LDP-Komeito alliance of its parliamentary majority. Prime Minister Ishida of the LDP party may not last more than a few months. The LDP seems to have lost its way like the Democrats in the US. A recent article in NYT says LDP wanted to bring in 60 million tourists to Japan each year to boost the economy. Yet Japanese people in cities have a hard time handling 40 million tourists in 2024, with reports of disturbance of the once quiet life in city neigborhoods and failure to adopt the culture and language of Japan. Reports of migrant/tourist or immigrant crime get much press coverage. Japan has 124 million people and birthrate of 1.26 below the birthrate of 2.1 needed to stabilize population. Business asks for new immigrants to fill unfilled positions. The public has different ideas and the migration is causing disturbance in traditional way of life in Japan. Similar to what is seen in the US and Germany in more striking ways. The nationalist parties including Sanseito say even if the population falls to 100 million this is more than the population of 90 million in Germany, and is enough to sustain its economy. Use of robotics and AI is not talked about as much but offers Japan, US and Germany, a way to make up for the loss of foreign labor. In essence both American, British, Spanish, German, French, Italian, Austrian, Dutch, Danish and Japanese society share a yearning for traditional ways of life that are being ruffled and disturbed by the migration, immigration, or over tourism affecting their countries. Politicians need to pay attention to people affected and not live isolated in their own neighborhoods from the people in other less sheltered communities and neighborhoods across their countries. ...

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Finbarr O'Neill, president of J.D. Power and Associates, talks about the prospects of auto companies looking towards 2012. He talks of a 15 million car market in 2012, and says that if car companies plan on a10 million car market and pare their expenses accordingly, profitability should come back. In his view new car launches will be critical to success, and he goes over a number of the things that car companies have to get right consistently.

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Matsushita Electric is streamlining operations after the acquisition of Sanyo Electric and Panasonic Electric Works in 2011. Restructuring is also taking place to compete with South Korean and Chinese manufacturers, and to focus on emerging markets. The restructuring will mean 17,000 job cuts over the next 2 years. The yen has appreciated 25% against the dollar since 2008, and the Korean won has depreciated by 35% during this period, making it tougher for Japanese manufacturers to compete.

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Information about the supply of services to the oil industry, including engineering professionals, from supply services company Schlumberger. Investment in petroleum exploration and production is expected to be $178 billion, a 10% increase over $162 billion in 2004, according to an estimate by Schlumberger's CEO, Mr. Gould, from figures published by energy companies. Gould personally thinks it will be higher. Mr. Smith CEO of John Herold , an oil industry consulting firm said that one oil industry executive told an industry gathering that drilling one onshore well now costs $1.5 million compared to $800,000 15 months ago. So the oil industry is getting much less for its buck with skyrocketing costs of exploration. Saudi Arabia plans to invest $50 billion over the next 5 years to expand its petroleum industry. Minister Naimi said that energy project costs have gone up by about 60%, due to shortages of engineering professionals, and equipment. To get some sense of the shortage of experienced professionals consider the figures from the American Petroleum Institute API. The oil industry peaked with 860,000 jobs in 1982, then lost 500,000 jobs by 2000. "A lot of skilled people have either been laid off, or have retired from the industry in the last 18 years," says Schlumberger's Mr. Gould. "Recruiting and training their replacements takes time and requires a global approach." ...

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Erich Scwartzel's exceptional account of Dreamworks going astray as its CEO went in a hundred different directions- a smaller studio trying to get into multiple platforms and industries, and trying to compete with much larger Disney in China- provides a unique insight into what happens when a CEO, especially one with creative talent, loses his primary focus. Extensive interviews by Schwartzel with insiders shows the creative people at the studio struggling to get Katzenberg's attention as he made many of his frequent trips to China. DreamWorks Animation CEO's effort to get into several related businesses, television, publishing, theme parks, children's toys, and enter the Chinese market in a big way to compete with Disney, has led to a loss of focus in its main business of feature films. The result is large impairment charges and several films from the "Rise of the Guardians" in 2012 to "Penguins of Madagascar" recently, that did not cover rising production costs at the box office. Four of six films since 2012, before the recent film "Home," failed at the box office since 2012. Katzenberg now says he realizes pursuing different directions led to spreading resources too thin, and he intends to make producing 2 or 3 good feature films every year his No. 1 priority. Restructuring underway and some box office flops led to 4th quarter loss of $263 million from $17 million profit the prior year. About 20% of the workforce or 500 workers will be laid off, a Northern California operation will be closed, and the Glendale headquarters sold and leased back to improve cash flow. DreamWorks shares were at $22.68, March 27, 2015, down from $44 Feb 2010, and IPO day close of $38.75. ...

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Calpers, California's pension fund is setting down the conditions under which it will work with hedge funds, including separately managing its money, reduce hedge fund fees so that they cover operating expenses and are not a windfall for hedge fund managers. Calpers has only made 3.5% annual returns since 2002 far from the big returns promised by hedge fund managers. In 2005 just 13% of all public pension funds invested inhedge funds. By 2008, 40% invested in hedge funds, with acombined $78 billion invested in hedge funds.

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Just one scheme by a Dallas doctor, Dr. Jacques Roy, cost Medicare $350 million over 5 years. HHS data analysis showed Dr. Roy approved 500 times the number of patients normally approved per physician for home health care services- he approved 5000 instead of 100. A case in 2011 resulted in charges against 115 doctors, nurses and company managers, in 9 cities leading to $240 million in false billings.

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The U.S. Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls up by seasonally adjusted 192,000 in March 2014, with unemployment at 6.7%. Figures for January and February were revised upwards by 37,000. The figure for parttime workers who are looking for fulltime work was up by 225,000 from prior month to 7.4 million. Over the first 3 months of 2014 average hourly earnings were up by 2.1%, barely keeping up with inflation.

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The chairman of the high level group on Financial Supervision for the EU says central banks neglected their roles as guardians of financial stability. He is proposing asystemic-risks council with central bankers from all over Europe as members , and with the clear intent of overseeing financial stability. Jacques Larsiere's plan is part of the overhaul of the regulatory framework for the EU. It has been endorsed by the European Commission.

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The App store an online software clearing house created by Apple has downloaded over 60 million programs for the iphone for users in the month Apple opened the App clearinghouse. Apple is letting creators of the software programs keep 70% of the profits keeping only 30% for costs inclduing expenses from credit card transactions and other expenses. It sees software as the differentiating factor that promotes its iPhones.

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Work requirements is one area in which Biden and McCarthy have a point of agreement in the debt ceiling discussions. Biden says he has supported work requirements in the past. Biden also says he would do nothing that affects health benefits. Under Biden the jobs market is the best it has been for over two decades which makes it easier to have some sort of work requirement for people able to work before they can collect government aid benefits. This makes an agreement possible in which Biden and McCarthy continue discussions with Biden building some form of rapport with a Congressman he has known in the past from his days in the US Congress. An agreement he pulls together would then have the support of most Republicans and be passed with the help of all Democrats. This would meet with opposition from a small faction of the Republican party, opposition that McCarty has become accustomed to including the prolonged voting it took to get himself elected as Speaker. McCarthy and most Republicans are in favor of Ukraine and the EU support for Ukraine at a critical time. They including Mitch McConnell who is present in the negotiations would not want to do anything that spirals America into a financial crisis during a Ukraine counteroffensive with Biden and Scholz's support that could end the war in Ukraine. Biden probably shared the concerns of his G7 counterparts with the Republicans about this. McCarthy and Biden could then simply say they only worked to do the possible and move on to the bigger battle in 2024. ...

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Emma Tucker describes the elation in the News Desk and for reporters of the WSJ on August 1, 2024  following the release of a young reporter Evan Gershkovich held by Russia for coverage in sensitive Russian regions. Emma Tucker said-    "We are grateful to President Biden and his administration for working with persistence and determination to bring Evan home rather than see him shipped off to a Russian work camp for a crime he didn’t commit. We are also grateful to the other governments that helped bring an end to Evan’s nightmare, in particular the German government that played such a critical role." Who is Emma Tucker and why does it matter?-   It matters because of monopolistic/oligopolistic hold over communication of news in the public space that belongs to public service since Lincoln, TR, FDR, Kennedy in the US, and it's shaping of public perceptions such as no action needed on climate change fires/floods, or on infrastructure investment in a dilapidated US. Emma Tucker studied in Sussex and in New Mexico before studying philosophy, economics and politics at Oxford. She becomes a graduate trainee at the Financial Times  in 1990 continuing for 30 years right into Covid years (FT now owned by employee owned Nikkei since 2015 acquired from Pearson for $1.32 billion). In 2022 she was selected to run Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal acquired by him for $5 billion- including $2.25 billion premium- from the Bancroft family that owned it and Dow Jones since 1928.   ...

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Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, India, UK, European Union elections are taking place by June 2024 and US in November 2024. Yet it is misleading to lump them together. Much discontent is there to see as in the UK with cost of living, governance, time wasted on Brexit, India with lingering effects of the pandemic on rural voters, caste based voting. In India protest vote of lower caste Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, even with government support in forms of universal healthcare, food for poor households during pandemic extended, cooking gas, housing support, clean tap water, direct bank account deposit to accounts of poor and farmers. Yet in the states in the south and east in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, and generally in the south the BJP vote count increased so that losses in the north were made up leaving the percentage of vote for India for Modi's BJP party at 37 percent in 2024 instead of 38% in 2019, losing the absolute majority 240 seats of 543 yet having campaigned heavily for partners who added seats 294 of 543. In the UK Keir Starmer may see some vote preference for Labor erode yet the Conservative record is in shambles even conservative experts will say, as in India where the opposition parties offer no prospects for the future and little track record for making India the second or third largest economy in the world which the BJP has set and shown to have achieved over 10 years by taking India to No. 5 in the world economies. ...

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In exceptional reporting from Seoul, WSJ's John Lyons shows how the opinion has shifted in a matter of months in South Korea over installing the anti-missile Thaad system provided by the U.S.  Gallup South Korea polls show that since the election campaign earlier in 2017 opinion has shifted sharply, from 52% supporting Thaad to 72% support after the July 28, 2017 North Korean launch of an ICBM missile recently. When he took office president Moon halted installation of 4 addition Thaad anti missile launchers, now Moon supports installation. and it is moving ahead.  Anti-war activists earlier protested the installation at a golf course in Soseong-ri, and formed a group supporting Moon. Now only a few protesters are to be seen, says Lyons. 

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The American Institute in Taipei, Taiwan, acts as the U.S. embassy in Taiwan. It is about half the size of the embassy in Beijing- with 450 diplomats and is set on a hillside in Taipei over 16 acres. The $250 million complex was planned during the Bush administration and built during the Obama administration. The U.S. withdrew diplomatic recognition of Taiwan as representing China in 1978 in an effort to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War. After the emergence of China as an Asian power the U.S. has upgraded its relations with Taiwan, under the agreement which provides U.S. support for defense of Taiwan. Under president Trump the Taiwan relationship has grown with president Trump's call to the new president of Taiwan following recent elections. 

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Three NBC reporters talk to people in areas in southern France, including Cogolin, which voted in a National Front mayor. This report describes the contrast between the National Front under Jean Le Pen and his daughter, Marie Le Pen. Marie took over the party leadership in 2011, and has downplayed her father's more racist ideology, even calling her self Marine dropping her last name. About 22% of French women are expected to vote for Marine, according to Elabe polling agency. In previous elections only 12% of French women had supported Marine's father because of overt racism. Yet recent remarks by Marine about Vichy regime shootings have revived some of the old memories of the National Front among some women. High unemployment and sense of neglect has led to a search for alternatives, and the terrorist incidents in Nice and Paris have added to the momentum for the National Front that calls for tougher measures. The Republican Party candidate Fillon, now has the support of Alain Juppe of Bordeaux, and former president Sarkozy. Fillon is also advocating tougher measures, and it is not clear how many votes would shift from Fillon on the right to Le Pen.  ...