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Two weeks after his election Donald Trump says the U.S. will not join the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement during his term in office. Barack Obama took seven years to negotiate the trade agreement which was opposed by trade unions, the auto industry and was unpopular in the midwestern U.S. because of the impact of trade in hollowing out the manufacturing sector. Here Frank Sieren of the DW.com points out that the agreement was not really about trade, as most of the gains of trade had already been realized according to experts. It was part of the "pivot to Asia" to maintain American dominance in the region, says Sieren. After China pulled together some Asian and European countries into its trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the U.S. pushed for TPP as a counterweight to the China sponsored trade zone. China says it will try to integrate the countries in TPP into the trade zone it has sponsored. President Trump has said that the U.S. is better off negotiating agreements with each country and not getting into multilateral trade agreements. He fought the election campaign on the basis of the opposition to TPP and trade agreements that unfairly hurt American workers. This could have provided the 110,000 margin of victory in the states suffering from the hollowing out in manufacturing such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. A similar hollowing out in Ontario favored Justin Trudeau's Liberals against the Conservatives in Canada's election. ...

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There are some major problems in the American jobs market which suggest a long drawn out effort to reduce the high unemployment rate. One is the divergence between the vacancies that are developing and the rate at which firms are filling these vacancies. With vacancies remaining, unfilled and firms remaining cautious about the economic outlook and leery of hiring, the increase in economic output or GDP growth of 3% expected on the optimistic side in 2011 is not translating into lower unemployment. Structural problems are causing a great deal of difficulty in reducing the jobless rate. The recession hit manufacturing and construction very hard. And those who worked in these industries are not those with the skills and training to take up jobs in health care and education or other similiar fields- here skill mismatches are the problem. Geographic factors and the property prices drop are creating additional barriers. About 25% of mortgage borrowers owe more than their property is worth, and their are fewer buyers in regions with depressed job prospects like Michigan. There is a large increase in long term unemployment- over 27 weeks. Those out of work for more than 6 months see their skiils, job connections and confidence erode. A Brookings Institution paper estimates that this rise in long term unemployment by itself can cause labor market recovery to take twice as long as after the 1982 recession under Reagan, when unemployment reached a high of 10.8% and took 2 years to get back to 7.5%. Add to this the fact that a lot of jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009, with a six percentage increase in unemployment in a short period unmatched by anything since the Great Depression, with long term unemployed reaching 6.5 millon or nearly half of the total. And the 3% growth rate estimated by the government is anything but certain. It is questioned by the IMF as a stretch. This does not take into account the problems in the banking sector, as home equity loans gone bad show up on their balance sheets in latter part of 2010. According to a CreditSights report (see the US economy in 2010 in Group search for more information on this) with estimated losses of $33 billion. A struggling banking sector and tighter credit will add a structural dimension from the banking sector to the wobbly hiring. The "muddle through" approach to banking problems of the Obama administration in tackling bank's bad debt will continue to pose risks....

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Spain's foreign minister Alfonso Dastis says Spanish authorites may have not realized the extent to which the situation in Catalonia would get out of control with the actions by separatists towards fragmentation. He admitted Spain's government may have been naive in tackling the situation and anticipating the response. Reports of excessive use of force by Spanish police may have exacerbated the situation. Spain may not have realized separatists would declare independence.

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The addiction to credit cards in the USA for a generation that has never seen tough times is siilar to the addiction to credit in the UK. See the link to this. 11.8 million credit card accounts are delinquent and forclosure filings were above 2 million last year 2007.

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Attorney General Sessions says the driver of the car who drove into protesters could be prosecuted in a number of ways including for a hate crime. The protest was against a white supremacist rally in Charlottesville. A car driven by 20 year old James Alex Fields drove into protesters injuring 19 and killing one woman. The local charges being made are for hit and run, malicious wounding, and the Justice Department is conducting its own probe. The comments by Sessions contrasted with the statement blaming both sides by president Trump, which led to strong criticism in the media and by the business community.

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Speaking at Ulster University president Biden says peace and opportunity go together.  "It is upto us to keep this going, to keep building on the work that has been done every day for the last 25 years. To sustain the peace unleash this incredible economic opportunity, which is just the beginning." The US is stepping in with action. Joseph Kennedy III, the Special envoy to Northern Ireland will lead a trade delegation of US companies to Northern Ireland later this year. Biden also called for the effective devolved government to be restored to bring greater opportunity to this region. It is important to remember as this WSJ report amply shows that president Biden has been an unrelenting champion on the Good Friday Agreement. That it is there today and the Irish border remains in the Irish Sea after Brexit owes much to the personal effort of Mr. Biden from before his election as president to this day and this visit. It is also a measure of the kind of man and the kind of president Mr. Biden is. Keeping his personal ties to Ireland.  ...

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As winter approaches pollution reaches dangerous levels in New Delhi causing a public health emergency. Millions of anti-pollution masks are now distributed at schools, colleges, hospitals and local markets. As the weather cools a thick haze from car emissions and coal power plants builds up over New Delhi making it hard to see. The cool weather appears to trap the pollutants in northern India against the Himalayan mountains creating a stifling haze. Construction dust and smoke from paddy crop burned in the Punjab adds to the problem. This year it is getting worse than ever. Pollution levels are about 20 times what is considered healthy by the WHO. The air quality index hit 494 on November 3, 2019. Some parts of the city hit 1000 on the index. Over 500 is considered dangerous and "hazardous" to health. The government of Delhi and the state and federal authorites have taken some action to close schools, ban work at construction sites, implemented odd even license plates rule for cars entering New Delhi. A survey shows about 40% of residents of New Delhi wanted to move to some other city, and 16% want to travel this time of the year to escape pollution. ...

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Imagine UK general elections July 4, France now set for June 30 July 7 for National Assembly, and the US on November 5. The French election is now set after EU elections showed a now unpopular Macron party losing badly to Marine Le Pen's National Rally party in EU elections. Macron created En Marche in 2017 as his way of renergizing French parties by bringing in younger people that contested and won 2 presidential elections. On economic issues of fairness for workers and dignity France is deeply divided as working class has suffered as in the US with some of the disaffected moving to Le Pen and some to Socialist parties led by Melenchon. Melenchon supporters helped Macron win in the last presidential elections even though his policies have veered to continue policies that did not favor the working class. Macron hopes to bring the Republican right party back into French politics for the Assembly election. France has a presidential system so the July 7 assembly election would give Macron a chance to appoint a prime minister from the Republican party of Nicholas Sarkozy. A similar situation exists in the UK after Conservatives failed and a big shift to Labor is seen for July 4th. ...

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Jordan Bardella,  age 28 years, is the youngest proposed candidate ever for prime minister of a G-7 country. The US Constitution says the presidential candidate, the head of government, has to be 35 years old, setting an age limit. No such age limit is set in the French Constitution for the Fifth Republic setup by Charles De Gaulle in 1958- a French citizen over age 18 years is allowed to stand for president. The current prime minister of France Gabriel Attal is 35 years old, appointed by president Macron. Macron ran for president at age 38 years, had experience as a cabinet member in the Economics ministry of Francois Hollande. Attal was Minister of Public Accounts and Public Action in the Elisabeth Borne government in 2022, and Minister of Education and Youth in Borne's government reshuffle in 2023. Jordan Bardella lacks any experience in government and most of his time was spent in representing his district in the National Assembly and in party positions. As the RN is unlikely to get an absolute majority in the National Assembly Bardella by saying he would not take up PM position without an absolute majority is also aware of this lack of experience and an astonishingly young age. ...

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Dulles with closeness to Churchill assumed a benevolent perception of the British Empire in Asia even with the enormous suffering and lack of development in China and India from the policies of the British. Such perceptions continued under Kissinger/Nixon, and Reagan/Rumsfeld. John Foster Dulles was Eisenhower's Secretary of State during the Cold War. He stated his ideas in Foreign Affairs in 1957 that were colored heavily by the China conflict (1949) Korean conflict (1950)  the Vietnam conflict (1954), the Hungarian Revolution (1956), and the struggle with the Soviet Union. Many of his ideas continued through the 1960's to the 1980's determining US policy in Vietnam, towards China and India, and in Rumsfeld's policies in the Middle East that involved the US in local and religious wars.  Dulles sought to respond to the aspirations of colonized nations in Asia - China, India, Vietnam- but lacked an understanding of the hundreds of years of colonial rule and suppression of freedom, increasing poverty by lack of investment in education, health and industry, faced by these countries in dealings with the British Empire.    ...

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German defense forces Bundeswehr at 182,000 soldiers and 60,000 civilian employees will add 60,000 through voluntary enlistments as more men are willing to consider service in the defense forces. A look at a young man of 27 years enlisting in Erfurt, Germany after working in healthcare administration for 7 years. He says he has benefitted a lot from free education and wants to give back to the country. An internship got him interested and after talking to a friend. Quietly SDP's Boris Pistorius at Defense and CDU's chancellor Merz are changing Germany's Bundeswehr and its capabilities as Germany sees its new role in the European Union.

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UK prime minister Starmer gets new members for his cabinet after resignation of Angela Rayner as deputy prime minster and Minister for Housing. Peter Kyle is new Business Secretary and Steve Reed the new Housing Minister. After winning in a landslide with the Conservative vote being split between Reform UK and the Conservative party, the Labour party has struggled to win voter support in local government elections. The Reform UK is now ahead of Labour in polls with Labour seen as not taking a tough line on illegal migration or not walking the talk of a tough line at the elections in 2024 to fight the illegal smuggling of migrants across the Channel.

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Former finance minister Peer Steinbruck will be the SPD candidate for chancellor of Germany in the 2013 elections. He is is trusted in Germany for his economic experience and handling of the economy during 2008-2009, especially with the eurozone crisis worsening. Helmut Schmidt, a former chancellor has endorsed Steinbruck. He could draw some right wing support from Merkel. Merkel is personally popular in Germany but the CDU has lost elections in key states, and its partner the Free Democrats is considered weak.

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Perceptions of Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping in China. The image of Jinping as one who stands up for ordinary Chinese and opposes corrupt officials is promoted in Chinese media. His visit to a small fast food place in Beijing, the Qingfeng Steamed Bun Shop, where he paid for the food, and took it to a folding table, is shown repeatedly on Chinese media. The cult of personality did not appeal to Communist leader Deng Xiaoping following two decades of a personality cult for leader Mao created by incessant propaganda. Under Hu Jintao, Jinping's predecessor the effacement was complete with the leadership taking a very low profile, and emphasizing scientific progress and technological development under a system setup by Deng's successor, Zemin, a former mayor of Shanghai. Some aspects of the old Mao era depiction of a strong leader who cared about China's interests above all else and was with the ordinary people, farmers, workers and students, is being revived today. It fits Xi Jinping's profile of a leader who spent time in the countryside with farmers, which happened when he was assigned at the age of 15 to Shanxi province during the Cultural Revolution period of the late 1960's- what Harvard professor Elizabeth Perry calls his adolescent socialization period- and his views of the positive role played by the Communist party, inspite of the excesses of the Party and the persecution suffered under Mao by Jinping's father when he fell out of favor. The link to Jinping's Hebei province shows the difficulties suffered of growing up during the Cultural Revolution, and his personal struggles including efforts to get into Tsinghua University as his father fell out of favor with Mao. As a result Xi has a inbuilt wariness for political positions. The story shows considerable ironies as Xi's father, a revolutionary war veteran from Hebei province, fell out of favor first with Mao and for a second time for criticism of Deng's crackdown at Tienanmen Square. Just to survive and grow during so many changes from the fifties China to the twenty first century China, shows remarkable resilience and strength, which is why Singapore's leader Lee Juan Yew sees much emotional stability in Xi Jinping. Is the personality building effort a Communist Party propaganda version of the careful nurturing of image done in western media for favored persons, or a revival of an older Mao type personality building effort? Xi's own wariness suggests it may be the former with some aspects from China's own past, as he promotes the Communist Party's claim to lead China for another generation by reducing corruption and furthering technological progress....

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A transcript of remarks by Ben Benrnake as Fed Governor on Dec. 9, 2003, at meeting of the Federal Open Market Comittee which makes monetary policy in the USA. Bernanke is teling his colleagues here that it would be amistake to choke off growth unnecessarily by raising rates, that critics who say inflation is a threat are not well informed, and that the Open Market Comittee should remain patient. Here he points out that the large decline in the share of the population that is working -with one survey showing household employment at 2.9 million jobs below normal at that time- suggesting that employment could rise significantly before seeing pressure on wages and unit labor costs. With the underutilization of labor, the withdrawal of people from the full time labor force, and increase in parttime employment, there are todfay anumber of changes ocurring in the labor markets that build additional slack into the system from what the unemployment rate of 9% today would suggest. A similiar case could be made today with factory capacity utilization at 68% and dropping, and manufacturing hard hit and seeing a permanent downsizing in industries like automobiles. What about raw materials prices? Bernanke shows agraph of historical data, that suggest convincingly he says, even very large movements of raw materials prices appear to have muted effects on intermediate goods prices and no discernible effects on final goods inflation. The reason for this is that raw materials prices are only asmall portion oftotal costs, and unit labor costs are a far larger factor in inflation determination that raw materials prices. And at that time as is happening today wage growth is slow or negative. What about the dollar falling in value making imports more expensive, which we face today? Here Bernanke says that asimilar anlysis applies to the dollar. Large movements of the dollar he says, translate into smaller movements against the U.S. trade-weighted basket of currencies, and into smaller effects on import prices because of imperfect pass-throughs. And he goes on to say that the nonoil import prices, in turn, are are a relatively modest part of the overall price index, making the ultimate effects quite small. This analysis by Bernanke of the impact of rising raw materials prices and falling dollar having a muted effect, and the important role slack and underutilization of labor in the labor markets play in inflation, helps respond to critics like Laffer and others who say inflation is a threat and call for changes in the policy course the Fed has set....

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Support in Germany for a global corporate minimum tax rate, which stops the race to the bottom in tax rates that starves essential infrastructure of financing. US president Biden made this a part of his effort for $2 trillion in spending to renovate decaying American infrastructure. Infrastructure that has deteriorated and suffered over four decades.

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Indian cricket coach Ravi Shastri says Hardik Pandya is the cleanest striker of the ball he has seen in the game. He praised Pandya for his game awareness. Pandya scored a career best 92 and 210 runs in 3 ODI's against Australia. Shastri also had good words for the maiden appearance of bowler Natarajan.

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The view from Germany on Trump's economic plan and the need for changes by his advisors. DW.com's Wenkel says Trump needs to understand that 80% of job losses in recent years have come from not from globalization, but automation and higher productivity, rationalization. He says higher tariffs on Mexico could backfire.

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The legacy of U.S. president George H.W. Bush is a four year presidency that benefited from the growth under president Reagan and low inflation but was cut short in a loss to Bill Clinton in 1992, Persistent budget deficits and high unemployment were seen as a result of the supply side deficits Mr. Bush supported as vice president under Reagan, but derided as "voodoo economics" as president breaking his pledge of no new taxes to cut the deficit. The collapse of the savings and loan banks with poor lending happened during his administration, and was handled by Treasury officials including current Fed chairman Jerome Powell. Mr. Bush is chiefly remembered for his negotiating the issues leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification of Germany. His handling of the Iraq war left a unstable situation in Iraq that led to a major problem for his son George Bush who became president after Bill Clinton, leading to a second and protracted costly war in Iraq. The effects of that conflict led to the changes in the Republican Party with its new leader Mr. Trump and a U.S. non-interventionist policy in foreign conflicts. Greg Ip points to the defict reduction as a positive contribution under the elder Bush, yet much of these gains were wasted in the costly Iraq conflict with U.S. hasty intervention. ...

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The new young voter demographic in India's 2014 general elections with 100 million voters voting for the first time. The election tilts to the BJP and leader Narendra Modi as he promises economic expansion similiar to that of his home state of Gujarat.

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Friedman says Obama's 2012 presidential campaign lacks bold vision, a failure to articulate tangible achievements, and owes too much to campaign consultants. He describes it as being developed in test tube fashion. The failure to embrace and strongly advocate his own presidential commission's Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan, which could be coupled with long term investment in the productive potential of the U.S. economy, shows the lack of courage to prepare a plan going forward. It is likely to cost support of independent, center and center-right voters in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

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Experts say wisdom is important for well-being the older you become. About 150,000 people are over 85 years age in New York City. This series in the NYT in Dec. 2015 looks at people in the city, their lives, and their attitudes to life. At this age as other physical abilities decline it is wisdom that makes up for this. By being positive about their aging and adapting to their limitations older people make better lives. Laura Carstensen, director Stanford Center on Longevity, says this period can be better than people think for seniors who have gratitude, forgiveness, calm and appreciation in greater degrees from 50 years to 70 years, continuing into the later years. Anger and stress being replaced by conveying gratitude. The positive attitudes to aging also affect memory and heart disease. One of the people covered Ping Wong, 90 years, plays mah-jongg with friends every day and does everyday activities that make her happy. Jonas Mekas, 93 years, is a filmmaker who continues his working activities- doing an exhibition in Brescia, Italy, publishing an anthology of his writings, and giving a lecture in Berlin on filmmaking. Mekas has an interesting philosophy of life- he says do what you are doing and don't think about it much, it will all end sometime, just do something good for humanity that someone else can pickup from you when you are gone, which is normal. A sense of optimism prevails in these lives. Says Mekas its important to not give up on the idea of paradise....

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A biographical account of Nigeria's acting president Goodluck Jonathan, who brings an academic background as a biologist with a doctorate in zoology and is a former environmental official. Nigeria faces huge problems of corruption, north-south tensions, and lacks basic infrastructure especially power generation capacity. He brings humility and is associated with environmentalists. He was selected as vice president because of his clean government credentials.

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Critics say president Macron's appointment of an obscure official, a mayor of a town in the foothills of the Pyrenees (Prades with 6000 people), is a sign that he plans to be both prime minister and president for the remainder of his term. By selecting someone from the right wing Le Republicain party of Mr. Sarkozy, Mr. Macron now hopes to win reelection in 2020 with a shift to the right. His popularity at 35% is way below that of Edouard Philippe the outgoing prime minister who is at 50% of those polled recently.  Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Macron represent a self focused presidency.

 

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U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney is questioned about the depth of his beliefs by John Harwood, at the November 9, 2011, Oakland University, Michigan, televised presidential debate. Harwood asked Romney if his positions on issues "are rooted in something deeper than the fact that you are running for office." Romeny's response was that he had been married for 42 years, and "been in the same church all my life," and worked at the same firm Bain & Co. and Bain Capital, for 25 years, that he was a man of steadiness and constancy." On key economic issues such as revival of the auto industry and foreclosures, both major issues in Michigan, Romney continued to maintain that the loans made by the government to Chrysler and GM were a mistake. Oakland University is only half a mile from Chrysler headquarters. This view was challenged by Rick Snyder, Republican governor of the state of Michigan, who said- "it wasn't just one or two companies that were at risk, but the entire national suply chain." On foreclosures Romney maintained his position that the government should let the market work, even if this means millions of foreclosures. Romney said: "Markets work. When you have government play its heavy hand, markets blow up and people get hurt," putting the blame for the housing crisis on Fannie Me and Freddie Mac, agencies with a government guarantee that encouraged indiscriminate housing loans. ...