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The sense of conflict in China and US relations may not have developed in the shaping of Xi Jinping's thinking till the emergence of Mr. Trump. Jinping comes into the China shaped by Deng and Zemin after the collapse of the purely Communist experiment with modernization without access to western technologies and capital, and the experiment with American help. It is only after the realization that the Communist party had lost its sense of purpose in these years leading to the Bo Xilai episode, and the rhetoric of Mr. Trump against China, that the idea of first friction and then conflict emerged. The initial idea for Jinping before Trump was that this has worked for China- the experiment with the cooperation of the US in modernizing China. Trump's rhetoric and the Republican party's rhetoric about China stealing American jobs and technology after 2015 may have been targeted to win the election but it had an unintended effect after the tariffs of shaping Jinping's thinking about the future for China. Between the Bo Xi Lai episode in 2012 when it appeared he would be attempting to manipulate the Communist party's direction in unknown and unpredictable ways, Bo's trial in 2013 and the anticorruption campaign and the 2015 election campaign of Mr. Trump in the US, there must have been much soul searching in the party that shaped Jinping's thinking about the future for China after all the tumult of the 20th century starting with the Boxer rebellion in 1901. Stability is highly prized in China particularly for modernization. This perspective is important to grasp for world peace to be preserved with different coexisting perspectives about the world based on national as well as shared interests in issues such as climate change. US after its own disastrous experiment with capitalism that led to widening inequality of the kind not seen since Lincoln in the 1850's, the 2009 crisis, and the shift of jobs to China under a purely capitalist idea of how economies should function, had its own national interests in jobs, local manufacturing and Made in the USA. Once this process was underway after 2016 and grasped by president Biden after 2020, and supply chain reconstruction made the goal after covid, the US and China were on divergent economic and political paths.   That rethinking by Xi Jinping is not over as it may still be going on. The war in Ukraine may even convince Jinping and China's No. 2 leader Li Keqiang who studied the US constitution and American urbanization under mentors when he was in college, that Russia's prolongation of the war in Ukraine does not serve the interests of China. That risking relations with the European Union as Russia prolongs the war and finds itself in the complex problems of  a war it started, is not in China's interests in setting its own course for the future. ...

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On World Soil Day DW.com provides this reminder about how important soil is to our life. It is a reminder too of the all things that are really important during the pandemic. Few remember the words of FDR in 1937 during the Dust Bowl days in America when overplowing and displacement of prairie grasslands that anchored the topsoil reduced once-fertile plains to parched, barren wasteland that were swept by dust storms. This was brought to life in Steinbeck's novel Grapes of Wrath. American president Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) said in 1937 that "a nation that destroys its soil, destroys itself."   This is true for India and all parts of the world, now more than ever. The promotion of ancient grains by Mr. Modi in India helps in the way that crops can be varied so that the soil can regenerate itself, and is not drained of nutrients with one or two crops such as rice and wheat. A 2015 study by University of Sheffield in UK showed that one third of the world's arable land  was lost to pollution and erosion in the last 40 years. That study says it takes 500 years to form one inch of topsoil. Countries like India cannot afford land degradation and Modi's emphasis on improved practices in agriculture away from pesticides and careful use of chemical fertilizer, with natural substitutes in traditional agriculture taking precedence, cannot come at a better time. Healthy soils also create carbon sinks storing greenhouse gases and reducing climate change. A square meter of soil can contain 10,000 different species of worms, insects, bacteria and fungi, with a single gram home to a billion bacteria. Rich fertile earth that nourishes ecosystems is a world apart from the dust storm swept land that led to crop failures in Depression period America, leading to farmers migrating and poverty, Some of the agricultural practices that promote biodiversity are more labor intensive, and suited to India, and can actually increase agricultural production. With the added advantage of produce being organic. It can increase crop yields through better biodiversity, to yield 2.3 billion metric tons of additional crop yields per year worldwide, worth 1.24 trillion euros, (imagine that) according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, cited by DW.com. For Indian farmers this is a great opportunity in agriculture to improve agriculture and increase incomes. It is also an opportunity for farmers everywhere, in Europe, America, other parts of Asia, Latin America and Africa. ...

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The probability of rate cuts by the Fed increases with decline in core inflation even as inflation for the year is 2.9%. Higher inflation is because of 4% increases monthly of gas prices. The oil price increase is seen as a temporary factor with longer term inflation headed down.

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Good social ties and connections are important for healthy living. This is the theme of most of the books on aging well.

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Rising inflation at 20% in Iran in Dec 2011. Cash payments by the government to soften the impact of lower subsidies on fuel and other products brings more rials into circulation, leading to higher inflation. Sanctions are also affecting the economy. The rial has declined in value from 7000 rials to the dollar in October 2011 to 15,150 rials in December 2011, according to the Fars News Agency.

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With vaccine hesitancy in the US the goal of vaccinating a large part of the US population is still elusive. Less than half of the US population is fully vaccinated as of July 30. The vaccination rates in the US are now much slower than India even taking into account the population difference. The vaccination in India is at the rate of 4 to 5 million a day for the past week in India. In the US this report in The Guardian shows 4.7 million vaccinated in the past 2 weeks. On July 30 856,000 people were vaccinated in the US compared to over 5 million in India.  Newspaper reporting that encourages vaccine hesitancy people to delay getting vaccinated because of poorly reported headlines is adding to vaccine hesitancy in the US. This has led to much frustration at the White House. The threat of the Delta variant is making more people to take vaccination. Southern states are seeing a jump in vaccinations. Many prominent Republicans are now endorsing vaccination.  One of the problems in tackling the Delta variant is the confusing nature of the CDC guidance on masks. On May 13 CDC issued guidance saying masks were not necessary indoors and outdoors. Now 3 months later in July the CDC says the threat of Delta variant means mask wearing is essential particularly indoors because of the higher transmissibility of the delta variant.  ...

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This video report in WSJ says it is clear to see that rental is a better option for young people than buying at this time when home prices have gone up, and with it the monthly mortgage payment, in a way that is completely out of proportion to renting cost increase. The monthly mortgage payment increased between the second quarter of 2022 and the same quarter in 2021 by about 44%. Higher mortgage payments are a result of steeply higher home prices and higher mortgage rates. Buyers of homes also have higher property taxes in this situation. The median monthly rent payment went up by 10% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. There is a $600 difference between the median monthly payment for rent and the median monthly mortgage payment that can be invested by young people, says this report in WSJ, considering that home prices have peaked and are gradually coming down.

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Ringo Starr of the Beatles says he wrote the song "Hard Day's Night." He never has tried pizza or curry. His attitude to music is always play with someone in a group. He is indifferent to titles and knighthood. He feels at home in Nashville and LA.

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From 2007 to 2022 US electricity demand flattened with new energy efficient technologies. It is now poised to increase from 2022 to 2035 and the process is happening  with approval of new natural gas plants and new data centers, new manufacturing plants needing large amounts of renewable energy. This say Plumer and Popovich in NYT could very well upset president Biden's plans to get 100% of energy from renewables by 2035 and cut greenhouse gas emissions by half to tackle climate change. Utilities are moving ahead with putting up new natural gas plants, and new data centers are needed for the shift to remote work since 2020, electric automobile and chip making plants are coming up at a rapid pace. Without a sustained effort the climate change action needed may not take place with the long lead times to bring renewable solar, wind and other energy and put it in place for transmission. This report looks at the data centers coming up in Virginia and the EV manufacturing plants in Georgia as examples for the new demand and how it could upset plans for climate change action. ...

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One in three students in Germany live below the poverty line. A 5.75% increase in government support is lost in inflation. Melissa is a 23 year old student at the University of Bonn with just 25 euros a week for shopping on food in this story in Dw.com. This means living on potatoes, cottage cheese and vegetarian schnitzel. She gets  about 1000 euros a month, 750 euros from the government and 219 euros from her parents. Of this 400 euros go to rent, 300 for semester fees, 

A person is considered risking poverty living on 1251 euros a month. Government support is set at a maximum of 934 euros a month for students not living with parents.

 

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The role that Cushing, Oklahoma, and its 9 square miles of storage tanks for crude oil plays in the US oil price levels. How the oil inventories kept rising and new oil tanks kept being added because of the profits in futures from the $6 difference between today's oil price and the oil price some months into the future. Now the situation is in reverse because of the credit crunch their is less borrowed money available for this kind of trading, and suddenly there is a big depletion in oil stocks as some sellers had to sell stocks at Cushing to cover losses and others found it profitable to sell as prices were oil supplied now jumped higher. So there is a big depletion in oil stocks at Cushing and this affects prices of oil futures on the Nymex. In 1983 Cushing was designated by Nymex the New York Mercantile exchange as the official delivery point for its new futures contract on light, sweet crude. This Nymex price now serves as a global benchmark. this is the background behind how Cushing stocks levels in oil tanks has a disporportionate influence on Nymex oil price for futures. So speculative opportuntities for profit in the oil trading and storage combined with changing market conditions are creating a situation the depletion of oil in storage tanks that can create a surge in oil prices to still higher levels, because of lower inventory levels at Cushing....

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Unions and Labour's Starmer in local elections in 2026. With Labour shown in You.gov polls as losing half of its voters from the last general election with that lost voter scattered among Greens at 20% of it and Liberals getting 14%, the rest to other parties. Unions may look for an alternative if local elections lead to problems for Labour.

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Largest drone and missile attacks on Kviv and Lviv of the war on August 20 2025 soon after DJT meeting with Putin in Alaska and EU leaders meeting at White House. This has raised concerns that Russia is not seriously working to end the war. The lack of EU peacekeeping force acceptance by Russia poses serious obstacles to Ukraine or the EU supporting an agreement that has no safeguards. It means the war may continue for some time till both sides see no gains from continuing the war. Russia's position at this time is that territorial changes need to be made in eastern region.

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Germany avoided a recession with growth rate of 1.9% in 2022. Imports were higher with higher energy prices and the trade surplus fell from 175 billion euros to 79 billion euros. Trade surplus declined for 5th year in a row. Rising inflation dropped in November and December. Economy Minister Habeck (the Green party) has made a great effort to tackle the energy shortages in a way that Germany can avoid a recession.

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A bipartisan compromise in the U.S. Senate provides for a 30 day review of the Iran nuclear deal by Congress. The White House accepted this after enough Democrats favored the idea for the 67 votes to override a presidential veto.

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High level Swiss business team negotiators reach agreement with US for 15% tariffs in exchange for $200 billion in investment in US by 2028. One third of this investment has to take place in 2026. The Swiss business team met with DJT at the White House. 

Swiss will remove taxes on US beef and poultry exports. Swiss investments cited by trade negotiator Helene Artieda are plane maker Pilatus to build a US plant, and train maker Stadler to expand operations in Utah.

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The Guardian looks at Iran's role in the Hamas attack on Israel, and its intentions to prevent a deal betwen Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US that was being negotiated this month. It looks at the situation in the Middle East and the role of Egypt, Turkey, UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia in the crisis,  their historic role of supporting Palestinian rights and how their national interests have shifted over the last three decades to seek friendly relations with Israel, the EU and the US.

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In EU elections the German coalition parties of SPD, Greens and FDP barely get the vote percentage of the CDU/CSU of 30%. The SPD 13.9%, Greens 11.9% and FDP 5.2%. This is the lowest showing of the SPD. Much of the problems come from the SPD socialist democratic party that seeks to bring more social democracy by building infrastructure, public services as Biden is doing in the US, yet is prevented from doing this with the presence of the FDP which is against spending and seeks budget discipline as the charter of its party. The Finance minister Lindner is from the FDP. As a result the SPD and Greens are not able to do what they prmised in the last election to invest in infrastructure and public services. A visit to Germany shows this with the Deutsche Bahn, the rail stations with a dilapidated look as if built in the last century, trains late with old technology and less investment in maintenance. Not much construction is seen and public transport looks haggard and old. Germany's constitution makes investment difficult and court decisions limit spending or finding other sources for investment, the FDP acting as a brake on spending. The far right AfD vote was upto to15%. Without investment and offering a new vision of a modern Germany even after managing the energy crisis of which some of the fault lay with the way Merkel allowed over dependence on Russian supplies of oil and gas, even then the CDU is getting more of the vote. Another reason is the CDU under Leyen taking a strong stand on Ukraine with the SPD's history of maintaining better relations with Russia limiting its role in this crisis. As a result Germany under Scholz labors on with no solution to current problems requiring spending and investment. The next parliament election is in 2025. ...

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A significant portion of Apple services business including Safari payments app revenues is now at risk with changes in 2025. Google payments for search alone make up 19% of Apple's operating profit, says this report in WSJ.

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Stock markets have declined about 1% during the current banking crisis. This shows that the action taken by president Biden quickly taking over Silicon Valley Bank and closing Republic Bank is working. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the central banks of US, EU, Swiss, worked together to take immediate action. Swiss central bank and the government stepped in to arrange the backing for UBS to takeover Credit Suisse bank.  The crisis affected market sectors in differing ways. Information technology stocks were up 5.7%, energy stocks went down by 7%, bank stocks declined 6%, sensitive materials sector stocks went down by 3.5%. Risks remaining are that the loss of confidence in regional banks could affect lending. The Fed's policy of containing inflation by raising interest  rates could continue say experts leading to information tech stocks losing any gains. Any drop in the price of oil could help the economies of the US and EU, India, Japan and China. By March 15 prices of US crude had dropped for West Texas Intermediate benchmark to $67. Any drop of prices to the $60 level increases growth in the EU, US, China, India and Japan, reducing chances of a recession. ...