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Britain's Treasury chief Osborne faces a difficult period as the economy shows flat growth for 2012 and 2013. The targets he set for eliminating the structural deficit or budget gap by April 2017 may need to be shifted to 2018. The target for net debt to decline as a percentage of GDP by 2015 may also be unachievable if growth is flat in the coming year. An accounting change in how profit from the Bank of England's bond buying program are shown is designed to reduce Treasury's borrowing and bring Britain closer to this target. Osborne says Britain's actions for austerity measures, spending cuts and increasing taxes have helped keep interest rates low to pay off debt.

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This BBC independent review into its economic coverage by Dilnot and Blastland covered by The Guardian, shows that economics has been badly presented and mostly misunderstood in the culture and the media, leading to errors in policy that hurt workers and families in Britain and the US. Tory spending cuts in Britain have led to a lost 400 billion pounds in growth since 2010, says The Guardian citing the TUC report. Britain's GDP would be 2 trillion pounds higher today if the pre-1979 growth rate was maintained, says TUC. This editorial says about the framing of the debt and spending in the culture and media- "It is an anti-democratic bias that shuts people out of discussion about their lives and their society."

 

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Debate in Germany over whether there should be exception to the minimum wage agreement of 8.50 euros per hour. The head of the federal employment agency, Heinrich Alt, says a universal minimum wage would reduce incentives for young people to join vocational training. The new labor minister, Social Democrat Andrea Nahles, says "there will be no exceptions, notwithstanding all the escape fantasies." The Social Democrats insisted on the minimum wage to win support from rank and file working class members after losing support in its own base with the increase in the low wage sector in Germany. Unemployment in Germany is less than 5%, but this comes with an increase in lower wage workers as part of the reforms under the Social Democrat Schroeder administration when unemployment was close to 10%. Economists say the increase in wages would increase weak consumer spending in Germany and increase imports from other eurozone countries. In 2011 the share of the German population making less than the new minimum wage of 8.50 euros an hour, according to the German Institute for Economic Research, is- for former East Germany 27%, for former West Germany 15%, for ages under 24 years 44%, for ages 25 to 60 years 15%. This does not affect the manufacturing sector in East Germany as wages in the sector are above 8.50 euros. The other problem is that wages appear to be declining in Germany, with wages decreasing by 0.3% in October 2013, according to the Federal Statistical Office. ...

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Spain's cabinet announced new changes to labor laws to provide incentives to business to hire. Spain has some of the most restrictive labor laws in Europe and high unemployment. The unemployment rate reached 23% in December 2011, and about half of the people under 26 are unemployed. The cost of downsizing is so high in Spain that Spain's representative on the executive committe of the European Central Bank, Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, says companies prefer to close rather than downsize. The World Bank has singled out the labor laws as one of the main reasons for Spain's rising unemployment rate. New rules will reduce severance payments to 33 days per year of employment from 45 days. Severance packages will be reduced to a maximum of 24 months from 48 months. To encourage companies to hire permanent workers and depend less on temporary workers the new rules say employers must switch temporary workers to permanent contracts after two instead of three years. As an incentive for companies with a maximum of 50 employees to hire young people the rules give a 3000 euros corporate tax break for each new person hired under age 30. If the hired person was jobless he can still collect 25% of previous unemployment benefits for a limited period with 50% of the unemployment benefits going to the employer. Companies having losses for three consecutive quarters are allowed to pay less in severance payments- only 20 days per year of employment. Companies will now find it easier to leave collective bargaining agreements and make deals with their own staff. Luis Garicano, a professor at the London School of Economics, says this is a good step forward. He finds missing from the new rules subsidies to train young and unemployed people given the high dropout rates in Spanish schools. The government approved the rules by decree, but they will be discussed in the Spanish parliament. The government of prime minister Mariano Rajoy was recently elected with an overwhelming majority in parliament. This makes making major changes different from the process in Italy where a consensus has to be established....

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Extraordinary pictures taken by a photographer from Edinburgh who left Britain for Singapore and Far East in 1862 at the age of 25 years. He had worked as an apprentice with an optical manufacturer and learned photography. What is astounding is that this was the time when Japan was opening up to the ideas and technology from Europe with the Meiji restoration around 1871, China in transition under the Manchu dynasty which was to collapse in 1912 ending the monarchy. A major rebellion happened with the Taiping rebellion in southern China in 1854 that lasted till 1862. The Taiping rebellion was against the Manchu dynasty as a foreign dynasty imposed on Han people in China, and the result of famines, difficult conditions for peasants, opium addiction, poor economic prospects for a large population. Mao considered the Taiping rebellion as an unfinished revolution which the Communists continued this time against other foreign rulers the Japanese and European colonies in China,  and the Nationalist rule of Chinag-kai-Shek with corruption and wide disparities of incomes. John Thomson took pictures of China in the 1870's, now in the Wellcome collection and displayed in an exhibition at Heriot Watt University in Britain. Women and children in Guangdong, Canton and Beijing are shown in these pictures of China. Between 1872 and 1942 is a period of only 70 years with tumultuous events and huge changes in China. By 1944-1949 Communists controlled vast parts of China with Mao's forming of the People's Republic of China for the Chinese people, free of foreign influence, corruption, and opium trade of the British. And again 40 years later by 1989 China using a market economy to change China into a modern nation as advanced as Japan, Europe and America. For India the new People's Republic of China under Mao also brought the PLA army to the borders of India. In 1950 China invaded Tibet at Chamdo, and in 1951 annexed the country under a 15 Point Agreement making it a region of China. With that invasion India and China face each other for the first time in the Himalayas across a border stretching east to west for thousands of miles. A war in 1962 was followed by incursions across the border in 2020 in the Ladakh region. Both sides build infrastructure on either side of the Line of Control that stretches for 3500 kilometres. Most of the Indian people remain ignorant of the changes happening in China from the Manchus to the Communists. Most Chinese have little knowledge of the changes happening in India from British period to the post independence period under Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi , and further to the changes for modernization happening under Mr. Modi. Large populations of over 1 billion people facing each other but knowing little about each other in one of the strange situations in the world, and armies building infrastructure on either side of the line of control. ...

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The new generation of Communist party leaders that takes over from Hu Jintao and Wen Biao. Chongqing region's party chief, Bo Xilai is one of the leaders expected to be part of the senior communist leadership, along with Li Keqiang as prime minister and Xi Jinping as president. Xi and Bo are sons of communist party veterans from the Long March. Chongqing was the main base of the Communist party in the 1930's and 1940's, as Mao and the communists fought the Nationalists and then the Japanese. Bo has suppressed the influence of Mafia elements in the region, and is campaigning for a place on the Politburo's Standing Committee with a call for a return to Maoist values of "conscientiousness." Chongqing's state companies are supporting a project launched by Bo in 2010 to build 800,0000 subsidized apartments in 3 years, with an investment of $18.5 billion. This comes as income and wealth gaps in the country are widening and housing is becoming increasingly unaffordable for ordinary wage earners....

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A CNN poll shows 62% of Independents support the indictment of Donald Trump. John McCormick of the WSJ talks to Republicans in different states to understand how they feel about Mr. Trump after the indictment. The party is split -with some Republicans seeing that Trump has too much baggage to win in 2024. They feel the party should try another candidate. Mr. Trump is seen as having some positives but as having an abrasive personality, causing tension, and being too divisive to be a good president. There is a sense that it is time to move on to someone else.

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PM Modi attends the 125th anniversary of Founders day of the Scindia School of Gwalior which was founded in 1897 at the turn of the century when India was going through an awakening. Gwalior in Madhya Pradesh played a part in the War of Independence in 1857. More recently it was the home of former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in the large Hindi speaking region at the heart of India. India's Minister of Civil Aviation and Steel is Jyotiraditya Scindia whose royal family founded the school during the British Empire.

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A red flag in the Amazon which stores 123 billion metric tons of carbon, and which pulls millions of tons of carbon out of the atmosphere each year. Successive droughts every 5 years are about to turn parts of the Amazon forest around Manaus into savannah. The river Negro, an Amazon tributary, is at its lowest level in its recorded history after 5 months of drought. The University of Exeter Global Systems Institute's study on Amazon tipping points shows that parts of the Amazon forest could reach a point where they could not recover.

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This WSJ report by Collins, Belkin, Parti and Whyte takes an indepth look at the issues surrounding anti-semitism on US campuses, in particular UC Berkeley, U Penn, Harvard, Columbia universities. It looks at what happened in the first term and how with the Gaza war the issues of antisemitism on US campuses increased and the DJT administration, Education Secretary McMahon, Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon, and domestic advisers in the Trump administration, decided it was time to rein in the antisemitism seen at top ranked universities.  On the campus of UC Berkeley in Feb 2019, Hayden Williams was a young conservative activist who set up a table to recruit students to Turning Point USA. He was punched in the face in an argument which attracted media attention. DJT said at the time that "we got to do something about this." In meetings with Hayden Trump discussed actions such as cutting off federal funding to universities with free speech violations. This is the genesis of the current action says WSJ where Harvard faces cut offs of funding for lack of action to control antisemitism on campus and the president asking Harvard to stop enrollment of international students. Some international students have been involved in the activism tending towards antisemitism.  There is also the sense that some universities are admitting far too many, as many as 40% of the enrolment, from overseas students- a form of neglect of local American students, who now have less access to the resources that the federal government is giving to these universities which they should be entitled to as Americans. U Chicago, Harvard and Penn are in the 30%+ range for overseas students and Columbia around 40%. ...

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In an unbelievable result Germany loses to North Macedonia 2-1 and fall into third place in their group in European Cup Qualifiers. Coach Joachim Loew ends a 15 year stint for Germany in 2021. Christiano Renaldo of Portugal scores a goal with the ball going past the finishing line, which is not allowed because of a lack of VAR goalline technology at the stadium, in a game against Serbia. 

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German chancellor Scholz and Canadian prime minister Trudeau sign an agreement in Newfoundland for exporting Canadian green hydrogen energy to Germany in just 3 years. Canada is seen as a major supplier to Germany for energy in the medium term including LNG. Newfoundland is the base for a green hydrogen plant. Windy areas which are not densely populated are considered ideal for production of green hydrogen, which is why Newfoundland was chosen.

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The US midterm elections as seen from Europe. This headline in FR24 says Mr. Trump's grip over the party is waning. In Pennsylvania's crucial Senate seat Trump supported an affluent TV health show host Mr. Oz who failed to beat a small town mayor Mr. Fetterman who turned this into a scrappy contest in every county in Pennsylvania. Fetterman saying he would fight for workers and families every step of the way. In race after race for governors and for Congress many of the more Trump loyal candidates did not do as well against Democrats who had learned that they need to put up a determined and scrappy fight for the working class and families.

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This report in the WSj shows the work of 477 on the ground workers and economists at government agency Bureau of Labor Statistics. These workers track changing prices on hundreds of thousands of goods and services every month. This work adds up to form the Consumer Price Index which shapes policy of central banks on inflation and cost of living increases for Social Security, government policy on inflation. Thus report looks at one day in the life of Ms. Mascitis, 50, as a price BLS price checker, visiting an auto mechanic shop for the cost of a rear brake job, full brake replacement, and a visit to grocery stores where she sees problems of shrinkage in packaging that affect price. 

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The new excitement of scenic train travel. The Manhattan New York to Burlington, Vermont, on Amtrak's Ethan Allen Express takes you through the Hudson River Valley and to the shores of Lake Champlain with its fresh mountain air away from the hustle and bustle of New York City. It is an 8 hour ride to this lively university town in the north country near Canada. "I like to see it lap the Miles/ And lick the Valleys Up/And then around a Pile of Mountains," says Emily Dickinson of train rides even in a period of steam engine driven trains. Today's trains with glass around you are even better for the view of Nature.

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The US economy declined by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2022 or 0.9% on an annualized basis. What does this mean? NYT provides a look with a breakdown of where this comes from. Business and residential construction went down by 11-12% as they are interest rate sensitive sectors and the Fed has raised interest rates by 0.75 of a percentage point twice in 12 months. Yet consumer spending was holding up and increased by 1% in the second quarter. 

Fed chairman Powell told a conference yesterday that he still sees a pickup in spending in the second half of 2022 as buyer balance sheets are good, the labor market is strong, and wages are increasing.

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Bringing together all ministries and parts of government into an integrated planning and execution sought under the Indian prime minister's Gati Shakti Master plan for infrastructure is likely to bring a change in the culture of ministries and government at every level in India. Before for the years since independence in 1947 no attention was given to this idea of one team of many teams all working under one master plan at every level of government, much of the activity was conducted for development in separate silos. This massive culture change will accelerate development and ensure every rupee or dollar is spent to get the most out of infrastructure building efforts that benefit the public in India.

 

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A short video showing how the Sustainable Development Goal of Clean Water for every rural household brings Swaraj to India's villages. Clean safe and easily accessible through home tap water for all rural households is the goal of the Har Ghar Jal Mission with target date of 2024. India will have modernized by 2035 as a nation but never could one forget the humble beginnings with Har Ghar Jal and Swacch Bharat- of clean drinking water and sanitation as basic human rights. Setting the pace for all of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Japan has embraced the UN's 17 SDG's, so has India in its own way, both setting an example for the rest of the world.

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Xi Jinping's 3 day visit to Russia and his meetings with Mr. Putin. China presents the trip as an effort to start peace talks between Russia and Ukraine based on its proposals. China is also affected by the war in Ukraine as it works against China's recovery from the economic effects of the pandemic. China sees Russia as a partner in what it sees as a multipolar world, yet it is too close to Germany and the European Union, relations which provide it with access to western technology needed for its continuing growth. China does not want to disrupt the relationship with Germany and the European Union over the war in Ukraine.

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Tesla at $24 per hour faces a challenge when Toyota which increased wages by 9% for non unionized labor pays $34 per hour for assembly line workers. Toyota did this after the new settlement with the UAW for 146,000 workers at Ford, GM and Stellantis. What it means is that instead of setting the wage standard Tesla will be a less attractive option for workers as other foreign automakers Nissan, VW and BMW increase their wages. The UAW union does not have to organize at Tesla for fair wages as Tesla's 20,000 workers would become the lowest paid, and least attractive option for workers. And Tesla would become an exception to fair wages in a cost of living crisis.

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Election of Democratic governors in two southern states could mark a shift as white voters shift back to Biden and Democrats. One year before presidential elections 2 Governors races in Kentucky and Mississippi, mayoral elections in Philadelphia, assembly elections in Virginia, and  an effort to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution in Ohio, offer insights into voter sentiment. In Kentucky  a popular Democratic governor faces a challenge from a candidate endorsed by Mr. Trump, and in Mississippi a scandal affects the reelection of a Republican governor who faces a challenge from a cousin of singer Elvis Presley. In Philadelphia a Democrat is nearly assured of a win as mayor. Republicans are looking to gain the assembly in Virginia.

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The first presidential debate with Clinton and Trump is moderated by Lester Holt. The debate included an exchange on Trump's tax returns, policing in inner cities, and national security. The debate was broadcast by all television stations and was watched by over 100 million viewers. Trump made three times the interruptions made by Clinton. The birther issue raised by Trump also came up, and was cited as a "hurtful lie" by Clinton as it persisted long after the birth certificate information was seen by the public. In one exchange Clinton told Trump when he referred to all the infrastructure that had not been built, that one of the reasons was he had not payed taxes.

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In the closing days of the Harris vs Trump election campaign in October 2024, Trump attends a rally in Madison Square Garden in New York city. Harris visits a Baptist church in Philadelphia, and talks to young black men at a barber shop, visits a Puerto Rican restaurant in Philly. The visit to the Puerto Rican restaurant comes as a comedian at the Trump Madison Square Garden rally makes racist remarks about Latinos, Blacks and Jews, and calls Puerto Rico an "island of garbage." About 579,000 Latinos and Puerto Ricans make up the voting public in Pennsylvania. Latino stars put up video clips of the comments on Latinos on social media expressing their disapproval.

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France and Germany agreed to begin talks on a common nuclear umbrella in Jan 1997 as reported here in The Washington Post on Jan 25, 1997. 

The post cites Le Monde- "Our two countries see themselves exposed to the same risks. We are ready to open a dialogue on the role of nuclear deterrence in the context of European defense policy." Says the document signed by Germany's Helmut Kohl and Frances Jacques Chirac on Dec. 9, 1996. France had clashed with the US under De Gaule and De Gaulle had pursued an independent nuclear deterrent. Chirac took up this stance in 1996 with nuclear tests in French Polynesia and offered to share its nuclear deterrent with Germany.

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Even though there is extensive financing it will take the global research community about one year to develop a good vaccine. There are so many labs and companies in China, USA, France, Germany, Australia, Canada doing the research that it is difficult to provide an overview.