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A 105 year old woman farmer in Tamilnadu state (formerly Madras) works on her 2.5 acre farm growing bananas. These days she has taken to organic farming with zeal. She was awarded Padma Shri India's national award for her work increasing popularity of organic farming. She comes from a village near the city of Coimbatore. She has worked closely with Tamilnadu Agricultural University and travels to many farmer meetings. Students from the University visit her farm as part of the Village Stay Program.

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Adam Neumann, the 40 year old startup founder of WeWork, which is basically a subleaser of real estate space, resigns. Aggressive brash attitude, a party heavy lifestyle, unpredictable decision making,  are cited by WSJ as reasons he lost the confidence of investors. Mr. Dimon of JP Morgan Chase was a key banker for the company. Chase under Dimon pursued startups in the hope of doing the IPO's. The company has substantial losses, and new management was brought in after Softbank decided Neumann should leave. Growth was fast, losses also mounted fast to $1.6 billion. WSJ says many investors decided that WeWork was not a tech company so much as a overvalued real estate company that engaged in business of leasing office space tricked out in millenial friendly decor. The greed for outsize returns has led to the accumulation of capital that could otherwise be spent wisely on infrastructure and other improvements in health and education, even though many of the gains in tech are behind us.  Recently the head of Uber was also asked to resign for an aggressive approach and questionable management style, also with substantial losses, and new management brought in. Fast expansion in an imprudent manner affects established companies. It led to collapse of India's Jet Airways, Britain's Thomas Cook in 2019. Yet the huge amount of capital of tens of billions of dollars wasted as investors seek outsize returns and are disappointed, is a pattern seen mostly in capital markets in the U.S. and to a lesser extent in Europe, China, Japan. The ideas piggyback on some aspect of tech already developed and are not major tech advances by and of themselves, and many as in the case of WeWork are touted as tech because of the catch and appeal of the word for everyone hoping to make an outsize return.    ...

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The supply chain chaos that is not good for American or European companies is shown here and how it is good only for warehouses that store these products for long periods. In March just 7% of the sea shipments from Asia to North America arrived on time, for Europe this was just 6%. This WSJ report says even big companies can expect to pay 5 times the freight rate than in 2019. New trouble looms in the form of more lockdowns in China with its zero covid policy and wage negotiations with dockworkers in Los Angeles and Long Beach. Stockpiling is one way to ensure availability which means additional costs. Vacancy rates for logistics property are at 4% in the US and 3.5% in Europe. All this points to the need for reshoring and bringing manufacturing back home. Companies need to invest $1 trillion over 5 years to relocate all foreign manufacturing based in China that is for markets in US, Europe and other parts of the world. As companies make plans for the shift to bring manufacturing back home, half the money going into real estate is still going to logistics properties and industrial logistics in the meantime, says this WSJ report ...

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A live interview by BBC Hindi with Arvind Kejriwal, chief minister of Delhi. In the interview Kejriwal says there are 55 deaths from the demonentisation by removal of 500 and 1000 rupee notes in India. When questioned about this and proof, Kejriwal says BBC is biased. The effort by the the Modi government to  remove these rupee notes is an effort to get people in the informal economy,  the deals in real estate, and people in other parts of the economy which pay little or no taxes to bring the cash to banks and pay the taxes due. This is intended to increase government revenue for investments in infrastructure and education, healthcare. services. The large scale of the shift has caused difficulties for ordinary people, and the upper classes, and the government is working to work through these problems. In India the black money as it is called is estimated to run to about 1 trillion dollars. It is also the result of corruption and has deprived the economy of needed investments and modernization. ...

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The Iranian response to the tighter sanctions of the Trump administration are seen in this report from Tehran in the WSJ. The economic arm of the Revolutionary Corps that helps run the Iranian economy managing civil construction projects, oil projects, and commercial real estate, is now led not by a general from the Iraq-Iran war. The new head is Saeed Mohammed who has a PhD. in civil engineering and has managed civil construction projects. He hopes to use his company's resources to fill the void left by foreign investors complying with sanctions and withdrawing. The companies run by the new leader are run on management efficiency principles leaving behind the revolutionary fervour of the previous period. As CEO of Khatam Construction Base, 50 year old Saeed Mohammed plans to stabilize the economy and soften the harsh effects of the sanctions of the Trump administration on Iran. He plans to work with other private companies inside Iran to shore up the Iranian economy till the sanctions regime and the differences with the U.S. are settled. ...

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After renegotiating the trade deal with Mexico and Canada, and the Phase 1 trade deal with China, the U.S. is now setting its sights on a trade agreement with the European Union. To do this the U.S. is looking at the use of economic pressure including tariffs on the European automobile industry. One goal is to get the EU to do more to end state subsidies to aircraft maker Airbus SE.  The U.S. is also working with Europe and Japan to ban 4 types of subsidies under World Trade Organization rules under a new proposal. Mr. Phil Hogan is the new EU trade commissioner who backs this proposal that is aimed at restricting Chinese subsidies to state enterprises. The U.S. also wants to see agricultural issues, including tariffs discussed in future negotiations with Europe. As part of efforts to change the way World Trade Organization rules are set the U.S. has blocked the appointment of judges at the top court of the WTO so that it lacks the quorum to operate. Mr. Vaughan who works under Mr. Lighthizer in the trade negotiations with Europe, says the Europeans should take U.S. concerns seriously, and accept the possibility that Mr. Trump could take aggressive action if the facts show he is justified in acting in that manner.  ...

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How to build a global port network with less cash- China's state owned Cosco and it's European ports network is an example of savy buying during financial crises, and when companies in Europe and the US were keen to make sales of ports. China simply integrated it into a vast exports network, using containerized terminal expansion modernization to build its manufacturing for export model. This was an extension of its domestic network where it added new port infrastructure to newly built rail and road connections.  India today is learning from this example. By 2000 the Chinese global export model was entrenched. It was also the year when the junior Bush president extended the wars of Reagan/Bush in Iraq of the 1980's to Afghanistan. China had a clear road ahead to build state of the art infrastructure of ports, logistics and exports over the next 10-15 years without any defense costs.  Piraeus in Greece south of Athens, a port concession acquired in 2004 Antwerp in Belgium (Austrian Netherlands), a minority stake in a container port acquired in 2008. In 2013 with sale of Terminal Link ports in a 49% stake deal by CMA of France holding 51%, China has stakes in Zeerbrugge and Antwerp, Busan South Korea, and Le Havre, Montoir and Fos in France, Xiamen in China, Miami and Houston in US. Rotterdam, Netherlands- Cosco acquired in 20126 a 35% stake in Euromax Terminal in Rotterdam from Hong Kong's Hutchison's Holdings for $125 million. Valencia and Bilbao majority  51% stake for $270 million, when JP Morgan paid as much as $950 million to ACS of Spain for these ports after the 2009 crisis led to Spanish divestments. Today in TEU's shipping containers China sends goods to Europe 10 times what it takes in through Spanish ports. Hamburg-In May 2023 Germany's Scholz overruled Habeck to let sale of 24.9% of Hamburg port to COSCO go through ...

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Reserve bank of India's Governor Dr. V.Y. Reddy, who was a strong regulaor and did not allow mortgage securitizations, derivatives, and increased the reserves banks had to hold in case things went wrong. He had strict rules for bank lending in the real estate industry even as a real estate bubble developed in India, all of which is keeping India's banking system in good shape as it faces the global credit crisis. Criticized at the time by bank executives for his strict no nonsense rules, he is now regarded highly by Bank CEO's in India. One of this no nonsense rules was that banks had to hold on to loans they made on their books as banks all over the world have always done in the past, because it made good sense as banks were likely to police themselves for loans they were responsible for. Vague and possibly dangerous experimentation in the name of productive change was frowned upon and the tried and tested rules were followed.

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As Citigroup shares dropped to $3.77 a share last week abruptly losing 50% of their value in a week, the Federal Reserve, Treasury and the FDIC were in negotiations over the weekend with Citigroup. Mr Paulson had several discussions with Robert Rubin, influential executive and director of Citicorp. And Citicorp CEO Vikram Pandit spoke with regulators and lawmakers. The deal that was worked out is as follows. Under the deal about $306 billion of largely residential and commercial real estate loans and certain other assets, which will remain on the balance sheet, will be backed up by Citigroup and the government. Any losses will be shared in the following manner. The first $29 billion in losses on that portfolio will be Citigroup's responsibility. Any losses over the $29 billion will be shared 10% by Citigroup and 90% by the government. Of the government's losses Treasury will use $5 billion from the bailout fund, FDIC bear the next $10 billion in losses, and the Federal Reserve will guarantee any additional losses above this $15 billion. What will the government get in exchange? Citigroup will issue $7 billion of preferred stock to government regulators. In addition the government is buying $20 billion in preferred stock in Citigroup with all preferred shares paying a 8% dividend. The other aspects of the deal are that all dividend payments by Citigroup will be halted for 3 years, certain executive compensation restrictions, and Citigroup will put in place the FDIC's loan modification plan which is similiar to the plan it recently announced....

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Research shows that when a home's value falls below 75% of the amount owed on the mortgage, the homeowner thinks hard about walking away even if he has the money to keep paying, as it does not make economic sense to keep paying. By 3rd quarter 2009 4.5 million Americans reached this point and by June 2010 it is estimated by Corel Logic, a real estate firm, that 5.1 million will reach the 75% point- or 10% of all mortgages. Homeowners who made the mistake of buying as the market was cresting are seriously considering walking away and bank's reluctance to reduce the payments is for them the last straw. The Obama administration hasn't helped as this comment by assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions, Michael Barr, shows. He discounts the idea that many people will walk away from their homes, saying that the overwhelming number will stay in their homes. Consultants at Oliver Wyman show from their research that at least 17% walked away from their homes even though they could make payments in 2008, or 588,000 people, and this was before the full impact of the global financial crisis. These numbers could be much higher in today's depressed market....

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Christopher Wood points to deflationary trends in Europe and the USA. Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data shows European bank exposure to government debt in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain at $2.8 trillion at the end of 2009, and a rise in the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR), as further signs of negative trends. The property bubble in China and strong action to tighten and use antispeculation measures have already led to transaction volumes in residential real estate falling rapidly. If Beijing reconsiders further appreciation of the yuan, a trade debate with the U.S. may intensify. All this points to increasing risk of a double dip recession.

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Feldstein says GDP growth was smaller than the 1.8% that was reported for the 1st quarter of 2011, because two thirds of that 1.8% went into business inventories and not for sales to consumers or final customers. This means final sales growth at an annual rate of 0.6% and actual quarterly increase of 0.15%. With mostly inventory investment and not much response from the consumer he says business cannot be persuaded to hire and invest. A closer look at the numbers shows the growth was in February and March, with declines in April for real wages, durable goods orders and manufacturing production, existing home sales, and in real per capita disposable incomes. Feldstein sees the Obama administration's failure in several areas. The stimulus could not make up in size and structure for the loss of annual consumer spending of $500 billion and loss in housing construction of $200 billion. At $300 billion in 2009 and $400 billion in 2010 it was not enough to fill the huge gap presented by the financial crisis. President Obama allowed the Democratic leadership in Congress to put together a package that while adding to the deficit added less than a dollar to GDP for every dollar of stimulus. The stimulus lacked punch for economic growth as it consisted more of transfers to state and local governments, transfers to individuals, temporary tax cuts for low income people etc. The lack of a plan to reduce the deficit by creating higher uncertainty about future tax rates and interest rates has hurt the economy. The President's health legislation with the cost of $1 trillion over 10 years diverted much needed time, attention and bipartisan goodwill from the core issues of unemployment and the deficit. The Obama administration also did not tackle the housing issue as suggested by Feldstein with specific proposals in the first year of the Obama administration, with very little done to reduce the millions of foreclosures that have kept housing in a prolonged slump. ...

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Loan officers in the Institute of International Finance Survey showed a tightening of credit standards and moderation in loan demand for the 2nd quarter of 2011. Commercial real estate sector showed a sharp decline in Latin America and Europe. A third of respondents said local funding conditions had tightened. More than 40% of banks in Europe reported decline in funding conditions.

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Regional banks lose more than a third of hteir stock values in Ohio, the southeast and western states. In some cases banks have lost half their value. These banks will neede another $65 billion on top of the $120 billion they have raised so far according to a Goldman Sachs report. The declinig market for commercial real estate will also hit these banks.

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The second proposal by the DJT administration is described by the WSJ as being one that may be worse than the first for Ukraine as it opens up repayment of the money US gave as aid to Ukraine to defend against Russian invasion. DJT administration maintains it is $350 billion not the $100 billion Ukraine and the EU say Ukraine received in US aid. In this report Ukrainians say the Ukraine parliament would never be able to pass such an agreement and it sets up more difficulties in US Ukraine peace negotiations if released. The US proposal would set up an entity called the US Ukraine Reconstruction Fund. This fund would have first right to all infrastructure and minerals projects in Ukraine. It's approval would be required for other investors to invest in Ukraine infrastructure and mineral projects. It is written as a commercial agreement, not as a nation to nation agreement. Scott Bessent who runs Treasury is a finance executive overseeing the negotiation and this proposal. He worked for George Soros Fund and provided advice for the bet on the British pound during a difficult time for the UK economy that led to a billion dollar gain for Soros Fund. DJT is a real estate developer. As a result their thinking is based on their experience in the US real estate and capital markets.     ...

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South Korea prepares for new elections with about a third or quarter of the people strongly supporting Yoon whose impeachment was upheld by the Constitutional Court April 4, 2025. Adjoining BBC Special Report shows how Yoon went astray. The gist also shows how South Korean democracy is only since 1988 compared to India's 1948, and how India's democratic traditions were formed under the Birtish with representation in parliament, first British then Indian, and in state assemblies in the 1930's, under Nehru in 1950's.

Today with the US imposing 25% tariffs on South Korea there is no government to make a response or strategy to deal with this.

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Mr. Trump gained much confidence in his success playing the star role in Mark Burnett produced show "The Apprentice." He did this from 2004 to 2015. In 2011 he gained more experience on a political show on Fox news by doing a segment on "Fox and Friends." Much of his ability to talk to large crowds comes from this period. His earnings amounted to $427 million, about half a billion dollars. His real estate business was not one of his strengths as he took too  many risks and operating in a volatile market environment in luxury hotels produced large losses. Yet he gained a keen sense of what was popular in the public imagination and how successive administrations of Democrats and Republicans from Clinton to Obama and Bush had missed the devastated American manufacturing from imports and shift of manufacturing to China. This had affected small towns and communities across the American landscape and the success on television gave Mr. Trump the confidence to champion their cause. By 2016 this had gone so far as to enable Mr. Trump to rewrite the focus of the Republican party to take up this cause shifting the party from deficit cutting to spending on infrastructure to rebuild America.  ...

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China generates 53% of its emissions from coal in May 2024. All the remaining from non fossil sources. Two factors are evident, yet both do not indicate a big fall off in fossil emissions from this point just a plateauing effect with it flattening out. The first is that China is putting in solar and wind at 8 times the level of the US, taking up two thirds of world solar and wind installations. The second is that the one third of emissions from construction and real estate is falling off because that industrial sector has collapsed. Overall the future points to slowing of emissions as China comes only gradually down from that 53%. What happens in China makes a huge impact on climate change. India has also committed to climate change action and meeting targets early under PM Modi so that India as it industrializes will not follow the path of jumping fossil emissions China had. This is useful to know as the US and EU, UK, expand solar and wind. It is important that the US stay committed to climate change action something missing from the Republican platform for 2024. Delaying climate change action will impose huge costs on the US that could be about 1 trillion dollars if it is stalled now and is taken up in 2028. ...

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An unattended vegetable stand in the Ebusi neighborhood of Tokyo. A few minutes from the rail station is this vegetable stand run by Tomo from Hiroshima and her son 14 year old Satoru, a former real estate office worker who quit to open a vegetable store. One day she was shocked to hear a customer say she had money enough to only come once a month for vegetables. Tomo closes this store and opens a vegetable stand which prices vegetables at prices young workers on low wages can afford. One young worker from Okinawa who works for a large company made so little that she had only $70 for food in her monthly budget. She becomes a regular customer and asks her grandmother how to cook zucchini, eggplants so she can save money by cooking at home. This is a really heart warming video about Tomo's farm in a prefecture near Tokyo a 2 hour drive away. Tomo prices everything at 70 cents or 100 yen a plastic bag of vegetables. Her son learns to farm and to run the stand. Mostly the stand is unattended with long caring messages on a message board to customers. It tells young workes not to worry too much about the future. ...

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European companies rushed to make new business investment in Iran after the lifting of Iran sanctions with the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2015. This report in the NYT shows companies in Europe were wary that the nuclear detente with Iran would not last. As a result the European exports to Iran up to $12.8 billion in 2017 were up 30% but still ranked Iran as the 33rd largest trading partner, behind Serbia. Other problems were bureaucratic hurdles and a lack of coordination in Iran for moving ahead with projects. After the deal was signed companies such as Peugeot, Airbus, Total, Daimler moved ahead to invest in Iran. Yet the investments were made carefully considering the opposition of the Trump administration. In one deal Airbus agreed to provide 100 new aircraft for Iran Air's aging fleet, yet only 3 were delivered by May 2018. Daimler had a deal with Iran's Khodro vehicle maker for Fuso brand trucks, yet Daimler officials say demand was weak. A deal made by Total to explore for offshore natural gas may require a waiver under a "grandfather clause" say Total officials, or the option to turn over the investment to its minority partner CNPC, a Chinese state owned company. The U.S. ambassador to Germany, Mr. Grennell, says European companies should stop operations in Iran immediately showing the U.S. plans to take stronger action.  ...

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Spending a minimum of 250,000 euros on a house in Greece gets an investor a five year renewable visa. Chinese investors seeking a European base are buying or constructing homes in Athens, and the islands of Santorini and Corfu. This is reviving the residential building market in Greece after years of bailouts by the European Central Bank. Chinese middle class investors see the presence of Chinese companies such as Cosco which owns part of the port of Piraeus as a sign it is safe to invest in Greece. Property prices dropped 40% in 2010. In 2018 prices went up by 2% and building permits by 10%, according to the Bank of Greece. Real estate investment was up 20% in 2018 with Chinese investment companies buying into whole apartment blocks in Athens to draw investors.

Greece had a record 33 million tourists in 2018. A 320 billion euros bailout ended in 2018. 

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NAR statistics may have overcounted home sales in the U.S. going back to 2007. NAR statistics showed home sales for 2010 at 4.9 million, down from 5.2 million in 2009. CoreLogic, a real estate analytics firm says it counted only 3.3 million home sales in 2010, down from 3.7 million sales. This is a wide divergence and suggests more severe problems in the housing market in the U.S.

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The debate in parliament on the no-confidence motion against the Modi government in India. The speech made by Congress president Rahul Gandhi criticized the Modi government for crony capitalism and the lack of transparency in the Rafale aircraft deal. The motion of no-confidence was initiated by the TDP, Telegu Desam Party in the state of Andhra Pradesh.  It was defeated with 325 against and 126 in favor of which the Congress party had 65.