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US Canada relations in a downward spiral after Carney's words about "economic coercion" and China at Davos. In this case it has incensed Luttnick and Bessent. Bessent has called for US to have relations with Alberta. The Liberal Party had run into problems with its attitude towards the US in the western hemisphere under Trudeau. Carney was supposed to fix this but Canada under Carney has sought to stoke Canadian identity as a way to win elections, when throughout  most of its history Canada and particularly after Dominion status has linked its identity to the US. In fact British constitutional expert Ivor Jennings has pointed out that Canada's trade patterns within Canada are an aberration as it would normally trade with its neighbors north to south (Quebec/Ontario with New England) not east to west  (Ontario with Alberta) as it has done when Canada became a separate state in North America. As Carney and DJT engage in tit for tat it remains unlikely that the USMCA will be negotiated and renewed, creating new uncertainty for the Canadian economy that Carney was expected to address with immigration, housing and other problems left behind by Trudeau's Liberals. ...

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Three BBC correspondents on China's 2026 National People's Congress - effort to invest in childcare and elder care services to increase consumer spending. To continue in solar, robotics, AI, EV's, and exports as before. The problems of industrial overcapacity and pushing subsidized product into the US or EU that cause trade tensions and tariffs will continue.  New 301 investigations by US Trade Representative are taking place and will complete by mid-July. Germany's chancellor was in Beijing making a similar point about industrial overcapacity and German business is now facing the same threats to their business that the US has gone through. The one other way for China to grow is to increase consumer spending- hence the effort to help young people with childcare costs and retired people with elder care. The payments to seniors is low says the BBC's McDonnell who says the increase in payment to rural and non-working urban residents of $3 per month is miniscule. No details given for housing support to newly married couples. On one aspect relevant to the Iran war-China is increasing its efforts on renewable energy to reduce imports from volatile Middle East. ...

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Dangers of capital allocation to AI when other needs are great -housing and cost of living concerns. The prospects of boom bust cycle.

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UK prime minister Starmer gets new members for his cabinet after resignation of Angela Rayner as deputy prime minster and Minister for Housing. Peter Kyle is new Business Secretary and Steve Reed the new Housing Minister. After winning in a landslide with the Conservative vote being split between Reform UK and the Conservative party, the Labour party has struggled to win voter support in local government elections. The Reform UK is now ahead of Labour in polls with Labour seen as not taking a tough line on illegal migration or not walking the talk of a tough line at the elections in 2024 to fight the illegal smuggling of migrants across the Channel.

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Abut 3 million homeowners are expected to default on their mortgages in the 30 months ending in mid 2009, and two thirds of this or 2 million will go into foreclosure, according to Moody's Economy.com. So what led to all this which eventually hit the financial markets in the U.S., and also to a lesser degree in Europe, through the opacity of the mortgage securities created from bad mortgages with falsely tagged triple AAA ratings that ended up in the assets of banks and investment firms? The motivations of each group were perverted as things unfolded. When the packagers of securties were not responsible for what they were doing they pursued profit before ethical behaviour and all sorts of securities were created. As these packagers were allowed to shop for ratings the ratings companies gradually lowered their standards to attract business. Politicians failed in the free market atmosphere of the Republican Bush administration and Republican led Congress. Senator Bachus and Congressman Frank introduced legislation during the later period of the bubble but failed to draw support to curb the bad lending. Republicans blocked a new antipredatory lending law in North Carolina from being enacted for the country from 1999 onwards. And Bush without realizing the ramifications prodded HUD to push Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to require higher percentage of loans to go to low income borrowers. Fannie and Freddie in turn met this requirement by increasing the demand for these subprime loans by buying the mortgage securities, which the packagers of these securities backed by subprime mortgage loans and incorrectly rated AAA by conniving ratings agencies were happy to supply. It was a sad situation with a happy -everyone could say the were bringing home ownership and the American dream to low income people, and business was signing up for this ride with short term gain in mind. And in all this financial innovation lost its legs as packaging these securities and constructing new investment vehicles like the conduits were being used in perverse ways. The basics of labeling something correctly was torn apart. You could not turn a subprime loan to low income borrowers or a loan without documentation to flippers and speculators into something different by simply labeling it as AAA. What the confidence in financial innovation in the American system did was help spread these securities all over the globe, where they were held with confidence by towns in remote parts of the Scandinavian north country as well as financial centres in Europe and Asia. At the state level politicians in California saw this as one of the state's star industries and protected it from legislation to curb bad lending, as most of the big lenders were based in California. Due to a strange set of affairs the Department of Corporations was left with the tasks of oversight of mortgage lenders in the state. It was concerned more with issues like protecting senior citizens from financial scams and was not staffed to meet the supervisory role of a huge mortgage lending business. When it comes to the Fed's role Greenspan also took the laissez fairre stand of not interfering with free markets, even when a lot of the bad lending was obvious and one Fed Governor Gramlich was pushing for better lending standards. The Fed supervisory role was over banks and banks were required to follow lending standards, but most of this lending had shifted to mortgage brokers and financial companies which were beyond the supervision of the Fed. Had the Fed extended its supervision to mortgage affiliates of the banks this could have increased the level of supervision and made a difference. But state regulation mechanisms in California by Department of Corporations show that the regulatory mechanism did not take into account the realities of mortgage lending and how it had changed. ...

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Much of the cost of the Common Prosperity campaign of president Xi to increase access to healthcare, education and housing will fall on heavily indebted local governments in China, says WSJ. Today in 2022 these three education, healthcare and housing are moving beyond reach of ordinary Chinese because of rising costs and referred to as the "three big mountains." In education and housing the government has moved to improve access. Today parents like Ding Jianxiong in Beijing can give their children two extra hours of classes in school for not cost. It saves money and time compared to tutoring classes that the government is discouraging. Teachers have to work longer hours for this to happen and the cost is borne by local governments. Governments at provincial, municipal and county level finance 80%, 70%, and 60% of China's fiscal expenditures on education, healthcare and housing projects. Data from China's Finance Ministry shows local governments have built up $4 trillion in debt at end of 2020, up 20% from a year earlier, much of it to finance infrastructure projects in the last 20 years. This experts say is an underestimate with additional debt buried and camouflaged in financing vehicles, other forms of debt. In 2020 the central government restricted sales of land that were creating an overinflated housing market and driving cost of housing ever higher, depriving local governments of a principal source of revenues. Land sales are now down about 15% and falling. Experts say a new property tax could only bring in one fifth of what was derived through land sales by local governments. The result is a fundamental mismatch today between revenues and costs for local governments that has not been addressed. ...

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"So that Berlin remains our home" posters and signs are all over Berlin, Germany. The escalating housing crisis in Berlin is leading to a referendum on September 26, same day as national elections. This referendum is about taking over developer housing over 3000 units with compensation and is supported by a small majority of voters in Berlin. The referendum  required gathering 175,000 signatures in a few months. The Left Party in the Berlin coalition government of SPD, Greens and Die Linke supports it , Greens are skeptical and SPD is opposed to expropriation. The referendum needs 25% yes votes to expropriation which may not happen. More likely is that housing developers will have to work with the government to come up with solutions to the housing crisis in Berlin.  The referendum is constitutionally compatible with the Basic Law in Germany which says- " Land, natural resources and means of production may, for the purpose of nationalization, be transferred to public ownership or other forms of public enterprise by a law that determines the nature and extent of compensation." Private developers expansion has made housing less affordable for Berlin residents and the target is Deutsche Wohnen, which owns 113,000 housing units in Berlin. This trend shows how different the public opinion is in Berlin after decades in which the housing concerns of local residents were set aside. Clearly Germany needs to invest more in housing infrastructure that is affordable and enhances the opportunities for ordinary workers in Berlin to live in the city. ...

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China's breakneck growth was enabled by housing construction, and coal in a way that created problems of climate change. Now China's largest housing developers Evergrande and Country Garden together have a staggering $500 billion in debt and in serious financial trouble in or near default. How will China's government respond? It let Evergrande who had defaulted on debt payments build 300,000 apartments last year, just to protect home buyers. Now it's founder Mr. Xu is taken in for questioning and "illegal crimes." Making sure that the apartments on which people made deposits are built would cost another $72 billion, says Nomura. Yet suppliers, painters, builders and brokers are owed another $390 billion, in one estimate. And foreign creditors are getting together for complicated restructurings. Evergrande had entered wealth management promising 8 or 9% returns and has stopped making payments. All this is affecting public confidence in the future and China's growth story. For decades China depended on housing construction for high growth rates. Now the process is unwinding with both in financial difficulties. This NYT report says that after Evergrande's default, Country Garden failed to make a payment on $200 billion in debt last week and has 400,000 apartments that it sold but has not finished building. ...

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There was a time when tech meant scientific advance for mankind and something positive for ordinary Americans. Today "Tech" can mean something different from what it used to mean, including something that is unwanted, even pernicious, something to increase profit margins even to exorbitant levels that hurt ordinary Americans and the public, and not a scientific advance in the real sense of the word. Nothing that inspires hope and better future for mankind. RealPage software that induces increase in housing rent prices is one aspect of the current housing cost of living crisis that Harris is focused on. Binyamin Applebaum of the NYT looks at the RealPage software sold to housing companies that would increase prices and be an added burden to households already under pressure from rising grocery prices and housing rent increases during the pandemic. This is a key issue for voters in 2024 and a comprehensive approach has to be taken on many fronts to address costs- including attack on price gouging, $50,000 for first time home buyers, and incentives for home building that Harris has proposed, and other actions.   ...

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As young people borrow more and take on debt and as more money goes into savings after housing price collapse, a new crisis of personal debt is taking place in a country known for the propensity to save.

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Henri Specht, Director of the Olympic Village, walks along newly installed boardwalk along the river Seine and sees how the Olympics will turn an industrial bank into a pedestrian walk area.This approach  has not been taken before and shows the French have taken the courage to try something new. The French government and organizers have built the Olympic Village in one of France's poorest suburbs along the river Seine in northeast of Paris to give it a jolt and revitalize the area. Carbon emissions will be cut in half using new technologies and it will be kept cool without airconditioning. Each of the 40 low rise tower blocks will provide housing for 14,000 people for Olympics and another 9000 for Paralympics. This a 52 acre project with housing for athletes to provide housing for residents, a new Aquatic Center, and other facilities to increase its potential for regeneration. Training facilities for employment are added in with high unemployment of about 20%.   Will it work? It was home to car and steel factories that have now closed as manufacturing went overseas. In 1998 the Stade de France stadium was built here to revive the area. Institut Montaigne says poverty will not disappear. The mayor says new housing is being delivered to change our image and improve the social balance in the city. In the neighboring town of St Oen the mayor has attracted $400 million euro investment for new housing. Tesla is putting its French headquarters in St. Oen. For the village about two thirds of the budget of 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) comes from private real estate companies and one third from the French  government 646 million euros. After the games a third of the 2800 apartments in the Olympic Village will be sold to private owners, one third to go to public housing, and one third for rentals to students and others. ...

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Public pension funds are beginning to adopt renter protections to limit evictions and to limit rate increases. President Biden has sought to limit price increases for rental housing to 5%. Evictions are increasing in many cities. About 25% of renters of apartments pay over 50% of their income for housing putting a huge burden on lower income families. This is a big issue in Nevada, and in other states Arizona, and in the midwestern states.

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In India's southern coastline state of Kerala, PM Modi has pursued a strategy of working with the CPI led government on development projects, and at the same time contested elections to set up a BJP government in the state. The capital city of Trivandrum (Thiruvananthapuram) local election has led to a BJP municipal government in 2026. In an address to supporters in Trivandrum PM Modi said he was gratified by the results in elections for the capital city of Trivandrum (Thiruvananthapuram), and wanted to make it India's model city., It reminded him he said of the situation in Gujarat when the BJP party won elections in Ahmedabad for the first time in 1987 for city government. By showing good governance in Ahmedabad, BJP was able to win elections in the state and provide good government and industrialization for Gujarat for the decades since 2001 when Modi formed the state government. This bodes well for Kerala said the Indian PM. Many schemes for improving the welfare of farmers, for people in health, housing and small business loans are coordinated by the federal, state and city governments to get the best results and this speeds up industrialization and modernization in the Indian model to create the kind of results China and Japan achieved in their heyday. ...

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To get an idea of Indian potential growth rate one can see the potential of states like Bihar and Maharashtra. Bihar state in India is where the potential for economic development is huge and growth rate of 22% for 2025-2026. Imagine a state with 130 million people in India with about 17% urbanization compared to 37% for India. Most of the development concentrated in the capital city of Patna. Other cities being Gaya near Bodh Gaya, home of the world's most important ancient Buddhist sites where Lord Buddha spent most of his life, and Bhagalpur.  The new plan is to accelerate urbanization in Bihar. After Pataliputra and Kankarbagh 11 new satellite cities are to be set up under an new plan for Bihar. Housing Minister Nitin Nabin of Bihar state says- “The new townships will include nine divisional headquarters cities, Sonepur and Sitamarhi (Sitapuram). The initiative will reduce population pressure on major cities, ensuring better basic infrastructure and scope for further expansion. Special emphasis will be laid on roads, traffic management, drainage, waste disposal, green parks, and residential areas. The nine divisional headquarters were Patna, Muzaffarpur, Bhagalpur, Gaya, Darbhanga, Munger, Saran, Saharsa and Purnia. Committees will be formed to monitor the townships’ overall development." ...

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The Dutch election as elsewhere in Europe marks a significant shift away from the migration issue to the urgent problems of housing and cost of living, infrastructure, that were neglected as the migrant issue moved up in importance. Housing shortages with need for 400,000 new apartments and homes in Netherlands is a major issue in Dutch elections. Migration is not the major issue it was in 2023-2024 and Geert Wilders Freedom party lost 12 seats in the new parliament . D66 Centrist party gained 18 seats, and its leader Rob Jetten 38 years says this is a shift to cooperation as the new style in government. He told NOS in an interview- “In the coming years, we will do everything we can to show all Dutch people … that politics and the government can be there for them again." Jetten says he had noticed during the election campaign that voters liked his positive approach to “say goodbye to the Wilders era and truly seek the cooperation to move the country forward.” The Wilders era with participation of the Freedom party in Dutch government 2023-2025 led to much infighting in the Dutch government leading to neglect of major issues such as housing shortages and cost of living.    ...

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There are about 181,000 homeless in California one third of the total in the US. This $6.4 billion bond issuance for borrowing funds was approved by just over 50% of the vote. It will go to create more affordable housing so badly needed in California's out of control housing prices. People tended to think nothing works and out of apathy did not vote. But the scale of the problem required effort at the state level or federal level with funding in the tens of billions of dollars for affordable housing. This is the first time that this has happened even though Silicon Valley and capital markets have wasted hundreds of billions of dollars in dubious companies and projects that have contributed little to the standard of living and ease of living of the American people, including essential infrastructure and health, education services. The dilapidated and crumbling infrastructure, of subways, streets and bridges in New York City is another aspect of the same problem of serious, serious lack of affordable housing in California. It also creates the kind of class divisions in society that FDR-Truman-Kennedy sought to remove since the 1930's. ...

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Shabana Mahmoud as the new Home Secretary would move migrants to barracks from hotels in UK after illegal boat crossings pose a threat and a distraction from issues of housing, economic growth, cost of living important to 70 million British people. Recently The Times of London described the proposals of Farage at Reform UK as worthy of being listened to and the need for action to stop illegal boat crossings through a policy of deterrence that provides no benefits and doesn't invest billions of dollars in housing illegal boat crossing migrants that only keeps the flow going. The US simply through deterrence and action of the military and National Guard supporting Border Police has shown this works cutting the flow to mere hundreds, a policy that has worked also in Germany under chancellor Merz.

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The Case-Shiller quarterly U.S. housing price index for the 1st quarter of 2012, shows annual declines in housing prices for 13 of 20 cities. The national numbers for all metro areas in the U.S. showed a 1.9% decrease on an annual basis from the prior year, and decline by 2% for the 1st quarter of 2012 compared to the prior quarter.