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Britain's prime minister Johnson has gained approval for 16 billion military buildup for naval and other buildup for the next 4 years. It was apparent for some time during the administrations from Blair through the financial crisis driven by banks under Cameron, that Britain had lost its resolve to have a strong military capability. This was evident in its handling of Hong Kong, from the transfer to its weak response to the situation in Hong Kong as participatory democracy failed in Hong Kong. During the period after the second world war Britain failed to bring participatory democracy in Hong Kong under its rule. Labour and Conservative administrations made no effort even as participatory democracy was brought to large parts of Asia and Africa through independence, following democratic elected legislatures in the period between two wars in India and Ceylon. No such effort was made in Hong Kong leading to questions about its own commitment to the principles when China introduced its own government in Hong Kong by changing legal structures.  Britain lacked the military capability and its partnership with France and the U.S. was also weaker because of other distractions from middle east conflicts and internal problems. This is now changing with the military capability buildup for the next 4 years. This is happening as France under Macron takes a new posture in its battle to defend the ideals of its Republic, and rebuild its manufacturing capabilities. ...

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President Macron shows flexibility on pension age being raised from 62 to 64 after two weeks of crippling transport strikes in Paris and on national railways. Some aspects of the pensions reform consolidating 42 different pension schemes into one national pension is broadly supported by the public and the CDFT union. The raising of the pension age for transport employees who often retire in their fifties is also broadly supported. The strikes by the CGT union have about 60% support and Mr. Macron's approval ratings have dropped to 33%, leading to Mr. Macron giving ground.

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Talks at the White House between Macron of France and DJT on Feb 24, 2025. DJT says Russian president Putin will accept European and American troops in Ukraine to monitor a peace settlement as a peace keeping force. French troops were offered for such aforce by Macron. DJT says he asked Putin directly this question and the answer was yes for a peacekeeping force to end the war. Analysis by The Times shows Britain and the EU are coming to terms with DJT policy to end the war and Europe shouldering its defense  responsibilities and costs because America has challenges in the Asia Pacific with the rise of China. 

To get an idea of China's resources and capacity it now has over 50% of ship building capacity in the world. The US is only now ramping up its efforts to build ships and increase the effectiveness and size of the US Navy, and a major defense effort is underway.

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This report by James McCauley of the Washington Post, points to the uncertainties in the French presidential election. About one third of French voters are undecided. Le Pen and a surprise candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon are pulling in voters on the far right and the far left. There are questions whether Macron's effort to pull together centre right and centre left voters will work in such an environment. McCauley says the gist of Macron's approach is summarized in a line in his 2016 book- removing "the obstacles on the road," making equality of opportunity a reality in a land of elite government and business running the country, and key being " renewal of ideas and men."  It is not exactly a way forward, more about renewal in French society. His opponents are pitching exiting the European Union and different visions of a protectionist welfare state. Macron is pitching continuity with renewal and changes to bring more opportunity to young people by investing in vocational education, recreate French schools, and expand health services, lower residency taxes. A lot depends on centrist voters coming out to vote as happened in the recent Dutch election, and undecided voters looking for renewal instead of the uncertainty of drastic changes. ...

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This report in the WSJ shows in an extraordinary detailed way going back 20 years how under each administration Bush, Obama, Trump in the US and Angela Merkel in Germany, Hollande and Macron in France, the serious differences in the world view and thinking between president Putin of Russia and western leaders were simply ignored or overlooked. Mr. Putin truly believed in Ukraine and Russia as one people, researched history on his own and wrote an essay that made him more convinced than ever about his views that separation of Ukraine from Russia was an artificial construct, more so in the last two years.  By integrating the German and European Union economies with Russia and China without coming to terms with the large separation in views of the world and ignoring Russian views because of its economic size as an economy the size of France, both Merkel and Obama's policies failed to grasp what was happening. This report shows in much detail each event since 2005 that led to increasing distrust by Putin of western leaders.  The integration of the economies of the west and the integration of supply chains with China and Russia continued even after serious concerns had developed during the Trump administration. US and European business was operating on a completely different path not taking this into account in any way. It was only in the Biden administration and after the election of Scholz in Germany in 2021 that the situation was becoming clear. On the other side Ukraine itself and its people had changed in ways that were not anticipated by people in Germany or Russia, much less the leaders in Germany or Russia. There was a genuine sense that Ukraine was a national identity leading to the Ukraine resistance and a prolonged conflict. Brendan Simms, Cambridge historian shows how Europe went through conflicts and wars in its history as each of the major European nations sought advantage from 1453 to the present in his book, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Small gains were made in these wars that dragged on bringing great suffering to ordinary people.These wars involved England, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia. ...

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Increasingly complex political coalitions are away centrist parties of the establishment have maintained power in Europe. Traditional political parties on the right allied with business and working class parties allied with organized labour are replaced by a fragmented landscape with parties emerging at the far right and far left. This is also a result of the deep recession following the global financial crisis of 2009, changes in international trade and globalization that have increased inequality, and the migration crisis in Europe.  In Germany and Netherlands centrist parties have formed coalitions to remain in power. In France and Italy mainstream socialist parties suffered defeat, in France to a newly formed party by Mr. Macron, and in Italy to a party started by a comedian Beppe Grillo called the Five Star Movement which allied with the Northern League party at the far right. In Spain's general election in 2019 the Socialists showed a new trend of going back to their roots as working class parties. By addressing minimum wage and other issues relating to equality the Socialist party in Spain increased its share of the vote by 6% to 29% in 2019 elections. Previously in the last 2 decades the Socialist parties had moved away from their focus on equality towards economic efficiency. The tradeoff between equality and economic efficiency moved away from equality in Europe and the U.S. during the last 3 decades,leaving Socialist parties exposed to losing some of their working class base to new parties formed to address today's issues of fairness and social justice.   ...

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With some aspects of Marie Le Pen's programme possibly violating the French Constitution and some parts of the programme leading to France being forced to leave the European Union, what was not looked at carefully in the first round vote is now happening for the second round. The Le Pen draft law on "immigration, identity and citizenship," is seen by multiple analyses cited by The Guradian, as violating the principles of equality enshrined in the French Constitution. Constitutional experts say this would also violate European law and lead to a progressive or indirect exit from the European Union. Le Pen's proposal to lower the retirement age to 60 was coming under scathing scrutiny, with Jean Tirole, the 2014 Nobel prize winner in Economics saying it would cost 68 billion euros and "permanently impoverish the country." Countries such as Brazil that lowered the retirement age in this manner have found that it seriously affects public finances, leading to the deep economic crisis in Brazil following the commodity price collapse a few years ago. Macron has moved in the opposite direction to raise the retirement age gradually and now with a proposed national consensus, at the cost of losing some support, simply to shore up public finances. So that needed investments in infrastructure and climate change can be made. For this reason it may become evident to undecided voters that Le Pen's proposals have some serious flaws if implemented, weakening the French economy and yet not tackling the deeper problems of younger people. These problems The Guardian says in a separate report are the precarious and low pay jobs, asset based inequality, and rural urban regional differences developing as a result of the offshoring of manufacturing to China, and are common to Britain, France, Germany, and the US. These problems are beginning to be addressed after the lessons learned from the pandemic by western nations.   ...

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German chancellor Merkel imposes a partial lockdown in Germany starting November 2. This is followed by an announcement of a lockdown across France by president Macron. On October 28 German daily cases went above 14,000. Only 25% of intensive care beds are now available, creating a very serious situation. Meetings in public will be restricted to just two households of up to 10 people total. No crowds at sports events. Restaurants and bars will close except for take away. Schools and kindergartens will remain open. Church services and protests will be allowed to continue. Shops will remain open with one customer for every 10 square meters or 108 square feet. Merkel called it a "very serious situation," and said "we must act now to avoid an acute national health emergency." She told Germans the number of people in intensive care units has doubled in last 10 days, and in many areas it was no longer possible to track and trace infection chains. In 75% of the cases the source of infection is unknown. People are encouraged to work from home and companies encouraged to make this happen. Companies with less than 50 employees and self-employed will get support from the government with  about 75%% of the income. Companies, institutions and clubs will also get federal aid. About $10 billion euros are set aside for this aid. ...

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A Whirlpool appliance factory in Amiens in the Somme region is slated for closure and relocation to Poland. Emmanual Macron made a surprise visit to the factory to talk to worker representatives. He says he cannot prevent the closure but can work to arrange for good terms for the closure. Marine Le Pen the far right candidate also visited the site at the factory gates where workers were on strike. Afterwards Macron said "I try to fix problems, not to exploit them."  Macron has come under criticism in the French press for taking too much for granted in the second round and not fighting for support the way he had earlier. Le Pen has appealed to workers facing factory closure and areas that have been neglected as factories closed in previous years. In the north and northeast smaller towns and areas neglected in the tech boom and facing deindustrialization have turned to Le Pen. Macron's effort to go into these areas is part of his style and his conviction that the problems have to be tackled in the deindustrialized areas, and to break the image that the National Front is striving to create of a candidate from investment banking that does not understand workers. ...

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Ms. Le Pen of the National Front called her going into the second round runoff against Macron's En Marche movement, "an act of French pride." Emmanuel Macron has his own way of looking at this. As this NYT editorial points out Macron says his is a movement "of patriots fighting the threat of nationalism." At his rallies and the rally following coming out the front runner in the first round of elections Macron is shown with people waving French flags all around him. The message- that in today's world of global cooperation for economic progress nationalist feeling has to be balanced with healthy cooperation and integration into the regional community, the European Union. That he is a patriot who also has in him a feeling for the communities in his wider region. That real economic progress can only be achieved working in cooperation with neighboring countries and regional community, and around new ideas for renewal.

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France's Baccalaureate exam goes back to the days of Napoleon. Students take 15 exams in their final year in high school. Since 1808 it has not changed much. French president Macron is changing the exam as part of reform of the education system. Changes include making 40% of the score coming from in class testing. The philosophical essay is retained. Students are tested on knowledge that helps them think quickly on their feet.

Teacher pay has not changed much in 15 years and teachers protested recently asking for resources not reforms. One of the problems is that more students pass the exam, 60% compared to 40% thirty years ago, and many flunk out in the first year of college. The value of passing the exam is not as before with fewer job opportunities. Changes are seen as needed because the Bac exam was treated as sacred and little was done to adapt it to the changing times. 

 

 

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A meeting of European leaders from Germany, France, Spain, and Italy with African leaders from Libya, Chad and Niger, comes up with priority steps to take for reducing migration from African countries to Europe. Steps include aid to countries with high flow of migrants. The EU gave $10 million to Niger to fight illegal immigration. The French president Macron suggested setting up hotspots from where migrants could apply for legal migration. Chancellor Merkel cautioned that this applied only to humanitarian refugees and not to economic refugees. The presidents of Chad and Niger point out that the cause is poverty, and smugglers need to be diverted to other occupations such as commerce or farming. During 2017 to August 125,000 migrants have come across the Mediterranean on boats. Smugglers put people on small boats leading to many deaths and rescue efforts. 

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For the approaching US midterm elections president Biden seeks to draw a sharp contrast with Republican Senator Rick Scott's Plan which he says would worsen inflation and increase taxes on working class families. Mr. Scott's plan is for sunset on all federal legislation and president Biden says this would include Medicare and Social Security. Mr. Scott also wants all Americans to pay some income tax to have skin in the game. At this time about half of all Americans pay no taxes says Mr. Scott. Former US president Trump continues to lead the Republican party in 2022  yet he faces a very different Democratic party under president Biden. Mr. Biden's focus is on his $2 trillion plan for Workers and Families, rebuilding American manufacturing and renewing supply chains, unlike Hillary Clinton whose lacked such a focus. Leading to Mr. Trump's appeal with working class families and disdain for traditional Republican policies that secured him the presidency in 2018 by defeating Hillary Clinton. The changes with president Biden's focus on workers and families are happening also in the European Union. Scholz and the Greens in Germany, Macron in France with potentially Melenchon as prime minister, and similar changes in Denmark and other EU countries suggest that there is a renewed focus on infrastructure, rebuilding manufacturing and supply chain renewal, rebuilding incomes and lives of workers and families, in Europe and the US. ...

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French nuclear force Rafale jets have $6.6 billion annual cost 2025. German leader chancellor Merz is considering sharing French nuclear arsenal for defense of Germany. Macron has met Merz 3 times and the discussions go on. Germany has removed its debt brake in its Constitution setup by Merkel, so that $ 1 trillion can be spent on infrastructure including defense spending. This report in the WSJ looks at the 290 warheads of France and 250 of Britain on submarines as deterrents with additional deterrent from US NATO nuclear forces. US has asked for burden sharing on conventional forces not nuclear forces. Yet Europe sees the US as less of a reliable ally under DJT in 2025, and considering building its own nuclear deterrent.

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James McCauley of the Washington Post looks at the drop in popularity of Emmanuel Macron by August 2017. After winning the election with 66% of the vote Macron appears to have stumbled. Experts attribute the decline to the way he has handled relations with the media by reducing contact, and appearing aloof. He handled the decision to continue with defense cuts for 2017 of $1 billion poorly by avoiding discussion and appearing undiplomatic in his response to the military. Military officials opposed the move, and openly discussed it in the news media, saying the cuts left France less prepared for its global responsibilities and for domestic terrorism. Other problems included the inexperience of newly elected members of parliament during the first session of parliament, leading to administrative chaos.

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Early opinion polls show Macron the more convincing candidate in the first television debate held in March with 29 percent in an Elabe poll, with Le Pen at 19 percent. An OpinionWay poll shows Macron more convincing at 24 percent and Le Pen at 19 percent. Polls show Le Pen winning 27 percent of the vote in the first round with candidate Fillon on the right and Melenchon, Hamon on the left splitting the vote. In the second round with two candidates the vote shift of other right and left candidates determines the outcome. The second round then hinges on whether French middle and working class voters see risks to their economic future in leaving the EU, and whether appeals to nationalism and anti-immigrant rhetoric works enough to draw support from a centrist candidate.

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Peter Muller and Dirk Kurbjuweit of Der Spiegel interviewed the European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker in June 2017. Juncker gave his views on the Trump rejection of the Paris climate change agreement, and Brexit following the losses for the Conservative party in the British parliamentary elections. On the elections in Netherlands and France, Juncker says the populists have still won millions of votes. Juncker says many politicians in traditional parties have parroted the talk of the populists, and in this way becoming populists rather than taking on the populists in the way Emmanuel Macron has done on the issues. Juncker is pushed to answer questions about the difficult relations before Brexit talks after his meetings with the British. Der Spiegel presents the idea of a confrontation and collapse in talks because the EU wants to talk about its citizens and billions of dollars owed and the British about future relations. With the uncertainty following elections in Britain a cloud hangs over Brexit talks. Juncker says when asked about Plan B, that it is upto the British now because the EU is ready to talk, even early the next day. ...

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This Explainer by Lisa Thomas-Darbois shows how the National Assembly is elected and how it works with the president and their respective powers under the Fifth Republic set up in 1958 during the Algiers Crisis and decolonization by Charles De Gaulle. In 1962 a constitutional amendment led to direct popular election of the president. De Gaulle was elected in 1965. Though De Gaulle resigned in 1968 much of the work of modernizing French agriculture from a backward local regional basis to a national technological basis was done by De Gaulle, and French infrastructure postwar rebuilding started. This was continued through the 5 year presidency of DeGaulle's assistants Pompidou and seven year presidency of Giscard Destaing till 1981, modernizing France over 2 decades. To get elected to the National Assembly one has to get 50% of the vote in the first round and 25% of eligible voters. In the second round only the top two parties and parties with more than 12.5% of vote participate. A change was made to make the president's term 5 years and have the election of the National Assembly after the presidential election. Under this change Macron was able to get a majority in the Assembly after his election as president in 2017. In the event the opposition parties get a majority in the National Assembly cohabitation happens and the prime minister is from the opposition ranks as is likely in 2024. This transfer authority on domestic policy to the majority in the Assembly with foreign policy run by the president. It happened twice under presidetn Mitterand and once under president Chirac. ...

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France restricts domestic flights to destinations that can be reached by 2 hours by train after extensive debate in the National Assembly on ways to implement climate change rules. Air France argued that this would affect jobs at the airline during the pandemic. Macron's climate commission had recommended a time of 4 hours by train. Other opinion was that the earlier four hour restriction would restrict access for people in the distant Massif Central mountainous regions of France. The flights from Orly airport south of Paris will use the new rule so flights to Bordeaux or Nantes from Paris will no longer operate. Paris to Nice with 6 hours train ride, and Toulouse with 4 hours will not be affected. Connecting flights from Charles De Gaulle airport will not be affected. Austria has a 30 euro tax passed by a Conservative-Greens coalition that is placed on flights over 217 miles. No flights to destinations that can be reached in 3 hours by train. Netherlands is also working on similar rules, such as does it make sense for a flight Amsterdam to Brussels that is a distance of 93 miles. That Brussels flight is now banned. ...

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The European Recovery Fund package finally gets settled after long negotiations over the weekend. It is settled by lowering the nonrepayable direct aid to countries hardest hit by the pandemic of 500 billion euros the initial target to 390 billion euros. The change was made to meet Dutch demands that are based on right wing parties in Netherlands critical of the deal and upcoming elections in the country. Mr. Rutte of the Netherlands held on to the end. He has been in power for about ten years by following the Dutch mood carefully. This time both Merkel and Macron, both France and Germany supported the 500 billion euro plan for nonrepayable aid to countries particularly in southern Europe that took the brunt of the pandemic- Spain, Italy and Greece. The EU's executive branch will now for first time issue debt on a large scale to fund this nonrepayable aid and additional loans of 360 billion euros. There is also a multiyear EU budget of 1 trillion euros for 2021 to 2027 designed to meet the goals of European recovery. The way the EU is setup a lone holdout or a small country like the Netherlands with the help of two other small countries Denmark and Sweden could hold up the agreement against the interests of the larger nations Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal. Poland and Hungary also strongly supported the 500 billion euro target for nonrepayable aid. The combined population of these countries is about 314 million compared to just 17 million for Netherlands, 10 million for Sweden, and 6 million for Denmark. In addition Merkel has recovered her footing in Germany after the pandemic and most right wing parties in Europe have lost ground during the pandemic. That Mr. Rutte could push this far in the face of the need to show solidarity at a time like this shows weakness in the fabric and structure of the EU, and its rules and organizing charter. Normally a blocking minority would need 4 countries and 35% of the population to block EU proposals supported by the majority. This could be used if the blocking is seen as not in the common interest. In recent years most decision are made with unanimity, but this is one in which solidarity needed to be shown without the long negotiations taking some of the spirit and vigour behind the earlier plan. ...