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S. Gurumurthy of the Hindu points out the dangers of economic growth without job creation in a country like India. He points out that demonetization- removal of high denomination currency notes- came at a critical time when the economic growth was not creating enough jobs. He points to the five year period till 2010 as having created 2.7 million jobs with 8.5% growth. Even though with lower growth of 5.4% in the period 1999-2004 the job growth was for 60 million jobs created. Had demonetization not happened he says, the economy could have seen the problems the U.S. faced in 2008 with a bubble developing in the real estate market. The fundamental shift of the economy to digitization of payments, increase in tax receipts brings more of the informal economy- with a size of 50% of the economy generating 128 million jobs ten times the formal sector - into the formal economy. A step that is key for India to see rapid growth in the decade ahead. The slackening of the economy for a year is part of  a needed long term plan, says Prof. Gurumurthy, visiting IIT faculty in Bombay, just as liberalization was in the 1990's.  Some errors were made in implementation and flow of credit to the informal economy, including by the RBI, yet the fundamental shift through demonetization served a good purpose. Gurumurthy says, sadly this is missing in the current politicized debate.  ...

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This report in the WSJ looks at the war in Ukraine in July 2022 as seen from the Ukrainian side. Ukraine has 12 million people displaced or refugees, about a third of the population, particularly in the east. Most of the refugees are women and children. Cities in the east and the south face artillery attacks and airspace over Ukraine lacks the air defense systems that would help Ukrainians live lives not constantly under threat of bombs going off. In this situation and with the massive damage, there is also a breakdown of trust on both sides. Not just the leadership but 93% of the population is against negotiating a peace till the territories lost in the south and the east are regained, says this WSJ report. This report shows Zelensky describing his typical day, his yearning for peace, but serious fears after the failure of the 2014 peace agreements with Russia that Russia is simply negotiating agreements so that it can consolidate its control over territory till it launches another attack. This means that the war will go into a counter offensive phase in the south where Ukraine has its economic links on the Black Sea around the port of Odessa. Ukraine will want to recover the territories in the south so that its future on the Black Sea is restored to what it was before. The eastern part of Ukraine in the Donbas region is being integrated into Russia and Ukraine may seek to improve its position in that area around major cities that it controls and controlled till losses in June.  The lack of air defense systems over Ukrainian airspace that would protect civilians and people of Ukraine in the countryside and cities is what hurts Ukrainians the most. It is the reason why there are so many refugees and displaced people. The US and European countries have failed to provide the air defense systems that would have protected the civilian population and created the worst aspects of this war in the number of refugees having to flee their homes and seeing them destroyed. Years from now people may look back and say this is the worst aspect of this war apart from the claims of either side. As Lincoln said during the civil war in the US in his annual message of 1862 the land is there for ever, and this generation will pass away. The conflicts and tearing apart that this generation of Russians and Ukrainians have experienced, may not be the feelings of future generations.  ...

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The WSJ's Kimberley Strassel says a Republican winning the White House in 2016 depends on how well the party appeals to white working class voters and the struggling middle class living from paycheck to paycheck. She says Speaker Paul Ryan is taking the right step in coming up with the idea of the Kemp Forum on Expanding Opportunity event in January 2016. Presidential candidates attending the forum are Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich. Not attending are Ted Cruz and Donald Trump who are getting support from voters who are discouraged by establishment policies. Strassel says upward mobility for the midddle and working class is emerging as the No. 1 issue in the election, especially with Hillary Clinton leading the Democrats.

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Local media reports in China say president Xi Jinping has lost some credibility in his efforts to manage the stock market, with the prevailing sentiment that all government decisions require his approval, and the Tinajin warehouse explosion. One of the errors insiders in the Party say was to bring decisions normally under the prime minister Li Keqiang, such as decisions related to economic policy making and financial markets, under committees headed by Xi Jinping. As a result the perception that a good economic team was running the economy has been lost. Experts say the current leadership faces increasing pressure after events in July and August 2015, with sharp slowdown and efforts to use stock markets to reduce debt of state owned companies.

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The trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange has seen a jump in the last week from an average of 4.26 billion shares traded daily in 2011, to an average daily volume of 7.31 billion shares in the first ten days of August 2011. Analysts say this reflects market anxiety, trading on conviction now compared to the light trading and a rising market in the earlier part of the year. The jump in volume also looks ominous as individual investors pull back say analysts.

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Britain's prime minister Boris Johnson and his negotiating team meet EU president Ursula Leyen for dinner in Brussels on December 8, 2020, to get over fundamental differences for a Brexit deal. This report in The Guardian describes the details of that dinner meeting.  Boris Johnson told parliament that the European Union was asking Britain to be the only country in the world not to have sovereign control over its own fishing waters. He said the EU was also asking that if the EU were to pass a new law that Britain does not comply with they would have the right to  automatically punish Britain or retaliate. On the issue of environmental and other laws that relate to the EU and Britain they are both at the same level today. The EU is worried that in future competition between Britain and the EU in trade and business Britain could relax environmental or other laws to gain an unfair advantage. Boris Johnson and his Conservative party back benchers insist that Britain should have sole right to make its own laws. France's Macron introduced the idea of automatic retaliation as a way to get Britain to keep a level playing field. Both sides see this as a negotiating tactic, hence the dinner meeting as a way to let top negotiators including the leaders to set an informal tone to the final stage of tough negotiating. Merkel made her own remarks to the German parliament saying she was willing to let the negotiations collapse if Britain rejected the EU approach. Merkel stated that if Britain insisted on certain conditions EU could not accept she was willing to let Britain leave without an exit agreement. This way if something went wrong Merkel would not take the blame.   ...

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The 41 year old actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky, is elected president of Ukraine winning 73% of the vote, compared to 24% for Petro Poroshenko. He plays a fictional Ukrainian president in a popular television comedy Servant of the People. Zelensky's team has promised a new era in which political and business interests are unable to interfere in the judicial system. Poroshenko made similar promises but failed to live upto them. A member of the Zelensky team Ruslan Stefanchuk, says "we need to cut the lines between the presidential administration and the courts and prosecutors."

Many of the countries in Eastern Europe that emerged from the fall of the Soviet bloc, face similar challenges. Zelensky emerged as Ukrainians were struggling with the issues of corruption and deteriorating relations with Russia following a separatist movement in the eastern part of Ukraine supported by Russia. 

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This report in the NYT looks at the support for the AfD stalled at about 11% nationwide but closer to twice that in East Germany where years of neglect have led to voters shifting to far right parties. The view is presented that there is a core hard right of 10%. Yet it ignores or prefers to overlook what happened in the east which provides the real clues to what happened, so that future policy could be designed to address social goals in a way that never happened in Germany. This is in line with developments in China where president Xi is addressing social goals after years of tech and infrastructure expansion that neglected rural areas and urban poor. It is in line also with the same action taken to address social goals in US president Biden's $3.5 trillion workers and families plan. Social Democrats under Mr. Scholz and a younger generation represented by the Greens have the same challenges facing them to come up with the plans to correct these problems in Germany and with a plan designed for the neglected eastern part of the country. Helmut Kohl pushed for reunification of Germany. With the collapse of the Berlin Wall the momentum was set for this to happen. Yet looking back over that period since 1990, German chancellors and administrations for three decades from both CDU and SPD have failed to invest and create opportunities in eastern part of Germany. It makes German reunification an empty concept looked at from outside. The previous administrations including Kohl and Merkel relied too much on market capitalism to do what it has been shown not capable of doing- tackling social goals and economic crises, much less  political storms such as creation of GDR following Soviet army entering Berlinin 1945. Much commentary on the issues in east Germany show people there left to themselves after mass migration out of the east to the west leaving older people and pensioners in the east, and a sense of being ignored or forgotten. US president Biden said today in ther UN General Assembly- "Our shared grief is a poignant reminder that our collective future will hinge on our ability to recognize our common humanity and to act together." And he went on to say the next ten years to 2030 "will quite literally determine our futures."  The Social Democrats under Scholz and the Greens under Baerbock and Habeck have to come up with plans and programs that will increase ease of living and opportunities for a thriving eastern part of Germany, after the failures of market capitalism in its unregulated form during the Merkel years and predecessor administrations. ...

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U.S. president Trump's executive order reversing parts of the Clean Power Plan of president Obama may extend the life of older coal powered plants, but overall it is unlikely to change the shift away from coal for the U.S. utility industry. It will do little to reverse the market forces that are leading to a shift to natural gas for the utility industry with the increasing availability of natural gas. In this WSJ report Cassandra Sweet cites Duke Energy Corp. CEO Lynn Good, who says natural gas for Duke will be the leading fuel followed by coal by 2026, and natural gas now makes up 28% of its mix with coal at 34%. He says a $11 billion ten year investment in natural gas and renewable energy will go through regardless of what the Trump administration does because of the economics- the declining price of renewables, the competitive price of natural gas. Companies are loath to base their long term plans on changes in administration as they see the economics dictated by advances in technology, and the general sense that cleaner energy is here to stay for the long run. Already in the U.S. 34% of total power supplies are from natural gas and 30% from coal for 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Department. This may change slightly as coal is used where it is economical and makes sense without the carbon rules, yet the long term trend is clearly towards natural gas. ...

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Even with the best US effort heroin production increased to 9000 tons in Afghanistan says this report in The Economic Times. Indian coast guard and Gujarat anti-terrorist squad size large amounts of heroin at Mundra port and along the Porbandar coast.  Afghanistan has a 2000 kilometer border with Iran and another 2000 kilometer border with Pakistan. There is now increased risk of this activity along India and Sri Lanka's coastlines and borders, says the Economic Times. Much of the colonial period was marked by British traders use of opium from Bengal and other parts of India in illegal activities in China through Chinese ports for sale of opium -leading to the Opium wars in 1850 with China's feudal monarchy and eventually to China turning to the CCP. This was conducted under the British East India Company and condoned under the British Empire- making it one of the worst activities of colonial powers in history. Some of the same activities are being conducted and condoned by countries in the region. A multinational allied task force Combined Force 150 keeps track of the oceans in the North Arabian Sea and in the Horn of Africa. More naval forces are needed from India, the US, UK, Australia, Japan and other countries to keep the oceans safe and clear, and protect people in the region. ...

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This report shows the level of coronavirus testing as of March 27, 2020 in different states in the U.S. The U.S. testing program and supplies of tests are being ramped up quickly. About 65,000 tests are being done on Americans each day. The need is for 150,000 tests a day say public health officials. Testing is slow in California compared to aggressive testing in New York which has 60% of all coronavirus cases. California with twice the population of New York has done 77,000 tests compared to 122,000 in New York. Texas has done only 21,000 states by comparison. Every week new testing technology is being developed in different labs, medical companies, and universities. Including tests that can be conducted quickly and not requiring health workers or health workers with protective gear. Speed of processing test, least point of testing contact, and the protocol for quarantine, are all part of the testing and isolating of clusters mechanism to tackle the virus. This is critical in the coronavirus action plan being developed by Dr Brx of the U.S. White House team. ...

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A Feb. 2011 NBC/Wall Street Journal shows only a small number of Americans think cuts to Medicare are necessary to "significantly reduce" the deficit. Only 18% favored cuts, 54% opposed cuts to Medicare to reduce the deficit. Only 22% said cuts to Social Security were needed, 49% said they were not needed. Tea party supporters by a 2 to 1 margin said significant cuts to Medicare were "unacceptable." What measures should be taken to put the entitlement programs on a sound financial basis? On this point over half of the people polled said they favor increasing the retirement age to 69 years by 2075, up from 66 now. A larger number said they support reducing Social Security and Medicare payments to wealthier Americans. Experts say these two measures could eliminate 60% of the underfunding of Social Security. On the issue of collective bargaining rights of public workers, this poll shows 62% of the people polled oppose effforts to weaken collective bargaining. This is similiar to the CBS/New York Times poll results of Feb 24, 2011 on this issue. See the group for this. This poll show a big yellow caution light for Republicans zealously advocating cuts to entitlements. Both polls show lack of public support for reducing the collective bargaining rights of public workers....

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In August 2023 the Ukraine war is reduced to small unit tactics after a stalled Ukraine offensive. The results of the war over the last 2 years is a broadened NATO with Sweden and Finland inside NATO increasing the borders of NATO with Russia. On the Russian side some of eastern Ukraine on the Black Sea and the Dnieper river are now part of Russia in addition to the Crimea. The Ukraine offensive is stalled. Russia's economy has shifted from its western European orientation for energy exports and auto other imports to a Chinese orientation.  These changes are likely to remain with a shift of supply chains back from China and its suppliers to the US and the EU. This acts to restore the factory bases in the US and EU and revive communities built around factories in small towns across the region. This will bring back regions in the EU and the US that suffered from the loss of factory jobs and public services they supported. Overall this is a healthier situation for the people of Europe and the US. For China also the situation reverses to better quality yet slower growth, and a pause to take stock of the immense changes that happened with explosive growth in trade- the damage to the environment, floods and heat waves from climate change, the explosion in debt to three time its GDP, higher unemployment, rural poverty, and devise solutions to these problems. The war has accelerated the unraveling of the existing economic, social and trade arrangements that had stopped working for many years. ...

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Experts say the election of Manuel Lopez Obrador as president of Mexico in June 2018 makes it easier to renegotiate the NAFTA treaty because Mr. Obrador's centre left positions to improve factory conditions and with it factory wages in Mexico, align better with Mr. Trump's goal of raising labor standards in Mexico. Robert Lightnizer, U.S. Trade Representative who leads the U.S. in talks wants to see 40% of the content of auto vehicles that trade duty free within the North American trading bloc of Mexico, Canada and the U.S. to be made at a particular wage level. The wage level the U.S. discussed is $16 an hour. The wage in Mexico is about $8 an hour on average in 2017, with parts plants at $4 an hour, according to the Centre fro Automotive Research. Mr. Obrador is more likely to favor the higher wages for Mexican workers because of his close relationship with the unions in Mexico. Mr. Obrador takes office Dec. 1, 2019, yet a leading member of Mr. Obrador's team will now join in the negotiations as soon as Mr. Obrador is declared president elect by end of June.   ...

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The old NASDAQ in 2000 cannot be compared to the new NASDAQ in 2015 because the companies in the index have changed, and the proportion of tech and health care companies has also changed. Healthcare and consumer companies are now 37% on the index compared to 18% in the NASDAQ index in 2000. Tech is a much smaller component of the NASDAQ, declining from 64% to 43%. And three companies Apple, Google and Microsoft, makeup 20% of the index, with Amazon, Facebook and Intel added making that 30% of the entire 2015 NASDAQ index. Only 3 of the top ten companies in the 2000 NASDAQ are around in 2015 NASDAQ index- Intel Corp., Microsoft, and Cisco Systems. Yahoo, Oracle, Dell, Sun, JDS, WorldCom are no longer the top 10 companies in the index as they were in 2015. The speculative momentum stocks such as Netflix and Tesla make up 0.38% and 0.33% of the NASDAQ in 2015. In healthcare part of NASDAQ 2015 companies such as Gilead Sciences and Amgen are in the top ten.

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James West, energy analyst at Barclay's Capital, who co-authored a survey of 402 companies, estimates that the oil industry will spend $490 billion in 2011 to search for and extract oil and gas. This is up 11% from 2010. This spending includes increases in costs for finding and extracting oil and gas in hard to reach areas. The largest companies, including Exxon, Shell, Chevron and BP, are expected to increase spending by 16% to $108.6 billion. Chevron recently announced a 29% increase in spending, partly to develop large off-shore projects in Western Australia, the South China Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

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The Asian-American voters are significant in some states such as New Jersey 7% of voters, Nevada 9%, Minnesota 3.1%, and California 15%. Compared to the 2012 election this is the fastest growing demographic up 16%. With lower immigration from Mexico this is likely to continue for several decades. Nationally it is 4% but growing rapidly. The Asian-Americans come from countries such as India, China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines. Seib says Trump has lost as many Asian-Americans as he has gained whites who chant "build that wall," by using such rhetoric. The Asian Americans are about 48% moderate and about 23% liberal, 19% conservative. Many are in the tech and white collar fields, in the suburbs of major cities including the South. Its this location that can make them an important influence. The Democratic Party has reached out to these generally better educated voters, who have heard about building that wall with unfavorable views- 40% saying they would vote against a person with "anti-immgrant views" regardless of what the other issues are. The early 2016 poll done by the Asian and Pacific Islander Vote project shows 61% having unfavorable views of Trump and 61% having favorable views of Clinton in 2016.   ...

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Modi's success in tackling problems of electricity development in Gujarat state and the model for India, as a new Modi administration is elected for India in 2014. Other areas that are the focus for development include high speed rail and transportation, other infrastructure development, creating new jobs in manufacturing. Modi made three trips to China in the last decade as a four term chief minister of Gujarat state (similiar to a governor of a U.S. state), and has adopted a China type focus on infrastructure development and manufacturing for the western state of Gujarat, which was part of the old Bombay state in British times. Mumbai, the new name for the old British settlement of Bombay on the west coast, is about 300 miles south of the major Gujarat city of Ahmedabad, at one time a major textile manufacturing center. Mumbai and commercial minded people from Gujarat occupy a role similiar to Shanghai in India's economic development. Under British times trading minded Gujaratis settled on the east and southern coast of Africa, in the Persian Gulf, with retail businesses. Of India's two largest companies the Reliance Group made its early start in textiles in Gujarat in the seventies, set up by a young emigrant who returned from the Persian Gulf. The Tata Group which owns Land Rover was set up by a Parsi immigrant community in Gujarat. Its founder Jamshedji Tata set up India's steel industry under the British at the turn of the century. The Parsis settled in Navsari, Gujarat, immigrating from Iran and other parts of the Persian Gulf centuries ago. When the media talks of Modi's origins as a tea seller's son, one has to take this in the context of the origins of people such as Reliance founder Ambani who was the son of a schoolteacher from a rural village in Gujarat. With about a 1000 mile coastline facing the Persian Gulf, Gujarat has been known to engage in the textile trade long before the arrival of the Portuguese and the British in the 1600's, and before the Muslim period from the 1300's. Many Gujaratis settled in Mumbai and are a key part of the commercial, financial center in the city. Just as Britain with its commercial centre of London evolved over centuries with commerce affecting attitudes towards democracy, free media and capitalism compared to more feudal France, Gujarat and Mumbai has evolved in a similiar manner compared to other states in the north of India. With all the media infomation and misinformation on Modi's mishandling of communal riots little has been said of the unique position of Gujarat and Gujaratis in the industrial development and modernization of India. Compared to other parts of India historically there is a greater degree of tolerance in Gujarat for other communities, similiar to Britain's compared to France and Spain, because of this commercial outward looking orientation for new ideas. ...

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Reps. Eric Cantor (Va.), Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) and Paul Ryan (Wis.) have jointly written a book "Young Guns," that completely distances the new leadership in the Republican party from the leaders of a prior generation. The book says the older Republican leadership "betrayed its principles," by not controlling spending. See the the link to David Stockman who has criticized previous Republican administrations for their attitude to spending, including President Reagan. A recent NBC/WSJ poll shows only 24% of those polled seeing the Republican party positively. The idea is to differentiate the younger leaders as new voices in the party, different from the party's previous role.

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Buddhism gives people the opportunity follow a path to spiritual life and peace of mind without getting involved in politics. Here NYT provides a look at Buddhism in China as it is practiced to get people to set better moral standards to rejuvenate China. The founder was a small child traveling across China with his mother searching for their father after the Japanese invasion of China. He joined a monastery they passed by. After the Communist takeover of the mainland in 1949 and during the years of the Cultural Revolution he was active in a missionary movement for Buddhism and Buddhist culture in Taiwan.  Chinese president Xi Jinping has met with him 4 times and supports the movement in China as part of an effort to rejuvenate China and improve moral standards lost during the rush to modernization and industrialization. At one point even telling him "I have read all the books you have sent me Master."  For this movement to revive Buddhist culture and ethics the politics is secondary, what matters is the quality of people's lives and their finding fulfillment by living lives that honor the values of a good society that is caring for fellow beings, and practicing good moral standards.  Imagine a 100 acre facility that holds 2 million books in Yangzhou, including 100,000 volume collection of Buddhist scriptures. Built in two valleys of bamboo forest the temple in Yixing  is special, the atmosphere quiet and reflective, and with reading rooms, rooms for calligraphy, for tea. It was started in 2006 and is active with many people visiting the temple. In Buddhist countries such as Burma, Sri Lanka, Thailand, wherever Buddhism has got entangled with politics the purity and purpose of Buddhism has suffered. Putting Buddhist culture, learning, and quality of living first is essentially the way the Buddha had meant it to be. In a rare and profound way both Mr. Xi and the founder of this Buddhist group have made a unique and lasting connection to rejuvenate China after 100 years of tumult, war, and strife that started with the wars at Chinese ports in the 1850's, and 50 years of rush to industrialize that made weary and weakened the soul of a nation. During the period post coronavirus pandemic China and the Chinese people may find in Buddhist culture much that can enhance the quality of life just as the European nations France, Britain and Germany look back to their own culture and tradition for rejuvenation and renewal. In this sense even as China faces a West determined to protect its industry and technology, and returns to its roots, China can find a way to its own roots, confident that the period of European domination can no longer torment its soul. ...

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Food inflation is affecting a wide range of countries not just poor countries. Even in the US where on average only 7% of the income of households goes to food, for poor and lower income households this can go up to over 30%. In Turkey with a high inflation rate of 80% in June over prior year, the problems of food inflation are severe. Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and other Arab countries get most of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia through Black Sea ports. Across Asia the situation varies with less food inflation in countries that are self sufficient in food production such as China, India and Vietnam, to countries such as Sri Lanka where inflation is severe and takes up most of the budget for ordinary families. Lebanon is an extreme example with the collapse of its economy and 332% inflation with food inflation severe. Ethiopians spend about 45% of income on food. Somalia faces drought conditions and severe food shortages. This part of Africa is the most fragile and most prone to breakdown. Being self sufficient in food was an important goal for countries that faced famine in the past such as China and India- this has produced good results. Even in Europe small countries that make their own food with agriculture getting importance such as France and Switzerland the benefits are immense. Switzerland food inflation is as low as 1.5% lowest in the world. Where as in Africa this importance of agriculture has been neglected the consequences are seen today. In Latin America Argentina and Brazil are exporters of soyabeans and other food. This helps insulate them from the worst effects of the food crisis.     ...

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Biden gave a passionate and vigorous speech at the Democratic Convention in Chicago, Aug 19, 2024 comparable to what he did in the State of the Union message to the US Congress and people in January 2023 and January 2024. Gone was any semblance of the bad day at the debate that came after covid symptoms. The first night at the Democrat Convention brought before Biden's speech speakers Hillary Clinton, Governor Beshear of Kentucky, touching personal accounts of trauma of women who were denied abortion in rape and incest and mother's health conditions, Steve Kerr, US Coach men's basketball team at the US Olympics, and three members of Congress. Steve Kerr said it was the duty of Americans to protect American democracy and the respect for the dignity of people, workers and families, that is part of the values of the American people for two hundred years, values Biden exemplified and Kamala is shaped by. Ashley Clinton reminded people of her father's love for the country and family- telling the country how her father took the train from Washington D.C. to Wilmington Delaware just to see Ashley, Jill and the family for her birthday when she was just seven years, stayed for a few minutes at the station and after blowing the candles headed right back to D.C. Dignity, decency, values, personal sacrifice, courage, these are the values that Coach Steve Kerr said America expected from its leaders. Thes are the values of Joe Biden of Delaware as he went through 50 years int he US Senate, 8 years as Vice President and his term as president. And above all Biden used this experience to pass legislation  for the Renewal of America that makes him many speakers say the most consequential president since FDR. ...

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Research in Motion's new CEO, Thorsten Heins, says he has revamped the leadership team and his focus will now be on execution. He says that when he joined the company in 2007 it operated more like a startup. Heins wants to see founder Lazaridis in more of a visionary role. Product cycle times will be shortened as the teams will be more focussed from now on, says Heins. Heins sees one key part of RIM's strategy being getting new phones into the hands of users. Most Blackberry users have older model phones and Heins says only 10-15% of users know about the Blackberry 7 phones.

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Nestle will create a new subsidiary called Nestle Health Science and a research organization Nestle Institute of Health Sciences, "to pioneer a new industry between health and pharma." Nestle sees disease prevention as a big part of healthcare in the future. The new company with an investment of 500 million euros over the next ten years will work to develop new nutritional products for diseases such as diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular and Alzheimer's. After sale of its stake in Alcon unit to Novartis for $28.3 billion, Nestle is almost debt free and can invest in developing new nutritional products without needing a return in the short term.