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German chancellor Merz makes his frist trip to Asia starting with India. He sees India and Germany as natural partners and shifts the focus to India from China. Under Merkel Germany remained focused on China. This is changing now that Merz is chancellor. The winds of change are also blowing and the war in Ukraine, the distancing of the US under DJT, US and Chinese restrictions, require this change and Modi, Merkel step up to create anew strategic partnership. The EU and German trade is now set to increase significantly as India modernizes its economy. Merz and Modi see less dependence on Russia for oil and gas and defense needs. India seeks German technologies and capital to industrialize its economy. The scope is immense and both sides are at an historic opportunity. Merz is afar cry from the Merkel years when Germany never grasped India's potential and failed to invest in the German economy. Merz has put forward a $1 trillion plan to invest in modernization of Germany and India is the partner Germany has chosen as central to its plans. This brings the entire EU close to India and its aspirations to be a modern economy like the EU. This is a long term project that began today in Ahmedabad with the two leaders at ease at a Kite Festival in Ahmedabad after Merz visited Gandhiji's Sabarmati Ashram. And Merz showed he understood India-"We are in complete agreement in our assessment of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," Merz said. At the same time, he understood how India's dependence on Russian oil and gas had happened only recently. "Obviously, it is not that simple in India, and I am the last person to visit other countries wagging my finger at them." The patience is there as there is a meeting of minds for what is the largest project of its kind to 2037 and 2047 for 2 billion people pooling technologies, capital and talented engineers. ...

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The New World- Russia's new relations with US as US accepts Russia as a Northern European Power and Russia respects Monroe Doctrine of 1823 of American power in the western hemisphere in return. What the Europeans do not understand is that the new US policy will bring more oil to the market and cut oil prices to lows that will reduce the cost of living in US and Europe, and will also give Russia fewer dollars to fight the war in Ukraine. Denmark only foolishly calls it the end of NATO if Greenland becomes American as this will only make it difficult for the European nations against Russia. As DJT pointed out NATO is not much without the US and the US intends to stay with NATO. Germany had a long conflict with Denmark over Schleswig Holstein. Norway has disputed Denmark's claims to Greenland  till 1921.US Navy explorer Rear Admiral Peary discovered northern Greenland and claimed it for the US  in 1880's, and every US administration since 1867 with Seward till Harry Truman a Democrat in 1946 has wanted Greenland for the security of the US eastern seaboard, and called it in the words of the US Commanders in Chief in 1946 "completely useless for Denmark," vital for US security across the Atlantic from Greenland. ...

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Vladimir Medinsky of Russia, 54 years, sees the Ukraine war though a different lens. He is the head of the negotiating team for Russia with Ukraine in Istanbul. He sees as an example that Russia prevails in long wars- the 21 year conflict of Peter the Great with the Swedish Empire 1700-1721. The Battle of Poltava in 1709 led to the Russian victory even though the war ended in 1721, with Russia not Sweden dominant in the Northern Baltic region.

 

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Two professors from Northwestern University from Slavic Languages and Literature, and from Economics, look at the cultural outlook of Russians in the recent period of the Bolsheviks and of Putin, that takes on a attitude of ruthlessness in the Bolshevik period writings of Sholokhov and Lenin. They contrast it with the works of other writers in Russian literature such as Tolstoy, Turgenev and Chekov, which provide the basis of humanism and concern for individual suffering. Morson and Schapiro say Russia is different in that unlike the US and to some extent Britain and the Netherlands which are commercial societies based on a shopkeepers mentality of trade and commerce, Russia tends to look at the state in a different way. Individual interests are not paramount according to this view in Russia, it is the state that matters.  Yet this has limited use as theory because it is also true that a lot is shared by all human beings and societies. There is a English saying that "power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." Leaders start out differently and change over long periods of power, the power tends to isolate them and corrupt them. Mistakes are made after decades in power that can push back the country's development. The Russian president is no exception and may have understood history and literature in a Russian context but long periods of power may have led to the kind of isolation that led to the severe miscalculation in Ukraine leading to a prolonged war and so much destruction on all sides. This has extended to the effects of the war in countries that depend on wheat from Russia such as Turkey, Egypt and much of the Middle East and Africa.         ...

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Japan release of 80 million barrels of oil from about 470 million in its total oil reserves for emergencies- March 18 2026. It gets 90% of its supplies from the volatile Middle East and little has been done about this leaving Japan in a situation similar to Germany when it under Merkel allowed an over dependence on Russian oil. The Nordstream pipelines built at cost of billions to transport Russian oil to Europe are now remaining unused after the Ukraine war in its 5th year. 470 million barrels or 254 days of reserves cannot support the Japanese economy in wars that stretch out over longer periods. 

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The Ukraine war is heading in the direction of a wider war, says Antonio Guterres, secretary general of the United Nations. "I fear that the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war, it is doing so with its eyes wide open." On the lack of strategic vision and near term thinking focused on gaining that slight advantage in the near term, and the actions of global finance, he said it was deeply irresponsible and immoral. He says a "radical transformation" is needed, as without it one side will pile up wealth and the other left on the wayside with crumbs. 

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Germany will provide Ukraine with $200 million for aid to internally displaced people. About 7 million people in Ukraine are internally displaced inside Ukraine. Most of the refugees are women, elderly and children. The internally displaced are in addition to the millions of people who are refugees in Poland and other countries.

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Ukraine is in a position after the refugee outflow and closure of some industrial operations to send energy to Poland, Romania, Hungary and other countries in the European Union. Ukraine is speeding up synchronizing power lines in Ukraine to that in Poland so that energy can be exported easily. Ukraine could send 1.6 gigawatts of energy a day to EU countries up from 350 megawatts today once the changes are completed to the energy transmission infrastructure. Ukraine energy is cheaper than energy produced in Poland because of nuclear energy plants in Ukraine from the Soviet period. 

Workers are restoring a now defunct power line from a 2 gigawatt nuclear plant in western Ukraine to a nearby Polish city. Projects that would take decades are being done in months with US aid. Energy exports could bring Ukraine $1.6 billion a year. 

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The problems for returning refugees and those left behind in Ukraine are shown in this report in the WSJ.

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Russia is seeking guarantees from the US that Ukraine will not join NATO. Russian concern is that NATO would put in missiles on countries along its border. A Russian buildup on its border with Ukraine continues with the prospect of an invasion. President Biden and president Putin of Russia will discuss ways to resolve the situation this week in a phone call.