LyrArc Article Gist
Impact of $100-$138 a barrel oil prices from Iran War on US economy is modest - stable unemployment inflation at 2.9% instead of 2.7% and decline by 4 tenths of a percentage point in GDP growth. This is the view of 50 economists at banks, companies and research consulting gorups surveyed by WSJ March 16-18 cited in both the WSJ and her inthe NYT. NYT says unless the prices reach $200 which is unlikely, there won't be a recession. The reason is that the US is self sufficient in oil needs and exports oil and gas to Europe, and now to India and Japan. In fact in the domestic economy oil producing states in the Permian Basin including Texas, Wyoming, New Mexico and state of Alaska will actually see more growth. US will also generate more revenue from oil exports. US will also be able to leverage the situation to bring Venezuelan production with additional investments in upgrading the Venezuelan oil fields from American oil companies. This will be more attractive at higher oil prices and revenue generated will be sent to benefit the Venezuelan people. What it does affect lis ow income people with long commutes to work in the US. ...

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The Trans Pacific Trade Agreement TPP adds so liitle, only 0.04% to Britain's GDP in 15 year from 2023, says the Office of Budget responsibility in Britain. It is this trade agreement ignoring American workers that Mr. Obama and Hillary Clinton pushed for leading to the Democrats defeat in the 2016 election. Most of the trade deals including ones with Canada and Australia add up to no more than 1% to Britain's GDP when the loss of the EU through Brexit means a loss of 4% of GDP for Britain. This is how much the trade deals were over hyped by the Brexiters Johnson and Sunak.

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The CDU gets 36% of the vote in the state of Saxony-Anhalt in east Germany. The FDP gets 7%. This was a result that surprised the CDU as the AfD party was polling well before the election, The result gives the ruling CDU party hope of doing better in east Germany where it had lost votes to the right wing AfD party. This was a crucial election ahead of German elections for a new government to replace Merkel. The Greens are polling well nationally.

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Moody's Investor's Service downgrades China's credit rating to A1 from Aa3. Moody's predicts a slowdown in growth for China. GDP growth for 1st quarter 2017 was 6.9%. Total debt has grown from 149% of gross domestic product in 2008, to 213% in 2013, and is now 253%, according to JP Morgan. The problem is that ever higher levels of credit have supported growth and more of this is coming from the shadow banking sector. Higher levels of debt in future years from the already high levels will weigh heavily on growth, leading to an eventual slowdown in the economy's growth rate.

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Germany's president Steinmeier is emerging as a key figure in the current effort to form a majority government in Germany under chancellor Merkel, reports Griff Witte in the Washington Post. This is because the FDP under Lindner with 11% of the vote has pulled out of the coalition talks, and the only alternative is for the SPD to change its position and agree to join the talks. Under Schulz the SPD has for 2 months turned down any effort to join the coalition talks. Partly because the SPD has not done well in recent elections and lost some of its worker base support. Some in the SPD have blamed this on the previous coalitions with the CDU party of Merkel. Steinmeier is a leader from the SPD who was foreign minister in the previous coalition of the CDU-SPD, and has greater influence on the SPD.  Steinmeier has pushed all parties to make another effort. This includes the SPD and Schulz now says the SPD shoulders "a responsibility to the country." After some prodding by Steinmeier and a 8 hour party meeting the SPD now says it will not say no to the talks. One SPD leader, a former mayor of Munich, says the SPD should be careful about what it says because we don't want to sound like "an agitated heap of chickens." In that case Schulz may step aside. ...

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Eurozone GDP declined by 0.6% for the fourth quarter of 2012, according to Eurostat. Full year 2012 GDP declined by 0.5%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. economy moved ahead at 4% growth in GDP for the second quarter 2014. The qualifier is that of this 1.66 percentage points was for increasing inventories, so that GDP growth excluding this was 2.3%. Still a large improvement over the negative 0.9% GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2014. Personal consumption expenditures growth was broadly even between clothing, housing and cars, contributing most of the 2.3% growth. Imports outpaced exports. Business and housing investment was modest for a small part of this 2.3%. Expansion of state and local government spending made up for decline in federal spending.

LyrArc Article Gist
LDP Komeito alliance wins 47 seats. Sanseito nationalist challenging LDP  government wins 14 seats in Japan parliamentary election July 2025. A tariff of 24% on Japanese car imports are increased by DJT to 25% in frustration over slow talks about an agreement. Japanese prime minister Ishiba is unlikely to remain in office more than a few months after losing majority in parliament. This means more uncertainty in the talks with the US over reciprocal and car tariffs. With the nationalists challenging the LDP's stiad party politics the LDP does not want to look weak in defending Japan's national interests.

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CSU leader and chief minister of Bavaria, Markus Soder, says no moral legitimacy to govern could be derived from Christian Democrats poor showing in the German elections. CSU is part of CDU/CSU alliance. CSU is the party in Bavaria with its state capital in Munich. Soder says CDU should not be attempting to form a coalition. A look at the map of Germany given on September 28 in NYT shows  CDU/CSU black mostly in southern Germany in Bavaria. The rest of Germany is all red Social Democrats with Greens in densely populated Berlin, Cologne and Hamburg, and AfD in Saxony/Thuringia in the east.  This shows that the 2% margin lead of Social Democrats over Christian Democrats under Merkel/Laschet does not reflect the true picture of this election. Without Bavaria the CDU has clearly lost this election by a large margin to the Social Democrats and Greens. This is a message also for the Free Democrats FDP as the FDP program belongs clearly to the past and the Merkel years of not moving Germany forward with investment to modernize Germany. The Greens and SPD promised voters in their programs loudly and clearly to invest big in modernization, and this is the mandate handed to them by voters. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US third quarter GDP was up by 2.9%.

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Immigration declined in the 1920's so that when FDR became president it was easier to build a working class coalition. After 1965 when president Johnson signed into law a bill that allowed family unification it was seen as not adding significantly to legal immigration. Yet in the period after 1965 millions of immigrants entered the US. This writer says the Democrats have forgotten that FDR built the Democratic worker base when immigration was not an issue. Today the rise in immigration has muddled the Democrats efforts to build back the working class coalition of FDR, with loss of support from workers and non college educated people who see migrants crossing the border as a serious problem.

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Shrinking GDP, tax revenue declines, and government aid to business and workers, is pushing U.S. debt to record levels. The Congressional Budget Office report shows federal debt to exceed 100% of GDP for 2020. It was 106% of GDP in 1946 after the financing of the second world war. Because the coronavirus pandemic is comparable to the second world war in scale of threat the government approved $2.7 trillion in aid relief.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. GDP growth of 4.1% for the third quarter of 2013.

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Reports from automotive experts in Stuttgart show German car companies and suppliers are not well prepared for the competition in electric cars. Their leadership may not be taken for granted in electric car world causing threats to jobs, tax revenue and growth. It was in a Stuttgart garage that Daimler and Maybach invented the internal combustion engine 136 years ago in 1884.

The Institute for Employment Research of the German government prediction is that if electric cars make up 23% of all cars sold in 2035 the country would lose 20 billion euros in output, 0.6 percentage of GDP, and 13% of its 870,000 auto industry workforce. This is because China is emerging as a formidable competitor in electric cars and has invested heavily in this sector.

As in broad band infrastructure shown in a recent report in Lyrarc, Germany has failed to invest enough in electric cars.

LyrArc Article Gist
In a nutshell why the economy is lopsided benefitting some, ignoring many. Labour's (salaries of all working people including professional classes) share of gross domestic income is 50% in 2026 the lowest since 1947, and profits highest since 1950 at 12%. Then you have hourly wages up 3% since 2019, while profits are up 50%. Greg Ip of the WSJ says the causes are complex and implications sobering. He says you can be a red blooded capitalist and still worry- is something wrong or unsustainable? Political stability, good governance structures, good institutional structures that were set up since Lincoln (the beginnings for the Industrial Revolution), by TR and FDR/Frances Perkins (the basic institutional and good governance structures of modern America and now the industrialized world that allied labor and capital with fairness to all), the entire setup needs to be rebuilt and renewed. The problems are also appearing in Europe and causing dismay, with calls for rebuilding and renewal. ...