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The new data security law that went into effect Sept 1, 2021, limits the amount of sensitive information China will share with foreign companies, and investors. All data related activities are subject to government oversight says this report in WSJ, including collection, storage, use and transmission. Companies in China now are reluctant to share information.  Because the law is ambiguous about what is sensitive information this makes companies more reluctant. The result is a China that is more opaque than before. It is driven by antagonism in the US over the effect on American workers of manufacturing and supply chains shifted to China. The response of the Chinese government is to turn the country inward, looking to self sufficiency, data security, and an environment that looks at foreigners with suspicion, says this report in WSJ. The pandemic has increased this view of foreigners in China, after China's experience with a deteriorating trade relationship with the US. Xi Jinping has not left the country since the pandemic started in January 2020. China has also seen an alarming drop in passengers going overseas or coming into China from 50 million in the first 8 months of 2019, to 1 million in the first 8 months of 2021, a drop of 49 million passengers, according to data from the Civil Aviation Administration. Government directives are to minimize foreign travel as a result of the pandemic. People in the US see the operations in China of companies such as Apple and now Tesla as a sign of how well the system of international cooperation is functioning without realizing that these companies never had the understanding of the history and culture of the country after two centuries of struggle against colonialism. When the situation takes a different turn as it has after Mr. Trump raised the issue of American workers and loss of manufacturing, and after the pandemic created unexpected distrust, there is very little these companies have to offer to keep the relationship between two of the world's population blocs, between North America and the closely related population of South America, with the people of China, a billion people on each side. This shows that the relationship cannot be left only to the business and private sector driven by profit and business interests, that all sections of the population in China and in the US need to be involved for a stable relationship with ongoing human and cultural contacts at all levels. ...

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Wang Yi, a senior adviser for China's decarbonization strategy and 5 year plan has this to say about China's approach to climate change. Yi says it is more important to focus on what actions are to be taken between now and 2030. Here he says China has outlined concrete steps that it will take that the world media has not covered in its coverage of COP26 Glasgow. Yi says China is making changes to its entire system not only its energy sector, across the whole society and the economy. Yet he says "nobody knows this." The working guidance document for carbon control China has put out says it will peak coal consumption by 2025.  Yi says it is unfair to ask China to close all coal powered plants, saying that if these plants with a life of 10 years were closed now who will pay for stranded assets and who will hire the laid off workers. He called attention to western nations failure to provide climate finance to China, India and developing countries. And he called attention to the the plans that by 2030 Chinese investment is to have 1200 gigawatts of installed solar and wind energy, more than the entire installed electricity capacity of the US. He says we are all in the same boat yet in different cabins, with some living in bigger space and consuming too much. ...

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The government sets a goal of reducing the number of automakers in China from 70 currently to a much smaller number by 2015. With slower growth in the Chinese market, 55 of these companies sell only 11% of the total cars sold, and no sales for 10 manufacturers. Foreign car companies are investing heavily and control 58% of the 18 million cars sold in China. Domestic car companies are faring poorly. Cherry sales dropped by 30% in November 2011 acccording to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Changan, Guangzhou Automobile Group and BYD have seen sales declines of 10% in 2011 for domestic sales.

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The supply chain chaos that is not good for American or European companies is shown here and how it is good only for warehouses that store these products for long periods. In March just 7% of the sea shipments from Asia to North America arrived on time, for Europe this was just 6%. This WSJ report says even big companies can expect to pay 5 times the freight rate than in 2019. New trouble looms in the form of more lockdowns in China with its zero covid policy and wage negotiations with dockworkers in Los Angeles and Long Beach. Stockpiling is one way to ensure availability which means additional costs. Vacancy rates for logistics property are at 4% in the US and 3.5% in Europe. All this points to the need for reshoring and bringing manufacturing back home. Companies need to invest $1 trillion over 5 years to relocate all foreign manufacturing based in China that is for markets in US, Europe and other parts of the world. As companies make plans for the shift to bring manufacturing back home, half the money going into real estate is still going to logistics properties and industrial logistics in the meantime, says this WSJ report ...

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Reliance India Limited to build 168,000 b/d Clean shale oil refinery in Brownsville Texas, to cut US trade imbalance of $58 billion with India by $15 billion a year, about 25%. Much of the product could be exported to India from the port of Brownsville in Texas. This helps improve relations with India as the US president was looking for ways to cut the trade deficit with India. The US India trade agreement is based on increased energy exports by US to India. US has a trade imbalnce with India of $58 billion which was an issue in recent trade talks with India. US wants India to get energy product from the US under the US India Trade Agreement. The president of America First Refining Trey Giggs says- "The United States has a surplus of light shale oil but a shortage of refining capacity designed to process it." This CLEAN refinery will strengthen the domestic supply chain. For India and Reliance (RIL) this is also a way to get out of the quagmire of getting supplies from the Middle East.   ...

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Chinese views on the India war of 1962 are shown at the Beijing Military Museum in a display effort "One Hundred Questions on the China-India Border Self-Defense Counterattack."  China's PLA on its 95th anniversary looks at the 33 day war and calls it a "counterattack." It also says China withdrew because its goals were accomplished of getting back the territory it lost since August 1959 to India, that on the Indian side "the decision making was in the hands of civilian officials who did not understand the military at all," and called it "chaotic." It also brings up the international situation that Russia supported both China and India in the conflict and India had the US on its side. It says PLA withdrew because of the difficulty of supplying the military in the Arunachal region at a great distance from China particularly after the famine that resulted from the Great Leap Forward. Today there is a clear chain of command and joint work by the Indian Air force and the Army, infrastructure to support mountain operations being built at rapid speed, and building of modern defense manufacturing capabilities for the airforce and army as shown at the Defense Expo in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, this week.  One of the first aspects of the border that one sees in the region is how close it is to large population cities and towns in India and how remote it is from large population towns and cities in China. In this sense China after the experience with Russian conflict before 1900, later a large Japanese invasion in 1931and 1937 appears to have responded to its period of semi-colonialism with an aggressive policy of extending its frontiers to regions that were throughout history acting as large buffers between India and China- such being the case of Tibet which was occupied in the 1950's leading to the war with India and a border dispute that had never existed before in history. Other aspects today are that in 1962 the PLA had fought the war against the Japanese and the war agains the Americans in Korea all within a 20 year period. In 2022 China has focused for 50 years on modernizing its economy. The supply chain in the Ukraine war showed shortcomings in the Russian army, and the difficulties of supplying forces at great distances. There is also the question of morale when it is about  miles of icy terrain at heights over 10,000 feet, thousands of miles away from major population cities and towns in China- for reasons of Russian and Japanese semicolonialism behaviour not to be found in regions that had never seen large armies in history such as Tibet or Arunachal or the Himalayan border regions. The distances tell much of the story- the distance from Shanghai, Shenzen or Beijing, to Tibet is over 4000 kilometers and the border region with India additional thousands of kilometers over some of the most rugged terrain on earth with only remote mountain communities existing in the most difficult environments.       ...

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The contrast between modernizing, developing East and South Asia ( from Mumbai to Shanghai) with war torn desolate West Asia (from Tehran and Baghdad to Kabul and Islamabad) is so striking today that it is something to reflect upon for wisdom and understanding. UAE support for Sudan's RSF Rapid Strike Force and Saudi support for the military - fracturing of Sudan, errors piled on errors led to the civil war in Sudan. A civil war in a country neighboring Saudi Arabia just across the Red Sea. Saudis and UAE were on opposite sides briefly after UAE pulled out of Sudan, UAE acting in this way to object against Saudis requesting US sanctions on UAE.  Once close partners have moved apart as they spread their influence in different conflicts in the Middle East.  This has not created a region that can grow economically without the disruptions of conflict in the way other parts of Asia have emerged to modernize the countries as in Taiwan, Korea, China and India. In neighboring Pakistan another conflict has emerged as partners split, with looming conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Yemeni Houthis are in conflict with the US and affect the Persian Gulf shipping lanes.  Iran with it's pursuit of weapons programs and nuclear weapons is using capital that is badly needed to improve the economic situation on arms buildup for the regime and for allies in Lebanon and Yemen, leading to protests and crisis. In this way the Middle East has failed to use oil wealth to modernize the entire region. Much of it was wasted in Iraq and now in Iran by policies that led to war and regional conflicts not modernization and technological transformation that has happened in Asia. The US has inadvertently becoming a partner to this as when the Obama administration helped fund Iran's economic rebuilding which was instead used to fund the military, and before that the Reagan administration support for Iraqi socialist ideology regime. The challenge for China was how to modernize after the Japanese invasion and civil war. In Korea it was how to modernize after the civil war. In India it is how to modernize with a smaller neighboring country Pakistan promoting terrorism and wars now with China's support. In Asia all these challenges were and are being met to steadily and persistently modernize to European standards with a singleminded focus and determination to meet the aspirations of the people with the US business working alongside Taiwanese, Korean, Chinese, and Indian governments and private industry. In West Asia various ideological (Iraq), military (Pakistan), religious Shiite (Iran), religious + modernizing (Saudi +UAE) with erratic leaders and little representation of the people, has destroyed the tranquillity of the region and destroyed democratic forms of government, destroyed bottom up education and health of the population except for priviliged groups in countries in the region of West Asia. Involvement of US and Europe or Russia in West Asia has led to distintegration of Soviet Union (Boris Yeltsin) and deindustrialization of US and Europe (Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama administrations) with business shipping out manufacturing to China while wars engaged the attention of American and European elites in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan. The entire west Asian scene for 1950-2030 has been a disaster, one massive disaster for all involved. The contrast with East Asia and South Asia reminds one of the words from Robert Frost of New England in Mowing- that reflects on the enduring value of honest labour. "My long scythe whispered to the ground. What was it it whispered? It was no dream of the gift of idle hours, or easy gold at the hand of fay or elf: anything less would have seemed too weak to the earnest love that laid the swale in rows. The fact is the sweetest dream that labour knows. My long scythe whispered and left the hay to make." ...

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The NYT covers the GAESA tourism enterprise of Cuba (that operates independent of the government of Cuba) that overinvested in Tourism at the expense of agriculture industry and infrastructure during the Obama administration, leading to collapse with Trump's 2014 embargo on Cuba. GAESA controls about 50% of Cuba's economy, run by military and people from Castro's family.  That left 121 hotels built in the boom years of tourism at 30 percent occupancy. The Iberostar high rise hotel is one of these hotels that rises over dilapidated housing in Havana, the Cuban capital. The investment in tourism by the GAESA enterprise that runs about 50% of the Cuban economy is 13 times what is spent on healthcare and education, says the NYT. The Castro family, Raul Castro family, runs this business venture that was started when the Soviet Union as sponsor of Cuba had collapsed by 1991. The NYT says this 'devolved' the ideas and promise of the revolution. "Devolved?" What kind of word to describe a complete loss of faith, and enormous failure with severe hardship for the Cuban people? It means the whole idea of communism or Marxist revolution has been proven false, even as it survives in Mexico and parts of Latin America. One can be against the Batista regime- similarly against corrupt regimes in Latin America or Asia- that ruled Cuba before the Castro Cuban revolution and still look for better choices and alternatives than what Castro came up with as an answer to Cuba's needs. Much of Latin America is suffering from the same problems of dictatorships and turning to Marxist alternatives - particularly the alternative put forward by Castro in Cuba- that has also destroyed the Venezuelan economy with Chavez's turn to Castro's Cuban revolutionary slogans and ideology. That came up with temporary solutions for the poorer sections of society, yet failed badly for all sections of society in the long term. How else can one explain one fourth of Venezuela's population and about the same of Cuba's leaving the country, some of those who left the critical human capital that would form the core of the human input to combine with capital and technology for advancing the economy. If Cuba were like the Dominican Republic or other parts of the Caribbean to depend on tourism for its national income then would it not be better to have friendly relations with the US, the main source of tourism revenue. The Obama administration was only holding up a failed idea by holding out a helping hand to tourism in Cuba knowing full well that a change to a Republican administration would simply lead to heavy investments in tourism at the neglect of infrastructure, public services and the economy, of health and education, to become large economic losses. This is what has happened.  As China and India have proven and are proving there are no magical ways to economic development- the same route that was traveled by the nations of Northern and Western Europe with scientific advances, technological advances, have to be taken, the same route that was traveled by the US in its industrial revolution and building of infrastructure, that same route has to be taken by all nations. It does not have to take a time period of centuries as in Europe. The US accomplished it faster with new technologies and vast human and natural resources over 100 years, Japan in 50 years, China in 30 years. India in 25 years ongoing.There is room for intelligent solutions to problems, for speed and tapping into new technologies, yet the same inputs of land, labour, capital and technology have to be put together for development. For states or regions, cities, within China and India, the same inputs, the same access to foreign investment and new technologies is the only route to rapid development. Long range plans are set in motion, decades of stable efficient, clean governance is put in place, and alliances are built with the nations of Europe and with the US. This road is traversed though hard work as Japan and China have done, and India today is thoroughly engaged in. ...

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Andy Grove makes this passionate plea for the dignity of workers in America in 2010. It is worth reading in 2020 what this founder of Intel Corp and pioneering spirit of Silicon Valley has to say. Andy Grove of Intel says there is something seriously wrong when the unemployment rate in the Bay Area is higher than the 9.7% national average for the USA. American companies have added jobs like crazy in Asia, but things are sputtering back home. Hon Hai has 800,000 employees and makes most of the electronic and computer products for American companies. Grove says startups are not the answer, unless they scale up and create jobs the way Intel did starting back in 1968, with a $3 million capital infusion by investors. The move from the first production model to mass production is critical, as companies hire thousands of people. Innovation and scaling up have to go together. He makes his point clearly by pointing out that Apple has 25,000 employees. For every Apple employee there are 10 employees in China working on Apple iMacs, iPods, iPhones. And he adds that the same 10 to 1 relationship applies to other U.S. tech companies. And here Grove asks the tough question by first posing an answer. He says it sounds like- no big deal, we keep the high paying jobs, we keep most of the profits, but what kind of society are we going to have with highly paid professional workers and lots of people unemployed? And he doesn't mention that there are a lot more young people unemployed. He says the US has become very inefficient at creating tech jobs, and it would be a great mistake not to act decisively early on. And adds that the investments in such areas as solar power and electric car batteries have to be made early on to maintain leadership in these areas. Grove faults academics like Alan Blinder and others who say loss of manufacturing jobs and whole industries was no big deal. The U.S. has forgotten the value of manufacturing jobs. He wants to see America focus on jobs and rebuild its industrial base. And less of transferring engineering knowhow and new technologies overseas, technology that can help bring innovation and scaling up of factories at home. In his view individual companies doing their own thing, in a misguided fashion that jobs don't matter, is not the answer to the situation we face. The industrial economies of Asia, China at the present day, have focussed on jobs and technology, and scaled up. Grove reminds readers of the situation in America in 1932, when jobless veterans demonstrating outside the White House in large numbers were dispersed by soldiers with live ammunition and fixed bayonets. This makes him shudder at the very thought of it, and brings back memories of his early years in Hungary, as a young man in 1956. Are we listening? ...

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A dwindling supply of basic smaller models and higher new car prices that peaked with shortages in the supply chain in 2022 are still problems in 2023, says this report in WSJ. Car manufacturers and dealers have not increased the supply of new cars. Higher interest rates and higher prices have led to a situation where car leases can run on an average car to $736 compared to $585 2 years before. This report also says new cars will run you an average of $51,000 up 30% over 2 years. The situation is really bad for buyers compared to the situation before the pandemic, after problems in the supply chain and profit seeking by car dealers. One lower income buyer cited here during the pandemic ended up with a lease of a basic Toyota Corolla for $500 with $236 in insurance payments costing $736 a month that was almost as much as her payment on rent, leaving little in savings or for other expenses. A significant part of inflation today can be attributed to the higher price of cars that constitute basic transportation for the large majority of buyers. Profit seeking behavior of carmakers and car dealers makes the situation that much worse as dealers seek to preserve the high profit margins of the last 2 years, that were the highest in a long time. ...

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How the expression "owning the libs" found its way into the current vocabulary and its meaning today. Seen as it relates to the Republican party and choices of some sections of the party to overemphasize the importance of so called culture wars on the difference of opinion about abortion and women, immigration, diversity. This happens in the context of the larger issues of national importance of national character, America's leadership in the world, America's position in science and technology in the world, American education, fighting climate change and rebuilding the nation's infrastructure. After the Ukraine war, differences with China, and the reorganization of America's supply chain in the world reducing concentration in China, creating new opportunities for America in science and technology leadership, a new attitude is taking hold. One that deemphasizes this type of "owning the libs" discourse that leads nowhere in rebuilding America to rebuilding America and also its European and Asian allies to prepare for a better, hope filled future. ...

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US- China trade relations 2025 and XI's rare earth minerals export restrictions response to US tariffs. DJT resonse was 100% tariff on China from 57%. After meeting Xi in Busan, South Korea, after the APEC meetings, US settled on 10% reduction in tariffs from the 57% tariffs on Chinese products down now to 47%. The 100% tariff was withdrawn by DJT and China's Xi settled on withdrawing restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals. The fentanyl tariffs are still in place and the WSJ editorial says not much is likely to happen on fentanyl action by China to stop exports of fentanyl that reach the US through Mexico. China says it will take in soyabeans exports. US signs agreement with Australia to develop alternative supplies of rare earth minerals. The WSJ says for tariffs action to work US should not tariff allies. Yet broad tariffs action was necessary as partners Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the EU, Canada and Mexico were also nations that created an unfair trade situation for the US. The US took action on all nations that take unfair advantage of free trade concepts to benefit them which also add to the credibility of tariffs as effort to restore fairness in world trade.  ...

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Former Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi (2012 -2022) and its senior official makes these comments at the Munich Security Conference on US shooting down Chinese spy balloons. Yi says it was "absurd and hysterical." He says China is going to put out a paper on Ukraine that would underline the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty. For China its crucial relations with Germany, trade with Europe are critical for its economy and growth. Germany's coalition government itself is divided on investment by China in the port of Hamburg, with the Greens not supporting that decision by chancellor Scholz. The issue for Biden is not simply the balloons. As The Guardian points out the US is pushing for China to withdraw or at least make conditional its support of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine that is a clear violation of the UN Charter that China says it supports. 

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Krugman points to the need for action on revaluation of the yuan, and sees the vote in the House of Representatives sponsored by Sander Levin as a necessary step to get China to act. He sees China as dragging its feet on this issue for many years, and the need to keep the heat on US policy makers, who have acted very passively on this issue. He describes the US policymakers as being infuriatingly, incredibly passive in the light of the Chinese inaction and stalling on currency appreciation. China he says denies manipulating the exchange rate, even as $2.4 trillion foreign currency was purchased by China. Krugman says China is not letting what is a natural process to unfold that would help the world economy as a whole to recover. Its manipulation of the exchange rate, is in effect subsidizing its exports at the expense of other countries like the US. See the link to Roubini, who shows how this is bad for China. Roubini says China will see a growth collapse in 2-3 years, if it does not change direction and let the yuan appreciate. He says it is in effect a large transfer of income from Chinese households to Chinese state owned companies which is dangerous because of increasing misallocation of resources and real estate speculation. See David Barboza for information on the real estate speculation of these Chinese state owned companies. When all this information is added up, it shows China's serious need to act. This would make possible a transition to a new model of development that relies on domestic consumption, and bettter allocation of resources and investment. ...

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China's tariff of 25% on cars imported from the U.S. is a  poor target says this report in WSJ, as most of the cars China imports from the U.S. are made by BMW, Mercedes and Tesla. China already has a 25% tariff on U.S. made cars.

The German cars are made at the Spartanburg plant and other plants of BMW and Mercedes in the southern U.S.

Tesla cars would also be hurt yet Tesla has supported the Trump administration tariffs as the existing 25% tariff makes it harder for Tesla to compete in the Chinese market. U.S. and European carmakers cannot hold more than 50% foreign ownership under China's rules in its auto market. As a result U.S. carmakers already have joint ventures in China and make most of the cars they sell inside China.

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German president Scholz visits Japan with 6 members of his cabinet. He will hold the inaugural session of intergovernmental consultations the two countries plan to hold every year. Japan is keen to understand the German position on relations with China. Prof. Shigemura of Waseda University says prime minister Kishida want to get a first hand understanding of Germany's policy towards China and on the Ukraine situation. Shigemura says Japan is deeply worried that Germany and other countries still want to cooperate with China, despite the problems seen in the Indo-Pacific region. Germany is seen as not having taken the steps to change its economic relations with China after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has not drawn criticism from China.

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India is a frugal innovator producing satellites for space at a fraction of the cost. NASA sent Maven, a probe to Mars for $671 million, it cost India $74 million to send an orbiter to Mars. Yet India as one of the few space exploring nations has only 3% of the market. Invest India, India's investment promotion agency says this will increase to 10% by 2030. In March India's NewIndia state owned space agency sent three dozen space satellites for OneWeb into space after launches by Russia were stopped. In 2023 the US is the largest by far in the space sector economy. China and Russia are also in this space.