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DW.com looks at the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1917. Colonial powers Britain and France create artificial states of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon by 1921 out of the collapsed Ottoman Empire, that are unmanageable even in 2026 with mix of different Islamic sects at odds with each other. Danger being of US and Europe getting sucked into the mess of five decades of wars in the Middle East.

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French colonial rule and suppression of independence protests at Setif, Algeria, 1945, which led to much of the Arab liberation writings that were to lead to 5 decades of wars in the region. Many of the coups in Iraq and Syria and in Egypt by military men were a result of this period of colonial rule in the Arab world in Iraq, Syria, and other Middle Eastern countries of the French and the British. The anti-colonial writings of this period had one bad aspect the fervor led to an uncritical acceptance of the idea that achieving political independence would be enough for better standards of living, education healthcare and infrastructure. Economic freedoms would require a very different approach from the political aspect. These wars destroyed much of the resources, wealth and human other potential in the Middle East leading to economic stagnation by 2026. Gulf kingdoms with small populations pursued grandiose schemes, with the rest of the Middle East stuck in poverty and lack of industrialization, lack of infrastructure development, sience and technological education, that happened in China and South Korea, and is happening now in India. Iraq and Syria, Lebanon are artificial states by the French and British colonial rulers out of the collapsed Arab part of the Ottoman Empire which with their mix of peoples from different Islamic sects are impossible to manage to this day, and the world (China, US, EU, India, Brazil, other nations) has other priorities of their own than getting sucked into these wars. ...

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Questions and Answers about Islamic State on the BBC website give a short and simple look at Islamic State or ISIS in Syria and Iraq, its origins and how it developed upto the Iraqi government's efforts to retake Mosul in northern Iraq in Dec. 2016.

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Trofimov provides this report on the conflict in Syria and Iraq. Islamic state fighters from other countries are paid $800 per month compared to $400 for local fighters in Syria and Iraq. Fighters in the Free Syrian Army are paid $100 by comparison. Many of the fighters coming from Russia, western countries, and Arab countries see this as part of a visionary effort to create a new Islamic society, an experiment of sorts. In the process dislocating many of the local population and turning them into refugees going to Turkey and Jordan. Many of the 20,000 fighters crossing into the region from the Syrian border are veterans of other conflicts and bring previous experience. The Syrian city of Raqqa is described here by Trofimov as dominated by these fighters with much of the local Syrian population turned into refugees.

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Fighting escalates on the Syria- Turkey border in 2016 as U.S. Special Forces support Syrian rebels with the help of Turkish artillery to take border areas from Islamic State. Turkey was not willing to support Kurdish rebels in the fight against ISIS, leading to the shift to support Syrian rebels with the help of U.S. airstrikes. The result is a new flow of refugees to Turkey. The Turkish government created a zone on the Syrian side of the border for new refugees and called on the U.S. to create a safe zone.

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Iraq created from the Ottoman Empire by the British and French now has Shia militant groups next to Sunni groups in the army and Kurdish militia in a artificial state. This is key to grasping the situation in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Arab regions with Shia population that were parts of the Ottoman Empire for 5 centuries since 1500. When Sunnis dominated in the 1980's Shia were suppressed and responded by joining Iran supported Shia militia across the region. When the Shia militant groups took over with US forces running Iraq, Islamic State was formed from anti-Shia Sunni groups. After Islamic State was suppressed by US a fragile truce remains between Iranian militant groups, Iraqi Sunnis in the army, and Kurdish groups. This time the US cannot be naive about the different interests in nations created artificially to suit their colonial empires by the British and French out of the ruins of the Ottoman Empire after World War I by 1921- it is important for the US to not get involved in the region except to prevent nuclear weapons development and ballistic missile development that would endanger world peace, and get worldwide backing and support, and limit its involvement specific to its carefully made goals that are matched by US strengths. This is a serious matter as US has important goals in its own western hemisphere which require America's full attention including with the Monroe Doctrine in its modern form- the Bush/Obama policies were a disaster for America and bad policy that created the conditions for lack of attention as drug states began to form in the western hemisphere and for illegal immigrants and drugs to enter through its southern land border with Mexico fraying America's social and economic fabric. ...

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The Biden administration has limited the conflict in the Middle East through maintaining relations with the government in Tehran. Now more than ever there is a need for the kind of stable well thought out policy in the long term interests of all nations including the US, Europe, China and India for a peaceful solution to conflicts- this is being pursued by the Biden administration. It is possible because president Biden has focused on economic growth for all and extracted America from the entanglements in the Middle East in Iraq and Afghanistan that have undone previous presidents and US development.

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Sohrab Ahmari of the WSJ talks to Masrour Barzani at a forward base on the Syria-Iraq border in Dec. 2015, at a time when terrorist attacks in France and the U.S. are shifting public opinion in the UK, Germany and the U.S., as well as France.

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One of the favorable factors for Iraq in recent years was the surge in oil production, adding 1 million barrels a day to reach 3.3 million barrels a day. It surged to an average of 3.7 million barrels a day in December 2014 after a deal with the Kurdish region in northern Iraq for an additional 550,000 barrels a day in exchange for Kurds getting a 17% share of federal revenues. This helped Iraq overcome other problems. The drop in oil prices has led to a 40% drop in revenues and the invasion by Islamic State in a loss of some production.The federal budget of $101 billion planned revenues is based on an oil price of $56 and exports of 3.3 million barrels a day, resulting in a $20 billion deficit. It assumes $10 billion in new tax revenues which may be hard to achieve with a lack of strong central government. Experts on Iraq's oil industry say large investments are needed to offset declining oil production from older oil fields in southern Iraq. Oil exports were 2.5 million barrels a day in 2014, and experts say even this will be hard to achieve for 2015. Investments could come from western oil companies, but Iraq and the Kurdistan region are behind in payments to oil companies. Iraq is considering issuing bonds for $10-$15 billion....