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Both China and Taiwan have applied to join the 11 nation Transpacific Trade Agreement. Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Brunei, and Japan. Taiwan says if China is admitted this obviously affects its application.

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As the FT notes in a separate story the problem is that there are too few businessmen with the capacity for execution, managing debt capital effectively, and vision for areas in which there is huge unfulfilled demand in India such as electricity (thermal power plants) and renewables  (solar), logistics (ports modernization). To achieve the 450 GW goal for India in renewables Modi still needs execution and speed, to bring electricity to every home thermal power based on coal. The speed with which this Indian company managed the shift is also rare. Another company accomplished similar goals in connecting India in 4G- Jio.  This FT report looks at how this Indian company was able to navigate the seas and rocky shores as it built up debt of $30 billion. During the pandemic this venture spirit continues with the help of companies such as Total of France which acquired a 20% stake in Adani renewables. With such investments the French have a stake in renewables, defense an other areas of the Indian economy, as India pursues global finance to fund its development, a commitment to India's resilient development renewed by Mr. Macron of France this week and to be renewed by Mr. Biden in his meeting with the Quad 4 countries on September 25. ...

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France's Total oil company takes a 20% stake in renewables division of Adani for $2.5 billion.

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A Japanese group that was unable to realize the potential in renewables with only 5GW expansion in India is selling its energy unit to the Adani Group in India. After building thermal capacity in India this Indian company is now shifting its focus to help achieve prime minister Modi's target of 450 GW for India in renewables. Modi saw the potential for renewables early in his administration for the state of Gujarat.

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Adani Group plans to invest $20 billion in renewable energy over 10 years. Modi has set a goal of 450 gigawatts for India. 

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This WSJ report sees Angela Merkel as leaving an international legacy of cooling relations with America. It says Angela Merkel turned down US president Biden's first call after his election as president because she was going to her cottage in the country that weekend. This report says after 4 terms Merkel is to be seen as dramatically increasing her country's economic dependence on China, pushing through a energy deal with Russia, joining France in challenging US political influence in Europe, rejecting American requests on economic policy and setting Berlin's openness to Chinese technology.  What happened with her youthful fascination with America during the years growing up in East Germany asks the WSJ? It also says of the Bush years of unregulated banking leading to the 2009 US banking crisis- that left her with a distaste for Anglo-Saxon banks and Wall Street lobbying. Of the Obama years it says Merkel found Obama unsteady, verbose, and sometimes meddling, with the spying on Merkel's phone also giving her a sense of disrespect to Germany. The result was that Merkel increasingly was fascinated by the Chinese experiment in development, visiting China 13 times while in office, studying Chinese history, politics and economics.  Merkel over this period met with the Dalai Lama and had questions about one party rule by CCP. Yet she became more and more resigned to Germany as a country of 80 million, not the EU and Europe as one group united in vision with a population of about 500 million, larger than America that could be a force for good in its own right. She said "we can be as hardworking, awesome,  as super as we like, but as a country of 80 million we won't be able to prevail if China ever decided that it no longer wants to have good relations with Germany." She ignored the experience of Sweden and Scandinavian countries in their relations with China. In saying this she ignored the potential of India and its neighbors in south-east Asia that make up about 2 billion people or about twice the population of China. She also seemed unaware of the role Woodrow Wilson, FDR, have played in realizing the democratic vision of the German revolutionaries of 1948 who failed to bring democratic government to Germany. And she had forgotten of the role Harry Truman, the commoner president of the US, who played a major role in establishing German democracy and its dignity during the Berlin Crisis after the blockade of Berlin by the Soviets in 1948. The mediocrity of presidents from Bush to Trump has bothered Merkel. Yet it may very well be that there is nothing mediocre about Mr. Biden and America's vision about its future as it grapples with the social and economic problems of the last three decades, as it has done before in its history and come through. ...

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FR24 looks at the SPD's Olaf Scholz in German elections and the future leadership for the European Union with new leaders expected in Germany and France.

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Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...

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Health issues from alcohol that are coming to the fore during the pandemic with concern about obesity and other health problems. A new look at old habits and the serious effects.

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This report in the NYT looks at the support for the AfD stalled at about 11% nationwide but closer to twice that in East Germany where years of neglect have led to voters shifting to far right parties. The view is presented that there is a core hard right of 10%. Yet it ignores or prefers to overlook what happened in the east which provides the real clues to what happened, so that future policy could be designed to address social goals in a way that never happened in Germany. This is in line with developments in China where president Xi is addressing social goals after years of tech and infrastructure expansion that neglected rural areas and urban poor. It is in line also with the same action taken to address social goals in US president Biden's $3.5 trillion workers and families plan. Social Democrats under Mr. Scholz and a younger generation represented by the Greens have the same challenges facing them to come up with the plans to correct these problems in Germany and with a plan designed for the neglected eastern part of the country. Helmut Kohl pushed for reunification of Germany. With the collapse of the Berlin Wall the momentum was set for this to happen. Yet looking back over that period since 1990, German chancellors and administrations for three decades from both CDU and SPD have failed to invest and create opportunities in eastern part of Germany. It makes German reunification an empty concept looked at from outside. The previous administrations including Kohl and Merkel relied too much on market capitalism to do what it has been shown not capable of doing- tackling social goals and economic crises, much less  political storms such as creation of GDR following Soviet army entering Berlinin 1945. Much commentary on the issues in east Germany show people there left to themselves after mass migration out of the east to the west leaving older people and pensioners in the east, and a sense of being ignored or forgotten. US president Biden said today in ther UN General Assembly- "Our shared grief is a poignant reminder that our collective future will hinge on our ability to recognize our common humanity and to act together." And he went on to say the next ten years to 2030 "will quite literally determine our futures."  The Social Democrats under Scholz and the Greens under Baerbock and Habeck have to come up with plans and programs that will increase ease of living and opportunities for a thriving eastern part of Germany, after the failures of market capitalism in its unregulated form during the Merkel years and predecessor administrations. ...

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A key driver of the economic recovery is how India tackles a legacy of bad loans that have piled up in the banking system. Here Nirmala Sitharaman talks to Hindustan Times about the government's plan to remove 2 lakh crore rupees of bad loans from the books of banks, and a new framework that makes more people eligible for bank loans. Clearing bad loans from the banking system will increase lending to small, large business and expand the economy and employment. The government announced that it will provide 30,600 crore in guarantees to the National Asset Construction Company Limited to buy 2 lakh crore of bad loans from banks. This is in a 15-85% split with NACCL offering cash for 15% of the assets and issuing security receipts for the rest which banks can sell in the market.  Sitharaman says the bad laons have value particularly the way this is structured. India Debt Resolution Company is a company that will help make this happen with panels of experts for each of the debt categories. The specialized application of expertise will make sure that the assets are valued in a way that the market will be interested. IDRCL is 49% owned by the banks and the banks through the Indian Banking Association will have to take the initiative. NARCL will pay a fee to the government the longer an asset is not properly resolved. Sitharaman also says in this interview that climate change and India' response will not have an impact on the economy. She says- "Coal dependence will stay to some extent. But we are committed to closing down legacy thermal units that are inefficient, coal guzzlers with low productivity levels. Our economy has different regions at different levels of development. Completely removing thermal is impossible. PM Modi has invested and is committed to renewable energy." She said India had done its work to achieve COP21 with its own funds. None of the funds by developed nations of $100 billion has materialized.     ...

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French president Macron assures PM Modi of "France's commitment to building India's strategic autonomy, including its technology and industry base, as part of a close relationship based on mutual respect and trust." This follows the French fallout with Australia following the cancellation of a $26 billion submarine deal that was shifted to the US for the purpose of advanced nuclear technologies.

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A message for Mr. Modi, Nirmala Sitharaman and all who see Indian exports as a key driver in the economic recovery. Indian logistics costs are at 14-16% compared to 8-9% in nations of Europe and the US. This Economic Times report shows 20 Government of India ministries and agencies are involved in logistics for exports. A recent shipment of mahua flowers from Chhatisgarh to Le Havre port in France was held up for 2 weeks at Mumbai's Nava Shheva port, as cited here in the The Economic Times. Logistics help from Maersk helped China build its industrial capabilities. The port capabilities in logistics grew year after year from small beginnings in the 1990 period. Mr. Modi is starting this process in India as it is a key driver for foreign investment in the country. As China's logistics capabilities grew companies had the confidence that products manufactured in the country could be delivered to US and Europe efficiently and at low cost. This process takes a decade and the time to start building this capability is now with plans, stretch goals, investment and timely delivery. Maersk, a Danish company, has a big role to play in this effort in India. Government incentives could play a role, as well as negotiations with Maersk and with the assistance of the government of Denmark for technological collaboration at Indian ports. ...

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Even with the best US effort heroin production increased to 9000 tons in Afghanistan says this report in The Economic Times. Indian coast guard and Gujarat anti-terrorist squad size large amounts of heroin at Mundra port and along the Porbandar coast.  Afghanistan has a 2000 kilometer border with Iran and another 2000 kilometer border with Pakistan. There is now increased risk of this activity along India and Sri Lanka's coastlines and borders, says the Economic Times. Much of the colonial period was marked by British traders use of opium from Bengal and other parts of India in illegal activities in China through Chinese ports for sale of opium -leading to the Opium wars in 1850 with China's feudal monarchy and eventually to China turning to the CCP. This was conducted under the British East India Company and condoned under the British Empire- making it one of the worst activities of colonial powers in history. Some of the same activities are being conducted and condoned by countries in the region. A multinational allied task force Combined Force 150 keeps track of the oceans in the North Arabian Sea and in the Horn of Africa. More naval forces are needed from India, the US, UK, Australia, Japan and other countries to keep the oceans safe and clear, and protect people in the region. ...

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Prime minister Modi's visit to the US comes at a time when US president Biden is eager to show the US is fully engaged in the Indo-Pacific region with its allies in the Quad 4 countries- Australia, Japan and India. The recently announced Aukus defense agreement brought together 2 members of the Quad 4 the US and Australia, plus the UK. Aukus is designed to strengthen US presence as a naval power in the Indo-Pacific region in the Indian and Pacific oceans around India, Southeast Asia, China, and across the Pacific. After a futile engagement in Afghanistan the US is reorganizing its presence where it is strongest- in the oceans. In a way that Britain once did in the eighteenth and nineteenth century, the US is dominant in the high seas. US naval power far exceeds that of all navies in the world combined. This is meant to reassure India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia and Japan, which together have close to twice the population of China, that the US has not diminished its presence in any way from that it had in the 1950's following the Second World War. With this new framework India enters discussions that will focus on health to deal with the pandemic and its after effects, with security and rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region, with trade, technology, new supply chain manufacturing structure in which India plays a key role. With this new focus and clearing past engagements made by other US  presidents, including some mistaken policies, the US emerges as a new force in the Indian ocean, China seas and Pacific ocean region.  On September 23 Modi meets Tim Cook for what could be new supply chain arrangements that Apple could be preparing as it and other US corporations build new supply chain structures to rebuild US manufacturing technologies capabilities that were lost to China over the period 2000-2020. During that period manufacturing technology knowhow was shifted out of the US in a mistaken policy that assumed design and invention were sufficient for the US to keep. The first step in this direction was a change of CEO's at Intel Corp with US president Biden pushing for new US technology reclaiming policy. Following that the new CEO at Intel Corp, Patrick Gelsinger, completely reassessed Intel's mistaken policies of ceding its entire semiconductor manufacturing technologies capabilities to Taiwan and China. Intel made a U turn and is now investing all or most of $50 billion in the US instead of in China or Taiwan.  On September 24 Modi meets Mr Biden to discuss trade, investment, defense, and security. On the same day the leaders of Japan, Australia, Mr. Suga and Mr. Morrison join Modi and Biden for the Quad 4 talks. Indian infrastructure capabilities and Indian economic growth would be key goals to strengthen India along its land borders along Tibet occupied region and Himalayas as part of the overall effort to build a new US and allied presence in Asia.  On September 21 Modi attends a Covid Summit that will look at the way forward in the aftermath of the pandemic and ways to vaccinate the remaining unvaccinated population in the world, as well as vaccination passports.  ...

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In Biden's address at the UN General Assembly he talks about climate change and Covid-19, and a foreign policy that brings together US and its allies in Europe and Asia. He said "the next decade will quite literally determine our futures."  He encouraged "competition" but he stressed he was "not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocks." Biden also said the US would spend $10 billion to end hunger and invest in food systems around the world.

Biden also increased US commitment for developing countries to reduce emissions to total $11 billion by 2024- in a recent interview Indian finance minister Sitharaman says India has done its work for COP21 emissions entirely without US or other funds.

In a few days Biden will hold a Covid summit where he will call for vaccinating 70% of the world's population. 

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Zoom's deal to buy an American services software company Five9 for $15 billion is under US government review because of China ties. 

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China's economy has run out of road says Streetwise in the WSJ. Evergrande is the first of many implosions. This view is that Evergrande is China's economy in miniature, built entirely on borrowed money and credit. Real estate developers and other sectors run in the style of Evergrande with borrowed money will run out of credit.