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Western nations including Europe, Canada, Japan and South Korea, are members of the International Enerrgy Agency, which has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve. The IEA will release oil from its reserves to support president Biden's plan to release 180 million barrels over the next 6 months. OPEC that includes Russia plans to increase production by only about 432,000 barrels a day.  During the Trump administration Saudi Arabia and Russia were at odds on production levels leading to Russia increasing production to higher levels than OPEC would allow. This led to a temporary collapse of oil prices to levels as low as $30. To help the US oil fracking industry which could not operate at these low prices president Trump brought the two sides together into what is now OPEC+. The Biden administration has ties with both Iran and Saudis, and aims to revive the Iran nuclear deal, withdrew support for Saudi air strikes on Yemeni Iran backed Huthi rebels. In this geopolitical situation Saudis are reluctant to respond to US calls to increase production as they have done in the past. With climate change and the COP26 agenda in Glasgow there is a plan to shift away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil that are supplied by OPEC and Australia. This means that a shift away from Russian or Saudi oil is also a shift towards renewable energy such as wind and solar which is needed to combat climate change. The Ukraine war and efforts to wean Europe away from Russia sourced energy will accelerate the changes needed to tackle climate change, even though the US fracking industry will step in to increase production at oil prices at $100+ in 2022. After 2023-2024 the push for conservation and renewable energy from today's crisis and Glasgow COP26 commitments, sharp slowdown in China and renewable focused India is likely to bring down oil prices to reasonable levels for a transition period to renewable energy. ...

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How wind and renewable energy power works and the efforts to learn how to store it. Winds erratic supply and ways to make it work.

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A problem the renewable energy industry faces is how to store energy so that it can meet demand when it is cloudy or calm, conditions when solar panels and wind energy generators are not working. A company in Switzerland is working on a novel solution. It uses cranes to lift 35 ton bricks that are stacked to form a 400 foot tower. When energy is needed the kinetic energy from bricks coming down powers generators. 

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Ormat, a geothermal energy company, faces resistance to a new geothermal plant in Nevada.  130 residents in the desert town of Gerlach fear it will affect spring water in the ground. Ormat has 15 plants in Nevada that produce 433 megawatts or electricity for 325,000 homes. NYT shows this as an example of how conservationists who favor green energy find themselves pitted against energy companies doing renewable energy for profit. The Burning Man festival held in the desert has a large carbon footprint every year. 

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Wind and solar finally overtake coal in power generation for the European Union. 30% of EU electricity is now generated by wind and solar. Power generation from coal and gas dropped by 17% in first 6 months of 2024, resulting in one third drop in sector emissions, according to climate think tank Ember. In 13 member states power generation from solar and wind was higher than coal and gas with Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and Hungary achieving this for the first time. This makes US commitment to climate change all the more critical for 2024-2028. EU is a big contributor to emissions for climate change. It is also setting aggressive goals. This progress brings into view zero power from coal and gas.  Andrea Hahmann , scientist at Denmark technical University, author of one chapter in the IPCC report on energy systems says “The ‘crossing of the lines’ demonstrates that the EU’s electricity transition is possible, and we should not give in to pessimism. The renewable energy targets that must be met are substantial but achievable with the proper policy measures.” ...

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The needs of AI where the energy to power a city the size of Manhattan is needed leaves America short of meeting such supply with renewable solar, wind and natural gas. Nuclear had become dormant as the cost of natural gas and solar produced energy declined. With increasing need for clean energy the Biden administration considered reviving nuclear energy and included funds for this in its legislation.  In the last year Constellation which owns the Three Mile Plant in decommissioning status changed its plans under CEO Dominguez after attending AI meetings realizing that this was an opportunity. Dominguez had research done to match energy projects in the US with the demand including AI data centers to be convinced it made sense to invest, and meetings with Governor Shapiro. It is moving forward with $1.6 billion investment after a deal with Microsoft for energy from Three Mile Nuclear plant, delivery in 2028, at $115 per megawatt hour. It costs $142 per megawatt hour for new nuclear energy construction.  State and federal regulatory approvals are needed, and the risk of underestimating the cost of restoring nuclear at decommissioned plants are high. ...

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The Russian economy will suffer a loss of about 7% of GDP in 2022. After 2023 over the next five year period Russia will feel the effects of a drop in energy demand as it tries to find markets to replace European demand. The shift to renewables will accelerate in future years and will affect the demand for Russian fossil fuel supplies.

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US and Iran accept Pakistan's mediation of the war with a 2 week ceasefire and opening of Straits of Hormuz- April 7 2026. The mediation by prime minister Sharif of Pakistan gave both sides in the war a way to back down. Both sides agreed to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. As a partner of Pakistan, China may also have a role in setting up a settlement as China and Japan have the most to lose from the Straits of Hormuz being closed, oil prices rocketing up to $115 and higher, and even a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz Straits. Both China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits. Oil prices drop to the $100 level from $115 after the announcement of talks in Islamabad. This is not a long term settlement. After the two weeks US president meets president Xi of China in Beijing shortly afterwards on May 14-15. It is likely that preparations for that trip will involve China and Pakistan working together to get the US and Iran to agree to an extension of the ceasefire. One outcome of this war is as Le Monde has noted- the unreliability of Hormuz supplies and shift to imports from US and Venezuela and other parts of the world for fossil fuels. And with this a renewed effort to reduce the fossil fuels needed by accelerating renewable energy supplies in Europe, India and China. More attention will also be focused on reducing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by all major powers. Removing US involvement in NATO may also turn out to be positive in some ways to bring Russia and US as nuclear powers to better working relationships, and reduce the nuclear arms race and weapons race. For Europe it means meeting needs of Ukraine and improving military capabilities. The overall result may be positive for all countries. The Middle East region will be seen as one in which no powers should get involved in and the Middle East will also find it has squandered its valuable oil dividend in five decades of wars and mismanagement and fall behind the rest of Asia and Europe, the US in economic progress and development. ...

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A wind farm out at sea to start in 3 years, small renovation projects across France and Germany, a couple of billion dollars from the French government for home renovations- this kind of approach is considered completely unrealistic say EU legislators. One Danish legislator asks what is more unrealistic? Setting serious targets for conversion to renewable energy or depending on Putin's gas and oil?  These EU legislators are calling for aggressive action now. The European Commission set a 9% goal for energy savings by 2030, this has now been moved up to 13%. EU legislators are calling for 23% in savings by 2030. And even this may not be enough to meet the goals for climate change to prevent the disaster from climate change with fires and floods and heat waves that hurt agriculture and food supplies. A savings target of 19% is about the gas that runs 40% of the cars and trucks on American roads in 2021 or 214 million metric tons of oil. The French government has set aside 3 billion euros for comprehensive renovations of homes to save energy with a target of 300,000 homes in 2022. This is completely inadequate as it will cost 23 billion euros say experts on the Paris city council. Renovations are only running at 60,000 a year. A big part of the conversion in Europe is converting from gas heating to electric heating. France is boosting subsidies for new electric heat pump installations.   ...

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Patti Pope, CEO of Consumers Energy, a Michigan power company serving 7 million consumers, is moving to greener sources for energy. Consumers Energy retired 7 coal fired power plants and is shifting to solar farms, wind farms for energy, smart thermostats and meters, new infrastructure, taking advantage of the lower costs of renewable energy.

It plans to invest $25 billion over the next 10 years, including to add 6 gigawatts of solar power requiring 59 square miles of solar panels in its service area. Included are plans to help customers to produce and manage their own power as more users install solar panels in homes.

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Extreme drought affected Minnesota cattle farmers leading to elimination of many cattle herds.               Wildfire smoke from Canada settled down over the cities of St Paul and Minneapolis for days.                 Lack of enough snow and ice in winter led to losses in ice fishing and cross country skiing making winters unnatural in Great Lakes Region that also includes Wisconsin and Michigan. Walz acted, and his plain spoken communication style made a difference clearing misperceptions. Pew Research shows 67% of Americans favor clean energy but misperceptions abound.          Minnesota during his two terms now produces 50% of its energy from wind, solar and nuclear. Minnesota is now likely to be ahead of California in getting to 100% wind solar and nuclear for all its energy. Walz set the date 2040 into law for this to happen with 40 climate initiatives. A bill signed into law speeds up the permits for renewable energy projects. Walz’s communication style shows that when people understand the benefits and specifics you get things done. “The surest way to get people to buy in is to create a job that pays well in their community. All of us are going to have to be better about our smart politics, about bringing people in.”        ...

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Approval process by government is now much stricter and the approval process takes longer for new wind turbines. A leading renewable energy developer BayWa re. estimates 45% of the old turbines installed 20 years ago would not be approved under today's stricter standards. As these become unprofitable a lot of new turbines have to replace older ones. After years of gains suddenly in 3 years the wind power capacity installed each year is dropping sharply, and is in deep trouble. Especially because wind energy plays a big role in Germany, accounting for 25% of total electricity production in 2019, solar only has 10%. For all of Germany only 290 MW was installed in first half of 2019, 80% drop from same period 2018.  In 2018 2800 MW of wind turbines were installed, and that was down from 5000MW in 2017. Problems in addition to stricter approval standards is the resistance from the public which fears wind turbines close to residential areas could affect health of residents. In Bavaria 10H ban is imposed on new installations, requiring 10 times the height of the wind turbine as minimum distance from homes. Other issues are wildlife and the impact on  birds in the area. 300 turbines for 1200 MW are blocked for this reason. Other reasons are military concerns, FM radio beacons. It used to take 10 months for approval. Now the process is so long that the technology itself has changed by that time. Commercial risks are growing for operators in this environment as new costly regulations come into place. A regulation in Brandenburg requires payment of 10,000 euros to neighboring municipalities per wind turbine. Subsidy eligibility is also being cut. ...

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These are key provisions in the biggest climate change bill in history- Tax credits that last for over a decade for zero carbon plants- these tax credits go to companies that build new sources of emissions free electricity, for wind turbines, solar panels, battery storage, geo thermal plants. Tax credits also for new technologies that capture and bury carbon dioxide from natural gas plants and industrial facilities before it escapes into the atmosphere and heats the planet. This technology is rarely used because of high costs. Incentives for electric vehicles- It extends a tax credit of $7500 for new electric vehicles. It adds a $4000 tax credit for used electric vehicles. Tax credit goes only to people earning $150,000 a year (300,000 for joint filers) for new EV's and $75,000 (150,000 for joint filers) for used EV's. Help for people to lower energy costs - $9 billion in rebates for Americans installing energy efficient electrical appliances. And a decade of tax credits for Americans installing rooftop solar, heat pumps, water heaters and electric HVAC, or electric heating, air conditioning and ventilation technologies. Investments in Domestic Manufacturing- $60 billion for investments in clean energy manufacturing in the US. This includes $30 billion for production tax credits for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and critical minerals processing. $10 billion in investment tax credits to build manufacturing facilities for electric cars and renewable energy technologies. This action is to halt the shifting of clean energy manufacturing overseas to China. $27 billion towards a green bank that would finance clean energy projects in disadvantaged communities. Cracking down on Methane- the bill places a fine on methane gas emissions from oil and gas wells and pipelines and other infrastructure. Fees of $900 per metric ton in 2024 and $1500 a metric ton in 2026 when it exceeds federally set limits.    ...

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Turning Open AI into for profit after starting as a supposedly altruistic tendency venture has opened new fault lines in the company with many people leaving. The AI is now becoming a kind of gold rush with companies putting huge price tags on talent and committing some of the nation's limited capital resources into directions that lead to the massive waste that led to economic crises in the 1930's. It is reported that it will put major stress on the grid and on electricity resources and that Tech companies do not want to pay for this. The government needs to act boldly with its own "bold persistent experimentation" to find solutions where the Nation keeps its edge in many emerging technologies yet does not waste resources, or divert resources from other purposes that are vital to the better lives that all Americans aspire to. These needs are in housing (3 million new homes), in small business uplift, in renewable energy and climate change action, in education to lift NAEP scores, in early childhood education, and in healthcare. ...

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Labour will introduce 40 bills in parliament to make changes in renewable energy, the environment, transport railways, and for cost of living action. Great Britain Railways and Great Britain Energy are two public companies to be set up to reach goals in public transport modernization and in getting a five fold increase in solar needed to meet 68% cut in emissions by 2030 (Paris Accords commitment). Great Britain Energy will be capitalized with 8.3 billon pounds. (Labour scaled down its 28 billion pounds Green Energy Plan because of Tory mismanagement of finances but will continue to invest in vital projects). The answer is to take a creative approach. More money will be released through the Crown estate bill that will have the crown estate use its auctions of offshore land for wind energy and make investments in green energy. National Wealth Fund will invest in low carbon projects.  Fro water Labour will hold the water bosses to account and put companies such as Thames Water in special measures. Renationalisation was considered but was considered costly at this time, other action is being taken.  Nine bills are part of the 40– the planning and infrastructure bill; the better buses bill; the three rail bills, which are the passenger railway services (public ownership) bill, rail reform bill and high speed rail (Crewe to Manchester) bill; the Great British Energy bill and crown estate bill; the sustainable aviation fuels bill; and the water (special measures bill) – that all focus on protecting the environment. ...

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China's push in renewable energy with large 10,000 MW wind farms and solar energy panel manufacturing. China has built the world's larges solar panel manufacturing industry by exporting 95% of the product to Europe and the USA. WHen CHina built its first solar power plant in 2009 it required 80% of the parts to come from domestic manufacturers. And when the Chinese government took bids for 25 large contracts to build wind turbines, all contracts were won by domestic companies. One energy NGO expert in CHina says that this is because Chinese government investment in wind and solar energy even though it is much costlier than coal, cahn happen only if it helps build up the domestic industry in renewable energy.

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One negative effect of the trade war with the U.S. is an increased emphasis on energy security and increased use of coal in China. After China committed to goals for climate change coal use declined in 2014, after reaching a high in 2013. The attack on Saudi oil facilities showed risk in its reliance on Saudi oil. China's import dependency for oil reached an all time high of 72% in 2018, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review. Gradually the commitment to climate change and lower use of coal has changed since 2016 with the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Initially after the U.S. withdrawal under president Trump China made bold commitment to lead the fight against climate change but has since wavered. In an October 2019 speech Premier Li Kequiang called for the development of the coal industry to ensure energy security.  As China's economy slowed in 2019 in the face of U.S. tariffs and a trade war with the U.S. efforts are being made to increase infrastructure investment which has driven coal use higher. China's steel output reached a record of 750 million metric tons in 2019. The amount of coal fired capacity under construction in China now exceeds the rest of the world combined, much of it from plants permitted before 2017, according to Global Energy Monitor. China is also expected to become the world's largest importer of natural gas by 2020. Even the Russian gas fields from Siberia supply only a fifth of China's energy demands in 2020.  China has made large strides in renewable energy helping it meet its Paris Agreement targets. Renewable energy is about 10% of China's energy mix, but its use showed growth of 29% in 2018, making up half of the world's growth. China's use of coal in the energy mix has dropped to 58% in 2018 from 72% in 2008, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review, as a result of renewable energy investments. At the Madrid Climate Conference China renewed its commitment to the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Now it is a balancing act keeping in mind energy security and economic growth along with the need for clear skies and better air quality. ...

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Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Ali Sabry is interviewed by The Hindu. Ali Sabry says he is "very, very confident" about the Adani Group's investments in Sri Lanka's renewable energy potential, and any drop in Adani stock value is not affecting the projects. Sabry says the Adani Group is already investing in its projects, which include the $700 million Colombo West Container Port Project. He met with India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar in New Delhi at the Raisina Dialogue Conference. He was asked about his role as Foreign Minister after working as Finance Minister.  "It is still a mix of both, as I still have to carry out some of the responsibilities in debt restructuring and economic diplomacy, because the President is the finance minister, and naturally he cannot travel as often as we would like." "We are not out of the woods but stabilized right now, and what we are looking at next is recovery, for which we need investment. So right now, what we are interested in with India is how to collaborate and how to integrate with the Indian economy, particularly with South India, in terms of investment, people to people connection, more tourists coming in. So that's the kind of thing it is it's a win win situation for all." ...

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This report in Der Spiegel shows how the efforts to act on climate change are stalled in Germany with the failure to agree on how coal fired plants will be closed in the ongoing three party negotiations. The FDP party is pro-business and no agreement is reached with the Greens and the CDU on how to move ahead with the 65% of German power plants that do not rely on renewable energy such as solar and wind. Modern gas facilities are unprofitable making this a major challenge for Germany to cut power emissions under the Paris Climate Change Agreement and German targets of the Merkel government. Spiegel points out that energy companies are not keen on keeping the old coal power plants which are now outdated and an agreement is needed.

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Once a pioneer in X ray machines and jet engines General Electric fell into disrepute under Jack Welch when the company hid low earnings in industrial businesses by setting up its financial business. The 2009 financial crisis hit GE hard. Years of deleveraging followed after exit of the financial business. In 2018 it exited the Dow Jones Industrial Averages. Larry Culp of Danaher joined GE as new CEO of GE in 2018. He sold the healthcare business to Danaher for $21 billion. After about $100 billion in deleveraging the remaining company was split into two companies GE Aerospace led by Culp and GE Energy called GE Vernova a purpose built company led by Scott Strazik headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. GE Vernova is focused on wind turbines and renewable energy, its purpose to accelerate the energy transition and advance sustainability. The new GE is itself a return to the old days when GE was a pioneer and powered America's industrial base, not the company of deindustrialization of Jack Welch of the 1980's Reagan and post Reagan period when investing in financial and speculative business made GE to lose its purpose and go astray. For Culp and others the realization of the failure of policies that deindustrialized America and shifted factories to China after Thatcher and Reagan was a lesson learned. It is now the story of an America on the move under president Biden. ...

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The world today is in a much better position to complete the transition to zero dependence on the volatile Middle East for oil. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US   2. China  3. India  4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (India through waivers for Russian sources). European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources. US is self sufficient in oil and gas and exports oil to the UK, India, Germany and the European Union. Canada is self sufficient. Germany gets only 6% of its oil from the Middle East, the UK 12%, Spain 13% and Italy 14%. The Iran war is likely to shift more of the needs of UK, Spain and Italy to other more stable sources including oil from the US and Venezuela managed by the US, and other sources. This means that US policymakers can act in the best interests of all the nations of the world for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles. Germany is moving rapidly to renewable energy and this could bring its dependence on the Middle East to zero. India will meet its needs from Russia for the time being till it also shifts to oil from US+ Venezuela. India get 55% of its oil from the Middle East or about 2.7 million b/d. Russia was an important source of oil for India till the US trade agreement called for it to shift- a 30 day waiver and extension means India can get this oil from Russia without sanctions for the duration of the war. Reducing European demand and Indian demand frees up oil for Japan and South Korea on the world market the other 2 countries dependent on Middle East oil- Japan importing 95% of its oil consumption with imports of 2.5 million b/d and South Korea importing about 2 million b/d or 70% of its consumption. This means Japan and South Korea need a new strategy as they are overexposed to one source just as Germany was and learned a difficult lesson to diversify its sources. Japan has learned to reduce consumption for the same level of GDP and some of this can be through conservation, also tried in Germany in the last 4 years. During the 4 years. of Ukraine war Germany had to find ways to diversify sources Japan and South Korea will need rapidly to do the same in the Iran War. This means that only Japan and South Korea because of their lack of policy direction and vigilance have allowed this overdependence on the Gulf region,  (even as Germany diversified its sources, DJT and Israel were firm on nuclear weapons policy) they failed to see signs that they should diversify. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US 2. China 3. India 4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (Indi through waivers for Russian sources), European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources.    ...

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Biden's ultimate faith in the fairness of the American cause and the American people gets him two big wins with the $280 billion semiconductor bill, and the $369 billion climate change action bill. Biden says about this when many had given up hope- "The work of government can be slow and frustrating, and sometimes even infuriating. Then the hard work of hours, days and months from people who refuse to give up pays off. History is made. Lives are changed." With Europe at war and struggling to get through the winter with gas rationing it was up to America to lead the way as the world faces ever increasing floods, fires and heat waves that affect food supply and environment. And Schumer? The New York Democrat asked about the effort quoted his father who passed away last year. "As my late father said: you need to persist. God will reward you." For months Mr. Manchin a critical vote in the US Senate had opposed the Democrats proposed bills. Then Senators Mark Warner of Virginia, Chris Coons of Delaware, John Hickenlooper of Colorado took a different approach. They did not openly criticize Mr. Manchin, and appealed to his sense of history, his zeal for playing a leading role in a high stakes legislative deal. Schumer and Biden were willing to make some concessions for fossil energy now that with the war in Ukraine the US needed to export LNG to Europe to replace Russian supplies. China and India were still going to be using fossil fuels after COP26 and after the pandemic induced lower growth. The US had to find a different approach some fossil fuel concessions would make it possible to use it as abridge towards the larger goal of getting ahead on renewable energy in a big way. This opened the way for a deal that centrists could support.  ...

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Germany's largest utility plans to spin off its conventional power generation, exploration and production units to focus on renewable energy. The fossil fuel units are restricted by German regulation as Germany moves to increase use of alternative solar and wind energy. The German government sees this as a positive step for energy transformation. German government support for green energy, including large subsidies, is resulting in a power surplus and lower prices for wholesale power. This makes traditional power plants unprofitable. In addition the ruble is negatively affecting Russian operations, Brazilian operations are unprofitable- these assets will be part of the fossil fuels unit, a kind of "bad bank" of assets, say analysts. E.ON shares went up by 4.3% on the DAX exchange, Dec. 1, 2014, showing positive investor perceptions of the move.

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Is a Win-Win possible for the US/Israel and Iran possible with the US/Israel strikes and operations started March 1, 2026. Not just for the American and Israeli people, but for the people of the Arab countries and for the people of Iran, and for the people of Russia. Greg Ip in the WSJ, Marc Thiessen in the NYT, and Bret Stephens of the NYT have looked at this in this way and offer an alternative view of what might happen, even though the tendency of the WSJ and the Washington Post is to be skeptical and the NYT with an opposition to all things DJT offering pessimistic version. First, all the anticolonial writings that were read by Khamanei in Moshaad are no longer the case as the US is no longer acting to secure some benefit to itself as the British and French colonial powers did for themselves or their oil companies in pre1960's Iran. Second the US truly wants to learn the lessons of 30 years of troubles in the region at every level of the DJT administration which is to extend a true olive branch to the subdued foe as it did to Germany and Japan under generals Eisenhower and McArthur. Third moderates in Iran could emerge as in Germany ( Adenauer) and in Japan Shigeru Yoshida who worked to adopt the 1947 Japanese Constitution under Gen. Douglas MacArthur. Behind the student protests and now national protests there is a realization in Iran that living perpetually under sanctions is not the way to live, that it can increase oil production, get investment in its industry, and raise standards of living, by doing something different. That nuclear weapons development, supporting movements overseas, perpetual conflicts with Arab states, these things have been tried and are not working. That this is the last chance to build a prosperous Iran before fossil fuels are replaced by renewable energy over 10-15 years and which will make it that much harder to modernize and develop Iran for the benefit of Iran's future 110 million people. The gap with India will only widen as India catches up with China, the way China caught up with Japan. It is better to accept that these anticolonial writings that emerged from decolonizing Arab North Africa applied to the British and the French, and that the world is a different place today as the Indians and the Chinese have realized modernizing ancient societies with ancient religions is possible with the help of the Americans and the Europeans, working with the Americans and the Europeans. Theodore Roosevelt says in his Autobiography that one should be careful to judge people as the best have some negative aspects and the worst have some positive aspects, an experience he described in his dealings with progressives and those who opposed changes. Adenauer and Yoshida had contacts and dealings with earlier governments defeated in the war, but wanted to search for an entirely different path for rebuilding their countries having learned from experience. A thoughtful moderate Iranian outcome is possible as happened in Germany and Japan and which is beginning to develop in Venezuela.   ...