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The nuclear arms race between Russia, China and the U.S. accelerates in 2016, as the arms control effort suffers a setback with poor relations between the U.S. and Russia, and China's bid to build up its nuclear weapons. This makes the world a more dangerous place, and puts at risk the gains made in the early years of the Obama administration with the SALT arms control negotiations and treaties in 2010-2011.

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Karl Rove says he was in his 20's working in the Reagan election campaign in Texas which was declared a close contest by the New York Times polls. Gallup in October showed Carter ahead Oct 13 by 4 points, and by Oct 27 by 8 points. He expresses skepticism about current polls because of 91 national polls in the last 30 days (including Gallup and Rasmussen) Obama was at or above what he calls the critical or magic number of 50% in only 20 polls.

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With the sale of its stake in TNK-BP to Rosneft BP will have 19.75% of Rosneft. It will lose TNK-BP's oil production of 986 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and it will gain 900 million barels from its share of Rosneft output. BP's oil reserves will increase by 12.5% after the deal. TNK-BP has paid annual dividend of an average of $2.2 billion since 2004, BP payout from Rosneft is estimated at $500 million. BP's share of the new Rosneft after the deal would be $3.6 billion in expected earnings for 2013 compared to $4.1 billion from the 50% share of TNK-BP. Some of this dilution may be restored by share buybacks by BP.

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Rockwell Collins CEO, Clay Jones, talks to the Journal's David Kesmodel, about Rockwell's strategy as the U.S. Defense Department faces large cutbacks. Rockwell supplies the cockpit electronics on military aircraft. With the growth in sales of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner and Airbus's jumbo jet, Jones is shifting resources, capital investments and engineers to the commercial aircraft business. He tells Kesmodel that his No.1 problem is to position Rockwell in the international area to benefit from sales to India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Turkey, South Korea, Australia, countries which he says will have to build their own aircraft capabilities as the U.S. pulls back from overseas bases. He sees international sales going up from 33% to 40%. Only small acquisitions are planned, of between $50-100 million, as Rockwell prefers organic growth.

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Voter awareness and discomfort about the $1.6 trillion deficit this year, does not translate into wanting to see spending cuts in Medicare, Social Security and popular programs. It is the view of public opinion that is determining political leaders inaction on these issues, which are at the heart of controlling spending and the deficits. It is no surprise then that the Obama budget showed no action on these issues. Both parties are careful not to talk about cuts to popular programs without broad public support. The Pew Research Center survey shows 12% of Americans want to cut spending on Medicare or on Social Security, only 6% want to reduce spending on veterans benefits. Politicians can do the math from these numbers. They may be sending loud signals to Democrats and Republican politicians that voters will punish those who cut these popular programs. Polling done by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News produced similiar numbers.

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How a "stand-off" no-fly zone can be implemented for Libya by ships and aircraft operating off the coast of Libya with precision guided missiles. This would deny the regime in Tripoli the use of the airspace. This is possible because most of Libya's cities are on the coast. No aircraft need to fly over Libya and an attack on the air defenses of the Tripoli regime would not be needed. Combined with shoulder fired surface to air missiles in the hands of rebel forces this would be an effective deterrent.

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Singapore's tight politcal control which hinders the kind of free expression which is considered normal in advanced economies is raising questions about Singapore's future and the kind of society it sees itself as becoming. Different opinions are coming from within the ruling PAP party and from the public. Issues are immigration, property prices, growing inequality, similiar to those facing native Hong Kong people. Non residents and permanent residents made up 39% of Singapore's population of 5.5 million in 2014. A law professor at Singapore Management University reflects the trend of public opinion saying it is not a question of whether but when Singapore evolves into a two or multi-party system of government.

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Bret Stephens talks with Shiite Imam Mohsen Quadivar, who was a student of Hossein-Ali Montazeri, and a seminarian at Qom, Iran. He now teaches at Duke. Kadivar is the author of a three part work of political philosophy titled "The Theories of the State in Shiite Jurisprudence," which questions Khomeini's idea of vilayat e-Faqih, or principle for a supreme leader with near dictatorial powers. Nothing in this principle he says is intuitively obvious or necessary for religion. It is he says not a part of Shiite general principles, and by near consensus of the Shiite Ulama, a minor jurisprudential hypothesis. He says there are two interpretations of Islam: the aggressive Islam of Ahamadinejad or the mercy Islam of Moussavi. Kadivar points out that 2 of Iran's 4 major seminaries have refused to endorse Ahmadinejad's victory. There is here a search and a struggle for the true soul of Islam that goes beyond Iran, to Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The U.S., India, Pakistan and the Middle Eastern nations are having to walk carefully through a period where a search and a struggle for this true soul is taking place. Alahu akbar now takes on a different meaning....