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Derek Scissors writes that the effects of stimulus weakens over time, even in economies like China's that are only partly market based. And he says China has used stimulus for years. He says that in 2001, fixed investment was at 38% of GDP, investment growth 12% and revised GDP growth 8%. In the first 3 quarters of 2010, GDP growth was 10.6%, but this required investment growth of 24% and that was with fixed investment now equal to 72% of GDP. These figures suggest the difficulty of getting growth at higher and higher levels of investment. His view is that more likely than a crisis is a stalling economy.
Derek Scissors writes that the effects of stimulus weakens over time, even in economies like China's that are only partly market based. And he says China has used stimulus for years. He says that in 2001, fixed investment was at 38% of GDP, investment growth 12% and revised GDP growth 8%. In the first 3 quarters of 2010, GDP growth was 10.6%, but this required investment growth of 24% and that was with fixed investment now equal to 72% of GDP. These figures suggest the difficulty of getting growth at higher and higher levels of investment. His view is that more likely than a crisis is a stalling economy.
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Carlin and Lewis call for a reconsideration of US policy towards North Korea. They have visited North Korea several times, and say that Americans are as isolated from the North Koreans as the North Koreans are from the rest of the world. America once saw China and Vietnam as countries with which America found it impossible to engage, today it is N. Korea, say Carlin and Lewis. They also point out that with China's support on a long term basis, US hopes that North Korea will simply collapse is a weak reed to base US policy on.
Carlin and Lewis call for a reconsideration of US policy towards North Korea. They have visited North Korea several times, and say that Americans are as isolated from the North Koreans as the North Koreans are from the rest of the world. America once saw China and Vietnam as countries with which America found it impossible to engage, today it is N. Korea, say Carlin and Lewis. They also point out that with China's support on a long term basis, US hopes that North Korea will simply collapse is a weak reed to base US policy on.
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