LyrArc Article Gist
GM and Ford US International Trade Commission report in 2024 sees only about a 5% increase in prices for a 25% tariff in car imports into the US from EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico and China. With US production GM at 60% Ford at 80%, both companies are better positioned to shift production to the US following 25% tariff on cars imported into the US. GM also has the financial strength to invest in new auto plants in the US. Given a period of transition US companies are in a position to tap the added demand as more cars are made in the US.  Stellantis Stellantis formed from the merger of Chrysler, Fiat and Peugeot makes many of its cars overseas in Mexico and in the EU, and has considerable exposure. Toyota Toyota sales in 2024 were 2.3 million cars, with about 60% of the production in the US. Hyundai and Kia, Nissan Hyundai makes about 80% of the 840,000 cars it sells in the US in US plants. Hyundai plans to invest $21 billion in the US to make cars in the US including $5.8 billion for a steel plant in Louisiana. Other companies may follow Hyundai to Make in the USA. VW VW had plans for an expansion to make 590,000 cars. It has current  sales of about 400,000 cars in the US. Expansion at the Chattanooga plant or putting in another plant could help it make most of its cars in the US. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Medicaid covers 72 million people, add children care CHIP and it is 79 million, at cost of $872 billion. This is how it works in this WSJ report.

LyrArc Article Gist
More housing supply in the west and less in the northeastern US in 2025.

LyrArc Article Gist
A 2024 US International Trade Commission report by David Riker of the effects on imports of 25% US tariff shows a 75% reduction in imports and a 5% increase in US prices.  It would lead to large new investments in the US auto industry in different states. Hyundai recently announced a $21 billion investment plan in the US and building of a steel plant in Louisiana. General Motors will increase investments in the US and expand production. Other Japanese companies will make large investments for a presence in the US market.

"A new 25% tariff on U.S. imports from outside of North America would reduce vehicle imports by 73.9%, increase average prices of vehicles in the United States by 5.0%, and increase variable profits from domestic production by 5.2%." David Riker, USITC

 

LyrArc Article Gist
A 2024 Study by the International Trade Commission predicted that a 25% tariff on imports would reduce imports by almost 75 percent while increasing average prices in the US by about 5 percent.  As US companies have about half of the US auto market this would mean US auto manufacturers now have access to an additional 37 percent of the market by investing in auto plants in the US. US steel and aluminium plants will get additional investment to build these cars in the US. There is nothing new about this the US makers built plants in China. Germans, Japanese and Koreans took the US for stupid by keeping US cars out of their markets and thinking this could go on while by destroying US manufacturing it was  destroying America's middle class. It also gives the Germans BMW and VW, Subaru, the Japanese Toyota and Honda, Nissan, the South Koreans Kia and Hyundai, Chinese makers of EV's the option to Make in the USA and build plants invest in US manufacturing.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT plans for 25% tariff on all imported cars goes into effect April 2, 2025. It is intended to promote additional investment in the US auto industry, boosting jobs and wages in the US. These countries have now wrapped their behavior around national sentiment even though they very well know how the US has looked out for Europe, and especially China throughout cataclysmic events in the 20th century and the 21st century such as foreign occupation and failures in modernization. By 2015 the US which had given Europe the Marshall Plan and helped Japan rebuild from the ashes of World War II, South Korea rebuild from the devastation of the Korean war, and China rebuild after the failed industrialization experiments of the 1960's and 1970's, was now facing nations that only saw this as a One Way Street, making the US look stupid and showing a degree of irresponsible behaviour on fentanyl, drug and migrant trafficking  by Canada Mexico and China that has few parallels in history. The narrative from the US is that the US allowed Europe, Japan and South Korea, and Mexico as a manufacturing base for these countries 25 years since the 1970's when Japanese Toyota vehicles made inroads into the US market to help these countries recover, a post Marshall Plan benefit given to Europe and Asia. During 1995-2015 a series of weak administrations Clinton-Bush-Obama allowed the US manufacturing base to decline under a falsely premised globalization that served US financial interests but hurt US manufacturing towns and communities across the country.  This means BMW, VW cars imported from Germany, Subaru, Toyota, Nissan, Honda cars from Japan, Hyundai and Kia cars from South Korea, Chinese EV vehicles, and cars made in Mexico for Asian and European makers, all will face this tariff. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Cactus to Clouds ascent near Palm Springs, California. From cactus on the floor of the area to manzanita and oak, and up to pine forest near the top at 10,000 feet, the trail hike can be done in sections or a full hike to the top.

LyrArc Article Gist
Committing to staying social is a key part of retiring. David Richter, professor at Free University of Berlin, says that we have solid proof that first social contacts are reduced, then cognition declines.

Other activity that aids healthy retirement-

Being open to new experiences, pivot from one part of life to another

Volunteer work

Do something creative or novel

LyrArc Article Gist
Efforts to bring the two sides together for ceasefire succeed for Black Sea but hit snags along the way. Russia wanting to get sanctions lifted on it's Agricultural Bank to lift grain and fertilizer exports. A separate deal on not attacking energy infrastructure was negotiated.  Fundamentally NATO needed to be reconstituted at the end of the Cold War. Russia's apparent weakness was temporary as it converted to a market economy from the Soviet model. It's GDP is not a correct representation of it's capabilities and need for respect as an advanced European economy. With US-Russian cooperation nothing like Syria and Venezuelan disasters would have happened disrupting the fabric of American and European democratic systems. Russian conditions include ones that were clear from the early days of the war. Ukraine joining NATO threatens Russian security. That this was not to be allowed. And Ukraine to relinquish territory now controlled by Russia in Crimea and in Ukraine's east. DJT in the US has ruled out joining NATO for Ukraine. These territories have been integrated into Russia and it is unlikely that this would change so that continuation of the war after so many lives are lost doesn't make sense. Europeans particular Baltic Republics and Poland are concerned about Russian intentions- this too is not going to change by continuation of the war. It can be addressed by putting in concrete safeguards. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Business looks for taxes to be tackled first before tariffs. DJT policy sets it the other way in second term tariffs first, then taxes. Tariffs are about fentanyl flows and stopping illegal migrant drug trafficking, for investment in US manufacturing and fair trade, in the DJT second term. To get a sense of what discussion is taking place. Former VP Pence and officials in the DJT first term debate with Scott Bessent at Treasury on policy- Former VP Pence says trade has lifted America's standard of living, but it ignores the loss of manufacturing base America needs for supply chain security and for its national security, and for jobs that maintain the standard of living. Treasury's Scott Bessent said in a podcast- "VP Pence's  ‘let them eat flat screens economic policy’ isn’t what people want. They don’t want baubles from China.” "The American dream is more than the access to cheap goods."   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT Commerce Department restricts access to US technology to Chinese defense companies. Inspur a server maker and Sugon supercomputer maker are added to the list limiting access. The goal is to restrict access to technology for defense applications including hypersonic weapons. This goes further than the Biden administration.

Export controls don't always work when Chinese companies control ownership in American companies as shown in this example in WSJ for Inspur Corp.

"American technology should never be used against the American people,” -Jeffrey Kessler,  head of the US Commerce department’s Bureau of Industry and Security.

LyrArc Article Gist
US Typhoon land based missile systems installed in Luzon in the Philippines have longer range 1200 miles and shorter range missiles, and capabilities for intercepting hypersonic missiles. These were installed by the Biden administration and are being continued under DJT. The Typhon system is seen as part of working with allies in the Indo-Pacific as China has installed its own missile systems in the Pacific. Japan and India are developing their own missile defense systems using their own technologies.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mexico sends 80% of its exports to the US, and China a significant $439 billion in additional exports to US, which makes it incredible that for so long it did not take effective action to stop fentanyl flows, and Mexico allowed migrant trafficking across it's borders through 2016-2024. Even in the face of this becoming an explosive issue in the US with DJT elected in 2016 and the Border Wall being built. A silent but still existing in plain sight idea that the US would tolerate such flows became part of the culture in media outlets in the US and Europe and China and other parts of the world, even when there was a storm of discontent building about manufacturing shipped overseas hurting communities in the US since 2010, with added burden of safety endangered in these neighborhoods from fentanyl, drugs and illegal migrants. What worsened this situation and pain in the US was the idea that somehow it was the US's fault, an incomprehensible disdain for the US, US that enabled the modernization of China, Mexico, and Canada's economies. China sends $439 billion in exports more than the US does to China (US exports $143 billion China $582 billion in 2024). It is only surface presentation of indignation of face saving that these trading partners are showing when the real facts point to an extraordinary and incomprehensible disdain for the US as a nation in decline. There is a feeling in parts of Europe of American disdain for  Europe, without mention of the disdain for the US in Europe, China, Mexico and Canada and other parts of the world. Particularly disdain for neglected communities in the US that have suffered for far too long under previous administrations of Clinton-Bush-Obama with shipping of manufacturing and jobs overseas and inaction on drugs and illegal migrant flows. The EU Canada retaliatory approach has not worked. When DJT proposed doubling the tariffs imposed by US in the face of Canada EU retaliatory steps, the EU and Canada pulled back. Part of the reason is that in the case of Canada it is an economy one tenth the size of the US. The other is that there are real concerns on the US side that Canada EU are not playing fairly in trade. And Canada, Mexico, China, have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A Vance chat with Hegseth on Signal encrypted App with privacy accidentally draws in a journalist at Atlantic magazine Jeffrey Goldberg. Details are disclosed which include references to the Europeans as "free loaders."

LyrArc Article Gist
South Korea was one of the poorest countries in the world after the Korean war when the program of adoption was developed. It will now be handled by a government agency.

LyrArc Article Gist
Signal is encrypted end to end, yet security requires more than that, security requiring care taken by the user himself in how he uses it.

LyrArc Article Gist
Palava 5000 acre experimental model town near Mumbai, India, - minimal AC designed.