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Apple reports a slowdown in iPhone sales, with a less than 1 percent in increase in sales, for fiscal first quarter ending Dec. 26, 2015, over the prior year quarter. Revenue is expected to decline by 11% for the quarter ending in March 2016, over the prior year, first such decline in 13 years. Analysts say Apple will have to reduce gross margins of about 40% to increase sales. Apple CFO Maestri says Apple increased prices in some markets because of the strong dollar. When the stronger dollar is excluded from results for the quarter ending Dec. 26, 2015, sales revenue increased by 8% over prior year quarter, according to Apple. As Apple slows down its shares financial performance is stalled at about $100. Apple tried to present a different picture now that China sales are slowing down- it said that users had "engaged" with 1 billion Apple devices whether iPhone, iPad, Mac, or Apple TV, in the last 90 days, by downloading an app, song or movie. These services geneated $5.5 billion in revenues for the quarter ending in December, a 15% increase over prior year quarter....

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The shift to finding new drugs for cancer. Pfizer has a development team of 10000 researchers in one location near San Diego, California, to develop new drugs for cancer even though some experts say the search for cancer drugs is devilishly complicated. The causes of cancer at the molecular level are complicated and vary even from person to person for the same cancer. Says one expert this also raises questions about the benefit to people as a large amount of resources are shifted to areas like cancer that affect fewer people than other diseases, and where the existing drugs have only prolonged life marginally, in some cases even as low as a few months at a huge cost of thousands of dollars. Tarceva for pancreatic cancer for example only prolongs life by 12 days at a cost of $3500 per month. 860 cancer drugs are being tested in clinical trials according to the trade group of the pharmaceutical industry. This is more than twice the number for heart disease and stroke, and nearly twice the number for AIDS and all other infdectious diseases combined, and nearly twice the number for Alzheimier's and all neurological dieases combined....

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Mariano Rajoy, leader of the Partido Popular, becomes the new prime minister of Spain, as his party wins 186 seats in the 350 member parliament. The Socialist party of outgoing prime minister Zapatero won 110 seats, which is down from the 169 seats it had in the previous parliament. The Socialists won elections in 2004 and 2008, when the Spanish economy was growing at 3%. This gives Rajoy and the Partido Popular an absolute majority in parliament; which it will need to take stronger measures than were taken by the Zapatero administration to resolve the debt situation with the cajas savings banks, and make other changes to get the economy growing again. Rajoy told the Spanish people that Spain needed to make a "common effort" to face the "most difficult economic situation that Spain has faced in the past 30 years." Referring to the general feeling in Spain that in the waning days of the Zapatero administration Spain had appeared to have no voice in the EU negotiations, Rajoy said: Spain's voice "needs to be respected in Brussels. We will stop being a problem and instead form part of the solution." ...

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The New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo filed a civil fraud lawsuit against Ernst & Young LLP. Cuomo wrote in the complaint that "Ernst & Young substantially assisted Lehman Brothers, now bankrupt, to engage in a massive accounting fraud." The suit says Ernst & Young ignored warnigs from Lehman employees and from its own staff about the improper transactions. Lehman shifted $50 billion in assets off its balance sheet to foreign banks at critical financial reporting periods with a promise to buy back the securities at a premium price a few days later. With the cash held in the meantime, Lehman would pay down other debts, appearing to have less debt and give investors a better impression about the firm's financial condition than was really the case. Lehman and Bear Stearns were the most highly leveraged investment banks during the financial crisis of 2008. The unraveling of Lehman led to cracks in the world financial system because of interrelationships in the banking system. By taking this action the New York Attorney General's office is taking an important step to prevent the recurrence of such systemic crises from buildup of excessive leverage in the financial system....

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Shiller says policy is captured and communicated by metaphors, the most effective being belt tightening for a family. However what works for a family does not work for a country in the same way, especially if not accompanied by other measures and implemented in a strict manner without looking at the real situation. Better suggests Shiller, and more real is the metaphor of "winter on the family farm," where people work to do other chores than planting and harvesting, because a lot of other things need to be done and this is a good time to do it. This would include cleaning up the place, fixing the farm and the barn, fixing machinery, building fences. The farm's members pay a tax in terms of donated labor which goes to do all the work needed and helps the farm's productiveness as the weather changes. Similiarly the Salant-Paul Samuelson balanced budget theorem from the FDR days shows an increase in national output by the amount of a tax, such as the one proposed in France by president Hollande; that would then be invested in hiring more teachers (the labor) and investing in education infrastructure....

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It is not clear how China's president Jinping's support for the idea of "China Dream," -of China as a world power on a level with the U.S.- should be interpreted. China will increase its defense budget and continue its efforts to be the dominant power in its region, even as the U.S. and Japan begin to build closer ties in the Pacific. Is it simply a new assertiveness for its rights in relation to territorial disputes with Japan, and a continuation of a policy of peaceful development of earlier leaders. The move could also be an effort to build close ties with the military as the new leadership of Jinping-Keqiang prepares to make major changes in the economy. A speech in Dec. 2012 to Communist party officials in Guangdong province by Jinping, on how the lack of unity with the military led to the collapse of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev, could throw light on the thinking. In a few days an old party was gone, as he put it. This also follows the Bo Xilai episode which involved contacts with the military and the risks of division in the military and political leadership....

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Changes to Venezuela's constitution planned by Chavez are likely to go through, an attempt to entrench his idea of a socialist revolution. Apparently it has the support of the working classes and the poor and rural areas, but the educated elite continues to shun Chavez's moves. The polarization does not help the country's development. As long as oil prices are high this works well, but a drop in revenues could make it difficult to finance the largesse such as 6 hour work days and other efforts to simply pour money to reduce poverty, without building employment in sectors of the economy other than oil. The Persian Gulf countries are facing rising population, and have gone through prior experience where even high oil revenues followed by dropping oil prices have made it difficult to support social expenditures because of budget shortfalls. However whether other governments in Venezuela have done better in terms of development and building employment is also uncertain. Chavez simply alienates the educated elite. Yet considering Venezuela's historical polarization of classes and politics could things really be expected to be different in a power shift is a question mark. Consider also that Simon Bolivar got his start here. ...

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The NYT editorial saying that it was Republican ideology and interest in turning over the financial institutions back to private investors as quickly as possible that played against the sensible idea of the government injecting capital directly in exchange for ownership stakes that it would eventually give up to the private sector. The Gordon Brown Plan in the UK amid a worsening global crisis may have turned Paulson and Bush's mind to favor a similiar approach but a lot of time has been wasted in the process, triggering a worldwide crisis of confidence from the US to countries that were for the first time making progress in reducing poverty like Brazil and India, and esssentially to all parts of the world. The failure to address the problem directly in this manner in the first instance right after the collapse of confidence in the early days of October, and the lack of a backup plan of this type instead of the complicated reverse auction buyout of securities backup plan of Paulson, may have already damaged a lot of institutions and with the fall of Lehman set off a crisis of confidence across financial markets worldwide. ...

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The Indian public from retired businessmen, farmers, students, and the press are coming out in support of anti-corruption leader Anna Hazare's call for effective legislation to control corruption of public officials in India. This comes after a number of corruption scandals and lack of action from the Congress government. The government's bill in parliament - introduced after pressure from public opinion- sets up an ombudsman or Lokpal agency, which would exclude from its jurisdiction the very public officials over whom it was meant to exercize oversight. Under the government's bill the prime minister, the public officials in the bureaucracy and the judiciary would be excluded. This has set up a confrontation with an increasingly exasperated public, with Hazare's protest fast in central New Delhi as the catalyst for protest across the country. The Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told parliament that he sees it as an issue of parliamentary sovereignty, as Hazare's protest is for a version of the bill that he has drafted to be adopted. But the public's sense is that Hazare is only responding with his own draft of the bill because of the government's effort to make only a token effort by not giving the anti-corruption body the powers it needs to function effectively. The response has brought thousands of demonstrators from around the country to Tihar jail where Hazare is being held by the government after his arrest. The situation is reminiscent of the protests against the British imperial government by Mohandas Gandhi, and in this sense has serious implicatons for how the country is governed. Corruption was prevalent in India during the days of the license Raj in the period 1950-1990 when business needed government permits in the closed economy of the Nehru period, and corruption existed in the bureaucracy in its delivery of public services. Since 1990 as the economy opened up and the growth rate increased corruption at all levels of government has in some ways increased and become embedded in the bureaucracy and government. This hurts the poor and the middle class the most, as corruption acts as a tax on the delivery of public services and infrastructure development, both badly needed in an emerging market country....

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President Moon Jae-In of South Korea will meet Mr. Kim of North Korea in a summit in late April after envoys from South Korea visited Pyongyang, North Korea, for 2 days of talks. The talks come against the background of the WInter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, where the 2 Koreas sent a joint team as part of reconciliation efforts.  North Korea agreed to denuclearize said a South Korean government statement after the talks, saying- "The North Korean side clearly stated its willingness to denuclearize. It made it clear that it would have no reason to keep nuclear weapons if the military threat to the North was eliminated and its security guaranteed." Working level discussions will be held before the Kim- Moon summit meeting and a hotline phone connection will be setup between the two leaders. A recent report in the WSJ shows China for the first time tightening sanctions on the North. Japan has joined the U.S. in taking a tough stand and its foreign minister said that the offer for abandonment of nuclear weapons has come before and North Korea has resumed its nuclear weapons development each time. U.S. experts say that security guarantees were offered by the Clinton administration, including in writing, but this has not prevented the North from moving ahead with its nuclear program. This is the first time Kim, 34 years, has met with senior envoys from the South since assuming power in 2011. The WInter Olympics in Pyeongchang with Mr Kim's sister attending and bringing an offer for a summit meeting, were the first such contacts in years between the 2 Koreas. The new offer comes with an offer to stop nuclear tests, yet leaves open the manufacture of fissile materials say experts. The U.S. and Japan are deeply skeptical and insist on complete and verifiable proof of abandonment of the nuclear program. ...

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Manjoo provides an informative account of why WhatsApp became popular. The site started out in 2009 as a mobile status updating app. The site's founders realized after its introduction that users were using it for sending texts without incurring SMS fees. After the initial cost of a data plan and a smart phone the band width used by thousands of messages is so small it costs pennies compared to a AT&T non-plan rate of 20 cents a minute. It is this pricing gap that opened up opportunities for WhatsApp as a messaging app that is practically free, 99 cents to sign up and 99 cents for the second year on. The founders were savvy to know that ads annoyed users and kept it ad free. And they made it fast and efficient to use which accounts for estimated 450 million users worldwide in 4-5 years since 2009.

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Theresa May, British prime minister tells BBC she feels a mixture of pride and disappointment about leaving 10 Downing Street in a few days. She feels a sense of "frustration" at not being able to put Brexit through and "underestimating" parliament. She is likely to be followed by Boris Johnson as the new prime minister.

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Airbus's plan to invest $600 million for a manufacturing plant in the U.S. state of Alabama. Airbus plans are to assemble the A320 models of single aisle planes at a new plant in the Mobile area in 2015. By 2018 the plant would make 50 planes annually including the planned shift to the "Neo" version of the A320 with new engines. Because the planes are priced in U.S. dollars manufacturing in the U.S. helps reduce the effects of currency fluctuations on Airbus's financial performance. Costs of manufacturing are similiar to that in Europe, according to Airbus executives, as final assembly is only 5% of the cost and about 40% of Airbus equipment for planes is manufactured in the U.S. But Airbus management has realized the importance that final assembly plays in perceptions about where the plane is made, with these perceptions playing a part in getting a bigger share of the market.

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Treasury yields went down as demand for treasurys went back up mostly from money market funds with nervous investors. Still it will be a few days befor the full effect of the Fed's action can be seen.

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Gujarat has a mortality rate of 6.2% compared to 2.8% for India. In total number of confirmed cases Gujarat comes fourth after Maharashtra, Tamilnadu and Delhi, with 21,500 cases. Most of the deaths are in the city of Ahmedabad and mostly at the city's large Civil Hospital. This report in the BBC says the deaths can be attributed to the reluctance of people in the city to go to the Government Civil Hospital because the quality of care is not good. Many patients come to the Civil Hospital only after failing to find a bed at other private hospitals. This means the patients condition is getting worse as he is not admitted rightaway but days afterwards when his condition has deteriorated. The weak health infrastructure of the state and the lack of quality care at the Ahmedabad Government Civil Hospital say experts has led to increasing number of deaths in Gujarat from coronavirus. Gujarat has been known for its improvements in transportation and roads infrastructure. This has not happened with health infrastructure. This situation is being seen also in China where not enough money is being invested for quality health care. Ahmedabad's Government Civil Hospital is one of the largest in Asia providing low cost care to a large population. ...

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UK economy declines 0.3% in April 2025 as exports to US decline. The UK is one of the few countries that reached a trade agreement with the US. Also important to note is that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the 1st quarter of 2025. The US tariffs are a negotiating strategy says Treasury Secretary Bessent to get countries  including the EU and China to have a level playing field in trade with the US, and not take the US for a ride. This has some costs but they are temporary and we are all better off that world trade can now be on a firmer footing than the imbalances of before. Bessent for instance told members of the US Congress in the last 2 days that US inflation is actually 0.1% and has come down, the 10 year yield in the US bond markets has come down, and the US is managing this transition without cost increases. He said Walmart had increased prices after tariffs, Amazon and Home Depot had not, and he sees American buying from sellers like Amazon and Home Depot. The British economy will also benefit with the certainty that it now has a clear trade agreement under fair rules that will promote bilateral trade with the US. ...

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Damian Paletta of the Washington Post says that credit goes to Gary Cohn a former Goldman Sachs president, and head of the president's National Economic Council for the way he has quietly built up a group of leading experts on major initiatives of the Trump administration such as tax reform, infrastructure plans. Compared to the infighting and other problems in the first 100 days of the Trump presidency, Cohn is credited with building a core of ideas and experts that bring Trump more to the centre and with the prospect of winning Democratic party support. He has helped shift the president to set up a more balanced approach, less confrontational with China and not calling China a currency manipulator, getting support for the Export Import Bank, and more receptive to the Federal Reserve led by Janet Yellen. This report says an alliance of moderates is centering around Adviser Jared Kushner, Cohn, and in other reports Tillerson in foreign affairs is seen as being part of this group. On NAFTA the president has moved to a less confrontational approach with Mexico, which has helped the Mexican peso recover and improved prospects for the Mexican economy.  On infrastructure new ideas to find financing are needed and a plan to tax carbon emissions is intended to draw Democratic support as well as provide some of the funding. About $200 billion in taxpayer money and $800 billion from private investors is being discussed at the National Economic Council. This report says Cohn suffered from dyslexia in childhood, graduated from American University, and joined Goldman Sachs in an unconventional way. He shares a passion for deal making with president Trump, yet at the same time values the views of experts he has brought to formulate concrete plans for the way ahead. About 25 experts with extensive experience in government helped put together new tax changes, infrastructure plans, and international trade deal plans. His predecessor at the NEC, Gene Sperling, gives him credit for quietly pulling together the experts and doing the planning that the Trump administration now depends on. ...

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A nuclear plant on the left bank of the Dnieper (Dnipro) river in Ukraine under Russian control in the early days of the war and close to Ukraine on the other side of the river is facing increased shelling. The war is shifting to southern Ukraine as Ukraine launches an offensive to retake the city of Kherson lost at the beginning of the war.

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Going outdoors for sunlight which gives Vitamin D and getting exercize is becoming more important today with the coronavirus. Getting out to a park, green spaces or places to walk or run is increasingly important for maintaining good health after a long lockdown. Sunlight adds to our immune system and brings many benefits for mind and body as shown here.  

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Acquisitions by Siemens in health care business, even as it gets $11.4 billion euros for its automotive business sold to Continental. Siemens acquired Dade Behring Holdings a maker of medical diagnostic products based in Deerfield, Illinois, for $7 billion.

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This WSJ story provides a fascinating look at how Italy planned for too long, but failed to finally execute the final step of using the submersible steel floodgates that were already built to tackle just the kind of flooding that happened recently.  Problems include the use of submersible steel floodgates that would go back under water  after use in a flood, causing an additional complication to building the floodgates. The city itself was not entirely behind the plan so that execution was delayed. The politics and corruption added additional delays that astonishingly delayed the plan for over 10 years. About 80% of Venice was flooded with waters rising 6 feet above normal levels on November 12, 2019. It is hard to believe that 78 yellow steel barriers stayed on the seabed instead of blocking the three points at which water could enter from the sea into Venice. Most of the area has normal land barriers and the steel gates were designed to block water from entering at the smaller points that separate land barriers. It is also unbelievable that the plan started after a bad flood in 1966, construction beginning in 2003 after approval by over 12 public bodies, expert panels and courts on the complicated design. Costs went up as years passed from $1.7 billion to $5.5 billion. Ordinary Italians say Rotterdam has similar problems and has dams and no flooding, that the underwater design of the gates did not make sense just for aesthetics. Some experts say the underwater design doomed the project by making it costly and difficult, bureaucratic delays did the rest. The longer the delays and higher the cost the faster it eroded support in Venice and Italy, leading to this improbable result of building the flood gates with the underwater design, testing them but not making it operational in the final step, and not authorizing the use on November 11, 2019. The gates were in disuse astonishingly for so long that rust was discovered at one point.  Venice is now losing much of the population near its canals with only 50,000 remaining from a one time population of 171,000. The latest flood damage is over $1 billion and inexplicable after so much effort building the 74 yellow floodgates under water. ...

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DW.com takes a deeper look at the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, an autonomous region of Azerbaijan now populated and controlled by ethnic Armenians. It has grown rapidly in the last decade at around 10% annual growth and 17% in 2017 with an influx of ethnic Armenians who have settled in the region with its higher average incomes. Karabakh has a large mining industry which provides employment for Armenians moving into Karabakh.  During the 1920's Azerbaijan and Armenia were part of the Soviet Republics which lasted till 1991. The Soviets made Karabakh part of Azerbaijan SSR with considerable autonomy. Since 1991 several wars have taken place with the largely Armenian population declaring itself independent of Azerbaijan.  Azerbaijan is three fifths Shiite and one third Sunni with close ties to its southern neighbor Iran, leading to efforts by Iran to mediate the conflict. There are social and political overtones for the conflict. Azerbaijan oil exports have been hit hard by the drop in the oil price and drop in global oil demand. Armenia has seen remittances from its 11 million Armenians living overseas drop by about 40%. Both countries face endemic corruption. Azerbaijan get 90% of export revenues from oil which is 40% of GDP. EBRD estimates exports fell by 25% in the first quarter and GDP will decline by 3% this year. Strict lockdown has also hurt the economy hard. Armenia expects a decline of 3.5% in GDP in 2020. Armenia is trying to tackle corruption with reforms since the Velvet Revolution in 2018. The conflict is a distraction from the economic and political situation, says Caucasus region expert Sylvia Stober. It could be politicians making a point as economic and social conditions deteriorate, with outside influence. Turkey has backed intervention in Libya and now supports Azerbaijan a Muslim neighbor.  Russia has a defense pact with its Orthodox Christian neighbor Armenia. In 2018 a short war lasted only 4 days when Russia intervened. This time Russia which has a defense pact with Armenia is looking to have Armenia join its Eurasia Economic Union. Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan looks to Europe for closer ties. Russia supplies both warring parties in this conflict and acts as a mediator in a ceasefire. Outside influence is aggravating the conflict which has now displaced about half the population in Karabakh.   ...

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Sabine Kinkartz of the DW.com looks at the way in which Olaf Scholz achieved what was seen as impossible through patience, grit, and hard work in the face of adversity. SPD was seeing poll numbers of as low as 15% in the spring of 2021, just months before the election. Scholz believed in his party's ideas for the renewal of Germany, remained undeterred even after losing an election to lead the SPD to Esken and Walter-Borjans in 2019, when Esken and Walter-Borjans reinforced the idea that the SPD should stand for workers and families, what it always stood for. Scholz was put forward as candidate by Esken and Walter-Borjans in 2021 with conviction. By Spring 2021 it was clear that Scholz had achieved the impossible, getting the conservative Merkel and the CDU, with instincts against borrowing in all situations, to agree to a huge aid package for Germany to fight the pandemic, and a huge aid package for the European Union to fight the pandemic.  That Scholz remained undeterred in his campaign by low poll numbers and went on campaigning on the basis of convictions about what is right for Germans and Germany, comes from deeper convictions from his days growing up in the Hamburg youth wing of Social Democrats in the years following SPD's Wily Brandt and the post war recovery. Germany's most remembered leader after Adenauer, Willy Brandt was leader of the SPD Social Democrats from 1964 to 1987, and chancellor 1969-74. Both Adenauer and Brandt are respected some 50 years later in the world and in Germany. That Germany is going back to this tradition of leadership after the period of the Merkel years when Germany was held back, brings new hope to Europe and the world. In allying with the Greens under a younger generation leaders Scholz saw the promise of an opportunity to tackle problems of climate change and investment in infrastructure together. Both parties see borrowing as essential to invest big in the future. Scholz message to Germans, Europeans and the world is - "Big jobs, but our country is capable of doing them." A message sent out from the US by president Biden, and from Asia by the Indian prime minister. ...