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Even when the recovery occurs and inventories get replaced gorwth will be slow, as deleveraging process takes many years.
05/28/2009
Mr. Mecksworth, chief economist at MAPI says even when arecovery happens it will mean slow growth as companies will be saving money and paying off debt for many years to come.
Linked Articles
Once a Key to Recovery, Detroit Adds to Pain
New York Times 06/01/2009
Sharper Drop Is Forecast for Factory ProductionWall Street Journal 05/28/2009
The rapid structural shift in employment to new industries and fields may create high unemployment even as millions of vacancies go unfilled.
04/30/2009
The Labor Departments JOLT statistics for job openings shows over 3 million job vacancies. The reason for this is the mismatch in qualifications and the speed with which industries are downsizing, and the shift to new industries and fields away from banking, retail, construction and autos. This makes new initiatives in retraining and government cost sharing to enable companies to hire and retrain super critical. Germany has some initiatives lkke this.
Linked Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
Help Wanted: Why That Sign's BadBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
What the U.S. and other eurozone countries can learn from Germany in reducing unemployment (1)
04/30/2009
The Harz labor market reforms under the Schroeder administration helped Germany reduce unemployment after over a decade of high unemployment folowing reunification.
Linked Articles
Germany reaps rewards of entitlement cuts - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/20/2011
Learning Labor Market Lessons from GermanyBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
The hidden virtues of Hillary Clinton- a different approach to foreign conflicts
04/30/2009
Hillary's adoption of the Dutch military's model for the U.S. role in Afghanistan and following up on the work of South Asian envoy Holbrooke, who settled the Balkan conflict with peace accords under Bill Clinton.
Linked Articles
Against Odds, Path Opens Up for U.S.-Taliban Talks
New York Times 01/11/2012
U.S. Takes Dutch Military as Role Model in Afghan OperationWall Street Journal 04/30/2009
U.S. president Obama and Hispanic immigrants- promises, hope and reality 2008-2015
04/09/2009
Linked Articles
Obama to Push Immigration Bill Despite the Risks
New York Times 04/09/2009
The Giant U.S. Deportation Machine Runs AmokWall Street Journal 10/28/2013
By achieving US goal for stimulus spending and European goals for regulatory reform the G20 summit has achieved a lot for all countries.
04/03/2009
The US agrees to the European demands for strict global regulation, and the Europeans agree to stimulus committment of $850 billion through the IMF for emerging countries, making the summit a success.
Linked Articles
Steven Pearlstein - A Rare Triumph of Substance at the Summit
Washington Post 04/03/2009
Conceding U.S. Lapses, Obama Resists New Bank RulesNew York Times 04/03/2009
The crisis in Eastern Europe and other developing countries and the G20 policy mandate to the IMF to support social help and stimulus spending
03/28/2009
The G-20 mandate that the IMF be the conduit for funds to help emerging countries, with the policy direction that an additional $850 billion be used not only to fix finances, but also emphasize social goals, and help people in these countries cope with the crisis. This is of great help to countries in difficulty, and assurance that the social fabric in these countries will not be torn apart as has happened before, and that people will get the necessary assistance.
Linked Articles
Steven Pearlstein - A Rare Triumph of Substance at the Summit
Washington Post 04/03/2009
Eastern Europe and the Financial CrisisWall Street Journal 03/28/2009
The Money multiplier is broken and the Fed's infusions are ending up in bank reserves.
03/20/2009
Banks have $679 billion in reserves, says Gongloff, and this matches the $653 billion that the Fed added to the money supply in this period. With the money multiplier broken the money is simply adding to the buildup of reserves at the banks.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Best Check on Inflation: Broken BanksWall Street Journal 03/20/2009
Ted Truman, a seasoned veteran, helps Geithner with the G20 meeting and calls for bigger stimulus spending.
03/13/2009
Ted Truman is aforceful advocate for bigger stimulus spending at the upcoming G20 meeting. In a memo to Geithner he has toughened up the US position on this in advance of the G20 meeting in the UK on April 2, 2009.
Linked Articles
Split on a Cure for Recession, Leaders Try Three Efforts
New York Times 03/15/2009
Geithner Hires a Seasoned 'Temp'Wall Street Journal 03/13/2009
To just be where America was in 1999, household debt has to drop 30%!
03/11/2009
The movement among Americans like Mr Bailey in Boise, Idaho, to get debt free, is going to be as big a factor as the toxic assets at banks, and foreclosuresin housing, in the fundamental changes that are going on in the economy that will last for years, decades. These are conservative lending, government lending to make up, savings, less consumption and scrapping or sale of unneeded factory capacity (plant) to developing countries.
Linked Articles
Deleveraging: It's Not Over Till It's Over
Wall Street Journal 03/11/2009
Frugality Forged in Today's Recession Has Potential to Outlast ItWall Street Journal 04/06/2009
Cornell's Frank points out that savings may be good for America once they are chanelled into investment.
02/15/2009
For this to happen some of the excess household debt from the number 96% of GDP, that household debt in the USA has reached, has to be shaved off. This is happening as Americans are shifting to becoming debt free in their finances. This affects consumption through the paradox of thrift. But says Prof. Frank this is OK, as the government steps in in the meantime to give the boost to the economy, till consumers recover from debt. Future savings can then be channelled into new productive investment for modernization's next phase, just as China and India are doing.
Linked Articles
Imbalance in Nations' Savings Clouds Forecasts for Recovery
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2009
Go Ahead and Save. Let the Government Spend.New York Times 02/15/2009
America's situation may be worse than Japan's because of the combination of household debt and toxic assets.
02/12/2009
Household debt at 96% of GDP is an additional problem that America faces in addition to toxic assets, that may make the American crisis worse than Japan's lost decade or two.
Linked Articles
Economist 02/12/2009
Frugality Forged in Today's Recession Has Potential to Outlast ItWall Street Journal 04/06/2009
Vaccine Maker Pfizer and the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Compensation Program.
01/26/2009
The limits to litigation risk for vaccines is one reason for the attractiveness and growing investment in the vaccines development. Its also what Pfizer hopes to develop with the Wyeth acquisition for $68 billion.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/23/2009
Pfizer Agrees to Pay $68 Billion for Rival WyethNew York Times 01/26/2009
S. Korea's second household debt binge in the 15 years since the 1997 financial crisis
05/18/2009
The first period of rising household debt ocurred with the credit card boom when the government promoted consumer spending as a way to stimulate the economy. By 2003 this became a serous problem and the government rescued a credit card issuer in 2003. Household debt is again a major problem in 2012 with the increasing number of companies in financial lending that are not regulated.
Linked Articles
Notes From Another Credit Card Crisis
New York Times 05/18/2009
S. Korea tries to curb mounting debt and avert a crisis - The Washington PostWashington Post 07/09/2012
What America can learn from the German example for government help to retrain workers and share costs to hire and retrain.
04/30/2009
The need for initiatives in this area are supercritical to handle the economic recovery correctly because of deepseated changes in the labor markets. In the absence of this high unemployment will coexist with millions of vacancies because of amismatch of qualifications. A lack of worker mobility. because of housing problems compounds this situation.
Linked Articles
Help Wanted: Why That Sign's Bad
BusinessWeek 04/30/2009
Learning Labor Market Lessons from GermanyBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
Nobel Laureate Michael Spence offers solutions to the job crises and high unemployment facing the U.S.
04/30/2009
Linked Articles
Why the Old Jobs Aren't Coming Back
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2011
Learning Labor Market Lessons from GermanyBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
With American households working down debt of 130% of disposable income a consumer led recovery is unlikely.
04/23/2009
The debt load for American households is close to the total output of the American economy in 2008. The disappearance of easy credit, the rising unemployment, and reduced hours of work, and lower or stagnant wage levels, are serious constraints to consumer spending.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
On Borrowed Time: Consumer-Led RecoveryWall Street Journal 06/10/2009
Is Erdogan missing the lesson of 2009 elections- the AK Party depends on economic growth for voter support
04/04/2009
Linked Articles
A wake-up call from the voters
Economist 04/04/2009
Turkey's Economy Surged 11% in QuarterWall Street Journal 07/01/2011
Interest rate swap contracts sold by banks to the city of Detroit in 2005 and the "kiko" derivative contracts sold by banks to exporters in S. Korea before the 2008 global financial crisis
04/03/2009
The huge losses suffered by Detroit and by exporters in S. Korea and how the issues raised were handled in the two places. What takes precedence fairness or contracts, how much of a contract has to be intelligible to the investor and the broader question of why banks needed to write such contracts or conduct business in this way which could hurt their reputation. An example is given by Floyd Norris of NYT where Bankers Trust reputation suffered badly in 1994 for selling such contracts to P&G.
Linked Articles
New York Times 04/03/2009
'Safe Harbor' in Bankruptcy Upended in Detroit CaseNew York Times 12/23/2013
Peter Eavis thinks the Geithner plan isn't based on sound logic.
03/23/2009
If only the confidence and liquidity were an issue then maybe the Geithner Public Private Investment Program plan might work. But says Eavis, the underlying price structure for these mortgage securities is gone with this crisis,so that the recovery in their price for banks to avoid huge losses is going to be elusive. He cites Credit Sights which estimates losses of US banks through 2010 of $250- $450 billion.
Linked Articles
Treasury’s Got Bill Gross on Speed Dial
New York Times 06/21/2009
Geithner's Gamble Needs SpeculatorsWall Street Journal 03/23/2009
As capital markets shun small biotech startups large drug companies raise money for acquisitios and mergers.
03/16/2009
Drug companies have $155 billion they plan to use for mergers and acquisitions and are tapping the bond markets for funds. Meantime small biotech startups are running short of cash in large numbers. Will this squeeze innovation and new products as startups wither and the mergers run into problems?
Linked Articles
Drug Firms Bet Big on High-Risk Deals
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2009
Cash Dries Up for Biotech Drug FirmsWall Street Journal 03/16/2009
Child hunger in India and India's Food Security legislation in August 2013
03/13/2009
Food expert Rieff cites figures showing child malnutrition at over 40% in India for children under the age of 5 in 2009. A World Food Program report says 230 million people in India are hungry each year. India's Food Security legilation has to be seen in this context. Rieff says India is in danger of losing its demographic dividend as a result of child malnutrition. All developing countries can learn from each other and their programs to reduce child malnutrition, improve health care and vaccinations, and introduce healthy food and sanitary practices. Programs are in place in Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, India, and China.
Linked Articles
As Indian Growth Soars, Child Hunger Persists
New York Times 03/13/2009
India's Lower House Passes Food Bill to Help PoorWall Street Journal 08/26/2013
"So am I", the President responds to special interests gearing up to thwart his plans to revamp the economy.
03/01/2009
My message to them, is this: "So am I", with that remark in his radio address Obama says he knows special interests are gearing up for a fight to prevent needed change in education oppportunities that otherwise would close the door on the middle class, on health care coverage that otherwise will leave in addition to the 46 million not covered an additional number of that magnitude uncovered as unemployment rises and insurance premiums become unaffordable, and on energy that leaves energy policy to oil and gas companies that have done little to promote conservation or new technologies to reduce demand amid mushrooming global demand.
Linked Articles
Obama Calls His Budget Needed Change
New York Times 03/01/2009
Liberal Groups Are Flexing New Muscle in Lobby WarsNew York Times 03/01/2009
How the Japanese experience in their banking crisis holds new lessons for America as it grapples with its own banking crisis.
02/13/2009
Experts who tackled the Japanese banking crisis say America is facing the same train wreck as politicians take ineffectual action in tackling the bad debt, and not until this bad debt is cleaned up will the broader economy recover.
Linked Articles
In Japan’s Stagnant Decade, Cautionary Tales for America
New York Times 02/13/2009
Ailing Banks May Require More Aid to Keep SolventNew York Times 02/13/2009
Robert Khuzami and the S.E.C.'s ambivalent enforcement mindset 2010-2012
02/10/2009
The lack of corrective acton that changes the leadership and culture at financial companies in the U.S. following the 2008 financial crisis. Where the action by enforcement agencies has required admitting wrongdoing as part of the settlement, the changes in leadership and culture have put the companies on a new path to renewal. Barclays under one of the respected names in British finance, David Walker, is a recent example.
Linked Articles
Top Enforcer at the S.E.C. Steps Down
New York Times 02/10/2009
SEC's Top Cop Oversaw Deutsche CDOsWall Street Journal 04/24/2010
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